Mystics & Statistics

Two More Presentations on Armor Battles in the France 1940 Campaign

We are going to be doing two more presentations of the armor battles in the France 1940 campaign. They are all conducted by Dr. James Slaughter. The first one was two weeks ago. We did record it. The link is here: Tank Battles in France 1940: WWI and the Interwar Years. Unfortunately, because of work schedules, we will have to delay the next presentation until Wednesday 11 June.

The next presentation, covering the fighting in May 1940 is on Wednesday, 11 June, at 7:00 PM EST. The follow-up presentation will be two weeks later. They are open invitation via Zoom. The format is 30-45 minutes of presentation followed by questions and discussion. We are recording these presentations (I usually don’t record our community meetings).

The schedule and zoom links are:

Armor Battles France 1940 – 2: 11 June, Wednesday, 7:00 PM EST

https://us06web.zoom.us/j/83671891297?pwd=vzmJZHEZqfYBAXb0xBZukM72hyN5DA.1

Armor Battles France 1940 – 3: 25 June, Wednesday, 7:00 PM EST

https://us06web.zoom.us/j/88966838721?pwd=dtOO0Nwj5yqtATPZc8mKV5b3C36Vp7.1

Antietam 1862: 9 July, Wednesday, 7:00 PM EST

https://us06web.zoom.us/j/85687632247?pwd=pf8a9lZ1DNkrK9qrxmTOgkdOHk0lOU.1

 

We do offer a guided tour of the Antietam battlefield at the end of the HAAC conference on Friday October 24. It will also be conducted by Dr. James Slaughter. See April’s Schedule for the Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) 21 – 23 October 2025 – The Dupuy Institute and Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) Tickets, Tue, Oct 21, 2025 at 9:00 AM | Eventbrite.

Robert Helmbold has a second book out

Robert Helmbold, previously with RAND and a senior scientist at the Center for Army Analysis (CAA), has a new book coming out:

The Truth About Little Big Horn Finally Comes Out: Helmbold PhD, Robert L.: 9798280119437: Amazon.com: Books

It is his second book. His first one came out in 2021:

The Key to Victory: Machine Learning the Lessons of History: Helmbold PhD, Robert L.: 9798448616563: Amazon.com: Books

and

The Key to Victory: Machine Learning the Lessons of History – The Dupuy Institute

He is 93. Never too late to start publishing.

Three Presentations on Armor Battles in the France 1940 Campaign

We are going to be doing three presentations of the armor battles in the France 1940 campaign. They are all conducted by Dr. James Slaughter. The first one is tonight, Wednesday, 14 May, at 7:00 PM EST. The next presentations are every two weeks later. They are open invitation via Zoom. The format is 30-45 minutes of presentation followed by questions and discussion.

The schedule and zoom links are:

Armor Battles France 1940 – 1: 14 May, Wednesday, 7:00 PM EST

https://us06web.zoom.us/j/82470869174?pwd=0XV1U1UmLeItZ563COwguoKVUaY4Xx.1

Armor Battles France 1940 – 2: 28 May, Wednesday, 7:00 PM EST

https://us06web.zoom.us/j/83671891297?pwd=vzmJZHEZqfYBAXb0xBZukM72hyN5DA.1

Armor Battles France 1940 – 3: 11 June, Wednesday, 7:00 PM EST

https://us06web.zoom.us/j/88966838721?pwd=dtOO0Nwj5yqtATPZc8mKV5b3C36Vp7.1

Antietam 1862: 25 June, Wednesday, 7:00 PM EST

https://us06web.zoom.us/j/85687632247?pwd=pf8a9lZ1DNkrK9qrxmTOgkdOHk0lOU.1

 

We do offer a guided tour of the Antietam battlefield at the end of the HAAC conference on Friday October 24. It will also be conducted by Dr. James Slaughter. See April’s Schedule for the Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) 21 – 23 October 2025 – The Dupuy Institute and Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) Tickets, Tue, Oct 21, 2025 at 9:00 AM | Eventbrite.

Presentations on France 1940 and Antietam 1862

We have two presentations coming up this month on the Armor Battles in France in May 1940 on 14 May and on the Battle of Antietam on 28 May. We often host “community meetings” on a range of defense issues but limited the invite to those on the mailing list for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). This is the first time we have offered presentations to the general public.

