Category China

Coronavirus Mortality Rates update 5

The latest update on the mortality rates for the coronavirus. This has slid out of control in a number of countries, in particular Italy, Iran and the United States. If the reporting is correct, China does seem to have mostly contained the virus, and this may well be the case with South Korea. In China on 1 March they were reporting 79.8K cases. As of today, they are reporting 81K cases. This is an expansion of around 1,200 cases or an average of 109 cases a day over the last 11 days. So, while not completely under control, if the data is correct, this is a good effort considering that they have had over 80,000 cases. The virus is now expanding faster in several other countries in the world and the number of cases outside of China will soon exceed the number of cases inside of China.

Country………….Cases……..Deaths……..Rate

World Wide……….124,908…….4,591….……3.68%

Italy…………..…….12,462…..……827……….6.64%

Iran…………………9,000….……..354……….3.93%

S. Korea…..………7,755..…..……..61……….0.79%

Spain………………2,231..…..…..…54…….…2.42%

Germany………..…1,908……….……3……….0.16%

France……………..1,784….…….…33…..…..1.85%

United States…..…1,135..…..….….30….…….2.64%

 

Eight countries around the world with over a thousand cases. Below is a list of some of the rest. They are mostly European. Not sure how much more extensive testing influences these figures.

Switzerland………..613……..….……4….……..0.65%

Norway………….….598..……………0……..….0%

Japan…………..…..581..………..…12.…….…2.07%

Netherlands.…..……503..……………5.……….0.99%

Sweden…..……..….500….…………0…….…..0%

Denmark..………….442…….………0………..0%

United Kingdom……373……..…..…6………..1.61%

Belgium….………….314….…………1………..0.32%

Qatar..……..…….….262..…..………0………..0%

Austria……..…….….206..…..………0………..0%

Bahrain……..………189…….………0………..0%

Singapore………….178…….………0………..0%

Malaysia….……..…149…….………0…….…..0%

Hong Kong……..….126…..,….……3………..2.94%

Australia…..……..…128..….………3….……..2.34%

Canada…….……..….101……………1….……..1.08%

Greece…………………90……………0…..……..0%

Iceland…………..…….85…..….……0…..……..0%

Israel……………….…..79……………0…..……..0%

UAE……..………..……74…..….……0…..……..0%

Kuwait………….…..…72..…………0…………..0%

Iraq…..…………………71..…………7…………..0%

A few other entities of interest to this author that have less than 70 cases so far:

 

Lebanon…………..…61..…………3…………..4.91%

India……….……..……60…..….……0.….……..0%

San Marino……..…..60…..….…….2…..……..6.67%

Egypt……………..…..60…..….……1…..……..1.69%

Brazil……..……..……37…..….……0…..……..0%

Vietnam….……..……35…..….……0…..……..0%

Indonesia….…..……34…..….……1…..……..2.94%

Palestine…..…..……26…..….……0…..……..0%

Saudia Arabia……….21…..….……0…..……..0%

Russia…….…………..20…..………0…..……..0%

Pakistan………..……19…..….……0…..……..0%

Afghanistan…….…….7……………0…..……..0%

Mexico…….…………..7…….………0…..……..0%

New Zealand….……..5…….………0…..……..0%

Ukraine………………..1…..……..…0…..……..0%

North Korea..………..0…..……..…0…..……..0%

Syria……….…………..0…..……..…0…..……..0%

Diamond Princess…696…….……..7…..……..1.01%

 

Data is from Johns Hopkins CSSE 3/11/20 as of 4:13.43 PM EST. This is the third time I have updated this post today. It is here: Johns Hopkins CSSE

A few more observations:

  1. It does appear that the mortality rate is below 1% if: 1) there is good health care and 2) there is good reporting. That appears to be borne out by the reporting from South Korea and the more contained environment of the cruise ships.
    1. Still the S. Korean mortality rate has continued to increase over the last few days.
  2. If mortality really is less than 1%, then it appears there are already over 60,000 in Italy.
  3. San Marino has a population of 33,562. With 60 cases, this makes it the “most infected” country in the world with 0.178% infected.
    1. The Holy See (Vatican City) is second with 1 case in around 1,000 people (0.100%)
    2. Italy with 60,317,546 people and 12,462 cases is third (0.021%)
    3. South Korea with 51,709,098 people and 7,755 cases is fourth (0.015)
  4. I still suspect 44 U.S. passengers from the Diamond Princess are being double counted in CSSE database.

