Category China

U.S. Fleet versus Chinese Fleet

This subject has been addressed in a few cases in our past posts. Let’s dredge up a few:

From January 2020:

The Size of Fleets in the South China Sea, Part 1 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Size of Fleets around the South China Sea, Part 2 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

U.S. Navy Compared to Russian Navy | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

From August 2016:

Chinese Carriers | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Chinese Carriers II | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

To summarize:

………………………….US…China…Size

Aircraft Carriers………..11……………..100,000-106,300 tons

Small Carriers……………0…….2………..54,500-58,600

LHA/LHD (Carriers !)……9 * ……………..41,150-45,693

Cruisers…………………..22………………….9,800

Destroyers……………….69………………….8,315-9,800

Destroyers……………………….36………….3,670-12,000

LCS……………………….20………………….3,104-3,900

Frigates……………………0…….52………….2,000-4,200

Corvettes…………………0…….42…………..1,400

Missile boats……………………109…………..170-520

Submarine chasers…………….94

Gunboats………………………..17

 

LPD…………………………11..,…6……………25,000-25,300

LSD…………………………12…………………..15,939-16,100

LST…………………………..0…..32…………….4,170-4,800

LSM………………………………..31…………….800-2,000

Mobile Landing Platform………….1

Special-purpose……………7……………………895 – 23,000

MCM………………………..11…..20

PC…………………………..13

 

SSBN………………………14………………….18,750

SSBN………………………………..7……………8,000-11,500

SSGN……………………….4…………………..18,750

SSN………………………..48…………………….6,927-12,139

SSN…………………………………12……………5,500-7,000

SSK…………………………………55……………2,110-4,000

 

 

*This excludes the USS Bonhomme Richard (LHD-6), which is still on the rolls but because of the fire of 12 July 2020 is clearly never returning to duty.

U.S. versus China (GDP) – update 1

Dredging up our old posts. This one is from 13 November 2018.

U.S. versus China (GDP) | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

As of 2017, U.S. GDP was $19.391 trillion according to the World Bank. The Chinese economy was $12.238 trillion. This was 63% of the U.S. economy.

Now?

Using the World Bank figures for 2019 it is 21.428 trillion for the United States. The Chinese economy is $14.343 trillion. This is 67% of the U.S. economy and these figures pre-date the Covid crisis.

IMF has estimated 2020 figures. I have no idea how relevant or meaningful they area. For the US. it is $%20.807 trillion while for China it is 14.861 trillion. This is 71% of the U.S. economy. Don’t know how much of the Coronavirus issues affected these 2020 IMF figures. China started dealing with Coronavirus in January 2020 while it only became an issue in the United States in March of 2020. China has since brought it under control and are seeing about 200 cases a day. The United States has failed to bring it under control and are looking at something like 180,000 new cases each day. As such, I would expect that China GDP is growing faster than the United States and this will probably also be the case for 2021.

 

P.S.: The U.S. GDP declined 3.5% in 2020. See: https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/28/economy/us-fourth-quarter-gdp/index.html

Some National Coronavirus Graphs – update 5

This updated post addresses the question of when is the virus mitigated, or even better when it is contained, and eventually when should restrictions be relaxed. So we look at South Korea compared to the nine worst plagued countries in the world (see post from yesterday on the “big nine”). We then look at three other countries in East Asia that were near China and had to deal with the virus sooner than most. We then look at a few other countries that appear to getting the virus under control. I think there is considerable value here in comparing results across several countries. All these are simple graphs pulled from the Johns Hopkins CSSE website as of 09:33:07 AM:  Johns Hopkins CSSE

Here is the graph for the number of cases in South Korea, population 52 million. They have 11,668 reported cases. This is clearly what controlling the virus looks like. They have had a total of 273 deaths, for a mortality rate of 2.34%

This is good. This looks like a country that now has the situation under control. Note how long it took (time is on the x-axis).

In comparison, are the United States (1,874,411 reported cases), Brazil (614,941 reported cases) , Russia (449,256 reported cases), United Kingdom (283,080 reported cases), Spain (240,660 reported cases), Italy (234,013 reported cases), India (229,594 reported cases), France (189,569 reported cases) and Germany (184,924 reported cases). It looks like Spain, Italy, France and Germany are bringing the virus under control. The United States, Brazil, Russia and India clearly have not. The graphs from yesterday are in this post:

Coronavirus and the Big Nine

In contrast here are the graphs for three other East Asian nations, Japan (16,949 cases and 913 deaths), Taiwan (443 cases and 7 deaths) and Vietnam (328 cases and still no reported deaths). It took Japan longer to bring the virus under control that South Korea, but it appears like they have done. This is a country with a population of 126 million people.

