Coronavirus in the DC area – weekly update 66

Colorized picture from California, 1918. Source: reddit

This is weekly update number 66 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) slightly increased to 446 new cases over the week. Last week it was 439 new cases. Twenty-four weeks ago it was 18,934 new cases.

Parts of Europe seem to be bringing the virus under control, but parts of Europe appear to be losing control. This varies widely by country. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, reported 907 new cases for yesterday. The UK (pop. 67.1 million) has had an upswing that seems to only be getting worse. They are reporting 29K new cases yesterday. Its high was 68K new cases on 8 January. It was down below 2K cases a day a month ago. France (pop. 67.4 million) has the fourth highest number of reported cases in the world (after U.S., India and Brazil). They reported for France 4K new cases yesterday. The new case count yesterday for Spain has increased to 14K for yesterday and is back on the rise. One wonders why Italy has gotten it under control but the U.K. and Spain are again losing control of the situation. As for Germany it is only 713 new cases yesterday and for Russia it is up to 23K new cases a day. Keep in mind, these are daily rates. They do add up over the course of a week. The U.S. (population 331.9 million) had 24K new cases yesterday, which is twice as high as it was last week. Our high was 300K new cases on 2 January. In Asia and the Pacific the number of reported cases remains low: China (58), Japan (1,689), South Korea is rising (1,212), Taiwan (27, after peaking at 723 on 5/22), Vietnam is rising (1,029 !) which is their highest reported daily rate ever, Singapore (10), Australia (30) and New Zealand (5). Again, these are daily rates. Japan’s rate is pretty high for a country about to host the Olympics. Australia, which has a low rate, are still cancelling potentially spreader events like the Australian Grand Prix.

All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of today, 10:22 AM:  Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….49,347….49,417….1,142
Arlington, VA……………..237,521..…..15,301….15,321…….258
Alexandria VA……………160,530…….11,882…..11,900…….139
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795.……77,136.…77,210….1,117
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772.……….430.…..…430………..8
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.……….572.………574………20
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850…….28,097.….28,100…….283
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011…….45,792.….45,847…….508
Manassas…………………..41,641..……..4,315.…..4,317………48
Manassas Park………….…17,307….…..1,221.…..1,222………11
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……..11,537.…11,555………82
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144……..2,154…….2,158………25
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……71,171.…71,251…..1,626
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……85,509….85,608…..1,597
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…404,464…404,910…..6,864

The Mortality Rate is 1.70%. There were 9 fatalities in the last week compared to 446 new cases. This is a mortality rate of 2.02%.  The population known to have been infected is 7.55% or one confirmed case for every 13 people.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had only 132 new cases yesterday. Last week it was 148 cases. Twenty-three weeks ago it was 4,707.

Dare County, North Carolina (pop. 37K), a beach area in the outer banks, has had 2,201 cases (2,185 last week) and 10 deaths.

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Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.
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Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.
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His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) , The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019), The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2023), Aces at Kursk (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024), Hunting Falcon: The Story of WWI German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024) and The Siege of Mariupol (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2024).
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Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

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