Nothing really new to report. Same-old-same-old. Tens of thousands of protestors this weekend, a couple of hundred protestors arrested, and the situation continues as before. It does not appear that either side is making much progress. It is not ramping up to push Lukashenko from power, and it is not dying down. On the other hand, the protest estimates for this weekend seems to be around 20,000 vice the hundred thousand they had on some weekends.
I have still not seen any analysis as to whether extended protests result in a higher probability of replacing the existing government. I guess this is something I could do if I wanted to stop work on my books for the next six months.
Anyhow, this protest has now gone on for three months, which is about as long as the Euromaidan protests in Ukraine went (2013-2014).
P.S. On the morning of 13 October Svetlana Tikhanovksaya, the main opposition leader, issued out a statement:
“The regime has 13 days to fulfill three prerequisites:
Lukashenko must announce his resignation.
Street violence must stop completely.
All political prisoners must be released.
If our demands are not met by October 25, the whole country will peacefully take to the streets with the People’s Ultimatum. And on October 26, a national strike of all enterprises will begin, all roads will be blocked, sales in state stores will collapse.”
P. P.S. The picture of the detained protestor is from last month, I just happen to like it (“Beauty and the Beast”). She was identified over twitter (@A_Sannikov) as Natalia Petukhova. The arresting officer has not been identified. Picture came from @svirsky1 via @XSovietNews
Well, week 11 in Belarus and no clear resolution. It looks like this could drag on for a while. They did put up tens of thousands (maybe 100,000) protestors on Sunday and did start strikes on Monday. It does not appear that the strikes are universal. To quote from a couple of accounts:
BBC News (bolding is mine):
“Workers at some state-run plants downed tools and chanted slogans outside the gates.”
“The full scale of the protests on Monday is not yet clear, partly because of the authorities’ media restrictions.”
“A source in Minsk…told the BBC that the strike was affecting some major state enterprises…but they had not been brought to a standstill.”
“But on Monday, while some workers did strike and a sizable protest took place in the capital of Minsk, it did not appear that strikers had been joined by significant numbers of workers at the massive state plants that are critical to Belarus economy.”
P.S. On the morning of 13 October Svetlana Tikhanovksaya, the main opposition leader, issued out a statement:
“The regime has 13 days to fulfill three prerequisites:
Lukashenko must announce his resignation.
Street violence must stop completely.
All political prisoners must be released.
If our demands are not met by October 25, the whole country will peacefully take to the streets with the People’s Ultimatum. And on October 26, a national strike of all enterprises will begin, all roads will be blocked, sales in state stores will collapse.”
P. P.S. The picture of the detained protestor is from last month, I just happen to like it (“Beauty and the Beast”). She was identified over twitter (@A_Sannikov) as Natalia Petukhova. The arresting officer has not been identified. Picture came from @svirsky1 via @XSovietNews
This coming week may get dramatic. On the morning of 13 October Svetlana Tikhanovksaya, the main opposition leader, issued out a statement:
“The regime has 13 days to fulfill three prerequisites:
Lukashenko must announce his resignation.
Street violence must stop completely.
All political prisoners must be released.
If our demands are not met by October 25, the whole country will peacefully take to the streets with the People’s Ultimatum. And on October 26, a national strike of all enterprises will begin, all roads will be blocked, sales in state stores will collapse.”
So, we shall see what develops over the next few days.
P.S. The picture of the detained protestor is from last month, I just happen to like it (“Beauty and the Beast”). She was identified over twitter (@A_Sannikov) as Natalia Petukhova. The arresting officer has not been identified. Picture came from @svirsky1 via @XSovietNews
Another week of protests in Belarus. Things are starting to take a more serious and darker turn. The EU has imposed sanctions directly on Lukashenko, Russia has put the Belarussian opposition leader (Svetlana Tikhanovskaya) on their wanted list, based upon charges against her by Belarus. She is currently residing in Lithuania, an EU and NATO member. Belarus is now threatening to use deadly force against the protestors and on Sunday detained/arrested over 700, which is more than they have done in the previous weeks. It appears that they are starting to get more heavy handed. I gather yesterday at least three Molotov cocktails were thrown by protestors. There were tens of thousands on the street Sunday and Monday (see picture above). The pensioners (older retired people) came out in force on Monday to protest. Some were tear gassed.
