Mystics & Statistics

Kharg Island

Kharg Island is in the news a lot, so let’s talk about it. It is the primary shipping hub for Iranian oil located near the northeast end of the Gulf. It is 107 miles (172 kilometers) from Iraq. Just to state the obvious, it is no where near the straits of Hormuz (it is 410 miles, 660 kilometers, away from them).

 

The island can actually be seen on this map near Iran, opposite of Kuwait. If I had a graphics person, we would add a red dot to the map.

It is a coral outcrop some 16-17 miles (25-28 kilometers) off the coast of Iran. It is 5 miles long (8 kilometers) and 2.5 to 3 miles wide (4-5 kilometers). The highest elevation is 230 feet (70 meters). It has its own supply of fresh water and the waters around it are deep. There are a number of nearby offshore oil fields that are piped directly to the island. It is the sea port for the export of 90% of Iran’s oil products. It has the ability to store up to 30 million barrels of oil. It has a population for 8,193 as of 2016, It is the home of several archaeological sites, including a Christian monastery.

 

Now, the U.S. is assembling forces. On the way to the Gulf is the 31st MEU (based in Okinawa), which will be arriving maybe later this week. It is based round the amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli (LHA-7). These are small carriers. Along with it is the USS New Orleans (LPD-18). See: UPDATED: Tripoli ARG, 31st MEU Transit Malacca Strait En Route to the Middle East – USNI News.

Being sent there from the west coast is the 11th MEU, based out of Camp Pendelton CA, along with the USS Boxer (LHD-4), USS Comstock (LSD-45) and USS Portland (LPD-27). It will take three weeks or longer to arrive.

A Marine Expeditionary Unit is a brigade size force of 2,200 that includes command elements, a reinforced infantry battalion, a composite helicopter squadron and a logistics combat element. It can land a reinforced battalion. The U.S. has 7 MEU’s. Two are soon expected to be in the gulf region. Besides landing these MEU’s, the Marine Corps does not have any independent capability to conduct an opposed landing of a brigade-size force or larger. See: Marine Expeditionary Unit – Wikipedia

It is close enough to Iraq that forces could be inserted by helicopter directly from there or from a number of other spots in the Persian Gulf. If operations were done against Kharg, it would probably be an air assault vice an amphibious operation, even though certainly Marines would be involved. I gather there are some army assets in the region including the 2nd Brigade, 10th Mountain Division, and the 2nd Battalion of the 127th Infantry Regiment (Wisconsin National Guard). I assume they are both located in Iraq and Syria. (See:10th Mountain brigade to deploy to Middle East, Army says | Stars and Stripes and Army’s 10th Mountain Division gets orders to deploy to Middle East ). This provides four additional maneuver battalions. Additional army assets are being sent to the gulf, including helicopters. There are rumors that one brigade of the 82nd Airborne Division might also be sent.

So potentially in three weeks are so we will have six maneuver battalions available for operations in either Kharg, Isfaran (see: Isfaran – The Dupuy Institute) or Qeshm or other islands in the Straits of Hormuz.

E. B. Vandiver, long serving head of CAA, has passed away

E. B. Vandiver, known to everyone as “Van”, passed away this last week at the age of 87. He became the director of the Concepts Analysis Agency in 1984. I first briefed him in 1987 when I was leading the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base (ACSDB). He retired from full-time work in 2012, promoted up to being “Director Emeritus.” CAA had now become the Center for Army Analysis and had moved to its own building in Fort Belvoir.

A bio: Edgar Bishop Vandiver III (born September 19, 1938), American operations research analyst | World Biographical Encyclopedia

I gather there will be services in Fairfax, VA on Wednesday, March 25.

Obituary: Edgar Bishop Vandiver III Obituary (1938-2026) | Fairfax, VA

As he was the head of the Army’s premier analytical office for almost 30 years, he had an impact on the army and its development from the 1980s, through the collapse of the Soviet Union, through the Iraq and Afghanistan wars and after. The head of CAA started as a major general slot back in 1973. Vandiver filled that role for 28 years. 

