Category China

Map of Coronavirus

This link leads to a map of the Coronavirus. It is from Johns Hopkins University: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

As of 11:00 PM 28 January they were reporting 6,057 confirmed cases and 132 deaths.

 

P.S. As of 9:00 PM 29 January they were reporting 7,783 confirmed cases and 170 deaths. To date, no deaths have been outside of China. Below is a graph of “total confirmed cases” from that site:

P.P.S. As of 9:30 PM 30 January they were reporting 9,776 confirmed cases and 213 deaths. To date, no deaths have been outside of China. Below is a graph of “total confirmed cases” from that site:

The Snowballing Effects of a Virus?

Again, this is not my area of expertise, since I’m mostly into Pfizer stock speculation and such, but as the Coronavirus does not seem to be going away any time soon, probably worthwhile to look at the effects of such a disease if it continues to expand, beyond the issues of health and mortality.

Economic Effects in China: Right now, around 60 million people are in partial or full lock down. The current population of China is over 1.4 billion, so this is 4% of the population. So lets say that their economic activity is reduced by at least 20% (it may be more). Let us say this is a ripple effect that impacts three times that amount of people (as they certainly trade with others). The most immediate economic impact of the virus is on consumption and travel. So 0.12 x 0.8 = 0.96 or basically a 1% decline in the Chinese economy/growth rate. The Chinese economy is growing at around 6% a year. Now, if this virus lasts for three months, it is simply a blip on the charts. If it lasts the better part of a year, we will see a reduction in the growth rate of the economy. On the other hand, if the virus continues to spread and more people and cities are on lock down, then the economic impact could be more significant.

Note: These are all the companies who have shut down operations….

International Economics: The Chinese economy now makes up 16% of the world economy. They are certainly the manufacturing hub in many industries (for example, my first Kursk book was printed there). So, any disruption in the Chinese economy will result in a decline worldwide. These fears were amplified this last Monday morning when the DOW declined by over 500 points, which is almost a 2% drop. Now it was recorded somewhat and as of 1:00 PM on Monday was at 337 (1.16%). Still this shows the economic impact on the markets. Of course, the market going down 1 or 2% does not mean the economy is in decline, but it does indicate that this is a global concern.

Oil Prices: U.S. oil prices were down on Monday morning by nearly 2% also to $53.13 a barrel. Now oil prices directly affect consumers as we can see the fluctuations from day to day at the gas pump, but…..if also significantly impacts the economy of Russia, which relies heavily upon taxes on oil and natural gas for its budget. As of 1 PM on Monday, the exchange rate for rubles to dollars went from 62 rubles to 63 rubles.

Internal Stability in China: Keep in mind that China had a major internal unrest incident in 1989 with Tiananmen Square. They have been hesitant since then to run over people with tanks. More to the point, the continued growth of the Chinese economy has dampened much of the political and internal unrest, and will probably continue to do so as long as the economy continues to grow. Many people (and I am one of them) does consider that the development of a capitalist economy under control of a communist regime is a fundamental contradiction that at some point will lead to political unrest. This was the case 30 years ago, and if the economy stagnates or decline, I have no doubt will be the case again. Added to that, right now there has been an extended pro-democracy protest in the Chinese city of Hong Kong that has not been resolved. Is this an isolated case, being a former British colony; or is it the first of many others? I do get the sense that the stability of China is not guaranteed and could be quickly become an issue if the economy declines.

Internal Stability of Russia: The Russian economy is tied to oil prices, maybe not as much as Iran and Saudi Arabia, but enough that this is a big issue. In 2012 oil, gas and petroleum products account for over 70% of their total exports. Russia already had one extended economic decline from 2014-2015 where is actually saw its GDP decline by 3.7% in 2015. This is significant. We do note today that the when the stock markets declined by over 1%, the price of oil declined by 2% and the ruble declined by 2% also. So……what happens if the decline continues? The Russian GDP grew by only 1.2% in 2019. The next Russian election is in 2024, so they have some time to ride out any problems, but as they are busy changing the constitution into who knows what; then if we actually do see a significant decline in the Russian economy over an extended time, then the elections, or even internal stability, could become an issue.