On the graph at the top of this post, the top line is the number of coronavirus cases in Mainland China (People’s Republic of China). The next line is the “Total Recovered” which is reported at 66,702 out of 124,908 cases (and 4,591 deaths). The bottom line is the number of coronavirus cases in “other locations” (meaning outside of mainland China). This bottom line is to aiming to cross the other two lines over the next couple of weeks.

Coronavirus Mortality Rates update 4

The latest update on the mortality rates for the coronavirus. This is not developing well. It looks like at least three countries (Italy, Iran and the United States) do not have control of the situation. On the other hand, China seems to have partly contained the virus. On 18 February, they were reporting 74.1K cases. As of today, they are reporting 80.6K cases. This is an expansion of around 6,500 cases or an average of 382 cases a day over the last 17 days. In the last 5 days, they have only added around 800 more cases (around 160 cases a day). So, while not completely under control, if the data is correct, this is a good effort considering that they have had over 80,000 cases. The virus is now expanding faster in several other countries in the world.

Country……………….Cases……..Deaths………..Rate

World Wide…….…….101,587……..3,460….………3.41%

S. Korea…………………6,593..………..42………….0.64%

Iran………………………4,747…………124………….2.61%

Italy………………………4,636…………197………….4.25%

Germany…………….……670…..….……0…………..0%

France………………….…577……………9…………..1.56%

Spain….……………….…386..…….……5……………1.30%

Japan……………………..381..…….……6.……….…1.57%

United States……..….….245..…….….14…….……..5.71%

Switzerland……………….214…..….……1…….……..0.47%

United Kingdom…………163……………2…….……..1.23%

Singapore……………….130……………0………..…..0%

Netherlands.………..…..128..…….……1…………….0.78%

Belgium….……………….109……………0….………..1.96%

Norway………………..….108..…………0…..…….….0%

Hong Kong…………..….106…..….……2….………..1.89%

Sweden…..…………..….101…..………0…..………..0%

Malaysia….…….……..….83…..………0…..………..0%

Bahrain…….…….…….….60…..………0…..………..0%

Australia…..……….…..….60..…………2…..………..3.33%

Kuwait…………………..…58..…………0…..………..0%

Austria…….…….………….55..…………0…..………..0%

Cruise Ships….…………696…..………6……………..0.86%

 

Data is from Johns Hopkins CSSE 3/06/20 as of 1:33.03 PM EST. It is here: Johns Hopkins CSSE

A few more observations:

  1. It does appear that the mortality rate is below 1% if: 1) there is good health care and 2) there is good reporting. That appears to be borne out by the reporting from South Korea and the more contained environment of the cruise ships.
    1. Still the S. Korean mortality rate has increased over the last couple of days.
  2. Italy and Iran are well on their way to 5,000 cases and this number will continue to grow. Their mortality rate is now 4.25% & 2.61%
  3. The United States has the highest mortality rate at 5.71%. This could be because 1) the disease hit a particularly vulnerable population at a nursing home, and 2) we may be far from having this under control and have not properly located, tested and contained all the cases out there. Suspect we are looking at more than 1,000 cases in the U.S.

On the graph at the top of this post, the top line is the number of coronavirus cases in Mainland China (People’s Republic of China). The next line is the “Total Recovered” which is reported at 55,863 out of 101,587 cases (and 3,460 deaths). The bottom line is the number of coronavirus cases in “other locations” (meaning outside of mainland China)

Other Notes:

  1. The cruise ship figure has been reduced in the CSSE database from 706 cases to 696. Not sure why.
  2. The cruise ship figure is interesting as it is a more contained environment. Japan quarantined 3,711 passengers and crew from the Diamond Princess. Of those 696 or 706 tested positive for Coronavirus and now six have died.
  3. The CSSE database is double counting some cases. For example there are 696 or 706 cases that tested positive on the cruise ships, 44 of them were shipped to the U.S. I believe their database counts those 44 among the 696 or 706 on the cruise ship and counts those 44 among the 245 in the U.S. If this is the case then the revised mortality statistics for the U.S. is 6.97% (removing those 44 cases).

Coronavirus Mortality Rates update 3

Another partial update on the mortality rates for the coronavirus. In my last update (29 Feb) I listed all countries with more than 60 cases. They all now have more than a hundred cases.