And here is China, the original source of the virus. They have 84,174 reported cases and 4,638 reported deaths, although there is still some concern about the accuracy of their statistics:

Finally, let me add to this collection of graphs Austria (16,843 reported cases and 672 deaths), Denmark (12,075 reported case and 586 deaths), Czech Republic (9,494 reported cases and 326 deaths), Norway (8,504 reported cases and 238 deaths), Australia (7,251 reported cases and 102 reported deaths), Iceland (1,806 reported cases and 10 deaths), and New Zealand (1,504 reported cases and 22 deaths). It appears that they have all bringing or have actually brought the virus under control.

And then there is Singapore. Seven weeks ago it had 3,614 reported cases. Six weeks ago it had 11,178 reported cases. Four weeks ago it had 21,707 reported cases and 20 reported deaths and as of now it was 37,183 reported cases and 24 deaths. It appears that they still do not have control of the situation.

And finally there is Sweden, which I gather did not do any lockdown procedures. They have 41,883 reported cases and 4,562 deaths. Compare their graph and their stats to their neighbors Denmark and Norway.

Some National Coronavirus Graphs – update 3

I may continue updating this post for a while. This basically addresses the question of when is the virus mitigated, or even better when it is contained, and eventually when should restrictions be relaxed. So we look at South Korea compared to the three worst plagued countries in the world. We then look at three other countries in East Asia that were near China and had to deal with the virus sooner than most. We then look at a few other countries that appear to getting the virus under control. I think there is considerable value here in comparing results across several countries. All these are simple graphs pulled from the Johns Hopkins CSSE website as of 8:31:22 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

Here is the graph for the number of cases in South Korea (10,702 reported cases, only 89 more case than reported around this same time last week):

This is good. This looks like a country that now has the situation under control. Note how long it took (time is on the x-axis).

In comparison, here are the graphs for the United States (842,624 reported cases), Spain (213,024 reported cases) and Italy (187,327 reported cases). It looks like Spain and Italy are reaching their deflection point:

In contrast here are the graphs for three other East Asian nations, Japan (11,950 cases), Taiwan (427 cases) and Vietnam (268 cases, the same as last week). Not sure why Japan does not have the virus under control like South Korea does. This would be worth looking into.

And here is China (83,878 reported cases), although there is still some concern about the accuracy of their statistics:

Finally, let me add the Austria (15,002 reported cases), Norway (7,338 reported cases), Australia (6,547 reported cases and only 85 new cases since last week), the Czech Republic (7,136 reported cases), Iceland (1,785 reported cases and only 58 new cases since last week) and New Zealand (1,451 reported cases and only 50 new cases since last week) to this collection of graphs as it appears that they are now reaching their inflection point and some have started leveling off:

Finally, there is Germany, which has the fifth highest number of reported cases (at 150,773). They also appear to be bringing this under control.

And then there is Singapore. Last week it had 3,614 reported cases. Now it has 11,178 reported cases. It appears that they have lost control of the situation again.

Coronavius Mortality Rates update 15

This is my last update of this post for a while. My first post on Mortality Rates was on 27 February. At that time there was 4,051 cases of Coronavirus outside of China and only 66 deaths outside of China. It is here:

Mortality Rates of the Coronavirus by Country

I am looking at shifting away from Coronavirus posts and focusing more time on defense affairs and analysis of military history.

The number of cases continue to increase,  as sadly are the number of deaths, and so is the mortality rate. In countries that previously had low mortality rates, like Germany, they have now risen to above 1% and keep rising. Germany is now at 3.31%. Now there still some people arguing that the actual mortality rate from Coronavirus is around 0.5%. There was an article recently that looked at antibody testing of Coronavirus, and discovered that 15% of the population in one German town had the virus, even though only 2% were reported as having the virus. The article is here: https://spectator.us/covid-antibody-test-german-town-shows-15-percent-infection-rate/

Now….this was a random sample of 1,000 residents, so it could just be wrong (90% confidence does mean that the data is wrong 10% of the time). And of course, it is one small town in one nation.  It does produce an infection mortality rate of 0.37%.