This is still not making a lot of the American news channels, which I think is pretty damn embarrassing.
The danger is that as Lukashenko ramps up the pressure on the protests, it is going to invigorate the protesters (which is what happened early in the protests, and why he backed off). This could get worse.
Meantime, the developments in the rest of the FSU (Former Soviet Union) include:
Continued protests in the Siberian city of Khabarovsk (pop. 618,150). They have a strong anti-Putin sentiment and have been going on for three months.
There has been a shaky cease-fire between Azerbaijan and Armenia and the Republic of Artsakh. We shall see how long this holds.
Continued protests and governmental disruption in Kyrgyzstan going into the second week..
Oh yea, and they don’t really have the Coronavirus under control, even with their Sputnik V vaccine (which is not approved for widespread use until 1 January 2021). They are reporting 13K cases for each of the last two days, the highest daily figures they have ever recorded (if you believe the reporting) and are now recording the fourth highest number of cases in the world (only exceeded by the U.S., India and Brazil).
Things remain interesting in the FSU.
P.S. It turns out that Svetlana Tikhanovskaya issued out a statement this morning. It says in part:
“The regime has 13 days to fulfill three prerequisites:
Lukashenko must announce his resignation.
Street violence must stop completely.
All political prisoners must be released.
If our demands are not met by October 25, the whole country will peacefully take to the streets with the People’s Ultimatum. And on October 26, a national strike of all enterprises will begin, all roads will be blocked, sales in state stores will collapse.”
Translation cribbed from retweet from twitter account @XSovietNews
It looks like this will be coming to a head in the next two weeks.
Well, the protests continue for another week. Another tens of thousands protesters in Minsk, another 300+ people detained/arrested. The Belarus police claim 10,000 protestors. Other groups claim nearly 120,000. The pictures seem to support a higher estimate and the police had to turn water cannon on them in Minsk (pictured above). The EU did sanction 40 Belarus officials.
Nothing seems to be moving quickly, one way or the other. They are at an impasse for now. The most likely scenarios are:
Protest slowly loose virility and Lukashenko settles in for his sixth term as president.
Protest continue, with Lukashenko so under-mined that he cannot continue and….
He calls on Russia to support him.
He arranges for negotiated power sharing agreement with some of the opposition leadership.
His own administration decides to replace him with someone more acceptable.
He is forced to step down and surrender control of the government.
There is confusion over the rulership of Belarus and Russia decides to intervene.
It does not appear that he is going to ramp up the level of police crackdown. It is clear that he does not think that he can easily suppress the protests, or is concerned that an outbreak of violence and instability opens the door for Russia to intervene.
Now, what I have never done is any systematic analysis of protests. So, I do not know if extended protests have a higher chance of success or a lower chance of success as they continue. The successful Euromaiden protests in Ukraine in 2013/2014 lasted for three months. The 1989 Tiananmen Square protests lasted for 7 weeks until they were abruptly ended by tanks. How long can this continue with a 100,000 protesters and several hundred detained each week?
Meantime, there are some interesting developments in the rest of the FSU (Former Soviet Union).
In response to the 4 October parliamentary election, protesters in Kyrgyzstan stormed the “White House,” the Supreme Council building, and other government buildings and have freed the former President from jail. The electoral authorities of Kyrgyzstan have annulled the results of the recent election. Not sure what is going to happen next. This is not a precedent that is particularly appealing to Lukashenko or Putin.
Their have been continued protests of thousands of people in the Siberian city of Khabarovsk (pop. 618,150) that have now dragged on for three months. These also do not appear to be going away.
There is a war going on between Azerbaijan and the Armenian supported Republic of Artsakh.
