By the way, there is still a war going on in Afghanistan and it is not going that well: Helmand
I have always liked the U.N. Secretary General’s periodic updates on the war. The 7 March 2016 report is here: Report on Afghanistan
Just a few highlights:
12. The security situation deteriorated further in 2015. The United Nations recorded 22,634 security incidents, representing a 3 per cent increase compared with 2014 and the second-highest number since 2001. Since the issuance of my previous report, fighting has intensified in Helmand and Baghlan provinces, and Kunduz Province has remained volatile.
15. Reports indicate a substantial increase in casualties among the Afghan National Defence and Security Forces in 2015, the first year in which the forces confronted anti-government elements with much-reduced international military assistance…Insufficient recruitment and high attrition rates posed particular challenges to the sustainability of the Forces…At the current rate, recruitment cannot compensate for the losses generated by absenteeism and casualties, particularly within the Afghan National Army and the Afghan National Police.
24. On 14 February 2016…The report documented 11,002 civilian casualties (3,545 deaths and 7,457 injured) between 1 January and 31 December.
33. Economic growth…remained slow. In January….its growth projection for 2015 had been revised downward…to 1.5 percent…
As of 15 November 2015, there were 162,694 personnel on the official Afghan National Army roster and 6,907 personnel on the Afghan Air Force roster, for a total of 169,601 personnel, a figure that is 32,306 below the end-state objective for January 2016. Also as of 15 November, there were 144,591 personnel serving on the official Afghan National Police roster, a figure that is 43,409 below the end-state objective.
The U.S.has 9,800 people in Afghanistan, down from a peak of NATO forces at 140,000: NATO Training Mission
According to this article Afghan forces suffered 5,500 killed-in-action and more than 14,000 wounded in 2015.
Picture is from my book.
Have you come across any recent estimates of insurgent force size?