Mystics & Statistics

Last two Antietam presentations are scheduled this Wednesday (the 21st) and Wednesday after next (4 Feb.)

The Antietam 7 and Antietam 8 presentations are scheduled this Wednesday at 7:00 PM on 21 January and Wednesday after next at &:00 PM on 4 February. The links for them are here:

21 January: https://us06web.zoom.us/j/84169372630?pwd=IvSdmZa3dVGPrMFKanNjNeFa9Y1Sf2.1

4 February: https://us06web.zoom.us/j/89148411099?pwd=M6XcmIbVmbsovbE0bVGjespUzZI75G.1

Antietam 1 and 2 are on our YouTube channel.

Antietam 3 – 6 have been recorded and will be posted up soon.

Dr. James Slaughter did give a tour of the battlefield at the last HAAC. For the upcoming HAAC he will be doing Fredericksburg. The link for the Fifth HAAC is here: The Fifth HAAC is Scheduled for 20 – 22 October 2026 – The Dupuy Institute

The Event Brite page for it is here: Fifth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) Tickets, Tue, Oct 20, 2026 at 8:00 AM | Eventbrite

Four Friendly Fire Reports

I did a blog past month fishing around for what else has been done on Friendly Fire: A Friendly Fire Discussion – The Dupuy Institute.

As a result of that post asking about where else had been done, Paul Syms (UK), a former Dstl analyst, sent me the following five files. With his permission they are posted here:

First is Chuck Hawkins’ 1991 paper on the issue: “Friendly Fire Casualties: A Vietnam War Perspective”. This effort I was aware of.

C F Hawkins 1991 RVN FF

Next is Gene Visco’s 1995 presentation at ISMOR in the UK: “Friendly Fire Data and Analysis.” This effort I was also familiar with. I had a copy of different briefing from him. At one point was in my lower right hand desk drawer. I probably have a copy of that briefing somewhere in my files.

Visco 1995 Friendly fire 12 ISMOR

Chuck Hawkins and Gene Visco really pushed to get a proper analysis of the subject. I was aware of their efforts. They were unable to get a proper study funded by the U.S. DOD. Chuck Hawkins was the former VP of DMSI (Trevor Dupuy’s company before TDI). Gene Visco was with DUSA (OR) until it was shut down.

Next were two British efforts I was not familiar with, one from 2006 and one a study dated 2008 done by Paul Syms:

Gadsden & Outteridge 2006 Friendly fire HA 23 ISMOR V1.0

Syms 2008 25 ISMOR FF HA slides V1.0

Syms 2008 25 ISMOR FF HA paper V1.0

This last one is presented as both slides (34 slides) and an 8-page paper. It is pretty extensive. The slides are definitely worth flipping through.

I particularly like slides 28-29: Database size, and also the next two slides. In parallels some of the points I made in my one Phalanx article: Phalanx Article: What We Have Learned from Doing Historical Analysis – The Dupuy Institute

Stefan Korshak and the Siege of Mariupol book

While I am fairly well known in the historical analysis and military history community, my co-author of the Mariupol book is not. This video on a panel on the trauma of Ukraine’s children does provide a brief introduction of him and the book at around 15:00: War in Europe: The Trauma of Ukraine’s Children. What’s being done, what can be done to help?

It does sort of understate his qualifications. He was a U.S. Army officer in the 1980s, has a masters degree from Yale, and served as an OSCE representative in Mariupol for seven years (2014-2022), observing the ceasefire there and regularly meeting with units of the Ukrainian Army, Azov Regiment, Donets People’s Republic Army and the Russian Army. A little bit more than just a reporter.

The Fifth HAAC is Scheduled for 20 – 22 October 2026

The Fifth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) is schedule for 20-22 October 2026 in Tysons Corner, VA. Same locate, same format as the previous HAACs.

The schedule for the previous (Fourth) HAAC is here: HAAC 2025: Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) – The Dupuy Institute

The developing schedule for the Fifth HAAC is here: HAAC 2026: Fifth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) – The Dupuy Institute

The Eventbrite listing for the Fifth HAAC is here: Fifth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) Tickets, Tue, Oct 20, 2026 at 8:00 AM | Eventbrite

Feel free to email me at LawrenceTDI@aol.com if you want to schedule a presentation.

9 Books

Finally here is a picture of all nine of my published books. It includes two copies of The Battle for Kyiv, as one is the hardback and one is the paperback version. The paperback version does have some revisions and an expanded photo section.

We are looking to add two more books to that collection in the next six months. An additional book on the Russo-Ukrainian War should be out in the next 2 to 3 months, and The Battle of Tolstoye Woods should be out hopefully this spring. The editing process on all my books is slow, primarily because the large amount of charts, tables and tabular data in them that are a pain to edit and proof.

“Floating Fortresses – American Carriers’ Extraordinary Resilience to Battle Damage”

One of the presenters at our last two HAACs and a Dupuy Institute fellow has just published an article in the Naval War College Review. It is called “Floating Fortresses – American’s Carriers’ Extraordinary Resilience to Battle Damage” by Walker Gargagliano. This was spurred on by a conversation at Rangos (my usual hang-out) over claimed carrier losses in an analysis of potential losses in a Taiwan scenario. It was presented at our last conference and is now a published piece.

