Ukraine’s nuclear weapons

My primary focus at the moment is writing books, currently wrapping up two and well into the next. A chapter in the new book on the Russo-Ukrainian War is called Defense Budgets and International Aid. It starts as follows:

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          The United States and other members of NATO started providing military and financial aid in small amounts to Ukraine from the moment in declared its independence. Private aid agencies also did, including George Soros’ Open Society Foundation. Ukraine actually declared its independence in August 1991, but the government of the Soviet Union was still officially ruling over all fifteen nations in the Soviet Union. That Soviet government collapsed on 25-26 December 1991, ending the almost 70 year existence of the Soviet Union. Ukraine was clearly a free and independent county at that point.

            Ukraine had considerable armed forces at that time, inheriting its share of the large Soviet Army and even inheriting a nuclear force of 176 ICBMs and 33 heavy bombers with a total of 1,734 nuclear warheads. It was the third largest nuclear power in the world. The break-up of the Soviet Union had left behind four nuclear armed states: Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Belarus. It became the policy of the west disarm these three new nuclear armed states (but not Russia) and it was in the interest of Russian to also do so. As a result, in 1994 Ukraine agreed to give up its nuclear weapons and on 5 December 1994 Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan signed the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances. It was also signed by the two major nuclear powers, the United States and Russia and also the nuclear power United Kingdom. The other two nuclear powers, China and France. provided weaker individual assurances in separate documents. The end result was that between 1993 and 1996, the three former Soviet states gave up their nuclear weapons, mostly passing them back over to Russia.

            The signatories to the Budapest Memorandum also agreed that (to quote directly from the treaty, the bolding is ours):

  1. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britian and Northern Ireland, and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the CSCE Final Act, to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine.
  2. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britian and Northern Ireland, and the United Sates of America reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defense or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations.
  3. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the Principles of the CSCE Final Act, to refrain from economic coercion designed to subordinate to their own interest the exercise by Ukraine of the rights inherent in its sovereignty and thus to secure advantages of any kind.

There were three other related points 4) addressing enforcement through the security council, 5) a commitment not to use of nuclear weapons against any non-nuclear-weapon state, and 6) that the signatories will consult if a situation arises. [1] The memorandum was signed by Leonid D. Kuchman (Ukraine), Boris N. Yeltsin (Russia), John Major (UK) and William J. Clinton (U.S.). Needless to say, from 2014-2024, Russia has not adhered to these first three points.

 

[1] The text of memorandum is here: volume-3007-I-52241.pdf (un.org)

 

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Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.
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Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.
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His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) , The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019), The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2023), Aces at Kursk (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024), Hunting Falcon: The Story of WWI German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024) and The Siege of Mariupol (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2024).
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Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

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3 Comments

  1. Regarding “…the three former Soviet states gave up their nuclear weapons, mostly passing them back over to Russia.”. Does Ukraine have any nuclear weapons now or were they all given back to Russia? If Ukraine has any, has it indicated that it would use them since the Russian invasion?.

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