Past Directors:

  • MG Hal Hallgren January 1973 – February 1976
  • MG Ennis C. Whitehead Jr. April 1976 – May 1980
  • MG Edward B. Atkenson July 1980 – February 1982
  • Mr. David C. Hardison February 1982 – September 1984
  • Mr. E. B. Vandiver III September 1984 – November 2012
  • Dr. William Forrest Crain November 2012 – May 2020

Current Director: Dr. Steven Alexander Stoddard

Wikipeida article on CAA: Center for Army Analysis – Wikipedia

In his almost 30 years at CAA, he tended to make his impact through his management and direct conversation, as opposed to issuing papers and reports. I always found this oral history project done in 2005 to be of interest:

Military Operations Research Society (MORS) Oral History Project Interview of E.B. Vandiver, III, FS on JSTOR

Anyhow, we crossed paths a lot over the decades, although we did not know each other personally. The first major project I worked on, the ACSDB, was funded by CAA and regularly briefed to Van starting in 1987. The Kursk Data Base project I worked on was funded by CAA and was the source for four of my books (my fourth book on Kursk is coming out this fall). We were asked by him to do the Enemy Prisoner of Wars (EPW) studies and the three Urban Warfare studies among other projects. We ended up do the Iraq Casualty Estimate for him in 2004. That work is summarized in my book America’s Modern Wars. Certainly, half of my book War by Numbers was as a result of CAA funding. It was a productive relationship that lasted 22 years. Certainly his willingness to take me seriously when I first started working in this industry in 1987 and his willingness to continue taking me seriously after Trevor Dupuy passed away in 1995, went a long way in being able to do the work that I desired and in keeping The Dupuy Institute alive. 

My last conversation with him was in 2009 or so as the budget was in decline and there was little funding left. I did acknowledge him in several of my books. In the end, without Vandiver at CAA, I would not have had the career I had and could not have done the explorations that I did. He tended to provide budget and let us work the projects as we best felt. He always supported the value of historical research and historical analysis. He had a very significant impact on the community.

French Air Power 1918/1919 – this Wednesday

The first of a series of eight presentations on French Air Power 1918-1940 by Dr. James Slaughter. This one covers 1918/1919. It is on Wednesday, 18 March, 7:00 PM (EST) via zoom.

The Zoom link is here: https://us06web.zoom.us/j/86263186380?pwd=8hFYnQhOP7Ne3aWTE5pmW4u0kvugId.1

The whole series is here: French Air Power 1918-1940 – The Dupuy Institute

The call for presentations for the Fifth HAAC is here: Call for Presentations for the Fifth HAAC, 20 – 22 October 2026 – The Dupuy Institute

 

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Isfaran

Isfaran is the third largest city in Iran. It has a population of around 2,238,000 (2025 estimate) and a metro area of almost 4 million (3,989,070 2025 estimate). It is kind of in the middle of nowhere. It is 270 miles (440 kilometers) south of Tehran and 197 miles (318 kilometers) from the Persian Gulf.

The reason it has people’s attention is that in addition to all its industry (some of it defense), it is suspected of being the primary location for Iran’s nuclear weapon development program and where it stores most of its enriched uranium (in June 2022 the IAEA reported that 90% of Iran’s most highly enriched uranium was moved to Isfaran). We have obviously destroyed a lot of their gear and equipment, but we have not eliminated their enriched uranium. They supposedly have enough enriched uranium for six nuclear weapons (IAEA in September 2008). It is believed to be buried near Isfaran. Therefore, some people are discussing a ground operation.

The uranium is 60% enriched. At around 90% enriched it becomes usable for weapon use. Therefore this is a potential threat, not an actual threat. They reportedly have around 200 kilograms (441 pounds) of it.  Uranium is heavy. so I gather this makes up only 0.37 cubic feet (10.5 cubic centimeters) of material. This is not a huge cache.

The city is some 197 miles (318 kilometers) from the Persian Gulf, 590 miles (950 kilometers) from deeper water shelf of the Gulf of Oman (the more likely place our carriers are going to operate from) and around 232 miles (373 kilometers) from the Iraqi border.

It is not conveniently located for any ground operations or sea-based insertion. Caracas was located on the Caribbean Sea and that was a high-risk operation. This is located significantly inland and away from any borders.

Persia does have the distinct history of being an unconquered independent country for 1,375 years. There is a reason for that, some of that related to geography.

View of Isfaran and Naqsh-e Jahan Square (Pedram Forouzanfar, 23 April 2020)

French Air Power 1918-1940

Courtesy of Dr. James Slaughter, we are presenting a new 8-part lecture series on the French Air Force leading up to the 1940 campaign. They will be presented every other Wednesday at 7:00 PM (EST) via Zoom staring 18 March (next week). As always, it will be recorded and posted to YouTube.