Ukraine and sanctions and such: Not unrelated to the Russian economic problems are the sanctions imposed by the U.S. and European as a result of its actions in Ukraine, including the seizure of Crimea. This have been an issue since then, both in Russia and in U.S. politics. Needless to say, if the Russian economy declines, these issues will remain at the forefront.

Iran and Iraq: Cannot help but notice that Iran has a lot of internal turmoil and unrest, in addition to occasional head-to-head confrontations with the U.S. The Iranian economy is also heavily tied to the price of oil. Nothing fuels a protest movement like a declining economy. One could also say the same of Iraq. Of course, we have troops in Iraq.

Plague?

This is far from my area of expertise, but I am following the spread of the Coronavirus with concern. It has already killed over 50 80 106 people in China, forced them to shut down a city of 11 million people (Wuhan); and now there are three five cases in the U.S., three in France, almost 2,000 more than 2,700 confirmed cases in China (more than 4,500 on Tuesday, 28 Jan.), more than 40 confirmed cases outside of China in 13 places (more than 70 confirmed cases in 17 places on Tuesday, 28 Jan.). They say nearly 60 million people in China are on partial or full lock down in multiple cities. What we know

This is tragic but the worse may yet to come. The human toll is going to tragically get worse. The virus apparently can spread before symptoms show. One wonders how bad it is going to be before it is contained.

There could also be a significant economic cost. Considering that nearly 60 million people are on partial or full lock down….what does this do to production and work? As the virus spread, what is the economic cost? One can envision a scenario where Chinese economy stalls or declines and there is criticism of the government response (which is almost inevitable if this continues to expand). Does this created additional unrest or internal problems in China? Does this further impact the Chinese economy? Would a decline of the Chinese economy (which is 16% of the world economy) result in a stalling or decline of many other economies in the world? One could spin out a downward scenario here.

Don’t want to be alarmist, but this does concern me. We have not had a major world-wide “plague”  since the Spanish flu epidemic of 1918-1920. According to some accounts it affected up to 500 million people and killed 50 million or more. More recently was SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) from 2002-2004. This came out of China, transferred to humans from bats in Yunnan province. It produced 8,098 documented cases resulting in 774 deaths in 17 countries. It was completely contained and no new cases have been reported since 2004. There has also been MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) or the “Camel flu” from 2012 to the present which has affected almost 2,000 people with a mortality rate of 36% among those diagnosed! It was not just confined to the Middle East with an outbreak in South Korea in 2015 that killed 36. There may be a large number of milder undiagnosed cases. This disease is still not contained.

The Coronavirus will hopefully be contained soon like SARS was, but the scenarios are frightening if it is not.

 

 

P.S. In the news Monday morning: Dow falls more than 400 points as the coronavirus outbreak worsens

 

Size of Fleets around the South China Sea, Part 2

So, China has 2 carriers, 36 destroyers, 52 frigates and 67 subs (SSN and SSK) to enforce it’s claims to the South China sea. All the nations that have competing claims (Taiwan, Philippines, Indonesia, Brunei, Malaysia and Vietnam) have a total of 4 destroyers, 43 frigates and 17 subs (SSK). This is not an even match. But, there are a few other players in the immediate region and there are a few other players in the Pacific that may have some influence. Lets look at them:

Also in the area are the following countries:

…………………….Singapore…..Thailand…..Cambodia

Small carrier………………………….1

Destroyers……….0
Frigates……………6………………..7

Corvettes…………6…………………7

Littoral……………..8

Submarines……..4………………….1

Patrol vessels…..2………………….8

Patrol ships…………………………22……………..21

Patrol boats…………………………23

LPD………………..4………………..1

LST……………………………………2

LCU…………………………………..9………………1

Mine Sweeper…..4………………….5

Others……………3………………….5

Auxilleries…………………………..17

Riverine Patrol Boats…………….189

 