Country…………………….Cases……..Deaths………..Rate

World Wide…………………94,250…….3,214……………3.41%

S. Korea……………………..5,621………..28…………….0.50%

Iran……………………………2,922………..92…………….3.15%

Italy………………………..…2,502………..79…………….3.16%

Japan…………………………..304…………6.……………1.97%

Germany………………………244…………0……………..0%

France…………………………212…………4……………..1.89%

Spain….…………………….…193…………1……………..0.52%

United States…………..…….128…….……9……………..7.03%

Singapore……………………..110…………0……………..0%

Hong Kong………………..….102…………2……………..1.96%

Switzerland………………..……93…………0……………..0%

Kuwait…….………………..……56…………0……………..0%

United Kingdom…………..……53…………0……………..0%

Malaysia…..………………..….50…………0……………..0%

Bahrain…..………………….….49…………0……………..0%

Cruise Ships……….…….…..706…………6……………..0.85%

 

Data is from Johns Hopkins CSSE 3/04/20 as of 8:33.02 AM EST. It is here: Johns Hopkins CSSE

A few more observations:

  1. It does appear that the mortality rate is below 1% if: 1) there is good health care and 2) there is good reporting. That appears to be borne out by the reporting from South Korea and the more contained environment of the cruise ships.
  2. Italy and Iran has now both exceeded over two thousand cases and I suspect the number will continue to grow. They now have similar mortality rates at 3.15% & 3.16%
  3. The United States now has the highest mortality rate at 7.05%. This could be because 1) the disease hit a particularly vulnerable population at a nursing home, and 2) we may be far from having this under control and have not properly located, tested and contained all the cases out there.
    1. This article from The Guardian is worth a read: Washington state residents frustrated

On the graph at the top of this post, the top line is the number of coronavirus cases in Mainland China (People’s Republic of China). The next line is the “Total Recovered” which is reported at 51,026 out of 94,250 cases (and 3,214 deaths). The bottom line is the number of coronavirus cases in “other locations” (meaning outside of mainland China)

Other Notes:

  1. The cruise ship figure is interesting as it is a more contained environment. Japan quarantined 3,711 passengers and crew from the Diamond Princess. Of those 706 tested positive for Coronavirus and now six have died.
  2. The CSSE database is double counting some cases. For example there are 706 cases that tested positive on the cruise ships, 44 of them were shipped to the U.S. I believe their database counts those 44 among the 706 on the cruise ship and counts those 44 among the 128 in the U.S. If this is the case then the revised mortality statistics for the U.S. is 10.71% (removing those 44 cases).
  3. It is worthwhile to read the comments by “Ulenspiegel” posted to my previous post.

Mortality Rates update 2

 

Mortality Rates update 2

Another partial update on the mortality rates for the coronavirus. This is developing fast enough that another update was needed. There were significant increases in the number of cases in South Korea, Italy and Iran. I am now listing all countries with more than 60 cases:

Country…………………….Cases……..Deaths………..Rate

World Wide…………………85,954…….2,941……………3.42%

S. Korea……………………..3,150………..16…………….0.51%

Italy………………………..…1,128………..29…………….2.57%

Iran……………………………..593………..43…………….7.25%

Japan…………………………..241…………5.……………2.08%

Singapore……………………..102…………0……………..0%

Hong Kong……………………..94…………2……………..2.13%

Germany………………………..79…………0……………..0%

France…………………………..73…………2……………..2.74%

United States…………………..68…………1……………..1.47%

Cruise Ships………..…….…..705…………6……………..0.85%

 

Data is from Johns Hopkins CSSE 2/28/20 as of 1:23.10 PM EST. It is here: Johns Hopkins CSSE

A few observations:

  1. S. Korea lower mortality rate with over 3,000 cases either indicates that 1) they have exceptional health care 2) they have a younger population exposed, or 3) they are doing a better job in identifying all the people who have the disease. Suspect the later. If that is true for most of these cases, then any nation with a mortality rate of greater than 0.50% could be undercounting the number of cases by several multiples.
  2. Italy has now exceeded over a thousand cases and suspect the number will continue to grow.
  3. Iran is still underreporting cases by the thousands.
  4. The cruise ship figure is interesting as it is a more contained environment. Japan quarantined 3,711 passengers and crew from the Diamond Princess. Of those 705 tested positive for Coronavirus and now six have died.
  5. The CSSE database is double counting some cases. For example their are 705 cases that tested positive on the cruise ships, 44 of them were shipped to the U.S. I believe their database counts those 44 among the 705 on the cruise ship and counts those 44 among the 68 in the U.S. If this is the case then the revised mortality statistics for the U.S. is 4.17% (removing those 44 cases).

Mortality Rates update 1

Partial update on the mortality rates for the coronavirus:

 

Country…………………….Cases……..Deaths………..Rate

World Wide…………………84,124…….2,867……………3.41%

S. Korea……………………..2,337………..13…………….0.56%

Italy……………………………..888………..21…………….2.36%

Iran……………………………..388………..34…………….8.76%

Japan…………………………..228…………4*……………1.75%

Cruise Ships…………………..705…………5……………..0.71%

 

* The site says 4, some news reports are now giving higher counts.

