The Third Special Conference on Historical Data Analysis (SCOHDA III)

Just searching around the internet on definitions of what historical analysis is and stumbled across this: /tardir/tiffs/a377305.tiff (

This Historical Data Analysis conference (SCOHDA IIII) was hosted by the Center for Army Analysis (CAA) at Fort Belvoir. This conference occurred in March 2000. Previous conferences had occurred in 1989 and 1995. I had never heard of these conferences, although I was currently working on the Capture Rate Studies for CAA at that time and knew a number of the people involved. One speaker at that conference is also speaking at our Historical Analysis conference the week after next.

There were 14 presentations and 26 attendees. The 14 presentations are listed on page 9 (electronic page 16) and are:

  1. The Application of Historical Analysis (John Harding)
  2. The Simple Battlegroup (SIMBAT) Model (Paul Glover)
  3. The Influence of Nationality Factors on Force Effectiveness (David Rowland)
  4. Historical Analysis of Operations-Other-Than-War (Nigel Poole)
  5. Stochastic Analysis of Resources for Deployments and Excursions (Touggy
  6. Historical Ammunition Rates (Robert Helmbold)
  7. Data Used to Support the Combat Simulation of Desert Storm (Jeff Appleget)
  8. Historical Analysis of Crisis Feasibility (Alistair Morley)
  9. Public Opinion and Casualty Levels (David Rowland)
  10. UK Historical Data Analysis of Air Warfare (Andrew Hossack)
  11. Trends in Land Combat (Robert Helmbold)
  12. Findings from Developmental Tests – An Information Source for Warfighters
    (Richard Cozby)
  13. The Battle of the Atlantic -Giant Database and Workshop: Opportunities
    for Creative Synergy (Jock Gardner)
  14. Quantification of the Battle of Kursk (Walter Bauman)

There are abstracts of these presentations on pages 10-23.

I gather there has never been a subsequent such conference (a SCOHDA IV).

This is very similar to our Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) in both style and content. They only held it every 5 or 6 years and have not held it since 2000. 

The schedule for our conference is here: Schedule for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 – update 15 | Mystics & Statistics (

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Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.
Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.
His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) , The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019), The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2023), Aces at Kursk (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024), Hunting Falcon: The Story of WWI German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024) and The Siege of Mariupol (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2024).
Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

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