Not connected to the South China Sea, but close enough to get our attention are the following:

………………………….S. Korea……N. Korea…..Japan…..Australia….New Zealand

Helicopter carriers……1……………………………….4……………2

Cruisers…………………………………………………..8

Destroyers…………….12………………………………22…………..2
Frigates………………..11…………….3………………10…………..8…………….2

Corvettes……………..12…………….14………………6
Submarines…………..18…………….70……………..20…………..6

Patrol vessels………….0……………………………………………………………..2

Patrol ships…………..71……………………………….13………………………….2

Missiles boats…………………………30

Torpedo boats……………………….247

Patrol boats…………………………..191……………….6…………..2

LSD……………………………………………………………………….1

LST……………………..8…………………………………3

Other Amphib………….5………………………………..2………………………….1

Mine warfare………….11……………30………………26…………..6

Other……………………2………………………………..8…………..7…………….1

Auxiliary……………….20……………………………….21………….2

 

Needless to say, in an extreme emergency (which would probably involve the U.S.) we would probably expect Japan, Australia, South Korea and Taiwan to cooperate. This is a total of 7 carriers, 8 cruisers, 40 destroyers, 51 frigates and 48 submarines compared to China’s 2 carriers, 36 destroyers, 52 frigates and 67 subs (SSN and SSK)

 

Finally there is the Russian Navy, which has 1 carrier, 2 battle cruisers, 11 destroyers, 10 frigates and around 45 submarines (SSGN, SSN and SSK), although not all will be in the Pacific. Then there is the United States which has 11 carriers, 9 amphibious carriers, 22 cruisers, 69 destroyers, 20 Littoral Combat Ships and 52 submarines (SSGN and SSN). Not all of these will be it the Pacific either. Details are here:

U.S. Navy Compared to Russian Navy

 

The Size of Fleets in the South China Sea, Part 1

These has been a little rumbling lately in the news about Malaysia and Vietnam asserting their territorial rights in the South China Sea. Of course, part of the area they asserting is part of their 200 mile economic exclusion zone happens to be territory that Red China also claims. These are not the only countries that have such conflicts. Bordering the South China Sea is China, Taiwan, Philippines, Indonesia, Brunei, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam. There countries with competing claims are China, Taiwan, Philippines, Indonesia, Brunei, Malaysia and Vietnam. Let us look at their naval assets for a moment.

China has the largest navy in the region. Their fleet (the People’s Liberation Army Navy) consists of:

2 new carriers – 54,500 to 58.600 tons (one commissioned in 2019)

36 Destroyers – 3,670 to 12,000 tons

52 Frigates – 2,000 to 4,200 tons

42 Corvettes – 1,400 tons

109 Missile boats – 170 to 520 tons

94 Submarine chasers

17 gunboats

20 mine countermeasures vessels – 400 to 1,200 tons

6 Amphibious transport docks (LPD) – 25,000 tons

1 Mobile Landing Platform

32 Landing Ship Tanks (LST) – 4,170 to 4,800 tons

31 Landing Ship medium (LSM) – 800 to 2,000 tons

7 Ballistic Missile Submarines (SSBN) – 8,000 to 11,500 tons

12 Nuclear attack Submarines (SSN) – 5,500 to 7,000 tons

55 Attack submarines (SSK) – 2,110 to 4,000 tons

The fleet also includes a 12 replenishment oilers and 232 various auxiliaries. The fleet is definitely growing and will have a third carrier around 2022.