The article is here: “Floating Fortresses—American Carriers’ Extraordinary Resilience to Bat” by Walker Gargagliano

Abstract

On the basis of Cold War–era munitions accidents and World War II combat experience, U.S. carriers of today are far more resistant to battle damage than commonly believed.

 

The announcement for the Fifth HAAC is here:  Fifth HAAC is Scheduled for 20 – 22 October 2026 – The Dupuy Institute

We are scheduling presentations. If you are interested, please email me at LawrenceTDI@aol.com

Four books on Kursk

I have three books published on the Battle of Kursk and one coming out next year (The Batte of Tolstoye Woods).

The Battle of Kusk was the largest battle of World War II. You would not get that sense from the military history section of most bookstores. Anyhow, there were four parts to the battle. The German offensive in the south from 4 to 24 July 1943, the German offensive in the north for 5 – 12 July 1943, the Soviet counteroffensive around Orel from 12 July to 23 August and the Soviet counteroffensive around Kharkov from 3 August to 23 August. My books are mostly about the German offensive in the south. I have consider doing one or two about the Battle(s) of Kharkov, but I have been distracted by the war that started in that same area in 2022.

I do have a fourth book coming out next year called The Battle of Tolstoye Woods. This one actually covers the Soviet counterattack that actually worked and stopped a German panzer corps. Everyone tends to focus on the Battle of Prokhorovka, but there were three German armored corps attacking in the south, and they all had to be stopped. This book is about the Red Army halting the 48th Panzer Corps, which was as large as the SS Panzer Corps.

Anyhow, not sure if I will get around to a fifth Kursk book. Might.



P.S. I do think my original book is the largest history book ever written: Did I Just Write the Largest History Book Ever? — History News Network

I have not submitted it to the Guinness World Records.

P.P.S. Here is the link to the “Other Battle of Kursk” which has been posted to Amazon.com (UK). It will be The Battle of Tolstoye Woods: The Other Battle of Kursk: Lawrence, Christopher A.: 9780811773737: Amazon.com: Books   and   The Other Battle of Kursk: Amazon.co.uk: Lawrence, Christopher A.: 9780811773737: Books

Two books

These two books are my two analytical books. Both quantitative in approach. Notice the use of the word “Understanding” in both titles.

American’s Modern Wars cover our analysis of insurgencies and counterinsurgencies based upon an analysis of 89 post-WWII cases. There has been very little quantitative analysis of insurgencies. This is the most extensive effort I am aware of. We were blessed with budget and a staff that at one point included ten people. It is amazing what you can do when you have manpower (read $$$).

War by Numbers is our analysis of conventional warfare. It was built from a series of studies we did over the years for the DOD and other contractors. Probably the most extensive qualitative analysis of aspects of conventional war that has been done in the last few decades. Again, helps to have budget.

These are my two “theoretical” books. I am halfway through a book called More War by Numbers. I have stopped work on it to concentrate on other tasks. May get back to in 2027.

The analysis for America’s Modern Wars was based upon 89 post-WWII insurgencies, interventions and peacekeeping operations. We did expand the database to well over 100 cases but never went back and re-shot the analysis due to budget cuts. It would be my desire to expand the database up to around 120 cases, update the 20 or so that were on-going (our data collection stopped in 2008). and then re-shoot and expand the analysis. This would be a good time to do this instead of again waiting until we are in another insurgency and yet again chasing our tail. Our track record on these have not been good, we lost Vietnam, we lost Afghanistan and Iraq was touch-and-go for a while. While we are not in the middle of another insurgency is a good time to study and learn about them based upon real world experience (AKA history).

Sorry to get preachy, but I really don’t like losing wars.

Four Books

Just got my author copies for a few of my books. Decided to post them all up.



1. Hunting Falcon – available U.S. April 3, 2025

2. Aces at Kursk – available U.S. September 30, 2024

3. Battle for Kyiv (paperback) – Hardback available U.S. January 18, 2024 – paperback available UK 4 December 2025. Will be available U.S. February 28, 2026.

4. Siege of Mariupol – Available UK 27 November 2025. Available U.S. January 30, 2026.

Can order directly from the publisher: Pen and Sword Books: The Siege of Mariupol – Hardback

Can order from UK Amazon.com: The Siege of Mariupol: The Azovstal Steel Plant and Ukraine’s Battle for Survival : Christopher A Lawrence, Stefan Korshak: Amazon.co.uk: Books


The piano in the background is an August Foerster. Made in Loebau, Germany since 1859. This one is from East Germany (1949-1990). Country dissolved, but the piano is just fine.

Paperback version of The Battle for Kyiv is out in the UK

The paperback version of The Battle for Kyiv is now out in the UK. It has been slightly updated from the hardback version. In particular it has included an updated account of the Battle of Chernihiv and an expanded picture section. The paperback version will be available in the U.S. come 28 February 2026.

Also The Siege of Mariupol has been out in the UK since 27 November. It will be available in the U.S. come 30 January 2026.