Coronavirus in the DC area – update 19

Latest weekly update of this coronavirus post. This week it has increased to 3,963 new cases. Last week week there were 3,672 new cases. It was 4,077 new cases two weeks ago. In contrast, Italy, the epicenter of the European outbreak, is reporting 412 new cases yesterday.

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 six weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 3:17:24 PM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week.…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445……..12,443……12,959…….593
Arlington, VA……………..237,521……….2,997…….3,118……..135
Alexandria VA……………160,530……….2,872….…3,014………60
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795……..16,019……16,642…….529
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772……………59….……..61……….6
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.…………..82…….…..92………..7
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..………5,117……..5,372…….115
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011..………9,139……..9,605……176
Manassas…………………..41,641……….1,620……..1,670……..23
Manassas Park………….…17,307..………..505…….….518……….7
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……….1,300………1,424………9
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144.….…….380………..414……….4
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567…….17,976……18,641……806
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308…….23,156……24,098..…764
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…….93,665……97,628…3,234

This is a 4% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 3.31%, which is high. The population known to have been infected is 1.82% or one confirmed case for every 55 people.

Also, of interest to me is Albemarle County, VA with 856 confirmed cases (791 last week) and 16 deaths and Charlottesville, VA which has 550 confirmed cases (504 last week) and 15 deaths. Montgomery County, VA has 312 cases this week (291 last week) and 3 deaths. These two areas are the home of UVA (Charlottesville) and Virginia Tech (Blacksburg), two large universities located in a more rural environment. UVA announced last week that they were delaying the movement of students into the dorms from 19 August until  8 September. On the other hand, VT and many other Virginia universities are opening up on time (late August). We shall see if there is a difference.

Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area in the outer banks, has 210 cases (202 last week) and 2 deaths. The number of cases in all these areas is growing at a worrisome rate. Virginia itself is not doing well, running around a thousand new cases a day right now.

Below are the daily graphs for the District of Columbia, Virginia and Maryland:

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Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.
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Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.
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His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) , The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019), The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2023), Aces at Kursk (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024), Hunting Falcon: The Story of WWI German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024) and The Siege of Mariupol (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2024).
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Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

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