Mystics & Statistics

Oh…and we just inserted a Marine Battery into Syria

OK, we have just set up a fire base in Syria: Marines-arrive-syria-artillery-support

An artillery battery from the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit has been deploying to Syria. Obviously a Marine battery and “support elements” will number “more than several hundred” as the article states. Added to the Army Rangers in Manbij and the 503 U.S. troops that were authorized, and we may already have over a thousand troops in Syria.

Sending More Troops to Afghanistan

Well, the head of the U.S. Central Command General Joseph Votel says that we need more troops in Afghanistan: Afghanistan-require-more-troops

This is not a particularly surprising statement. We currently have 8,400 there. This does not include U.S. contractors, U.S. police trainers and such, which still have a reduced presence there. I wonder what the proposed level will be. Last month the U.S. Afghanistan commander General John Nicholson said several thousand more troops were needed.

Anyhow, this is not a surprising conclusion. See America’s Modern Wars, in particular the chapter on Afghanistan; although the focus of our analysis was the number of troops required to fight an insurgency, vice the number of foreign trainers needed to support the indigenous troops fighting an insurgency.

I am guessing as both Nicholson and Votel have said it that it is now administration policy.

New U.S. Boots On The Ground In Syria

U.S. Stryker combat vehicle alleged to belong to the U.S. Army 3/75th Rangers spotted near Manbij, Syria [Photo via Qalaat Al Mudiq/Twitter]

Following recent reports on social media that combat vehicles associated with the U.S. Army’s 3rd Battalion, 75th Ranger Regiment were spotted moving from Iraqi Kurdistan toward the Syrian village of Manbij last weekend, The Washington Post is saying that U.S. Marine forces have now been deployed to Syria. The Marines are reportedly establishing a firebase from which they can support U.S.-sponsored Syrian Kurdish forces poised to attack the Daesh-held city of Raqaa.

Bloomberg is reporting that the U.S. forces deployed to Manbij are part of a coordinated effort with Russia to thwart a possible offensive by Turkish forces to take the town, which is held by Syrian Kurds. The Russians brokered a deal with the Syrian forces to establish a buffer zone around Manbij, which U.S. Army Rangers will help man. Turkish forces launched an attack in conjunction with the Free Syrian Army on Daesh fighters in northern Syria last August. The U.S.-Russian move is perceived as an attempt to prevent the Turks from attacking the Syrian Kurds, who the Turks believe are aligned with Turkish Kurdish groups waging an insurgency against the Turkish government.

U.S. Special Operations Forces elements have been operating on the ground in support of Syrian rebels since October 2015; these have been quietly supplemented by conventional U.S. Army and Marine detachments, according to previous reports The new U.S. ground force deployments have come with no public debate or forewarning by the Trump administration.

F-22 vs F-15

Hard to pass by this article: http://www.businessinsider.com/watch-one-f-22-five-f-15s-2017-3

This video at the end shows one F-22 in a simulated exercise in 2003 against five F-15s. Spoiler alert: The F-22 wins. Apparently the F-15s could not see or get a lock on the Raptor, effectively allowing it to freely shot them without receiving any return fire (meaning missiles).

This has also been the case in the past, like in the 1980s when U.S. F-14s engaged Libyan MIGs over the Gulf of Sirte.

Fighting in Mosul

The fighting continues in Mosul as the Iraqi coalition slowly advances: iraqi-forces-see-off-counter-attack-mosul

On Tuesday they recaptured the provincial government headquarters, the central bank branch and a museum. The museum was completely empty of all artifacts according to an Iraqi Major General.

The general also noted that most of the fighters that fought around the governorate building were local. He stated that an order was issued for foreign fighters to withdraw.

Makes you wonder if we are nearing the end of this campaign.

Blog post update (around 11 AM EST this morning): leader-baghdadi-abandons-mosul-fight

 

Mustard Gas

ISIL appears to be using Mustard Gas filled mortar rounds: Iraqi-families-devastated-by-chemical-attacks-in-mosul

Early in the Syrian Civil War, the government of Syria used chemical weapons on its own population. I am one of these people who felt the U.S. and international community should have intervened in the first year of the war in response to Asad’s use of chemical weapons. We chose not to…..

Churchill on Alien Life

Again, totally unrelated to anything we usually blog about (and I am not quite ready to create an “alien life” category for the blog), but in 1939 Winston Churchill wrote a never published essay on intelligent life in the universe. Winston-Churchills-aliens-essay

At the time, the accepted theory in science was that planets formed when two stars passed closely to each other, creating a stream of gas that then formed the Solar System. The interesting argument Churchill presents is: “But this speculation depends upon the hypothesis that planets were formed in this way. Perhaps they were not,” wrote Churchill. “We know there are millions of double stars, and if they could be formed, why not planetary systems?”

and

“I, for one, am not so immensely impressed by the success we are making of our civilization here that I am prepared to think we are the only spot in this immense universe which contains living, thinking creatures, or that we are the highest type of mental and physical development which has ever appeared in the vast compass of space and time,” he wrote.