China continues to report very few new cases. I gather they are starting to relax their restrictions. What will happen now? If the virus is truly defeated and contained, then this should not be an issue. China has had 83,853 cases of which 77,799 recovered and 4,636 have died. If these figures are correct, this means that there are only 1,418 active cases left in China. In contrast, the United States has staggering 788,110 cases with only 73,533 recovered and a depressing 42,458 deaths. We are now 32% of the world’s reported cases and 25% of the world’s reported deaths. We are 4% of the world’s population.

 

Country……….Cases…..…Deaths….…Rate

World Wide……2,499,723….171,718…..…6.87%

United States…….788,110……42,458…..…5.39%

Spain………..……204,178……21,282……10.42%

Italy………..….…..181,228……24,114..….13.31%

France………….…156,493……20,265……12.95%

Germany…….……147,103….…4,869…..….3.31%

United Kingdom….125,856……16,509…….13.12%

Turkey…….……..…90,980….….2,140……..2.35%

Iran………………….84,802……..5,297…..…6.25%

China.………………83,853……..4,636.…….5.54%

Russia…….……..…52,763…….…456….….0.86%

Belgium….………….40,956……..5,998……14.64%

Brazil…………………40,814….….2,588…..…6.34%

Canada………………37,933……..1,753……..4.62%

Netherlands.……..…34,317……..3,916……11.41%

Switzerland…………28,063……..1,436……..5.12%

Portugal.…..…….….21,379…….….762.….…3.56%

India…………………18,985……..…603.……..3.18%

Peru………….………16,325……..…445.……..2.73%

Ireland………….……15,652……..…687.……..4.39%

Sweden…..…….……15,322………1,765…….11.52%

Austria………………14,873…………491………3.30%

Israel…….……….…13,883…….…..181………1.31%

Saudi Arabia……….11,631…………109……….0.94%

Japan……………….11,135…..……..263.….…..2.36%

S. Korea……….…..10,683…………237…..…..2.22%

 

A few other entities of interest to this author that have less than a ten thousand cases so far:

Pakistan…………….…9,216……..…192……….2.08%

Singapore…..…………9,125…………11……..…0.12%

Mexico…………………8,772…..……712……..…8.12%

Denmark..….…………7,891………..370…….…4.69%

Norway……………..…7,191..………182…….…2.53%

Indonesia….……..……7,135…….….616………..8.63%

Czechia…………………6,914…..…….196…….…2.83%

Australia………..……..6,547..……..….67….……1.02%

Ukraine…………………6,125…..…….161……..…2.63%

Egypt…………..….…..3,333…….……250…..……7.50%

Hungary……………….2,098……..….213……….10.15%

Bahrain……….……….1,952………….…7…….…..0.36%

Iceland…………..……1,778……………10…………0.56%

Iraq…..…………….…..1,574..…..…….82…..…..…5.21%

New Zealand…………1,445…………..13…………0.90%

Hong Kong….….…….1,029……….…4………..…0.39%

Afghanistan……………1,092….…..…..36………….3.30%

Andorra……….…….……717.…..……..37……..….5.16%

Lebanon……..…….….…677..…………21……..….3.10%

San Marino………………476……..……40………….8.40%

Palestine…..……………..461…..……..…4………….0.87%

Taiwan………………..…425………….…6….………1.41%

Vietnam….………..….…268………….…0………….0%

North Korea..………….…..0……..…..…0…….….…0%

Syria……….………….……..0……..……..0……….…0%

Yemen………………………..1……..……..0…..…..…0%

Libya……….………..……….0………..…..0………..…0%

Diamond Princess…….….712……………11……..….1.54%

 

There has been a ceasefire in Yemen because of the Coronavirus.

 

Data is from Johns Hopkins CSSE 4/21/20 as of 9:38.33 AM EST. It is here: Johns Hopkins CSSE

A few more observations:

  1. The actual mortality rate is a big issue if one is going to do any estimate of potential impact (population * percent infected * mortality rate and modified by improvements in care and developments of vaccines). I have been thinking about post about this at some point…but…
    1. Do I do an estimate based upon a rate of 0.5%, 1%, 1.5% or 2%? Makes a big difference.
    2. Needless to say, the figure of 0.5% would be better. If one does estimates based upon a 1% mortality rate, the numbers are kind of scary.
  2. Countries with high mortality rate obviously have a lot more cases than they are reporting.