This update is caused by the continue expansion of cases in S. Korea, Italy, Iran and Japan. These are the four countries outside of China that report over a 100 cases. This post was updated in the afternoon because of additional Italian data.

Data is from Johns Hopkins CSSE 2/28/20 as of 4:13.12 PM EST. It is here: Johns Hopkins CSSE

A few observations:

  1. S. Korea has a noticeably lower mortality rate than any other nation with over a 100 cases. This may be because of better identification and testing of people with the virus.
  2. Italy is now nearing a thousand cases, as I mentioned yesterday was possibly the case.
  3. Iran’s mortality rate is now lower because they are identifying more cases. Of course, some of these new cases may be fatal.
  4. I assume Japan’s figures will be sorted out as reports and updates are made.
  5. The cruise ship figure is interesting as it is a more contained environment. Japan quarantined 3,711 passengers and crew from the Diamond Princess. Of those 705 tested positive for Coronavirus and five have died.

 

Mortality Rates of the Coronavirus by Country

In my morbid fascination with casualty rates it is hard for me not look at the statistics on the coronavirus and not calculate morbidity rates. Here are the stats:

Country…………………….Cases……..Deaths………Rate

World Wide…………………82,548…….2,810……………3.41%

China………………………..78,497…….2,744……………3.50%

S. Korea……………………..1,766…………13……………0.74%

Italy……………………………..528…………14…………..2.65%

Iran……………………………..245…………26…………10.61%

Japan…………………………..189…………..3……………1.59%
Singapore………………………93

Hong Kong……………………..92……………2……………2.17

United States…………………..60

Kuwait…………………………..43

Thailand………………………..40

Bahrain…………………………33

Taiwan………………………….32……………1…………….3.13

Germany……………………….26

Australia………………………..23

Malaysia……………………….22

France………………………….18……………2…………….11.11

Vietnam………………………..16

Philippines………………………3……………1…………….33.33

Cruise ships…………………705……………4………………0.57

Other countries……………..117

 

Data is from Johns Hopkins CSSE as of 9:03.03 this morning. It is here: Johns Hopkins CSSE

Now, it is suspected that the number of cases are underreported. There are people that get sick and recover that are never reported. Don’t know how many this is. Suspect that the population of unreported cases exceeds the population of reported cases. Have no data to support that suspicion.

A few takeaways are:

  1. Mortality rate worldwide is around 3.49%
    1. If the number of unreported cases is equal to the number of reported cases, then the real mortality rate is half that.
  2. Mortality rate is China is 3.50%
  3. Mortality rate in South Korea is 0.74%.
    1. This is a significant difference
    2. It may be a result of better health care
    3. It may be a result of early detection and quick treatment
    4. It may be a result of better statistical collection on number of cases.
    5. Is probably a combination of all three.
    6. The point it, it is less than 1% with a significant number of cases. So this is the standard that is achievable.
  4. Mortality rate of Italy is 2.65%
    1. Italian health care is good…so…
    2. Does this mean that there are still a lot of unreported cases out there?
      1. So Italy may have over a 1,000 cases?
  5. Mortality rate of Iran is 10.61%
    1. Now the Iranian health care system may not be as good as S.Korea and Italy…but….
    2. This strongly indicates that there is a large number of unreported cases.
      1. Maybe also over a 1,000 cases?
  6. Just for reference the mortality rate of the flu is something like 0.1%.

 

While S. Korea and Italy are tragic and concerning, what really scares me is the uncontrolled outbreak in Iran. If there are over a thousand cases and it is not locked down and controlled, then it can spread, both in Iran and out of Iran. Iran’s neighbor to the west in Iraq (which reports 6 cases). Iraq is a country that is not always in good order. To their west is Syria, which is in civil war. What happens if the coronavirus arrives in a country in civil war. What containment is there? What government run health care is there?

To the east of Iran is Afghanistan (which reports 1 case) and Pakistan (which reports 2 cases). What happens if it spreads there? Afghanistan is in civil war as are parts of Pakistan. Are the Taliban really going to implement thorough and complete containment and provide proper healthcare?

So while the virus may be able to be contained in places like S. Korea and Italy, is it going to be contained in places like Iran, Iran, Syria, Afghanistan and Pakistan? Will this then become a permanent source of further transmission of the virus to the rest of the world, generating periodic outbreaks elsewhere and forcing systematic containment efforts for years to come?