1. The presentation on zoom for Armor Battles in France and Belgium in 1940 is at 7:00 PM EST, Wednesday, May 14 at: https://us06web.zoom.us/j/82470869174?pwd=0XV1U1UmLeItZ563COwguoKVUaY4Xx.1

2. The presentation on zoom for The Battle of Antietam is at 07:00 PM EST, Wednesday, May 28 at: https://us06web.zoom.us/j/85687632247?pwd=pf8a9lZ1DNkrK9qrxmTOgkdOHk0lOU.1

Both are presented by Dr. James Slaughter. The format is that he will present for 30 to 45 minutes, and then we will open the floor for questions and discussion.

We do offer a guided tour of the Antietam battlefield at the end of the HAAC conference on Friday October 24. It will also be conducted by Dr. James Slaughter. See April’s Schedule for the Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) 21 – 23 October 2025 – The Dupuy Institute and Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) Tickets, Tue, Oct 21, 2025 at 9:00 AM | Eventbrite.

April’s Schedule for the Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) 21 – 23 October 2025

The Fourth HAAC is scheduled for 21-23 October 2025. We currently have 39 presentations scheduled (and 2 group discussions). We are, of course, looking for more quality presentations. The current schedule is:

Schedule: Pike & Gallows Conference Center
Revised 17 May 2025

Day 1: Analysis of Conventional Combat

0900 – 0930 Introductory remarks – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

0930 – 1030 Studying Combat: The “Base of Sand” Problem – Dr. Shawn R. Woodford

1030 – 1130   Slouching Towards Wabash: The Withering of Historical Analysis in the American Profession of Arms – Ivan Torres (Jomini of the West, Major, U.S. Army, ret.)

1130 – 1230    Measuring the Value of Situational Awareness – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

1230 – 1400 Lunch

1400 – 1500   The History of TND’s models and theories – Dr. Shawn R. Woodford

1500 – 1600   Temporal and Geographic Patterns of Fatal Casualty Rates in WWI and WWII – Sasho Todorov, esquire

1600 – 1700   Difficulties in Measuring Morale and Effectiveness – Dr. Dermot Rooney (Wapentakes) – virtual

1700 – 1800   Price of Paradise – Dr. Iain Overton (AOAV) – virtual

Evening (1900): Group Dinner – Rangos

Day 2: Analysis of Unconventional Warfare

0900 – 1000    Iraq, Data, Hypotheses and Afghanistan (old) – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

1000 – 1100    Reserved for Dr. David Cuberes

1100 – 1200    The Truth About Little Big Horn Finally Comes Out – Dr. Robert Helmbold

1200 – 1300   Lunch

1300 – 1400   1916 Easter Rising – Robert A. Mosher

1400 – 1500   Terrorism and Afghanistan – Dr. Christopher Davis

1500 – 1600   Close Combat Overmatch Weapons (SLAMMER) – Joe Follansbee (Col., USA, ret.)

1600 – 1700   Group Discussion: The Next Middle East Wars

Evening (1900): Group Dinner – BJs

Day 3: Other Analysis of Warfare

0900 – 1000   Summoning the specter of “Beweglichkeit”: A critical analysis of the U.S. Army’s new FM 3-0 Operations and observed Ukrainian battlefield trends – Ivan Torres (Jomini of the West, Major, U.S. Army, ret.)

1000 – 1100    History’s Lessons on Technological Surprise in War – Dr. Alexander Kott

1100 – 1200   Results from the Taiwan Analytical Efforts – Alexandru Filips

1200 – 1300 Lunch

1300 – 1400    Revitalization of TDI – Joe Follansbee (Col., USA, ret.)

1400 – 1500   The Hermann Goeing Division in North Africa, Sicily and Salerno 1942-1943 and Measuring Combat Effectiveness – Dr. James Slaughter

1500 – 1600   Syrskyi’s Gambit: A Critical Analysis of Ukraine’s Kursk Offensive – Ivan Torres (Jomini of the West, Major, U.S. Army, ret.)

1600 – 1700   Group Discussion: Russo-Ukrainian War

1700 – 1715     Closing Remarks

Evening: Happy hour – Rangos

Schedule: Einstein Conference Room

Day 1: Naval Warfare Analysis

0930 – 1030   Naval Theory and War Causation – Alexandru Filip

1030 – 1130  Modeling the Invasion of Taiwan – Dr. Julian Spencer-Churchill, et al.

1130 – 1230  A Review of the CSIS gaming effort – Walker Gargagliano

1230-1400   Lunch

1400 – 1500   Modeling ATC Amphibious Landings on Taiwan – Dr. Julian Spencer-Churchill

1500 – 1600 Taipei Has Fallen!: Wargaming the Invasion of Taiwan – Clinton Rielly – virtual

1600 – 1700   Floating Fortresses: American Carriers Invulnerability to Battle Damage – Walker Gargagliano

1700 – 1800 Temporal and Geographic Patterns of Fatal Casualty Rates in WWI and WWII (part 2 or overflow presentation) – Sasho Todorov, esquire

Day 2: Analysis of Conventional Combat

0900 – 1000   The Manoeuvre Warfare Fraud – William F. Owen – virtual?