Some National Coronavirus Graphs – update 2

Updating my posts for the last two weeks. This basically addresses the question of when is the virus mitigated, or even better when it is contained, and eventually when should restrictions be relaxed. So we look at South Korea compared to the three worst plagued countries in the world. We then look at three other countries in East Asia that were near China and had to deal with the virus sooner than most. We then look at a few other countries that appear to getting the virus under control. I think there is considerable value here in comparing results across several countries. All these are simple graphs pulled from the Johns Hopkins CSSE website as of 10:36:00 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

Here is the graph for the number of cases in South Korea (10,613 reported cases):

In comparison, here are the graphs for the United States (640,014 reported cases), Spain (182,816 reported cases) and Italy (165,155 reported cases). It looks like Spain and Italy are reaching their deflection point:

In contrast here are the graphs for three other East Asian nations, Japan, Taiwan and Vietnam. Note that they have fewer reported cases, 8,626, 395, 268 respectively:

And here is China (83,402 reported cases), although there is still some concern about the accuracy of their statistics:

Finally, let me add the Austria (14,451 reported cases), Norway (6,798 reported cases), Australia (6,462 reported cases), the Czech Republic (6,303 reported cases), Singapore (3,614 reported cases), Iceland (1,727 reported cases) and New Zealand (1,401 reported cases) to this collection of graphs as it appears that they are now reaching their inflection point and some have started leveling off:

There are other people publishing similar graphs. For example: https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/16/world/coronavirus-response-lessons-learned-intl/index.html

 

Coronavirus Mortality Rates update 14

My plan for now is to keep updating this post every Tuesday. This may be my second to last update as these do take some time. It is the especially annoying with the slow creaky internet that has developed from everyone “working” at home. My time may be better spent on defense affairs and analysis of military history.

The number of cases continue to increase dramatically, as sadly are the number of deaths, and of significance, so is the mortality rate. In countries that previously had low mortality rates, like Germany, they have now risen to above 1% and keep rising. Germany is now at 2.47%. Now there still some people arguing that the actual mortality rate from Coronavirus is around 0.5%. There was an article recently that looked at antibody testing of Coronavirus, and discovered that 15% of the population in one German town had the virus, even though only 2% were reported as having the virus. The article is here: https://spectator.us/covid-antibody-test-german-town-shows-15-percent-infection-rate/

Now….this was a random sample of 1,000  residents, so it could just be wrong (90% confidence does mean that the date is wrong 10% of the time). And of course, it is one small town in one nation.  It does produce an infection mortality rate of 0.37%.

China continues to report very few new cases. I gather they are starting to relax their restrictions. What will happen now? If the virus is truly defeated and contained, then this should not be an issue. This was not the experience they had in Hong Kong. China has had 83,306 cases of which 78,195 recovered and 3,345 deaths. This is 588 more cases and 10 more deaths than last week. In contrast, the United States has 582,634 cases with only 44,319 recovered and a depressing 23,654 deaths. We are now 30% of the world’s reported cases.

 

Country……….Cases…..…Deaths….…Rate

World Wide……1,942,360….121,726…..…6.27%

United States…….582,634……23,654…..…4.06%

Spain………..……172,541……18,056……10.46%

Italy………..….…..159,516……20,465..….12.83%

France………….…137,877……14,967……10.86%

Germany…….……130,383……3,220…..….2.47%

United Kingdom……94,823…..12,107…….12.77%

China.………………83,306……..3,335.…….4.00%

Iran…………………74,877……..4,683………6.25%

Turkey…….……..…61,049……..1,296……..2.12%

Belgium….………….31,119……..4,157……13.36%

Netherlands.…….…27,580……..2,945……10.68%

Switzerland…………25,913……..1,162……..4.48%

Canada………………25,680……….823……..3.20%

Brazil…………………23,955….….1,361….…5.68%

Russia…….……..…21,102…….…170….….0.81%

Portugal.…..…….….17,448…….…567.….…3.25%

Austria……………..14,159………..384………2.71%

Israel…….……….…11,868………..117………0.98%

Sweden…..…….…..11,445………1,033………9.03%

Ireland………….……10,647……..…365.……..3.43%

S. Korea……….…..10,564…………222….…..2.10%

India…………………10,541……..…358.…..….3.40%

 

A few other entities of interest to this author that have less than a ten thousand cases so far:

 