The links for the eight presentations are:

1. March 18: 1918/1919 – https://us06web.zoom.us/j/86263186380?pwd=8hFYnQhOP7Ne3aWTE5pmW4u0kvugId.1

2. April 1: 20s and the Rif War –  https://us06web.zoom.us/j/89471662474?pwd=IIoobuk6pNyRvyjnSodlgKaHnFqgEY.1

3. April 15: Late 20s to Air Force independence – https://us06web.zoom.us/j/82767463706?pwd=qSJpzw2OiCr61CCRZ0f6nSVz5tzRCN.1

4. April 29: Aircraft and Industry 1934 to 1940 – https://us06web.zoom.us/j/86389557188?pwd=CqKeUajYxXiiw8al9FqrtBCXTbUfzC.1

5. May 13: Doctrine and Intelligence 1934-1940 – https://us06web.zoom.us/j/83581419598?pwd=V2Pncrzxk686uy6ahVa7lT0M8GVPSu.1

6. May 27: The Spanish Civil War – https://us06web.zoom.us/j/87873302892?pwd=CxXR7quHmysDYl6S8xeOM73qDo6KwI.1

7. June 10: Politics – https://us06web.zoom.us/j/82312904908?pwd=hThCR8854TXLDessozm3w8MrUNydYW.1

8. June 24: Battle of France – https://us06web.zoom.us/j/85640643737?pwd=LNPVDrX9gtwOJIGWCDGB1zRq83m7GO.1

 

Jamie Slaughter’s previous eight lectures on Antietam and the Maryland Campaign of 1862 are here: https://www.youtube.com/@thedupuyinstitute6570

Also there are his four lectures and Tanks Battle in France 1940: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCjAjdv7fvk&t=386s

He will also be conducting the Fredericksburg tour as part of the Fifth HAAC: The Fifth HAAC: Conference Description – The Dupuy Institute

We are still looking for presentations for the Fifth HAAC: Call for Presentations for the Fifth HAAC, 20 – 22 October 2026 – The Dupuy Institute

 

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The Fifth HAAC: Conference Description

I have run the conference the same way at the same locale for last five years. For those not familiar with this, let me provide some links:

The conference description: The Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17-19 October 2023 in Tysons Corner, VA – The Dupuy Institute

Accommodations: Hotels for the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17-19 October 2023 – The Dupuy Institute

Cost (still the same): Cost of the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17 -19 October 2023 – The Dupuy Institute

Eventbrite link: Fifth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) Tickets, Tuesday, Oct 20 from 8 am to 6 pm | Eventbrite

2026 Schedule: HAAC 2026: Fifth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) – The Dupuy Institute

 

Call for Presentations for the Fifth HAAC, 20 – 22 October 2026

This is a call to everyone out there for proposed presentations for the upcoming Fifth HAAC, in Tysons Corner, VA on 20-22 October 2026. The announcement for the Fifth HAAC is here: The Fifth HAAC is Scheduled for 20 – 22 October 2026 – The Dupuy Institute

The current schedule is here: HAAC 2026: Fifth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) – The Dupuy Institute

The format is usually we reserve an hour slot, giving you 45 minutes (or less) for the presentation and 15 minutes (or more) for questions and answers and discussion. Most people use power point, some just speak. Format is up to the presenter.  I do not require abstracts, bios, etc. Prefer to keep things simple. Can do virtual presentations but prefer in person. We are located near DC.

If you are interested in presenting, please email me at LawrenceTDI@aol.com.

 

Air Power over the Rhine 1940

Air Power over the Rhine: The Luftwaffe, the French Air Force and the Battle of France will be presented by Dr. James F. Slaughter III on WW2 TV at: Airpower over the Rhine: The Luftwaffe, the French Air Force, and the Battle of France

Dr. James Slaughter, in addition to doing eight videos on Antietam and the Maryland Campaign for us, also has done four videos for us on the armor battles in France 1940.  He will be starting shortly a series of videos on the French air force in 1940.

Antietam and Maryland Campaign of 1862: All eight presentations on the Antietam and the Maryland Campaign of 1862 – The Dupuy Institute

Tank Battles of the France 1940 Campaign: All Four Presentations on the Tank Battles of the France 1940 Campaign are now on YouTube – The Dupuy Institute