1000 – 1100    Salvation Only in Arms: A Critical Historical Analysis of Operational Maneuver during the 1814 Campaign in France – Ivan Torres (Jomini of the West, Major, U.S. Army, ret.)

1100 – 1200   Reserved – Dr. Dermot Rooney (Wapentakes) – virtual

1200 – 1300 Lunch

1300 – 1400   Quantifying Mahan’s Hypotheses – Dr. Julian Spencer Churchill

1400 – 1500    open

1500 – 1600   Systems Analysis and Strategy – Alexandru Filip

1600 – 1700   The New Science of Evidence and Causality – Dr. Douglas Samuelson

Day 2: Air Warfare Analysis

0900 – 1000   open

1000 – 1100   open

1100 – 1200   open 

1200 – 1300   Lunch

1300 – 1400   open

1400 – 1500   Aces at Kursk – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

1500 – 1600   open

1600 – 1700   open

Day 3: Other Analysis of Warfare

0900 – 1000   Isserson: The Architect of Victory – Dr. Richard Harrison

1000 – 1100   Audacity versus Friction: Evaluating Operational Autism in Operation Barbarossa. – Dr. Robert Kirchubel and Dr. Sorin Adam Matei (Purdue)

1100 – 1200   Reserved for Dr. James Slaughter

1200 – 1300   Lunch

1300 – 1400   The Red Army’s Plans for a Preemptive Attack in 1941 – Dr. Richard Harrison

1400 – 1500   New Advances in Digital Military Cartography – Gavin Ho, Joseph Hupy, Sorin Adam Matei and Robert Kirchubel.

1500 – 1600   Arctic Defense Concerns – Alexandru Filip

1600 – 1700   open 

 

Reserve presentations:

Measuring Human Factors – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

Breakpoints – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

 

 

Friday, October 11: Tour of a Civil War Battlefield – Antietam: bloodiest day of the U.S. Civil War (and in the Western Hemisphere?). – we will arrange transport there and back ($20 charge for tour).

See this link below for costs ($150), address, conference description, hotels, and call for presentations: The Fourth HAAC is scheduled for 21 – 23 October 2025 – The Dupuy Institute

Last year’s schedule is here:  October’s Revised Schedule for the Third Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) 8 – 10 October 2024 – The Dupuy Institute

The Hunting Falcon is now on sale in the U.S.

According to Amazon.com (U.S.), The Hunting Falcon: The story of WWI German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke has been available since 3 April. It was first offered for sale in the UK on 6 March 2025.

The list price is $39.95 and it is available from Amazon.com right now for $37.26. See: Amazon.com: The Hunting Falcon: The Story of WW1 German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke: 9781399085014: Lawrence, Christopher A, Karamales, Jay: Books

It is available in the UK via Amazon.com (UK) for £25.00 at: The Hunting Falcon: The Story of WW1 German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke: Amazon.co.uk: Lawrence, Christopher A, Karamales, Jay: 9781399085014: Books and directly from the publisher discounted to £25.00 at Pen and Sword Books: The Hunting Falcon – Hardback.

Hans-Joachim Buddecke’s story start before the war in Indianapolis, working for his American uncle (later the grandfather of author Kurt Vonnegut Jr.). He became the third German ace to be awarded the Blue Max (after Immelmann and Boelcke) after clearing the skies over Gallipoli. See: Award Dates for the Blue Max (1916) – The Dupuy Institute. He was the pilot who shot down Lawrence of Arabia’s younger brother (no relationship to me).

The argument for Taiwan

I do sometimes send out my blog posts for comment to people I know. They are not always hastily written while I am downing my first cup of coffee. The blog post What is more important: Ukraine or Taiwan ? – The Dupuy Institute was one such blog post. Dr. Julian Spencer-Churchill of Concordia University in Quebec sent the following response. He is Canadian. I thought it was worth posting:

 
———–
An effects based analysis would suggest that Taiwan is more important for the US specifically.
 
A war with China to get Taiwan will be conventionally larger, strategically (nuclear) smaller, a medium likelihood of a resulting tactical nuclear use, provide an unsupervised Pacific SSBN bastion which is currently driving Chinese caution, and provide projection for China as a global maritime power, a precondition for great power status as it is free to interfere in counter-balancing major powers on other continents with a blue water navy, and China is probably a generation (10-20 years) away from democratization, two or three generations from liberal democratization, given greater liberalism in the under 40 age cohort than Russia.
 
