The Fourth HAAC is scheduled for 21-23 October 2025. We currently have 46 presentations scheduled (and 2 group discussions). We are, of course, looking for more quality presentations. The current schedule is:
Schedule: Pike & Gallows Conference Center
Revised 6 August 2025
Day 1: Analysis of Conventional Combat
0900 – 0930 Introductory remarks – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)
0930 – 1030 Studying Combat: The “Base of Sand” Problem – Dr. Shawn R. Woodford
1030 – 1130 Slouching Towards Wabash: The Withering of Historical Analysis in the American Profession of Arms – Ivan Torres (Jomini of the West, Major, U.S. Army, ret.)
1130 – 1230 History’s Lessons on Technological Surprise in War – Dr. Alexander Kott
1230 – 1400 Lunch
1400 – 1500 The History of TND’s models and theories – Dr. Shawn R. Woodford
1500 – 1600 Temporal and Geographic Patterns of Fatal Casualty Rates in WWI and WWII – Sasho Todorov, esquire
1600 – 1700 Ground Combat Database (GCD) – Dr. Ben Connable (Battle Research Group)
1700 – 1800 Difficulties in Measuring Morale and Effectiveness – Dr. Dermot Rooney (Wapentakes) – virtual
Evening (1900): Group Dinner – Rangos
Day 2: Analysis of Unconventional Warfare
0900 – 1000 Iraq, Data, Hypotheses and Afghanistan (old) – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)
1000 – 1100 Reserved for Dr. David Cuberes
1100 – 1200 The Truth About Little Big Horn Finally Comes Out – Dr. Robert Helmbold
1200 – 1300 Lunch
1300 – 1400 1916 Easter Rising – Robert A. Mosher
1400 – 1500 Terrorism and Afghanistan – Dr. Christopher Davis
1500 – 1600 Have We Figured Out How to Defeat IEDs? – Matt Matters (Col., USA, ret)
1600 – 1700 Group Discussion: The Next Middle East Wars
1700 – 1800 Price of Paradise – Dr. Iain Overton (AOAV) – virtual
Evening (1900): Group Dinner – BJs
Day 3: Other Analysis of Warfare
0900 – 1000 Summoning the specter of “Beweglichkeit”: A critical analysis of the U.S. Army’s new FM 3-0 Operations and observed Ukrainian battlefield trends – Ivan Torres (Jomini of the West, Major, U.S. Army, ret.)
1000 – 1100 open
1100 – 1200 Results from the Taiwan Analytical Efforts – Alexandru Filips
1200 – 1300 Lunch
1300 – 1400 The Hermann Goeing Division in North Africa, Sicily and Salerno 1942-1943 and Measuring Combat Effectiveness – Dr. James Slaughter
1400 – 1500 Syrskyi’s Gambit: A Critical Analysis of Ukraine’s Kursk Offensive – Ivan Torres (Jomini of the West, Major, U.S. Army, ret.)
1500 – 1600 Battle of Irpin River – Dr. Ben Connable (Battle Research Group)
1600 – 1700 Group Discussion: Russo-Ukrainian War
1700 – 1715 Closing Remarks
1715 – 1800 Revitalization of TDI – Joe Follansbee (Col., USA, ret.)
Evening: Happy hour – Rangos
Schedule: Einstein Conference Room
Day 1: Naval Warfare Analysis
0930 – 1030 Naval Theory and War Causation – Alexandru Filip
1030 – 1130 Modeling ATC Amphibious Landings on Taiwan – Dr. Julian Spencer-Churchill
1130 – 1230 Modeling the Invasion of Taiwan – Chip Sayers
1230-1400 Lunch
1400 – 1500 A Review of the CSIS gaming effort – Walker Gargagliano
1500 – 1600 Taipei Has Fallen!: Wargaming the Invasion of Taiwan – Clinton Rielly – virtual
1600 – 1700 Floating Fortresses: American Carriers Invulnerability to Battle Damage – Walker Gargagliano
1700 – 1800 Temporal and Geographic Patterns of Fatal Casualty Rates in WWI and WWII (part 2 or overflow presentation) – Sasho Todorov, esquire
Day 2: Analysis of Conventional Combat
0900 – 1000 The Manoeuvre Warfare Fraud – William F. Owen – virtual?
1000 – 1100 Salvation Only in Arms: A Critical Historical Analysis of Operational Maneuver during the 1814 Campaign in France – Ivan Torres (Jomini of the West, Major, U.S. Army, ret.)
1100 – 1200 Reserved – Dr. Dermot Rooney (Wapentakes) – virtual
1200 – 1300 Lunch
1300 – 1400 Quantifying Mahan’s Hypotheses – Dr. Julian Spencer Churchill
1400 – 1500 Twenty-First Century and Great Power Competition – Matt Matters (Col., USA, ret).
1500 – 1600 Systems Analysis and Strategy – Alexandru Filip
1600 – 1700 The New Science of Evidence and Causality – Dr. Douglas Samuelson
1700 – 1800 Close Combat Overmatch Weapons (SLAMMER) – Joe Follansbee (Col., USA, ret.)
Day 2: Combat Modeling and Air Warfare Analysis
0900 – 1000 Livermore, Dupuy, and the Campaign of 1864 – John E. Horn
1000 – 1100 A demonstration of a Spreadsheet version of the TNDM – Chip Sayers
1100 – 1200 open
1200 – 1300 Lunch
1300 – 1400 open
1400 – 1500 Aces at Kursk – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)
1500 – 1600 Analysis of the P-38 and P-51 over Germany 1943-45 – Chip Sayers
1600 – 1700 Analysis of Aerial Warfare in the Arab-Israeli Wars, 1973-1982 – Geoffrey Clark
Day 3: Other Analysis of Warfare
0900 – 1000 Isserson: The Architect of Victory – Dr. Richard Harrison
1000 – 1100 Audacity versus Friction: Evaluating Operational Autism in Operation Barbarossa. – Dr. Robert Kirchubel and Dr. Sorin Adam Matei (Purdue)
1100 – 1200 Reserved for Dr. James Slaughter
1200 – 1300 Lunch
1300 – 1400 The Red Army’s Plans for a Preemptive Attack in 1941 – Dr. Richard Harrison
1400 – 1500 New Advances in Digital Military Cartography – Gavin Ho, Joseph Hupy, Sorin Adam Matei and Robert Kirchubel.
1500 – 1600 Arctic Defense Concerns – Alexandru Filip
1600 – 1700 open
Reserve presentations:
Measuring the Value of Situational Awareness – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)
Urban Warfare – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)
Measuring Human Factors – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)
Breakpoints – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)
Friday, October 11: Tour of a Civil War Battlefield – Antietam: bloodiest day of the U.S. Civil War (and in the Western Hemisphere?). – we will arrange transport there and back ($20 charge for tour).
See this link below for costs ($150), address, conference description, hotels, and call for presentations: The Fourth HAAC is scheduled for 21 – 23 October 2025 – The Dupuy Institute
Last year’s schedule is here: October’s Revised Schedule for the Third Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) 8 – 10 October 2024 – The Dupuy Institute
