Gaza Strip barriers torn open

One of the sad things about being a military historian and defense analyst is that not only are you never suffering from a lack of cases to examine, but the world keeps just adding new wars, conflicts, political violence and terrorist incidents. I fear I will never become obsolete.

Hamas tore through the Gaza Strip barriers today, proving once again that 1) barriers are useless if not properly defended, 2) stubbornly refusing to resolve an issue means it keeps coming back up, and 3) intelligence services are far from foolproof.

Anyhow, on Saturday morning (7 October), the Jewish sabbath, Hamas attacked the Gaza Strip barrier. Hamas unleashed a massive barrage of rockets. More than 3,500 according to the Israeli military. Hamas fighters then broke though the barriers along the Gaza Strip in multiple locations. They used explosives to break through the border fence, fighters to assault select points, and even bulldozers to take down fences. They then crossed with motorcycles, pickup trucks, paragliders and speed boats along the coast. 

According to AP News Service, Hamas fighters “rolled into” as many as 22 locations inside of Israel, going as far as 15 miles (24 kilometers) inside Israel. In some places the Hamas fighters roamed the streets of the towns, gunning down civilians and soldiers. The Israel rescue service Saka said at least 200 people were killed and 1,1000 wounded. This makes this the bloodiest fight for Israel since the 1982-85 Israeli Intervention in the Lebanese Civil War. 

Meanwhile, the Israeli air force launched airstrikes at Gaza. At least one 14-story building went down. The Palestinian Health Ministry said that at least 232 people in Gaza Strip have been killed and at least 1,700 have been wounded. I gather in both cases the majority of casualties were civilians. 

Added to that Hamas has taken two dozen or more hostages, both civilians and soldiers, based upon the videos I have seen. There are pictures of at least nine people gunned down at a bus shelter in the town of Sderot and roomful of Israeli’s executed in a kibbutz.

Among the hostages, an elderly Israeli woman was seen brought back to Gaza on a golf cart and another woman on a motorcycle. Hamas was parading captured Israeli military vehicles through the streets of Gaza. Hamas is claiming to be holding dozens of Israeli soldiers captive. There appears to be some truth to that. AP journalists saw four civilians, including two women, taken from kibbutz of Kfar Azza. Other videos show a half-dozen or more Israeli civilians rounded up by Hamas on the street and loaded into trucks. I assume they are now in Gaza.

Israel is claiming that Haas will pay an “unprecedented price” and is moving four divisions of troops to the Gaza border. There are supposedly 31 Israeli battalions already in the area.

We shall see how this plays out. Does Hezbollah join in (distinctly possible)? Does the PLO join in (maybe)? Do Arab-Israeli citizens protest? This conflict is probably going to be bloody, with the majority of losses on both sides being civilians.

Internationally, most likely the reproachment between Israel and Saudi Arabia will be tabled.

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Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.
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Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.
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His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) , The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019), The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2023), Aces at Kursk (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024), Hunting Falcon: The Story of WWI German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024) and The Siege of Mariupol (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2024).
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Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

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