Coronavirus Mortality Rates update 13

My plan for now is to keep updating this post every Tuesday. The number of cases continue to increase dramatically, as sadly are the number of deaths, and of significance, so is the mortality rate. In countries that previously had low mortality rates, like Germany, they have now risen to above 1% and keep rising. Germany is now at 1.76%.

China continues to report very few new cases. I gather they are starting to relax their restrictions. What will happen now? If the virus is truly defeated and contained, then this should not be an issue. This was not the experience they had in Hong Kong. China has had 82,718 cases of which 77,410 are recovered (and 3,335 died). In contrast, the United States has 368,449 cases with only 19,919 recovered (and 10,993 deaths). We are now 27% of the world’s reported cases.

 

Country……….Cases…..…Deaths……Rate

World Wide……1,363,365….76,420….…5.61%

United States…….368,449….11,008..……2.99%

Spain………..……140,510….13,798……..9.82%

Italy………..……..132,547….16,523..….12.47%

Germany…….…..103,717……1,822…..…1.76%

France………………98,984…..8,926….….9.02%

China.………………82,718…..3,335.…….4.03%

Iran……………….…62,589…..3,872………6.19%

United Kingdom……52,301…..5,385…….10.30%

Turkey…….…………30,217……..649………2.15%

Switzerland……..…22,242……..787……….3.54%

Belgium….…………22,194……2,035………9.17%

Netherlands.………19,703…….2,108…….10.70%

Canada…………….16,667………323………1.94%

Austria……………..12,488……….243………1.95%

Portugal.…..…….…12,442………345………2.77%

Brazil……………….12,240……….566………4.62%

S. Korea……….…..10,331………192….…..1.86%

Israel…….……………9,006…..…..60…….…0.67%

Sweden…..…….……7,693…..….591……….7.68%

Russia…….…………7,497………..58……….0.77%

Australia………..……5,895..…..….45….……0.76%

Norway…………….…5,866..…..….83…….…1.41%

Ireland……………..…5,364………174.………3.24%

Denmark..….………..5,173………203………3.92%

India…………………..4,908………137.…..….2.79%

 

Sixty-two countries around the world with over a thousand reported cases. Last week it was 44 countries, the week before that it was 26 countries, and three weeks ago it was 16 countries. A few other entities of interest to this author that have less than a five thousand cases so far:

Pakistan………………4,004…..….55……….1.37%

Japan…………………3,906…..….92.….…..2.36%

Indonesia….…..……..2,738…….221……….8.07%

Mexico……………..…2,439…….125…….…5.13%

Iceland…………..……1,562…….…6…….…0.38%

Ukraine…………….…1,462…..….45…….…3.08%

Singapore…..……..…1,375……..…6…….…0.44%

Egypt…………..……..1,322……….85….……6.43%

New Zealand…………1,160……..…1…….…0.09%

Iraq…..………………..1,031..……..64….……6.21%

Hungary…………………817…….…47….……5.75%

Bahrain……….…….……756……..…4…..…..0.53%

Hong Kong….….………935……..…4………0.43%

Lebanon……..………..…548..………19….….3.47%

Andorra……….………….525.………21…..….4.00%

Afghanistan………………423………..14………3.31%

Taiwan…………….…..…376……..…5….…..1.33%

San Marino…………….…277……….32……..11.55%

Palestine…..……………..260…..……1……….0.38%

Vietnam….…………….…249……..…0……….0%

North Korea..…………..0……..…..…0…..….…0%

Syria……….……..……..0……..……..0…..….…0%

Yemen…………….……..0……..……..0….…..…0%

Libya……….…………….0………..…..0….…..…0%

Diamond Princess….712……………11……..….1.54%

 

Data is from Johns Hopkins CSSE 4/07/20 as of 9:42.07 AM EST. It is here: Johns Hopkins CSSE

A few more observations:

  1. It does appear that at best the mortality rate is around 1% if: 1) there is good health care and 2) there is good reporting.
    1. The 1% figure appears to be borne out by the reporting from South Korea and the more contained environment of the cruise ships.
      1. Still the South Korean mortality rate continues to grow to now 1.86%. I gather they have tested more than 300,000 people.
      2. The Diamond Princess deaths are at 11, for a 1.54% mortality rate. Is the mortality rate for an older population hovering around 2%?
    2. There are now few European countries that are reporting a rate of less than 1%. In most cases, it would appear that the mortality rate is going to increase over time. This has happened with German, Switzerland, Austria, Norway and Ireland. Two weeks ago they were all around 0.50%, now they are all over 1%.
      1. Germany is at  1.76%. Switzerland is at 3.54%, Austria is at 1.95%,  Norway is at 1.41% and Ireland is at 3.24%.
    3. The actual mortality rate is a big issue if one is going to do any estimate of potential impact (population * percent infected * mortality rate and modified by improvements in care and developments of vaccines). I have been thinking about post about this at some point…but…
      1. Do I do an estimate based upon a rate of 0.5%, 1%, 1.5% or 2%? Makes a big difference.
      2. Needless to say, the figure of 0.5% is hard to justify now. If one does estimates based upon a 1% mortality rate, the numbers are kind of scary.
  2. Needless to say, countries will high mortality rate obviously have a lot more cases than they are reporting.
  3. San Marino has a population of 33,562. With 277 cases, this makes it the “most infected” country in the world with 0.83% infected. San Marino also has a very high mortality rate at 11.55%. If the real mortality rate should be 1%, then this means they may well have almost 10% of the country infected.
    1. The Holy See (Vatican City) is second with 7 cases in around 1,000 people (0.70%)
    2. Andorra with a population of 76,177 and 525 cases I gather is now third at 0.69%. Is Andorra a snapshot of the future of Spain like San Marino looks like a snapshot of the future of Italy?
    3. Spain with 47,100,396 people and 140,510 cases maybe fourth (0.30%). I have not checked every country.
    4. Italy with 60,317,546 people and 132,547 cases may be fifth (0.22%). Because of the high mortality rates of Spain and Italy, I believe the level of infection there is much higher.

There is now a single line on this graph, which represents the entire world. The “Total Recovered” is reported at 292,467 out of 1,363,365 cases and 76,420 deaths.

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Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.
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Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.
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His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) , The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019), The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2023), Aces at Kursk (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024), Hunting Falcon: The Story of WWI German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024) and The Siege of Mariupol (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2024).
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Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

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