Schedule for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 – update 5

Below is the provisional schedule for the first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). We currently have set up two conference rooms for use and are issuing out a call for presentations. We do have 29 presentations scheduled by 19 speakers. We have slots available for at least another dozen presentations. Each slot is an hour long, so planning for a 45-minute presentation and 15 minutes of discussion.

If we get more requests than that, my bias is to either rent a third conference room at the facility or to reduce some presentations to 20 minutes with 10 minutes of discussion. This would allow us to do two presentations in an hour slot. We are probably not going to turn away any quality presentations.

We have created a new section called “Researching Operations,” which is somewhat related to but not quite the same as Operations Research. We are looking to add to that section presentations on Georgia in 2008, Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020 and Ukraine in 2022. Looking for volunteers for those, or for any other conflicts worth looking at.

Conference description is here: The First Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 in Tysons Corner, VA – update 3 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Costs, Hotels and Call for Papers: The Costs, Hotels and Call for Papers – update 3 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

The current schedule is:

 

Schedule: Pike and Gallows Conference Center

Updated: 14 April 2022

 

Day 1: Analysis of Conventional Combat

0900 – 0930    Introductory remarks (new)              Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

0930 – 1030    Studying Combat (old)                      Dr. Shawn Woodford (TDI)

1030 – 1130    Data for Wargames (recent version) – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

1130 – 1230    How Lanchester modelling fits the historical data

                                                                                     Dr. Paul R. Syms (Dstl)

1230 – 1400    Lunch

1400 – 1500    Research fitting Lanchester Models to Battle Data

                                                                                    Dr. Tom Lucas (NPS)

1500 – 1600    How Important are Superior Numbers?                     

Dr. David Kirkpatrick (University College London) – virtual?

1600 – 1700    Killing Captain Hindsight: Quantifying Chance in Military History

                                                                               Dr. Niall MacKay (University of York)        

 

Evening (1900):          Group Dinner – Rangos

 

Day 2: Analysis of Unconventional Warfare

0900 – 1000    Iraq, Data, Hypotheses and Afghanistan (old)

                                                                                  Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

1000 – 1100    History as an Enemy and an Instructor: Lessons Learned from Haiti 1915-1934                                                                          Dr. Christopher Davis (UNCG)

1100 – 1200   

1200 – 1300    Lunch

1300 – 1400    Estimating War Deaths (in Iraq)

                                                                                 Dr. Michael Spagat (RHUL)

1400 – 1500    Infantry Support Weapon              Joe Follansbee (Col., USA, ret.) – ?

1500 – 1600   

1600 – 1700    The Silent Killers: A Quick Historical Review of Biological Threats.

                                                                        Dr. Douglas A. Samuelson (InfoLogix, Inc.) 

 

Evening (1900):          Group Dinner – BJs

 

Day 3: Other Analysis of Warfare

0900 – 1000    The Application of the Scientific Method to Military History

                                                                       Clinton Reilly (Computer Strategies. Australia)

1000 – 1100    Risk Tolerance in Combat Decision Making             Matt Tompkins

1100 – 1200    Quantitative Risk Assessment in Military Decisions

                                                                       Dr. Douglas A. Samuelson (InfoLogix, Inc.)

1200 – 1300    Lunch

1300 – 1400    HA support for our Directorate of Land Warfare

                                                                       Dr. Paul L. Syms (Dstl)

1400 – 1500    Quantitative Analysis of History of Direct Fire Weapons

                                                                       Dr. Alexander Kott (ARL)

1500 – 1600    The Criticality of Resurrecting TDI & TNDM

                                                                       Joe Follansbee (Col., USA, ret.)

1600 – 1700    The Future of TDI and work of the conference (new)

                                                                      Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

 

Evening:          Happy hour  – Rangos and/or Hawk and Griffin 

 

Schedule: Einstein Conference Room

 

Day 1: Poster and Book Room

Opened at 0800

 

Afternoon Day 1: Other Analysis of Warfare

1400 – 1500   

1500 – 1600   

1600 – 1700

 

Day 2: Analysis of Conventional Combat

0900 – 1000    A Statistical Analysis of Land Battles: What is Associated with Winning?

                                                                                                    Dr. Tom Lucas (NPS)

1000 – 1100    The Combat Assessment Technique               William Sayers

1100 – 1200    Machine Learning the Lessons of History      Dr. Robert Helmbold – virtual

1200 – 1300    Lunch

1300 – 1400    Penetration Division: Theory, History, Concept

                                                                         LtC. Nathan A Jennings, PhD

1400 – 1500   

1500 – 1600    War by Numbers (old)           Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI) – ?

1600 – 1700    Urban Warfare (old)               Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI) – ?

 

 

Day 3: Researching Operations

0900 – 1000    The AEF and Consolidation of Gains Operations during the Meuse-Argonne Offensive, 1918                              Dr. Christopher Davis (UNCG)

1000 – 1100    The Red Army’s War in Ukraine 1943-44

                                                                        Dr. Richard Harrison

1100 – 1200    The Decline of War Since 1950        

                                                                       Dr. Michael Spagat (RHUL)

1200 – 1300    Lunch

1300 – 1400    Donbas Campaign 2014-2015            Reserved          

1400 – 1500

1500 – 1600

1600 – 1700    Midway and the Aleutians   Dr. Michael Johnson (CNA)

 

Or Day 2 or 3: Combat Modeling

 

Or Day 2 or 3: Urban Warfare

 

Or Day 2 or 3: Air Combat Analysis

 

Or Day 2 or 3: Naval Combat Analysis

 

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Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.
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Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.
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His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) , The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019), The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2023), Aces at Kursk (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024), Hunting Falcon: The Story of WWI German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024) and The Siege of Mariupol (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2024).
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Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

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6 Comments

      • Exactly. (Being in the UK, I fear that in-person attendance is not an option).

        I quite understand if this isn’t possible.

        • Pretty sure it is possible. I am renting a conference facility. So, I need to talk to them about this. Of course, I will need to find out what will be the cost. Right now, I do not have an IT person to help with the conference, so I assume I will have to pay for one.

          So suspect it will be driven by how many people want to attend virtually. I currently have no idea.

          Now we do have two virtual presenters, Bob Helmbold and David Kirkpatrick (University College London).

  2. Could you advise when or if a virtual option is available, at which point I’m happy to register.

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