Japan…………………7,645…..…..143.….…..1.87%

Denmark..….…………6,691……….299…….…4.47%

Norway…………….…6,691..………139…….…2.08%

Australia………..……..6,494..……….61….……0.94%

Pakistan…………….…5,837……..….96……….1.64%

Saudi Arabia………….5,369………….73………….1.36%

Mexico…………………5,014…..…..332……..…6.62%

Indonesia….……..…….4,839……….459……..….9.49%

Ukraine……………..…3,372…..…….98……..…2.91%

Singapore…..…………3,252…………10……..…0.31%

Egypt…………..….…..2,190…..…..164…..……7.49%

Iceland…………..……1,711…….……8……..…0.47%

Bahrain……….……….1,522……….…7…….…..0.46%

Hungary……………….1,512……….122……..…8.07%

Iraq…..………………..1,378..……….78…..……5.66%

New Zealand…………1,366……….…9……..…0.66%

Hong Kong….….…….1,012……….…4……..…0.39%

Afghanistan…………..…714….…..…23………….3.22%

Andorra……….…….……646.…..……29……..….4.49%

Lebanon……..…….….…641..…..……21……..….3.28%

Taiwan………………..…393……….…6….………1.53%

San Marino…………….…371…….….32………….8.63%

Palestine…..……………..308…..…..…2……..….0.65%

Vietnam….………..….…266……….…0……..….0%

North Korea..…………..0……..…..…0…..….…0%

Syria……….……..……..0……..……..0…..….…0%

Yemen…………….……..0……..……..0….…..…0%

Libya……….…………….0………..…..0….…..…0%

Diamond Princess….712……………11……..….1.54%

 

There has been a ceasefire in Yemen because of the Coronavirus.

 

Data is from Johns Hopkins CSSE 4/14/20 as of 10:41.26 AM EST. It is here: Johns Hopkins CSSE

A few more observations:

  1. The actual mortality rate is a big issue if one is going to do any estimate of potential impact (population * percent infected * mortality rate and modified by improvements in care and developments of vaccines). I have been thinking about post about this at some point…but…
    1. Do I do an estimate based upon a rate of 0.5%, 1%, 1.5% or 2%? Makes a big difference.
    2. Needless to say, the figure of 0.5% would be better. If one does estimates based upon a 1% mortality rate, the numbers are kind of scary.
  2. Countries with high mortality rate obviously have a lot more cases than they are reporting.

Some National Coronavirus Graphs – update 1

Just an update on my post last week on this subject:

Here is the graph for the number of cases in South Korea (as of 9:36;11 AM)

In comparison, here is the United States, Spain and Italy:

In contrast here are three other East Asian nations, Japan, Taiwan and Vietnam:

 

And here is China, although there is still some concern about the accuracy of their statistics:

Finally, let me add the Austrian graph to this as it appears that they are now reaching their inflection point and may start leveling off:

The daily increase for Austria is here:

Coronavirus Mortality Rates update 13

My plan for now is to keep updating this post every Tuesday. The number of cases continue to increase dramatically, as sadly are the number of deaths, and of significance, so is the mortality rate. In countries that previously had low mortality rates, like Germany, they have now risen to above 1% and keep rising. Germany is now at 1.76%.

China continues to report very few new cases. I gather they are starting to relax their restrictions. What will happen now? If the virus is truly defeated and contained, then this should not be an issue. This was not the experience they had in Hong Kong. China has had 82,718 cases of which 77,410 are recovered (and 3,335 died). In contrast, the United States has 368,449 cases with only 19,919 recovered (and 10,993 deaths). We are now 27% of the world’s reported cases.

 

Country……….Cases…..…Deaths……Rate

World Wide……1,363,365….76,420….…5.61%

United States…….368,449….11,008..……2.99%

Spain………..……140,510….13,798……..9.82%

Italy………..……..132,547….16,523..….12.47%

Germany…….…..103,717……1,822…..…1.76%

France………………98,984…..8,926….….9.02%

China.………………82,718…..3,335.…….4.03%

Iran……………….…62,589…..3,872………6.19%

United Kingdom……52,301…..5,385…….10.30%

Turkey…….…………30,217……..649………2.15%

Switzerland……..…22,242……..787……….3.54%

Belgium….…………22,194……2,035………9.17%

Netherlands.………19,703…….2,108…….10.70%

Canada…………….16,667………323………1.94%

Austria……………..12,488……….243………1.95%

Portugal.…..…….…12,442………345………2.77%

Brazil……………….12,240……….566………4.62%

S. Korea……….…..10,331………192….…..1.86%

Israel…….……………9,006…..…..60…….…0.67%

Sweden…..…….……7,693…..….591……….7.68%

Russia…….…………7,497………..58……….0.77%

Australia………..……5,895..…..….45….……0.76%

Norway…………….…5,866..…..….83…….…1.41%

Ireland……………..…5,364………174.………3.24%

Denmark..….………..5,173………203………3.92%

India…………………..4,908………137.…..….2.79%

 