The other countries have:

…………………….Taiwan……Philippines…..Indonesia….Brunei….Malaysia….Vietnam
Destroyers………..4
Frigates…………..22…………..(2)……………..8…………………………..6……………..9

Corvettes………….1…………….1…………….10…………………………..6……………14
Subs (SSK)………4……………..0……………..5……………………………2……………..6

ASW Corvettes…………………………………14

Patrol Vessel……………………11………………………………4…………..8

Patrol ships……….12…………..7……………37……………..9…………..8

Missile boats……..31………………………….15……………………………8

Mine sweepers….10………………………….12…………………………….4……………..8

Patrol boats……………………58…………..104……………23………….17……………54?

LSD…………………..1………….2……………..5

LST…………………..2………….5…………….12

LSM………………………………………………12…………………………………………..6?

Auxiliaries…………..5……….13………………42…………………………..14…………..12

 

The Taiwanese corvette is 567 tons, their patrol ships are 580 tons, their missile boats are 171 tonnes. The small Philippine fleet will get two frigates (2,600 tons) in 2020. Their corvette is 1,200 tons. Their offshore patrol vessels range from 712 to 3,250 tons. The patrol ships range from 140 to 357 tons, their patrol and missile boats are all less than 60 tons. The Indonesian ASW Corvettes 950 tons, East German built (we have a piano from East Germany).

There are some other countries on the periphery of this conflict, like Singapore, Thailand and Cambodia. We will address them in a subsequent post.

China and Russia Defeats the USA

A couple of recent articles on that latest wargaming effort done by RAND:

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2019/03/rand_corp_wargames_us_loses_to_combined_russiachina_forces.html

The opening line states: “The RAND Corporation’s annual ‘Red on Blue’ wargame simulation found that the United States would be a loser in a conventional confrontation with Russia and China.”

A few other quotes:

  1. “Blue gets its ass handed to it.”
  2. “…the U.S. forces ‘suffer heavy losses in one scenario after another and still can’t stop Russia or China from overrunning U.S. allies in the Baltics or Taiwan:”

Also see: https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/03/article/did-rand-get-it-right-in-its-war-game-exercise/

A few quotes from that article:

  1. “The US and NATO are unable to stop an attack in the Balkans by the Russians,….
  2. “…and the United States and its allies are unable to prevent the takeover of Taiwan by China.

The articles do not state what simulations were used to wargame this. The second article references this RAND study (RAND Report) but my quick perusal of it did not identify what simulations were used. A search on the words “model” and “wargame” produced nothing. The words “simulation” and “gaming” leads to the following:

  1.  “It draws on research, analysis, and gaming that the RAND Corporation has done in recent years, incorporating the efforts of strategists, regional specialists, experts in both conventional and irregular military operations, and those skilled in the use of combat simulation tools.”
  2. “Money, time, and talent must therefore be allocated not only to the development and procurement of new equipment and infrastructure, but also to concept development, gaming and analysis, field experimentation, and exploratory joint force exercises.”

Anyhow, curious as to what wargames they were using (JICM – Joint Integrated Contingency Model?). I was not able to find out with a cursory search.

The Japanese Aerospace Industry

A schematic rendering of Japan’s proposed F-3 fighter [Tokyoexpress.info]

In my previous post, I discussed the progression of aircraft in use by the Japanese Air Self Defense Force (JASDF) since World War II. Japan has also invested significant sums in its domestic aerospace manufacturing capability over this same time period.

Japanese aircraft manufacturing has long been closely tied to the U.S Air Force (USAF) and U.S. aerospace majors offering aircraft for sales, as well as licensed production. Japanese aerospace trade groups categorize this into several distinct phases, including:

