Taiwan Invasion: What is everyone else saying and why? – part 1

In our internal discussions, even though several of us could only find the means for China to lift 20,000 to 30,000 troops to Taiwan in the first wave, there was always people quoting from a range of sources that were saying something far different (see: The Chinese amphibious lift capacity – The Dupuy Institute). Who were those sources, what were they saying and why were they saying that? We are looking to 20-30K in a first wave, these guys are claiming hundreds of thousands or more. So what is the difference?

First: There was a 2,000,000 invasion force projected by writers for USNWC back in 2001.  Big difference between 2 million and 20K. 

To quote (my bolding):

“China has a large merchant fleet, with an enormous capacity for personnel and cargo. Its fifty naval amphibious ships and between two hundred and 350 landing craft, however, would be utterly unable to carry the entire combined-arms force. …

Extract of text is here:

The critical argument is here:

Meanwhile, the Chinese merchant fleet could be transporting upward to two million troops, in regular passenger ships and on cargo vessels temporarily adapted for troops…

They do footnote this last claim:

So basically they state that:

1. There are 50 amphibious transports ships. We currently count 46 but are otherwise in agreement: The load on PLA Navy Amphibious Assault Ships – The Dupuy Institute
2. There are 200 to 350 landing craft. This was written in 2001. The PLA have let this force decay and degrade, which I think is telling. We currently count 99: Other Chinese landing craft – The Dupuy Institute
3. And then they get to 2 million by counting the entire Chinese merchant fleet as first wave amphibious assets (actually they don’t say that, it is only implied). We have discussed this: The RoRo Ships – The Dupuy Institute. Needless to say, there are some problems with this concept:
   1. They are not first wave assets.
   2. Gathering this fleet together would give Taiwan weeks if not months of notice.
      1. And of course, in the meantime it will kill their trade and therefore their economy while doing this.
   3. They would need a port or some kind of dock to unload at, which might be a challenge in a hostile combat environment.
      1. Especially if these ports are well defended and,
      2. if there is a plan in place to ensure these ports are not usable if captured.

I really don’t take this claim seriously. Counting the entire Chinese commercial fleet as an amphibious asset is a reach, to say the least.