Who’s Who at HAAC – part 1

We have blogged about the work of a few of our presenters at HAAC. The schedule for the conference is here: Schedule for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 – update 7 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org). Let me flag a few those presenters. This will take three or four posts:

1. Dr. Michael Spagat (Royal Holloway University of London) – see: TDI Friday Read: Mike Spagat’s Economics of Warfare Lectures & Commentaries | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) and Accounting for Death in War | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org). We ended up doing about thirty blog posts on Dr. Spagat’s work.

2. Dr. Richard Harrison – Richard Harrison worked at TDI on the Kursk Data Base: Validation Data Bases Available (Kursk) | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) and Losses of the 32nd and 31st Tank Brigades at Prokhorovka | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) and here is his author’s list on Amazon (4 books):  Amazon.com: Richard W. Harrison: Books, Biography, Blog, Audiobooks, Kindle. His latest release (27 July) is The Soviet Army’s High Commands: The Soviet Army’s High Commands in War and Peace, 1941–1992: Harrison, Richard W: 9781952715105: Amazon.com: Books

3. William (Chip) Sayers – He worked with Trevor Dupuy in the early 1990s on developing the TNDM. See his blog posts: A story about planning for Desert Storm (1991) | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) and An Independent Effort to Use the QJM to Analyze the War in Ukraine | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org).

4. Dr. Tom Lucas (NPS) – We have discussed some of his work a few times: The Use of the Two Campaign Data Bases | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) and Lanchester equations have been weighed…. | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) and Really…..Lanchester? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org).

5. Dr. Michael Johnson (CNA) – He did one blog post for us: The Meaning of Military Expenditures II | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org).

His bio is here:

For over 34 years, Michael Johnson—known as Mike—has been an operations analyst at the Center for Naval Analyses (CNA), the Federally Funded Research and Development Center for the Department of the Navy.  He has served as the CNA Field Representative or CNA Scientific Analyst at several Navy, Marine Corps, and Joint commands such as Commander, Battle Force, 6th Fleet; Naval Strike and Air Warfare Center; Marine Corps Air-Ground Task Force Training Command; Marine Corps Information Operations Center; Joint UAV Joint Test and Evaluation; Joint UAS Center of Excellence; OPNAV N-80; and Deputy Commandant for Combat Development and Integration.  He has led or participated in analytical studies related to anti-air warfare, surface-to-air radars, multinational naval operations, peace operations, advanced gun systems, unmanned aircraft systems, operations in the information environment, and in organizations, roles, and missions. 

He has a PhD in Physics from Brigham Young University (1989), Bachelor’s Degrees in Physics and Math from the University of Utah (1985), a Graduate Certificate from the Naval War College, and also studied British history and institutions at Cambridge University in the UK.  He has taught various mathematics courses for Chapman University and physics courses for the Brigham Young University—Idaho.

He has had an interest in the Battle of Midway since receiving the Avalon-Hall game on Midway as a birthday present in 1970.

6. LtCol. Amos Fox (USA) – His work has caught our attention: The Battles of the Donetsk Airport (May 2014 – Jan 2015) | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) and Toward An American Approach To Proxy Warfare | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) and Active Defense, Forward Defense, and A2/AD in Eastern Europe | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) and U.S. Army Doctrine and Future Warfare | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) and Back To The Future: The Return Of Sieges To Modern Warfare | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) and The Combat Value of Surprise | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) and Sketching Out Multi-Domain Battle Operational Doctrine | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) and Linking Operations, Strategy, and Policy In Russian Hybrid Warfare | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) and Tanks and Russian Hybrid Warfare | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org).

7. Dr. Alexander Kott (ARL) – We have blogged about some of his work before: Dupuy’s Verities: Fortification | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) and The Evolution of Weapons and Warfare? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) and Data Used for the ARL Paper | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) and Data Used of the ARL Paper – post 2 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) and Technological Advancement Lessons from History? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) and Two ARL Reports | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) and Dupuy used for Click Bait | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org).

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Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.
Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.
His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) , The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019), The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2023), Aces at Kursk (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024), Hunting Falcon: The Story of WWI German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024) and The Siege of Mariupol (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2024).
Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

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