  • Restarting the aircraft business – starting in 1952 during the Korean War, Japanese aerospace firms like Mitsubishi and Kawasaki reacquired aircraft manufacturing capability by securing contacts with the USAF for maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) of damaged USAF aircraft, including the F-86 Sabre, considered by the Americans to be the star aircraft of the war (although many believe its opponent from the Soviet side, the MiG-15 to have been superior.) There was little doubt, then, that the JASDF would purchase the F-86 and then license its domestic production.
  • Licensed production of US military aircraft – “Japan has engaged in licensed production of U.S. state-of-the-art fighter planes, from the F-86 to the F-104, the F-4, and the F-15. Through these projects, the Japanese aircraft industry revived the technical capabilities necessary to domestically manufacture entire aircraft.”
  • Domestic military aircraft production – Japanese designed aircraft, while independent, unique designs, also leveraged certain Western designed aircraft as their inspiration, such as the T-1 and eventual F-1 follow-on and the clear resemblance to the British Jaguar. This pattern was repeated in 1987 with the F-2 and its clear design basis on the F-16.
  • Domestic Production of business, and civil aircraft – “Japan domestically produces the YS-11 passenger plane as well as the FA-200, MU-2, FA-300, MU-300, BK-117, and other commercial aircraft, and is an active participant in international joint development programs with partners such as the American passenger aircraft manufacturer Boeing.”

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) won a contract to build the wing for the Boeing 787, a job that Boeing now considers a core competency, and is unlikely to outsource again (they kept this task in house for the more recent 737 MAX, and 777X aircraft). This shows MHI’s depth of capability.

Also in the previous post, I could not help but include the “F-22J,” a hypothetical fighter that has been requested by the Japanese government numerous times, as the air power threat from the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has grown. The export of the F-22, however, was outlawed by the Obey amendment to the 1998 Defense Authorization Act (a useful summary of this debate is here). So stymied, the JASDF and supporting Ministry of Defense personnel conducted a series of design studies in order to establish detailed requirements. These studies clarified the approach to be taken for the next aircraft to put into service, the F-3 program, ostensibly a successor to the F-2, although the role to be played is more of an air superiority or air dominance fighter, rather than a strike fighter. These studies concluded that range, or endurance is the most important metric for survivability, a very interesting result indeed.

Airframe developers…appear to have settled on something close to the 2013 configuration for the F-3 that emphasized endurance and weapons load over flight performance… That design, 25DMU, described a heavy fighter with a belly weapons bay for six ramjet missiles about the size of the MBDA Meteor. The wing was large and slender by fighter standards, offering high fuel volume and low drag due to lift but penalizing acceleration.… The key factor was that the high-endurance design provided more aircraft on station than would be available from an alternative fleet of high-performance fighters. – (Aviation Week & Space Technology, February 15-28, 2016)

I am curious about the air combat models that reached the conclusion that endurance is the key metric for a new fighter. Similar USAF combat models indicated that in a conflict with PLA armed forces, the USAF would be pushed back to their bases in Japan after the first few days. “In any air war we do great in the first couple of days. Then we have to move everything back to Japan, and we can’t generate sufficient sorties from that point for deep strike on the mainland,” according to Christopher Johnson, former CIA senior China analyst [“The rivals,” The Economist, 20 October 2018]. (History reminds us of aircraft designed for range and maneuverability, the Mitsubishi A6M “Zero,” which also de-emphasized durability, such as pilot armor or self-sealing fuel tanks … was this the best choice?) Validation of combat models with historical combat data seems like an excellent choice if you are investing trillions of Yen, putting the lives of your military pilots on the line, and investing in a platform that will be in service for decades.

Given this expected cost, Japan faces a choice to develop the F-3 independently, or with foreign partners. Mitsubishi built and flew the X-2 “Shinshin” prototype in April 2016. The JASDF also issued an RFP to existing aircraft manufacturers, including the BAE Eurofighter Typhoon, the Boeing F-15 Eagle, and the Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor. In October 2018, the Typhoon and the Eagle were rejected for not meeting the requirements, while the Raptor was rejected because “no clear explanation was given about the possibility of the U.S. government lifting the export ban.” The prospect of funding the entire cost of the F-3 fighter by independently developing the X-2 also does not appear acceptable, so Japan will look for a foreign partner for co-development. There is no shortage of options, from the British, the Franco-Germans, or multiple options with the Americans.

