Ran across this very optimistic article on Mosul: Uncertainly Roils Planning for Mosul Liberation
As the sub-headline notes, “ISIS fighters fleeing Iraq’s second largest city as coalition forces prepare for tough fight.” If ISIL fighters are fleeing the city….it may not be that tough of a fight.
A few notes:
- U.S. Army asked for another 500 troops (I gather the real number is 615).
- U.S. “authorities” say they will need at least 24,000 trained, well equipped Iraqi soldiers (this is less than the 30,000 reported in some articles).
- Provides three specific accounts of recent ISIL losses in battle (from sources I don’t know). The two from air strikes that could easily be over-estimated, but the 40 lost from a counterattack in the Qayara area gets my attention. Was this a company-sized attack?
- Approximately 20,000 “terrorists” are in Mosul.
- There is a force of 1,000 “resistance fighters” in the city, meaning a Iraqi fifth column.
Article was written by someone named Douglas Burton who is: “…a former U.S. State Department official in Kirkuk, Iraq and writes news and commentary from Washington, D.C.”
Anyhow, unusually optimistic article. If true, Mosul could easily fall. We have seen before in Iraq and Afghanistan that some of these climatic fights are indeed anti-climatic as the defending force mostly bails out ahead of time.