Excellence in Historical Research and Analysis
Excellence in Historical Research and Analysis
ISIL appears to be using Mustard Gas filled mortar rounds: Iraqi-families-devastated-by-chemical-attacks-in-mosul
Early in the Syrian Civil War, the government of Syria used chemical weapons on its own population. I am one of these people who felt the U.S. and international community should have intervened in the first year of the war in response to Asad’s use of chemical weapons. We chose not to…..
Again, totally unrelated to anything we usually blog about (and I am not quite ready to create an “alien life” category for the blog), but in 1939 Winston Churchill wrote a never published essay on intelligent life in the universe. Winston-Churchills-aliens-essay
At the time, the accepted theory in science was that planets formed when two stars passed closely to each other, creating a stream of gas that then formed the Solar System. The interesting argument Churchill presents is: “But this speculation depends upon the hypothesis that planets were formed in this way. Perhaps they were not,” wrote Churchill. “We know there are millions of double stars, and if they could be formed, why not planetary systems?”
and
“I, for one, am not so immensely impressed by the success we are making of our civilization here that I am prepared to think we are the only spot in this immense universe which contains living, thinking creatures, or that we are the highest type of mental and physical development which has ever appeared in the vast compass of space and time,” he wrote.
Nice summary article from BBC. Basically, nothing new to report for the last week, but this article has great maps: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-37702442
They are still talking about taking several more months to take the surrounded city. They are reporting 1,096 and 694 injured in Nineveh province since the start of October.
The Special Media Archives Services Division of the National Archives and Records Administration (NARA) in Washington, D.C. announced on it’s blog, The Unwritten Record, the recent opening of two new series in Record Group 242: National Archives Collection of Foreign Records Seized. The new series are German Situation Maps of the Western Front, 1944-1945 (NAID 40432392) and Various German World War II Maps, 1939-1945 (NAID 40480105).
The collections contain photographic reproductions of a full map of Germany including how many states in Germany existed at the time, as well as reproductions of various daily situation report maps created by the Oberkommando der Wehrmacht (Armed Forces High Command) and Oberkommando des Heeres (Army High Command) to brief Adolph Hitler and senior German leaders. They show friendly (blue) and enemy (red) forces down to the division and detachment level. The original maps were captured by U.S. forces, which were later duplicated and then returned to the Germans.
Maps. Beautiful Maps
The NARA blog post includes several wonderful, high-quality digital scans in JPG format, although a quick check of the online NARA catalogue shows that these digital maps have yet to be posted online. As the existence of the images in the post show, however, this cannot be too far behind.
The maps themselves are priceless historical records containing truly amazing amounts of information. A portion of the Lage Ost (Situation East) map for 6 December 1941, above, is particularly notable. It depicts the military situation at what can be argued as the high tide of German fortunes in World War II, with its forces closing in on Moscow. However, 6 December was also the beginning of the great Soviet winter counteroffensive that would drive the German Army permanently away from Moscow.
A Map Is Worth At Least A Thousand Words
Several details immediately jump out. The northern prong of the German offensive, led by the Third Panzer Group and Forth Panzer Group, and the southern thrust by the Second Panzer Army can be clearly seen. While Second Panzer Army’s divisions are concentrated for the push from Tula northward, the army’s eastern flank is merely screened by elements of the 10th and 25th Motorized Infantry divisions, the 112th Infantry Division, and a detachment of the 18th Panzer Division. Large-scale, abstract maps of the war on the Eastern Front often depict the battle lines as solid, when in fact, they were thinly-held or gapped.
This is significant because of what this map does not depict: the several dozen divisions the Soviets had amassed around Moscow for their counter-offensive. In fact, the first Red Army counterattacks had started on 5 December, against the LVI Panzer Corps, north of Moscow (at the top of image above). Soviet maskirovka, or military deception efforts, had successfully hidden the build-up from German intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance assets. Soviet troops infiltrated these gaps, forcing the Germans to halt their attack and then withdraw to avoid encirclement.
This is only a fraction of the story contained in these maps. Hopefully, NARA is diligently digitizing the rest of the collection and will get them online as soon as possible,
This post is totally unrelated to any legitimate national security concerns, but I think it is damn interesting anyway. In Canada they found a fossil of bacteria that is 3.77 to 4.30 billion years old. Now the earth is 4.54 +/- 0.05 billion years. So this would indicate that life, at least in the form of bacteria and being created around hot jets in water, formed within hundreds of thousands years after the earth formed. Added to that we have found dozens of planets within the habitable zones of many stars out there, including three new ones last week around one star less than 40 light-years away. Pretty hard to imagine that there is not life out there, at least in the form of bacteria.