Yesterday was the 50th day of protests. Through various twitter accounts one can see all the protests throughout the country. They are widespread and the protesters are clearly dawn from all parts of society and all age groups. Lots of large protests in small towns. News reports are saying “about” 100,000 protesters in Minsk and protests in nine other cities. The videos I am seeing are showing protests in some pretty small towns, so not sure where that count comes from. It was clear from the videos that there are tens of thousand of protesters in Minsk, but it may not have been a hundred thousand. The weather was not great this weekend. Another reported 350 or so people detained or arrested on Sunday.
Lukashenko has taken the oath of office for his new term, so it appears that both sides have dug in.
Now, what I have never done is any systematic analysis of protests. So, I do not know if extended protests have a higher chance of success or a lower chance of success as they continue. The successful Euromaiden protests in Ukraine in 2013/2014 lasted for three months. The 1989 Tiananmen Square protests lasted for 7 weeks until they were abruptly ended by tanks. How long can this continue with a 100,000 protesters and several hundred detained each week?
P.S. The picture of the detained protestor is from a week ago. She was identified over twitter (@A_Sannikov) as Natalia Petukhova. The arresting officer has not been identified. Picture came from @svirsky1 via @XSovietNews
Well sizable protests continued this weekend in Belarus, although they may not be as big as before. May have been less then 100,000 people. News reports are saying tens of thousands, while one opposition paper is claiming 150,000. The Belarus police claim 20,000 protestors all over the country. As both sides are expected to over/under estimate crowd sizes the real number of probably somewhere in between these two estimates. I suspect the protest in Minsk was less than 100,000. There may have been 200,000 protestors a couple of weeks ago. There were also protests in Brest, Gomel and other places.
Lukashenko’s police were a little heavier handed than in the last two weeks, detaining or arresting over 400 people on Sunday.
Not sure I know what was decided in Lukashenko’s meeting with Putin last week, but so far nothing significant has happened.
It does appear that this is turning into a waiting game, where Lukashenko is trying to ride out the protests and hope that over time they loose virulence. This is all being done in an environment of the coronavirus and what is certainly a declining economy. In the case of the coronavirus, it is reported for Belarus (population: 9.4 million, 80K square miles of area, GDP 63.6 billion, per capita income $6,744 or $21,233 PPP) that they have 75,898 cases and 785 deaths. Just to compare to the U.S. state of Virginia (population 8.5 million 42K square miles of area, GDP 476.4 billion, per capital income $56,047), Virginia has 141,022 cases and 3,019 deaths. There is reason to suspect the accuracy of Belarus’ statistics. See the two graphs below.
It is hard for governments to stay in power in a declining economy (although Venezuela manages) and between protests and coronavirus (and declining population and potential “brain drain”), it is hard for this economy to anything other than decline.
This may go on for a while.
P.S. Population of Belarus over time:
P.P.S. The Belarus coronavirus graph:
In light of the all the protests and the lack of social distancing efforts by the government, it is hard to believe that the number of cases have declined from their peak and have not rebounded.
P.P.P.S. The Virginia coronavirus graph:
P.P.P.P.S. The detained protestor was identified over twitter (@A_Sannikov) as Natalia Petukhova. The arresting officer has not been identified. Picture came from @svirsky1 via @XSovietNews
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko greets officials upon his arrival Sept. 14 at an airport in Sochi, Russia. (Belta/Reuters)
This story remains invisible in a lot of the U.S. news, but there were another 100,000+ protestors on the streets of Minsk on Sunday. According to the French 24-hour News this was a little bit smaller protest than last week. The Belarus police arrested at least 250 people yesterday. Still, this level of activity is much less than it was in the first two weeks of the protests, where thousands were arrested. This appears to be a waiting game… or a waiting out game.
Meanwhile today, the president of Belarus, Aleksander Lukashenko was in Sochi meeting with Vladimir Putin, president of Russia. This has got to an interesting and awkward discussion.
It still appear that the protests are not going away, Lukashenko does not want to bring in Russia to help put down the protests (Putin has offered), and……
In 1917, Manfred Albrecht Baron von Richthofen (1892-1918), sometimes known as the Red Baron, wrote an autobiography. At that time he was Germany’s leading ace with 52 claimed kills. He later claimed 80 kills before he was shot down.
