Mystics & Statistics

Presentation on the New Science of Causality and Evidence on Friday, 21 November, 300 PM EST

Dr. Douglas Samuelson will be giving a presentation on the New Science of Causality and Evidence at George Mason on this Friday, 21 November, 3oo PM (EST). It is also available on Zoom. This is an extension of the presentation he gave at the Fourth HAAC  (see: HAAC 2025: Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) – The Dupuy Institute). We have not posted up the videos yet from that conference.

Anyhow, the complete announcement is below:

Speaker: Doug Samuelson, D.Sc., InfoLogix and The Dupuy Institute
 
Title: The New Science of Causality and Evidence, and SIPMath
 
Abstract: We have seen a divergence between the science of association, generally expressed in statistics, and the probative efforts used in litigation. Law practice has expanded into more use of statistics and probability, but law and probability have remained largely out of touch with each other in research. Bringing more probabilistic insights into explorations of causality and evidence is even more important now because of the increasing use of AI, agent-based simulation, and complex systems analysis, all of which defy most probability-centric methods of validation. We note also that ALL observations are somewhat uncertain, because observations take place through media (photons, electron beams, whatever) that are inherently uncertain. We need to find rigorous ways to express causality, including partial and uncertain causation, using evidence which falls short of certainty.  Inference based on Stochastic Information Packets, already used with considerable success in risk analysis, provides a promising way forward.
 
Location: Center on Social Complexity Suite (3rd floor, Research Hall) and online (use Zoom link below)
 
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You are invited to a scheduled Zoom meeting.
 
Topic: CSS 898/CSI 899 – Friday CDS seminar
Date and time: Nov 21, 2025 03:00 PM Eastern Time (US and Canada) and every week on Friday
 
Please download and import the following iCalendar (.ics) files to your calendar system.
Weekly: https://gmu.zoom.us/meeting/tJwqc-ysrzMpH9wtxtnFEW3vB4mOL_WjnUmX/ics?icsToken=DJhikd9Kz1FZ2JWnSgAALAAAAP0uVBHNflM2xbWzpFjMT7mMYQ5XIx3ENHFj7HTERRsJ9RkWjX26HGvXd2R81E4KNDnYwMz1794FROOAZTAwMDAwMQ&meetingMasterEventId=wg7X9hQRQO2v8r3ULySu8g
 
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Meeting ID: 987 4541 8358
Passcode: 694458
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Fifth HAAC is Scheduled for 20 – 22 October 2026

The Fifth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) is schedule for 20-22 October 2026 in Tysons Corner, VA. Same locate, same format as the previous HAACs.

The schedule for the previous (Fourth) HAAC is here: HAAC 2025: Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) – The Dupuy Institute

The developing schedule for the Fifth HAAC is here: HAAC 2026: Fifth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) – The Dupuy Institute

The Eventbrite listing for the Fifth HAAC is here: Fifth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) Tickets, Tue, Oct 20, 2026 at 8:00 AM | Eventbrite

Feel free to email me at LawrenceTDI@aol.com if you want to schedule a presentation.

 

Fifth Presentation on Antietam tonight, 10 November via Zoom at 700 PM

Fifth presentation on Antietam tonight, 10 November via Zoom at 7:00 PM (EST). It is the fifth in a series of seven or more presentations by Dr. James Slaughter on the Maryland Campaign of 1862. It addresses the actual fighting on September 17, 1862.

The current schedule is:

5. The Afternoon and Evening September 17, 1862 – `Monday, 700 PM, 10 November:
 
6. The Aftermath September 18 to 20 1862 – Monday, 700 PM, 24 November:
 
7. Reassessing the Battle – Monday, 700 PM, 8 December: 

 

The Fourth HAAC is done and Dr. Slaughter conducted a tour of the battlefield on 24 October.  The Fifth HAAC will probably be 20-22 October 2026 and the battlefield tour will be Fredericksburg.

NATO’s misconception of Soviet Military Strategy

At the 2024 HAAC, Walker Gargagliano gave a presentation on “NATO’s Misconception of Critique of Western Wargames of NATO-WP Conflict.” This has now been turned into a paper that was published by the Journal of Strategic Studies. It is behind a paywall, but many of those who have access to a college library can probably take a look at it. The article is here: A bolt from the blue: NATO’s misconception of Soviet military strategy: Journal of Strategic Studies: Vol 0, No 0 – Get Access

The abstract reads:

Throughout the Cold War, both NATO policymakers and the general public expressed a fear of a surprise Soviet attack, shaping their military stance, funding, and procurements in Europe to counter this eventuality. However, the type of war the Soviet Armed Forces planned to wage with the West was of a vastly different character than often feared. The concept of undertaking a strategic surprise attack in Europe was completely alien to Soviet theory, which rather conceptualized war as an extended affair requiring an extended mobilization process in a war which would be fought with total, rather than limited, objectives.

