Schedule of the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 – update 12

Below is the provisional schedule for the first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). We currently have set up two conference rooms and are issuing out a call for presentations. We now have 35 presentations scheduled by 24 speakers and 2 group discussions planned. We have slots available for at least another half-dozen presentations. Each slot is an hour long, so planning for a 45-minute presentation and 15 minutes of discussion.

If we get more requests than that, my bias is to either rent a third conference room at the facility or to reduce some presentations to 20 minutes with 10 minutes of discussion. This would allow us to do two presentations in an hour slot. We are probably not going to turn away any quality presentations.

We have created a new section called “Researching Operations,” which is somewhat related to but not quite the same as Operations Research. We are looking to add to that section presentations on Georgia in 2008, Ukraine in 2014 and Ukraine in 2022. Looking for volunteers for those, or for any other conflicts worth looking at.

In the meantime, we have set up two potential group discussions: 1) Could We Have Won the War in Afghanistan 2001-2021?, and 2) Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022. I would prefer a presentation on these subjects, but I do think they need to be addressed regardless.

The conference is at 1934 Old Gallows Road, Suite 350, Vienna, VA 22182. This is basically across the street by Tysons Corner Shopping mall and the Marriot Hotel on Route 7. It is right off the Route 7 exit from 495 (the Beltway). It is at the corner of Route 7 (Leesburg Pike) and Old Gallows Road.

Conference description is here: The First Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 in Tysons Corner, VA – update 3 | Mystics & Statistics (

Costs, Hotels and Call for Papers: The Costs, Hotels and Call for Papers – update 3 | Mystics & Statistics (

The cost of the conference is $150 for entire conference or $60 a day. Please pay through paypal ( to I really think that is better than everyone standing in line of Tuesday morning while we collect payment for the conference. The conference is priced to cover the costs of the conference facility.


We now have five virtual presentations, and we are set up for virtual attendees. To date we have not had anyone commit to being a virtual attendee.


Schedule: Pike and Gallows Conference Center

Updated: 18 August 2022



Day 1: Analysis of Conventional Combat

0900 – 0930    Introductory remarks (new)                Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

0930 – 1030    Studying Combat (old)                       Dr. Shawn Woodford (TDI)

1030 – 1130    Data for Wargames (recent version) – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

1130 – 1230    How Lanchester modelling fits the historical data

                                                                                    Dr. Paul R. Syms (Dstl)

1230 – 1400    Lunch

1400 – 1500    Research fitting Lanchester Models to Battle Data

                                                                                    Dr. Tom Lucas (NPS)

1500 – 1600    How Important are Superior Numbers?                     

Dr. David Kirkpatrick (University College London) – virtual

1600 – 1700    Killing Captain Hindsight: Quantifying Chance in Military History

Dr. Niall MacKay (University of York)        

1700 – 1800     TND’s Theory of Combat                  Dr. Shawn Woodford (TDI) – ?



Evening (1900):          Group Dinner – Rangos



Day 2: Analysis of Unconventional Warfare

0900 – 1000    Iraq, Data, Hypotheses and Afghanistan (old)

Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

1000 – 1100    History as an Enemy and an Instructor: Lessons Learned from Haiti 1915-1934                             Dr. Christopher Davis (UNCG)

1100 – 1200    Estimating War Deaths (in Iraq)

Dr. Michael Spagat (Royal Holloway University of London)

1200 – 1300    Lunch

1300 – 1400    Group Discussion: Could We Have Won the War in Afghanistan 2001-2021?

1400 – 1500    Close Combat Overmatch Weapons               Joe Follansbee (Col., USA, ret.) – ?

1500 – 1600    open

1600 – 1700    The Silent Killers: A Quick Historical Review of Biological Threats.

                                                                      Dr. Douglas A. Samuelson (InfoLogix, Inc.) 


Evening (1900):          Group Dinner – BJs



Day 3: Other Analysis of Warfare

0900 – 1000    The Application of the Scientific Method to Military History

Clinton Reilly (Computer Strategies. Australia)

1000 – 1100    Quantitative Analysis of History of Direct Fire Weapons

                                                                                    Dr. Alexander Kott (ARL)

1100 – 1200    HA support for our Directorate of Land Warfare

Dr. Paul L. Syms (Dstl)

1200 – 1300    Lunch

1300 – 1400    Risk Tolerance in Combat Decision Making             Matt Tompkins

1400 – 1500    Quantitative Risk Assessment in Military Decisions

                                                                Dr. Douglas A. Samuelson (InfoLogix, Inc.)

1500 – 1600    The Criticality of Resurrecting TDI & TNDM

                                                                                    Joe Follansbee (Col., USA, ret.)

1600 – 1700    The Future of TDI and work of the conference (new)

Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)


Evening:          Happy hour  – Rangos and/or Hawk and Griffin 



Schedule: Einstein Conference Room


Day 1: Poster and Book Room

Opened at 0800


Afternoon Day 1: Other Analysis of Warfare

1400 – 1500    Air Combat Analysis on the Eastern Front in 1944-45

            Daniel Horvath – virtual

1500 – 1600    Midway and the Aleutians                  Dr. Michael Johnson (CNA)

1600 – 1700    Simulation-Based Historical Analysis: a France 1940 Concept

                                                Timothy J. Smith, ONI



Day 2: Analysis of Conventional Combat

0900 – 1000    A Statistical Analysis of Land Battles: What is Associated with Winning?

                                                                                                Dr. Tom Lucas (NPS)

1000 – 1100    The Combat Assessment Technique               William Sayers

1100 – 1200    Machine Learning the Lessons of History      Dr. Robert Helmbold – virtual

1200 – 1300    Lunch

1300 – 1400    Penetration Division: Theory, History, Concept

                                                                                    LtC. Nathan A Jennings, PhD

1400 – 1500    Learning from History: The Army’s Future Study Program

                                                                                    LtC. Adam. L. Taliaferro

1500 – 1600    Artillery Suppression: New Analysis of Core Data – virtual

                                    Dermot Rooney (Wapentakes)

1600 – 1700    Urban Warfare (old)                           Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI) – ?



Day 3: Researching Operations

0900 – 1000    The AEF and Consolidation of Gains Operations during the Meuse-Argonne Offensive, 1918                                             Dr. Christopher Davis (UNCG)

1000 – 1100    Evaluating German Aerial Photography at the Battle of Kursk, 1943

                                                                                    Eugene Matyukhin

1100 – 1200    The Red Army’s War in Ukraine 1943-44

                                                                                    Dr. Richard Harrison

1200 – 1300    Lunch

1300 – 1400    The Decline of War Since 1950        

Dr. Michael Spagat (Royal Holloway University of London)

1400 – 1500    Drone Warfare and the Nagorno-Karabakh War of 2020

                                                                                    Dr. Alexander Kotts (ARL)

1500 – 1600    Patterns of Explosive Violence Harm in Ukraine Before and After the 24 Feb. Invasion                                                            Chiara Torelli (AOAV) – virtual

1600 – 1700    Group Discussion: Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022




Or Day 2 or 3: Combat Modeling

Or Day 2 or 3: Urban Warfare

Or Day 2 or 3: Air Combat Analysis

Or Day 2 or 3: Naval Combat Analysis

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Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.
Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.
His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) , The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019), The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2023), Aces at Kursk (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024), Hunting Falcon: The Story of WWI German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024) and The Siege of Mariupol (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2024).
Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

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