U.S. versus China (GDP)

Right now (as of 2017) the U.S. GDP is $19.391 Trillion according to the World Bank. The Chinese economy is $12.238 Trillion. This is 63% of the U.S. economy. No economy has been that close to the U.S. economy since Japan leading up to 1995.

It is a rather amazing growth on the part of China. Back in the bad old days, after we had fought a war with them over Korea, they were threatening to invade Taiwan, they were supporting North Vietnam against our ally South Vietnam, and allied with the Soviet Union as part of the Communist Bloc, the difference was much greater. The U.S. GDP in 1960 was 543.3 Billion, while China’s was 59.716, meaning the U.S. economy was 9 times greater. Now it is only 1.6 times greater.

Of course, the two economies are intertwined, with the United States being China’s largest trading partner. This sort of leads to the odd situation where some in the U.S. and China consider the other to be a rival. But, I can’t think of too many cases where major trading partners were opposing hostile players on the world stage. Still, it is a very uncomfortable arrangement with the U.S. nominally the leader of the free world, while China had been known to run over its people with tanks. They are still very much a dictatorship. So the two nations seem to exist as trading partners who are not really friends and not really enemies. They may be rivals in the long run, or may not. There is, of course, an on-going trade dispute between the two nations.

Now….if were extend those lines on the graph out…..it does look like they will cross at some point around 2050 or so. This of course, leads me back to this post:

Demographics of China

It is projected that by 2050 the Chinese population will decline to 1.36 billion by 2050 (it is currently 1.41 billion) while the U.S. will grow to 402 million by 2050 (it is currently 328 million). For a number of reasons, I don’t think we will see the Chinese economy exceed the U.S. economy by 2050.

Demographics of India

India is still not thought of by many as a world power, but in the long run, as its economy and population grow, it will join this esteemed company. It is the 2nd largest population in the world and the 6th largest economy in the world. Its economy is about the size of its old colonial master, the United Kingdom. It is a nuclear power, although we gather it has not weaponized many nukes. Still, it is a poor country, with a per capita income of $1,983 per person (per year…IMF 2017 figures).

Unlike China, there was no draconian one-child policy adopted, so Indian population continued to grow at a rate that is about to catapult it past China as the most populous country in the world. This is expected to happen in 2024 or 2030, or whenever. Sometime in the next decade.

The population of India for 2017 is estimated at 1.324 million, or 1.3 billion. This puts the population of the world’s largest democracy around four times that of the United States. It is almost four times what its population was in 1951 (361 million). In the early 1950s China had a population around 60 percent larger than India. Now, they are almost equal, although China has considerable more wealth.

The rapid Chinese economic growth has lead to it having a GDP of $12 trillion compared to the more anemic GDP of India at only $2.6 trillion. Needless to say, there is also a big difference in per capita income.

But while China is growing at a rate of only .59% a year and its population is expected to fall, India is expected to continue growing. Its growth rate in 2016 was 1.19% and its fertility rates are 2.45 children per woman (2016 estimate from CIA World Factbook). The annual growth rate remains at over one percent a year. But, the growth rate of the population appears to be declining, like it is in most areas of the world, developed or developing. India does have some emigration and immigration, but the population is so massive that this does not have a huge impact on population growth rates. The demographic pyramid is actually much more pyramidal that the others we have seen, although it is clear towards that bottom of the pyramid that they are now controlling their population growth rates.

India is truly a multi-ethnic, multi-linguistic and multi-religious society. It has something like more than 2,000 ethnic groups. Forgive me if I don’t list them. About 40% of Indians speak Hindi (an Indo-European language) as their first language, and over half the population can speak it. Over 10% of the population speaks English, making it the second largest English speaking country in the world. Religious affiliation is a little more unified with Hindu’s making up almost 80% of the population. There are Muslims (14% or more), Christians (2.3%), Sikhs (1.7%), Buddists, Jainism and even practitioners of Zoroastrianism (look that one up in your Funk and Wagnells). Keep in mind that 14% of 1.3 billion makes this the third largest Muslim population in the world with over 170 million Muslims.

