Updates to Day 199 blog post

Just to put all my updates in one place to today’s earlier blog post on day 199 of the Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022:

Update: Well, we have already gotten the answers to the above questions. Russia withdrew today (10 September) from Izyum. It was reported that on 9 September the suburbs of Oskil and Kapytolivka were recaptured by the Ukrainians. In the morning today it was reported that the Russians had fled the city, leaving equipment behind. By late afternoon, it was reported that that Izyum was under full control of Ukraine. The same with Kupyansk whereby the morning of 10 September, Ukrainian forces had captured the city’s council building. Ukrainian officials confirmed later this day that Kupyansk had been liberated.

Update: Hard to disguise this as anything over than a defeat. They clearly did not have the forces in place to stabilize the situation or conduct a counterattack. This does strongly indicate that they are just suffering from a lack of combat power all along the line. This does lead one to suspect that the Ukrainians are not finished with this offensive, and there may be more Ukrainian offensives to come. Like the earlier Soviet armies of old, Russia could be wishing for bad weather sooner rather than later.

Update: Do not know how far back they have fallen. It does appear that as a minimum, the entire collection of forces near Izyum is going to pull back behind the Oskil River. Still, it appears that Ukraine has gotten more than one foothold across the Oskil, so the final point of retreat is not certain. It appears that Russia is never going to take the rest of Donetsk province.

Update: But things have gotten worse for the Russians, there are unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian forces are now at Donetsk International Airport. The Ukrainian lines were always close to this non-functioning airport, and Ukraine was only driven out of it in early 2015. The nearby town of Pisky was only taken by Russia last month, in the second half of August. Now, Ukraine is back rumored to be back at the airport and I assume in a position to directly threaten the capital of the Donetsk People’s Republic. Not a good scenario for Russia at all. 

This is all part of the previous post also. I posted it all on twitter, but at 240 characters a tweet, it does not fit very well.

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Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.
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Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.
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His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) , The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019), The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2023), Aces at Kursk (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024), Hunting Falcon: The Story of WWI German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024) and The Siege of Mariupol (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2024).
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Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

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4 Comments

  1. Three questions come to mind:

    1. are we seeing a disintegration of the Russian army right now?
    2. will Russia now use tactical nukes to make us believe that the Russian army is invincible anyway?
    3. will Russia continue to refuse negotiation talks even though the conditions for them could not be better now?

    • <<1. are we seeing a disintegration of the Russian army right now?>>

      Don’t know. It appears the Ukrainians concentrated force at a weak area in the lines, got a breakthrough, then advanced through undefended terrain, and there were not sufficient Russian forces in the area to immediately respond. Is this a collapsing morale or just a lack of forces? Even if this was collapsing morale, does it only apply to this area or does it apply to other places along the front?

      <<2. will Russia now use tactical nukes to make us believe that the Russian army is invincible anyway?>>

      No. In the end, Izyum is a town of only 45,884. Not worth endangering your entire nation over.

      <<3. will Russia continue to refuse negotiation talks even though the conditions for them could not be better now?>>

      Russia has been recently making noise about restarting talks, it is Ukraine that has been disinterested. In the end the conflict is going to have to be resolved on the ground before it can be settled in talks.

      Keep in mind this is one local offensive in one area of the front. No major cities exchanged hands. We will have to see what the next six weeks bring.

  2. This is the result of forcibly recruited units. These are people who were sent to the front against their will and probably also against their conviction.

    It is understandable that they flee as soon as the enemy units are in range.

    • I am not sure if this is the correct observation. Amongst them are also contractors and volunteers.
      During WW2, forced recruitment did induce variance in spirit, though historically the Soviet army seemed to have issues with morale. Frustration resulted in repercussions and what they lacked in morale they made up with sadism, unloaded on the local population, but perhaps this might be more ideological or civilizational.
      What would be interesting to know is whether the poorest of a given society have lower esprit than those of a higher standing.

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