The Japanese Gifu and Chinese Zhuhai Airshows, 2024

Continuing with a weekly post from Geof Clark, an American currently residing in Japan:

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Title: Japanese Gifu and Chinese Zhuhai Airshows, 2024


Image credit @AfbR681dzgszG1a
https://twitter.com/AfbR681dzgszG1a/status/1858810386805649512/photo/4

Recently, I attended an airshow at the Japanese Air Self-Defense Forces (JASDF) air base in Gifu Prefecture. According to the JASDF, about 65,000 people attended. This included many interesting aircraft, including F-15Js & F-2s fighters, KC-767 tanker, C-1 & C-2 cargo aircraft, and a USMC F/A-18C from the Marine Corps Air Station (MCAS) Iwakuni, among others. It was very impressive, however, the majority of these aircraft are decades old, and while they have been modified and improved over the years, the fundamental capabilities are unchanged. The JASDF and Japanese Maritime SDF (JMSDF) have both invested in F-35A and F-35B stealth aircraft in more recent years, but these were not on display in Gifu.

Perhaps the most modern kit on display was probably the XASM-3. This is a standoff anti-ship cruise missile (ASCM) which allows the F-2 aircraft to launch a maritime strike on enemy vessels from outside of their air defense envelope.

“Japan started full-scale development of a missile called XASM-3 in FY2010 that can be operated by (JASDF) F-2 fighter jets. The XASM-3 was an air-launched anti-ship missile (ASM) that cruised at supersonic speeds (above Mach 3) thanks an Integral Rocket Ramjet engine. It had a range of about 200 km (108 nautical miles).”


Four J-20s banks left of the show center. (Image credit: Rin Sakurai)

In contrast, the annual Chinese airshow at Zhuhai this year was very impressive. According to CCTV (the state-operated military news outlet), 600,000 people attended, and new contracts worth 280 billion yuan (about $38.6 billion) were signed. On display a number of impressive new aircraft and capabilities for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), from Russia, and available for possible export. The Aviationist has a good list of capabilities revealed. The following list & commentary is by no means exhaustive, but it gives an idea of these capabilities:

• PLA Air Force (PLAAF) – The Shenyang FC-31 prototype has been accepted by the PLAAF and commissioned as the J-35A stealth fighter. A smaller and probably less expensive stealth fighter to complement the J-20A, which is already in service. Is this part of a “high/low mix” with Chinese characteristics? Some claim that some smoke plumes seen illustrate the ongoing challenges China faces trying to match Western & Russian engine capability & quality.
• PLAAF – a J-20 “four ship” (four aircraft) put on a great flying demonstration, and a twin seat J-20S mock-up was on display. I saw one comment on X (twitter) claim that this was the first 5.5 generation fighter, as it is the first twin seat stealth fighter, which purports to better enable the concept of operations (CONOPS) of Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA). These are the fancy U.S. terms for the rear seat occupant managing flights of drones that accompany or are in close proximity (i.e. line of sight) to the J-20S aircraft. The USAF is progressing with plans for CCA, to be used with the F-22, F-35, possibly F-15EX and ultimately the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) “family of systems”. How much will a second person in the cockpit matter?
• Rosoboronexport (Russian state owned enterprise for arms exports) – an Su-57 (well, actually a T-50 prototype, thanks Millenium 7 …) gave an impressive flight display, complete with stunning acrobatics. The export statistics brochure data for both Su-57E and Su-75 Checkmate are linked here. There was also an announcement that the Su-57E has its first export contract, and speculation that Algeria is the most likely purchasing country, although others are possible … and indeed it might be the next in a long line of contracts that did not materialize …
• The Russian Knights put on an impressive display, returning to Zhuhai after an eight year absence. They flew in formation and solo demonstrations of Su-30SM and Su-35S. While this was certainly impressive, the Flanker family has had some challenges in Ukraine, and we will explore this in detail in a separate blog post soon.
• The PLAAF displayed their J-16D variant of the Flanker, and the PLA Navy (PLAN) displayed a similar J-15D, both of which are dedicated electronic warfare (EW) variants. Many military analysts comparing these to an EA-18G Growler, which might be apt for the J-15D, since both are carrier-borne, but the J-16D is a dedicated EW platform for the PLAAF, and the last time the U.S. Air Force (USAF) has such a platform was the EF-111A, which was retired in 1998.
• PLAN also displayed the J-15T naval variant, now equipped to be launched by catapult by the PLANS-18 (CV-003) Fujian aircraft carrier (CV), and probably future PLAN CVs, as well as being backward compatible with the existing ski-jump CVs. This will provide the capability to launch more rapidly with a much greater payload weight, possibly heralding a maritime strike fighter role, in addition to the air defense role. Other elements of the future air wing are expected to include a naval version of the J-35A mentioned above, and a fixed wing airborne early warning and control (what the U.S. calls AWACS) aircraft with the possible designation of KJ-600 As a side note, the Fujian has departed for sea trial number 5.
A plethora of un-crewed platforms that were also on static display including …

o CH-7, a peer competitor to US-made RQ-180, “ready to meet navy’s demand for maritime missions”. With a “debut at the airshow in 2018, it was being designed to be a stealth armed reconnaissance UAV that can play a strategic role in combat, so it was bigger and able to conduct strike missions to eliminate a strategic target. However, six years on, the CH-7 project has experienced a change … to [an] advanced tactical drone that is able to conduct various missions due to the development of modern warfare and the changing demand of clients”, Cao Ran of Aerospace CH UAV told the Global Times at the airshow.
o CH-9, a larger sized armed reconnaissance drone
o CH-3D, a smaller, lower cost drone
o CH-YH-1000, a cargo drone
o SS-UAV, or “Smart configuration Support Un-crewed Aerial Vehicle”, is a large, modular drone which according to Jane’s Defense might “undertake multiple missions, including maritime strike, long-range cargo transport, and surveillance.” There was speculation that it might also act as a mothership for multiple “attritable” drones in a swarm.

There are other systems which play a big role in aerial warfare, including the HQ-19 and DF-1000, which we will blog about soon!

Thanks for reading and for your comments!

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Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.
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Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.
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His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) , The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019), The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2023), Aces at Kursk (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024), Hunting Falcon: The Story of WWI German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024) and The Siege of Mariupol (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2024).
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Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

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