Sixty-two countries around the world with over a thousand reported cases. Last week it was 44 countries, the week before that it was 26 countries, and three weeks ago it was 16 countries. A few other entities of interest to this author that have less than a five thousand cases so far:

Pakistan………………4,004…..….55……….1.37%

Japan…………………3,906…..….92.….…..2.36%

Indonesia….…..……..2,738…….221……….8.07%

Mexico……………..…2,439…….125…….…5.13%

Iceland…………..……1,562…….…6…….…0.38%

Ukraine…………….…1,462…..….45…….…3.08%

Singapore…..……..…1,375……..…6…….…0.44%

Egypt…………..……..1,322……….85….……6.43%

New Zealand…………1,160……..…1…….…0.09%

Iraq…..………………..1,031..……..64….……6.21%

Hungary…………………817…….…47….……5.75%

Bahrain……….…….……756……..…4…..…..0.53%

Hong Kong….….………935……..…4………0.43%

Lebanon……..………..…548..………19….….3.47%

Andorra……….………….525.………21…..….4.00%

Afghanistan………………423………..14………3.31%

Taiwan…………….…..…376……..…5….…..1.33%

San Marino…………….…277……….32……..11.55%

Palestine…..……………..260…..……1……….0.38%

Vietnam….…………….…249……..…0……….0%

North Korea..…………..0……..…..…0…..….…0%

Syria……….……..……..0……..……..0…..….…0%

Yemen…………….……..0……..……..0….…..…0%

Libya……….…………….0………..…..0….…..…0%

Diamond Princess….712……………11……..….1.54%

 

Data is from Johns Hopkins CSSE 4/07/20 as of 9:42.07 AM EST. It is here: Johns Hopkins CSSE

A few more observations:

  1. It does appear that at best the mortality rate is around 1% if: 1) there is good health care and 2) there is good reporting.
    1. The 1% figure appears to be borne out by the reporting from South Korea and the more contained environment of the cruise ships.
      1. Still the South Korean mortality rate continues to grow to now 1.86%. I gather they have tested more than 300,000 people.
      2. The Diamond Princess deaths are at 11, for a 1.54% mortality rate. Is the mortality rate for an older population hovering around 2%?
    2. There are now few European countries that are reporting a rate of less than 1%. In most cases, it would appear that the mortality rate is going to increase over time. This has happened with German, Switzerland, Austria, Norway and Ireland. Two weeks ago they were all around 0.50%, now they are all over 1%.
      1. Germany is at  1.76%. Switzerland is at 3.54%, Austria is at 1.95%,  Norway is at 1.41% and Ireland is at 3.24%.
    3. The actual mortality rate is a big issue if one is going to do any estimate of potential impact (population * percent infected * mortality rate and modified by improvements in care and developments of vaccines). I have been thinking about post about this at some point…but…
      1. Do I do an estimate based upon a rate of 0.5%, 1%, 1.5% or 2%? Makes a big difference.
      2. Needless to say, the figure of 0.5% is hard to justify now. If one does estimates based upon a 1% mortality rate, the numbers are kind of scary.
  2. Needless to say, countries will high mortality rate obviously have a lot more cases than they are reporting.
  3. San Marino has a population of 33,562. With 277 cases, this makes it the “most infected” country in the world with 0.83% infected. San Marino also has a very high mortality rate at 11.55%. If the real mortality rate should be 1%, then this means they may well have almost 10% of the country infected.
    1. The Holy See (Vatican City) is second with 7 cases in around 1,000 people (0.70%)
    2. Andorra with a population of 76,177 and 525 cases I gather is now third at 0.69%. Is Andorra a snapshot of the future of Spain like San Marino looks like a snapshot of the future of Italy?
    3. Spain with 47,100,396 people and 140,510 cases maybe fourth (0.30%). I have not checked every country.
    4. Italy with 60,317,546 people and 132,547 cases may be fifth (0.22%). Because of the high mortality rates of Spain and Italy, I believe the level of infection there is much higher.

There is now a single line on this graph, which represents the entire world. The “Total Recovered” is reported at 292,467 out of 1,363,365 cases and 76,420 deaths.