Leavenworth Master’s Thesis on “Forecasting Approaches in Operations Desert Sheild and Desert Storm

In 2020 Major Aaron F. Anderson, a student at the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College in Fort Leavenworth Kansas, published a master’s thesis called “Forecasting Approaches in Operations Desert Sheild and Desert Storm.” It was just sent to me.  I was not aware of it even though the author quoted my book War by Numbers extensively. It is referenced 19 times in the paper, so of course, I have a bias towards it.  Anyhow a link to the 45-page paper is here: Forecasting Approaches in Operations Desert Shield and Desert Storm

Paper’s abstract: 

Fourth Presentation on Antietam tonight, 27 Oct. via Zoom at 700 PM

Fourth presentation on Antietam tonight, 27 October via Zoom at 7:00 PM (EST). It is the fourth in a series of seven presentations by Dr. James Slaughter on the Maryland Campaign of 1862. It gets into the actual fighting on the morning of September 17, 1862.

The current schedule is:

4. The Morning Battle September 17, 1862 – Monday, 700 PM, 29 October:
 
5. The Afternoon and Evening September 17, 1862 – `Monday, 700 PM, 10 November:
 
6. The Aftermath September 18 to 20 1862 – Monday, 700 PM, 24 November:
 
7. Reassessing the Battle – Monday, 700 PM, 8 December: 

 

The Fourth HAAC is done and Dr. Slaughter conducted a tour of the battlefield on 24 October.  The Fifth HAAC will probably be 20-22 October and the battlefield tour will be Fredericksburg.

P.S. Here are the first two presentations on Antietam and the Maryland Campaign of 1862 done by Dr. James F. Slaughter III.

1. Understanding Antietam: Part 1: The Strategic Situation in Late Summer 1862: Antietam and the Maryland Campaign of 1862 (part 1)

2.  Action Prior to Antietam: South Mountain and Harper’s Ferry: Antietam and the Maryland Campaign of 1862 (part 2)

Fourth HAAC starts tomorrow (21-23 October) in Tysons Corner

The Fourth HAAC starts tomorrow, 21 -23 October, in Tysons Corner.

Schedule is here: HAAC 2025: Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) – The Dupuy Institute

Payment options are here: Paying for the Fourth HAAC (21-23 October) – The Dupuy Institute

Eventbrite is here: Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) Tickets, Tue, Oct 21, 2025 at 9:00 AM | Eventbrite

Conference description is here:  The Fourth HAAC is scheduled for 21 – 23 October 2025 – The Dupuy Institute

Fourth HAAC starts in five days (Tuesday, 21 October)

The Fourth HAAC starts in five days (Tuesday, 21 October in Tysons Corner).

 
It is 56 presentations. Still have three open slots if anyone wants to add something at the last minute.
 
 
 
If you haven’t paid yet, now is a good time.
 
 
 

Antietam presentation cancelled tonight, rescheduled in two weeks

Sorry, but people have real lives, so we have to cancel the Antietam presentation for tonight and reschedule it to Monday after next (27 October). The current schedule is:

4. The Morning Battle September 17, 1862 – Monday, 700 PM, 29 October:
 
5. The Afternoon and Evening September 17, 1862 – `Monday, 700 PM, 10 November:
 
6. The Aftermath September 18 to 20 1862 – Monday, 700 PM, 24 November:
 
7. Reassessing the Battle – Monday, 700 PM, 8 December: 

 

The Fourth HAAC is 21-23 October and Dr. Slaughter will be conducting a tour of the battlefield on 24 October (see below). 

 

Fourth HAAC:

The Fourth HAAC schedule: HAAC 2025: Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) – The Dupuy Institute

Paying for Fourth HAAC: Paying for the Fourth HAAC (21-23 October) – The Dupuy Institute and Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) Tickets, Tue, Oct 21, 2025 at 9:00 AM | Eventbrite.

Conference description is here: The Fourth HAAC is scheduled for 21 – 23 October 2025 – The Dupuy Institute

We do offer a guided tour of the Antietam battlefield at the end of the HAAC conference on Friday October 24. It will also be conducted by Dr. James Slaughter. 

 

P.S. Here are the first two presentations on Antietam and the Maryland Campaign of 1862 done by Dr. James F. Slaughter III.

1. Understanding Antietam: Part 1: The Strategic Situation in Late Summer 1862: Antietam and the Maryland Campaign of 1862 (part 1)

2.  Action Prior to Antietam: South Mountain and Harper’s Ferry: Antietam and the Maryland Campaign of 1862 (part 2)

Fourth HAAC Schedule is updated to add Medical Session

We have updated the Fouth HAAC Schedule to add a “Biological Warfare and Medical Analysis” session: HAAC 2025: Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) – The Dupuy Institute.

It is on the third day, Thursday, 23 October. We still have four open slots in that session that we are looking for presenters for. If you are interested in presenting, please email me at LawrenceTDI@aol.com.