The Indian population is expected to grow for a while. The United Nations predicts the Indian population will be 1.7 billion in 2050. This compares to 402 million for the United States and 1.36 billion for China estimated in 2050.

India economic growth rate has been around 6% a year for the last two decades. Depending on continued economic growth, this is a country that will slowly and surely take its place among the nations of the world.

 

Demographics of China

China is the most populous country/region in the world. In its unified and un-unified forms, it has been forever, so it seems. It certainly has been since the fall of the Roman Empire, although one can argue that the British Empire was larger for a moment. Oddly enough, the pre-eminent position that it has held for over 1,500 years, is about to be surpassed by India. China, in its wisdom brought it population under control decades ago, encouraging smaller families. This has allowed it to further develop and economically grow. Quite simply, if a country’s economic growth is 3% a year, and its population growth is 3% a year, then the average person is basically getting nowhere. This has been the case for many nations in the developing world. China has broken from that pattern.

The population of China (People’s Republic of China) for 2017 is estimated at 1,411 million, or 1.4 billion. This is a staggering figure making it almost five times (4.6 times) as many people as the United States. It is around three times what its population was in 1950. The population in its first official national census taken by the People’s Republic of China in 1953 was 583 million. It was a little hard to determine what the population of China was until the post-war period. Post-war in this case means post-Warlord period, post-Sino-Japanese War, post-World War II and post-Chinese Civil War. The Chinese population was almost four times larger than the United States in 1950/1953, back in the days when we were at war with China in the Korean peninsula. The Chinese population is now growing at a rate of 0.59% percent a year (a half percent a year). This is very low.

The fertility rates in China are 1.62 children per woman (2016) according to National Health and Family Planning Commission (NHFPC) and 1.29 in 2016 according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Not sure why there is such a difference. Regardless, this is not replacement rate and well below 2.1. It is a birth rate lower that what we see in many developed countries, although China is a still a developing country. This low birth rate was a result of the one-child policy instituted by the Communist Party in 1979. It appears to have not only worked, but it worked too well. In 2015, the government instituted a two-child policy. According to NHFPC, they are expecting the birth rate to grow to 1.8. I guess this is one of the goals of the 13th Five-Year Plan. This is still not replacement rate. China does have some emigration and immigration, but the population is so massive that this does not have a huge impact on population growth rates.

They have classified 91.51% of the population of China as Han Chinese. Still, 8.5% of 1.5 billion creates some significant minorities. This includes the Tibetians, with at least 2.8 million, and the Turkish Uyghurs estimated at 3.6 million. I ate recently at a Uyghur restaurant in Crystal City, VA. I have never seen to one of those before.

Most likely the Chinese population will experience negative population growth by 2030. The United Nations predicts the Chinese population will be 1.36 billion in 2050. This compares to 402 for the United States and 132 for Russian in 2050. Predicting population over 30 years is not that difficult. On the other hand, there is a projection that Chinese population will decline to 1.02 billion by 2100. I would not hang my hat on that last figure.

The population is aging, with its demographic “pyramid” developing a narrowing at the bottom. The demographic “pyramid” from 2015 is below:

These figures do not include Taiwan (Republic of China) or Macau (Macao Special Administrative Region). It does include the city of Hong Kong. Mainland China claims Taiwan is part of China and has had an army posed across the straights ready to invade for almost 70 years. I am guessing if they have not invaded in the last 70 years, they are not going to invade in the next 70, especially as Taiwan is a major trading partner. I do not expect re-unification as long as Taiwan remains democratic (and it has been since 1991/1996) and China remains a communist dictatorship. Taiwan had a population in 2010 of 23.1 million, and it is growing only very slowly. Macau, with a population of 552,300 in the 2010 census, is effectively under Chinese control, as is Hong Kong (7,097,600 in the 2010 census).