Schedule for the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17-19 October 2023

This is the fourth provisional schedule for the second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). We currently have 24 presentations scheduled by 17 speakers and two group discussions planned. Each slot is an hour long, so planning for a 45-minute presentation and 15 minutes of discussion.

The conference is at 1934 Old Gallows Road, Suite 350, Vienna, VA 22182. This is basically across the street by Tysons Corner Shopping mall and the Marriot Hotel on Route 7. It is right off the Route 7 exit from 495 (the Beltway). It is at the corner of Route 7 (Leesburg Pike) and Old Gallows Road. It is in the building above the restaurant called Rangos. Parking is in the parking garage next door to it.

Conference description is here: The Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17-19 October 2023 in Tysons Corner, VA | Mystics & Statistics (

Costs, Hotels and Call for Presentations: Cost of the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17 -19 October 2023 | Mystics & Statistics ( and Hotels for the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17-19 October 2023 | Mystics & Statistics ( and Call for Presentations for the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17-19 October 2023 | Mystics & Statistics (

The cost of the conference is $150 for entire conference or $60 a day. Please pay through PayPal ( to The conference is priced to cover the costs of the conference facility. We are also set up to take credit card payments by phone. Call The Dupuy Institute during working hours at (703) 289-0007.

We are set up for virtual presentations and virtual attendees. We are exploring the costs of having the presentations professionally recorded.


Schedule: Pike and Gallows Conference Center

Updated: 31 March 2023



Day 1: Analysis of Conventional Combat

0900 – 0930    Introductory remarks                        Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

0930 – 1030     Addressing the Decline in War Question with New Disaggregated Data

                                                Dr. Michael Spagat (Royal Holloway University of London)

1030 – 1130      A Cautionary Tale: Alternative Interpretations of the Same Data – virtual

                                                                                    Jim Storr

1130 – 1230 Land Operations – consistencies and discrepancies between theory, historical analysis and doctrine                             LtC. Trygve Smidt (Norway)

1230 – 1400    Lunch

1400 – 1500    Temporal and Geographic Patterns of Fatal Casualty Rates in WWI and WWII                                                                         Sasho Todorov  

1500 – 1600    Force Ratios                                    Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

1600 – 1700    open

1700 – 1800    open


Evening (1900):          Group Dinner – Rangos



Day 2: Analysis of Unconventional Warfare

0900 – 1000    Iraq, Data, Hypotheses and Afghanistan (old)

                                                                                   Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

1000 – 1100     Evidence of Fabricated Survey Data Collected during the War in Iraq

                                           Dr. Michael Spagat (Royal Holloway University of London)

1000 – 1100 Unburdened by History: Understanding Russia’s Growing Influence in Haiti                                                                           Dr. Christopher Davis (UNCG)

1100 – 1200    open

1200 – 1300    Lunch

1300 – 1400    The Right Way to Do Risk Analysis: A Primer and Update, With Examples from Pandemics                                                       Dr. Doug Samuelson (InfoLogix)

1400 – 1500    Close  Combat Overmatch Weapons (SLAMMER)

                                                                                    Joe Follansbee (Col., USA, ret.)

1500 – 1600    Chemical Weapons in Syria            Jennifer Schlacht, M.A.

1600 – 1700    Group Discussion: The Next Middle East Wars


Evening (1900):          Group Dinner – BJs



Day 3: Other Analysis of Warfare

0900 – 1000    Russian Information Warfare Against Western Democracies Since 2013: A review and update                                                 Dr. Doug Samuelson (InfoLogix)

1000 – 1100    open

1100 – 1200    open

1200 – 1300    Lunch

1300 – 1400    The Application of the Scientific Method to Military History – virtual

                                                            Clinton Reilly (Computer Strategies, Australia)

1400 – 1500    The Future of TDI and work of the conference (new)

                                                                                  Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

1500 – 1600    open

1600 – 1700    open


Evening:         Happy hour – Rangos 



Schedule: Einstein Conference Room


Day 1: Poster and Book Room

Opened at 0800


Afternoon Day 1: Other Analysis of Warfare

1400 – 1500   History of Pneumatic Combat Weapons    Jacob Friend

1500 – 1600   Soviet WWII Aerial Photography      Eugene Matyukhin 

1600 – 1700   Open



Day 2: Analysis of Conventional Combat

0900 – 1000    unnamed – William Sayers

1000 – 1100    Open

1100 – 1200    Urban Warfare (old)                         Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

1200 – 1300    Lunch

1300 – 1400    Study of Pneumatic Weapons in Sub/Urban Conbat

                                                                                  Jacob Friend

1400 – 1500    Open

1500 – 1600    Open

1600 – 1700   Penetrate, Dis-Integrate and Exploit: The Israeli Counter-Offensive at the Suez Canal, 1973                                                    LtC. Nathan A Jennings, PhD



Day 3: Researching Operations

0900 – 1000 The AEF and Consolidation of Gains Operations Durning the Meuse-Argonne Offensive                                                  Dr. Christopher Davis (UNCG)

1000 – 1100    Kursk Photo Analysis                     Eugene Matyukhin

1100 – 1200    The Red Army’s Offensive Operations in Ukraine, 1943-44                                                                Dr. Richard Harrison

1200 – 1300    Lunch

1300 – 1400   Patterns of Explosive Violence Harm in Ukraine Before and After the 24 Feb. Invasion                                                           Chiara Torelli (AOAV) – virtual

1400 – 1500    Open

1500 – 1600    Open

1600 – 1700    Group Discussion: Russo-Ukrainian War


The presentations from all three days of the first HAAC are here: Presentations from the first HAAC – all three days | Mystics & Statistics (

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Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.
Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.
His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) , The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019), The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2023), Aces at Kursk (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024), Hunting Falcon: The Story of WWI German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024) and The Siege of Mariupol (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2024).
Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

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