A few links:
worlds-oldest-fossils-discovered-Canada
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Age_of_the_Earth
earth-size-planets-found-orbiting-star-could-hold-life
Apparently the proposed defense increase by the Trump administration is a 3% increase, vice a 10% increase. The FY2017 Defense Budget is around $582.7 billion. The Trump administration’s proposed budget for FY2018 is $603 billion. This is a 3% increase. It certainly won’t pay for a 540,000-man army or a 355-ship fleet. Senator John McCain is not too impressed by this. McCain is looking for a $640 billion dollar budget for defense for 2018.
http://thehill.com/policy/defense/321374-mccain-trump-defense-budget-not-enough-for-world-on-fire
Everyone who is someone and every organization that is something seems to be putting out a reading list these days. Perhaps I can persuade Chris to put one together for TDI sometime. In the meantime, several lists have popped up recently that are worth the time to peruse. They are particular good for sparking arguments over what was omitted and should be added.
The first is from LTG H.R. McMaster (scroll halfway down for the sidebar), the newly appointed Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs. He actually put this together a few years ago to outline his reading choices for military professionals. The list should be familiar to military historians and folks working in defense-related fields. It definitely delivers a sold grounding in theory and practice and informs McMaster’s view of the relationship between war and policy.
However, policy-making veteran Heather Hurlburt pointed out that McMaster’s list included no works written by women or non-Westerners. So she compiled a list of additional selections written primarily by women, including several contributors to the current ongoing national security conversation. As for non-Westerns, she only offers the ubiquitous Sun Tze, so there is room for more recommendations on that score.
The next comes from the membership of War on the Rocks and addresses the Vietnam War. It is an impressive mix of classic works on the subject and newer revisions based on declassified primary sources from all of the belligerents. The list also includes personal memoirs and novels. As a former Special Operations Forces historian, I lament the exclusion of any titles related to the covert side of that conflict.
The last list comes from Professor Andrew Bacevich, by way of West Point’s Modern War Institute. His list of five works includes Stanley Kubrick’s film adaptation of Dr. Strangelove. Bacevich also cites the theologian Reinhold Neibuhr’s The Irony of American History. His admiration for Neibuhr’s work is shared by former President Barack Obama.
So, has anyone read anything interesting lately?
President Trump has proposed a 10% increase in the defense budget. I gather this means he will request supplementary spending of $30 billion for FY2017 (this year) and a full $54 billion for FY2017. This will put the defense budget at $603 billion and non-defense discretionary spending at $462 billion for FY2018. Of course, this has to go through congress, as the House of Representatives only can initiate spending bills, and they somehow or the other have to pay for this (which is going to be an issue). No specifics on what the money will be spent on, although they mentioned planes and ships.
Trump-plans-to-cut-funding-for-most-government-agencies
The cuts will be a challenge. According to one article: “Two officials familiar with Trump’s proposal said the planned defense spending increase would be financed partly by cuts to the State Department, Environmental Protection Agency and other non-defense programs.”
The State Department and U.S. AID budgets are around 50 billion. Around $26 billion goes to foreign aide. The top four recipients for aid are Israel (3.0 billion), Egypt (1.3 billion), Afghanistan (1.3 billion) and Pakistan (700 million). I can’t envision we would cut any of these four aid programs, so savings from these budgets may be limited.
The EPA budget is 8 billion. They are talking about a 25% cut there, so $2 billion.
The rest of the money will have to come from other non-defense discretionary programs (vice Social Security, Medicare, paying interest on the debt, etc.) or we will have to increase the deficit. Right now, I suspect it will be the later. The last two major defense build-ups were funded by deficit spending.
The nominee for Secretary of Navy has withdrawn his nomination: navy-secretary-nominee-withdraws
All the acting secretaries are hold-over undersecretaries and assistance secretaries from the previous administration. I gather that the various deputy, undersecretary and assistant secretary slots are also mostly not filled.
I don’t think Iraqi casualties in the Mosul operations have been published. This article has a report that the fight to take the eastern half of Mosul cost Iraqi forces 500 dead, with another 3,000 wounded in three months of fighting (6-to-1 wounded to killed ratio). On Saturday, Iraq had four soldiers killed and 53 wounded in the fight for western Mosul: U.S. Forces Push Artillery, Rockets and Helicopters Closer to the Fight in Mosul
The source of the estimate was General Joseph Votel, head of the U.S. Central Command. Suspect they have more precise figures. Not sure if the figures include Kurdish forces or Iraqi Shiite militia. Also see: iraqi-army-ahead-of-schedule-in-fight-for-west-mosul