A war with Russia in Ukraine is conventionally small, is linked to a much larger nuclear arsenal that is escalatorily associated with a higher likelihood of tactical nuclear use, it does not provide Russia any critical advantages in the accumulation of resources or people, has little effect on changing Russia’s relative power status, and is a generation away from liberal-democratization because of its culture of defensive nationalism that is compatible with the liberalism of the under 40 age cohort, but which will require decentralization of collapse of Russia’s ethnic regions. 
 
But why not confront both ?  
———

 

What is more important: Ukraine or Taiwan ?

A little geo-political discussion here: What is more important 1) to support the defense of Ukraine or 2) to support the defense of Taiwan?

 

Some stats:

                         Population                                       GDP                         Area
Ukraine         33,443,000 (2024 est.)    189.827 billion    603,628 sq.km (233,062 sq. miles)
Taiwan           23,894,394 (2022 est.)    751.930 billion      36,197 sq.km (13,976 sq. miles)

 

                           Per Capita GDP      Per Capital GDP (PPP)     Gini (2022/23)     HDI (2021/22)
Ukraine               5,759 (2025 est.)       20,756                                 25.6                 0.734
Taiwan                32,339 (2023 est.)    72,485                                  34.2                  0.926
United States    86,601 (2024 est.)    86,601                                 41.6                   0.927
                            
                             Active Personnel     Reserve Personnel           Budget
Ukraine            1,260,000                    2,700,000                            64.8 billion
Taiwan                  150,000                     1,657,000                            19.1 billion  

 

Now, probably the most significant factor is who are their neighbors. In the case of Ukraine, it borders the NATO countries of Romania, Hungary and Poland and the non-NATO countries of Russian, Belarus and Moldova (and Transnistria). One can argue that it is a gateway to NATO and the EU.   

Taiwan only borders China. It is a distance over water to the Philippines or South Korea or Japan. Much further to Australia and New Zealand. 

Therefore one can make the argument that Ukraine’s geo-political position is far more significant than that of Taiwan.

One can, of course, make the argument that they are both significantly important for U.S. national security.

 

 

No Peace in our Time ?

It does not look like that any substantive and meaningful peace agreement will be happening in the Russo-Ukrainian War in the first half of 2025. It looks like the fighting will continue during the spring and summer of 2025. Perhaps substantive discussion can restart in the fall of 2025.

The current status of peace negotiations is that they have de-facto agreed to cease bombing each other’s energy structures. There is no written agreement on this. They are still bombing everything else, with volleys of 100+ drones and missiles being launched at Ukraine every few days and dozens of civilians in cities far from the front line being killed or wounded.

There is an also a minerals exploitation agreement being discussed between the U.S. and Ukraine, that has yet to be finalized and signed. Something will probably happen with that as Ukraine needs to reach some kind of settlement with the Trump administration to guarantee minimal levels of support. 

There is also an ongoing discussion of a Black Sea Truce. Not sure that is very significant as Ukraine controls the western Black Sea and is regularly shipping grain and other products in/out of Odessa. 

U.S. support for Ukraine in FY2026 (which starts in October 2025) is still undetermined. Congress passed a continuing resolution to cover the rest of FY2025 and there is not a clear bill, let alone a clear Ukrainian aid bill set up for FY2026. The House and the Senate appear to have very different ideas of what should be funded, as of course, do the Republicans and Democrats. The House is currently split 220-213 with 2 vacant seats. The Senate is currently split 53-47, with both houses of congress controlled by the Republicans. The way the political winds are blowing at the moment, it does appear like the Republicans are going to lose control of the House in November 2026.  Not sure how all this impacts aid to Ukraine but it is possible that it will terminated in FY2026 and reinstated in CY2007.

Meanwhile, on the fighting front, the weather will be getting better come the second half of May and ground operations can start in earnest then. Not sure what will be happening, but suspect Russian will continue offensive operations in Kursk province and in the Donbas. They still do not completely control the four oblasts that they claim (and have formally annexed), with them controlling almost all of Lugansk, the majority of Donetsk, and the minority (and not the capital cities) of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts. They also control Crimea and Sevastopol. They clearly want to expand their control of these four oblasts for the sake of future negotiations. Obviously, Ukraine would also be served to retake land, but not sure what offensives they are considering for 2025.

Therefore, it appears that the war will continue unabated until the autumn rains.