Schedule for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022

Below is the provisional schedule for the first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). We currently have set up two conference rooms for use and are issuing out a call for presentations. We do have 22 presentations scheduled by 16 speakers, including four or five by me (this could get tiresome). We have slots available for at least another 13 presentations. Each slot is an hour long, so planning for a 45-minute presentation and 15 minutes of discussion. 

If we get more requests than that, my bias to it either rent a third conference room at the facility or to reduce some presentations to 20 minutes with 10 minutes of discussion. This would allow us to do two presentations in an hour slot. We are probably not going to turn away any quality presentations.

Anyhow, the current schedule is:

Schedule: Pike and Gallows Conference Center

Updated: 14 December 2021

 

Day 1: Analysis of Conventional Combat

0900 – 0930    Introductory remarks (new)                Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

0930 – 1030    Studying Combat (old)                       Dr. Shawn Woodford (TDI)

1030 – 1130    War by Numbers (old)                        Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

1130 – 1230    How Lanchester modelling fits the historical data

                                                                                    Dr. Paul R. Syms (Dstl)

1230 – 1400    Lunch

1400 – 1500    Research fitting Lanchester Models to Battle Data

                                                                                    Dr. Tom Lucas (NPS)

1500 – 1600    How Important are Superior Numbers?                     

Dr. David Kirkpatrick (University College London) – virtual?

1600 – 1700    Killing Captain Hindsight: Quantifying Chance in Military History

Dr. Niall MacKay (University of York)        

 

Evening (1900):          Group Dinner – Rangos

 

Day 2: Analysis of Unconventional Warfare

0900 – 1000    Iraq, Data, Hypotheses and Afghanistan (old)

Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

1000 – 1100    Estimating War Deaths (in Iraq)

Dr. Michael Spagat (Royal Holloway University of London)

1100 – 1200    Infantry Support Weapon                   Joe Follansbee (Col., USA, ret.) – ?

1200 – 1300    Lunch

1300 – 1400   

1400 – 1500   

1500 – 1600

1600 – 1700   

 

Evening (1900):          Group Dinner – BJs

 

Day 3: Other Analysis of Warfare

0900 – 1000    The Application of the Scientific Method to Military History

Clinton Reilly (Computer Strategies. Australia)

1000 – 1100    The Decline of War Since 1950        

Dr. Michael Spagat (Royal Holloway University of London)

1100 – 1200    Quantitative Risk Assessment in Military Decisions

                                                                           Dr. Douglas A. Samuelson (InfoLogix, Inc.)

1200 – 1300    Lunch

1300 – 1400    HA support for our Directorate of Land Warfare

Dr. Paul L. Syms (Dstl)

1400 – 1500    Quantitative Analysis of History of Direct Fire Weapons

                                                                                    Dr. Alexander Kott (ARL)

1500 – 1600    The Criticality of Resurrecting TDI & TNDM

                                                                                    Joe Follansbee (Col., USA, ret.)

1600 – 1700    The Future of TDI and work of the conference (new)

Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

 

Evening:          Happy hour  – Rangos and/or Hawk and Griffin 

 

Schedule: Einstein Conference Room

 

Day 1: Poster Room

Opened at 0800

 

Afternoon Day 1: Analysis of Conventional Combat

1400 – 1500   

1500 – 1600

1600 – 1700

1700 – 1800

 

Day 2: Analysis of Conventional Combat

0900 – 1000    A Statistical Analysis of Land Battles: What is Associated with Winning?

                                                                                    Dr. Tom Lucas (NPS)

1000 – 1100    The Combat Assessment Technique               William Sayers

1100 – 1200    Machine Learning the Lessons of History      Dr. Robert Helmbold – virtual

1200 – 1300    Lunch

1300 – 1400    Data for Wargames (recent version) – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

1400 – 1500   

1500 – 1600   

1600 – 1700    Urban Warfare (old)                           Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI) – ?

 

Day 3: Other Analysis of Warfare

0900 – 1000    Midway and the Aleutians                  Dr. Michael Johnson (CNA)

1000 – 1100   

1100 – 1200   

1200 – 1300    Lunch

1300 – 1400   

 

Or Day 2 or 3: Combat Modeling Analysis

 

Or Day 2 or 3: Urban Warfare

 

Or Day 2 or 3: Air Combat Analysis

 

Or Day 2 or 3: Naval Combat Analysis

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Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.
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Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.
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His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) , The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019), The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2023), Aces at Kursk (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024), Hunting Falcon: The Story of WWI German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024) and The Siege of Mariupol (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2024).
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Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

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