Hard to Ignore the Coronavirus

It is hard to ignore the Coronavirus. It is kind of the biggest game changer right now, not only for the tragic mortalities, but for its economic impact and as a result, for its impact on international relations and national security. While its rate of expansion in China seems to be slower (see my previous post), it is appearing in various “hot spots” across the world. As of the moment I am writing this (after 1:00 PM Feb. 24) there were 80,350 confirmed cases worldwide and 2,705 deaths…assuming all the reporting is complete and correct. Right now in South Korea there are 977 cases and 10 deaths, in Italy there are 283 cases and 7 deaths, in Japan there are 170 cases and 1 death (and 3 from the cruise ships) and in Iran there are reported 95 cases and 16 deaths. There is a sense that the Iranian figures are low and the real numbers are higher. So outside of China there are pockets of disease in multiple locations.

See: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Beyond the immediate dangers the virus poses, there are the problems and cost of containment. China, in its efforts to control it, effectively shut down entire cities. Is that what Korea, Italy and Iran are going to have to do? This is a major economic hit.

The markets on Monday clearly picked up on this with the Dow Jones dropping over a thousand points yesterday. It is down 500 800 almost 900 points today. Markets in South Korea, Italy, etc. are getting hit even worse. Oil prices are also declining. Right now they are over $50 a barrel but they could decline to the low $40s. The exchange rate for the ruble has also declined to 65 to a dollar. Their economy and government budget is heavily impacted by oil prices. My post from 28 January:

The Snowballing Effects of a Virus?

This is clearly going to affect the world markets through this quarter and probably into the next quarter. If it is fully contained, then the economies will start to recover. The question is, can this virus be fully contained? Because of the rather “stealthy” way it spreads, with people apparently able to spread it before they show symptoms of the disease, it may take a while to fully contain. Suspect these are not the last outbreaks. Each outbreak then produces another round of costly containment efforts.

It has been estimated that the economic cost of the SARS virus of 2002-2004, which only included 8,098 documented cases and 774 deaths in 17 countries, cost 1.05% of the Chinese GDP in 2003. Hong Kong took the biggest with a 2.63% loss in GDP in 2003 while the U.S. economy had a negative 0.07% effect. It is clear that this virus is going to have a lot bigger impact. Right now, it is 80,350 cases, 2,690 cases outside of mainland China, and 2,705 deaths (with 42 of them outside of China).

One estimate is here: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK92473/

The Table 2.2 is here (and a lot less blurry): https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK92473/table/ch2.t2/?report=objectonly

 

The Spread of the Coronavirus does seem to be Slowing

Source: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

This graph is from Johns Hopkins. I gather the figures are only as good as the reporting from China, and that I have not looked into.

The top line is the number of coronavirus cases in Mainland China (People’s Republic of China). The next line is the “Total Recovered” which is reported at 21,250 out of 77,917 cases (and 2,361 deaths). The bottom line of “other locations” (meaning outside of China)

A related news article is here:  China reports fall in new coronavirus cases but concerns grow over rising global spread

Coronavirus update

Well, I was concerned about the Coronavirus from the start, and so far, it unfortunately seems to be living up to my concerns. This morning, according to the reported stats…..there have been 24,607 reported cases (which is about 3 times as many as reported SARS cases) and 494 deaths. The concern and question is about the trends….is the disease expanding linearly or geometrically? Here is the latest graph from the John Hopkins University site:

This is from this site: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Of course this is assuming that the reported statistics are correct. There is some question about that: https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-arrested-doctors-warned-coronavirus-111252311.html

To summarize:

  1. Last December eight doctors and medical technicians became concerned about a developing SARS-like disease. They were arrested on 1 January 2020 for having “spread rumors.”
  2. There is still on-going censorship efforts concerning the virus in China.
  3. Not discussed in this article, but there are people claiming there could be over 75,000 cases: https://www.iflscience.com/health-and-medicine/coronavirus-cases-in-wuhan-could-be-over-75000-research-model-reveals-/

The tradition is that these communist governments tend to initially try to cover-up and minimize these disasters (i.e. SARS, Chernobyl). Not that democratic governments also don’t sometimes try to minimize the scale of these problems, but the free press does help keep them truthful.

 

 

Interesting Article on the Chinese Government

Interesting article on the Chinese government and the Chinese public perceptions of it. From the New York Times: Virus Crisis Exposes Cracks in China’s Facade of Unity

The main point of the article is that the government has already come under criticism for the crisis that has developed in Wunan. One post on a social media site stated:

The current system looks so vibrant yet it’s shattered completely by a governance crisis. We game up our rights in exchange for protection. But what kind of protection is it? Where will our long-lasting political apathy lead us?

“The post was shared over 7,000 times and liked 27,000 times before censors deleted it,” according to the article.

This reinforces the argument I was making in the fourth point, Internal Stability in China, in yesterday’s post.