His autobiography was almost certainly reviewed and censored by German authorities, although to what extent is hard to say.
I was re-reading it recently (I last read it when I was a kid) and a few passages stood out to me. These all occurred while he was serving with the Uhlans first in Russia and then in France at the start of the war.
On pages 47-48 for their operations at the border village of Kieltze in Poland (part of the Russian Empire), probably around 2 August 1914, Richthofen writes:
What should I do in order not to be noticed by the villagers? My first idea was to lock up the “pope.” [Russian priest] We fetched him from his house, to his great surprise. I locked him up among the bells in the church tower, took away the ladder, and left him sitting up above. I assured him that he would be executed if the population should show any hostile inclinations. A sentinel placed on the tower observed the neighborhood.
and five days later, only Richthofen and one other man were in the village:
…for the street swarmed with Cossacks…Most of them had lanterns, and they acted very incautiously and were very noisy. I estimated that they were from twenty to thirty. One had left his horse and gone to the “pope. whom I had let off the day before. Immediately it flashed through my brain, “Of course we are betrayed!…After having rested a few hours, our visitors rode away.
It is not stated if the “pope” went away with the Cossacks or if anything was done after the Cossacks left.
On pages 52-53 while they were at Arlon, Belgium in August 1914 Richthofen writes:
At Arlon I climbed the steeple in accordance with the tactical principles which we had ben taught in peace time…When I came down again I was surrounded by a crowd of angry young men who made hostile eyes, and who talked threateningly in undertones. My bicycle had, of course, been punctured, and I had to go on foot for half an hour. This incident amused me. I should have been delighted had it come to a fight. I felt absolutely sure of myself with a pistol in my hand.
Later on I hear that the inhabitants had behave very treacherously several days previously toward our cavalry, and later on towards our ambulances. It had therefore been found necessary to place quite a number of these gentlemen against the wall.
I assume the most negative interpretation of “against the wall” is correct. According to Wikipedia on Arlon: “Arlon was one of the first victims of the German invasion in 1914 as 121 inhabitants were executed on 26 August, on the orders of Colonel Richard Karl von Tessmar.” and in the Wikipedia article on Tessmar: “On 26 August, 121 Belgian civilians were executed at Arlon railway station on his order.”
On page 57 while they on Virton on or after 22 August 1914 Richthofen writes:
So both Loen and I had quarters for ourselves and our men…The monks were extremely amiable. They gave us as much to eat and to drink as we cared to have, and we had a very good time…We settled down as if we were on manoeuvres, and as if we were in the house of a delightful host and friend. At the same time it should be observed that thee days later we hanged several of our hosts to the lanterns because they could not overcome their desire to take a hand in the war. But that evening they were really extremely amiable.
This last one is significant as there were several major war crimes conducted by the German Army in that area. Dinant with 674 executed by Saxon troops being the largest. According to Wikipedia article on Virton “On August 22, 1914, at the onset of World War I, hundreds of inhabitants were summarily executed by the invading German army…” This is worth looking at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rape_of_Belgium
So I assume I am correct in reading this account as an open admission that he knew of and participated in war crimes and then published them in a censored wartime autobiography?
Another 100,000+ people protesting in Minsk. This is the third Sunday in a row with over 100,000 protestors. Again, not sure how Lukashenko rides this one out, although this does appear to be his plan. He does not have a lot of other good options. I suspect if he seriously cracks down he will probably be overthrown, and I gather he understands that. If he called Russia for aid, then they may never leave. If things get too disorderly, Russia may use that as an excuse to intervene. So, it appears that he is just trying to hang on and hope that this somehow wears itself out. As we saw with the Euromaidan protests in Ukraine, this is probably a vain hope. They went on for 3 months, under sniper fire and in the middle of winter.
Anyhow, watching and waiting. These are the types of events that make people like Putin and Xi Jinping nervous, and they do have reason to be in the age of coronavirus and declining economies.
