Coronavirus in the DC area – update 22

Latest weekly update of this coronavirus post. This week it has increased by 3,828 new cases. Last week week there were 3,044 new cases. This is definitely heading in the wrong direction. In contrast, Italy, the epicenter of the European outbreak, is reporting 975 new cases yesterday. They are dealing with some new outbreaks as are a lot of countries that appeared to have the virus under control.

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 nine weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 11:28 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week……Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….13,684…..14,077…..…..608
Arlington, VA……………..237,521………3,415.……3,569…..….141
Alexandria VA……………160,530………3,309.……3,415…….…62
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795……..17,784.…18,606.……..561
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772…………..66.………66…..…..…7
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.…………106.….…121…..……..7
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..………5,769……6,053……….118
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011..…….10,470….10,944……….187
Manassas…………………..41,641……….1,769……1,813…………24
Manassas Park………….…17,307..……..…554………571……….…7
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……….1,612…….1,729………..11
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144.….…….455…..….486……….…5
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……..19,599…..20,190………821
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……..25,648..…26,428..……796
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425……104,240…108,068……3,355

This is a 4% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 3.11%, which is high, but has been steadily declining over the last few weeks. The population known to have been infected is 2.01% or one confirmed case for every 50 people.

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This included James Madison at Harrisburg, UVA at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech at Blacksburg. UVA is opening up for students this weekend. The other two universities opened up for students two or three weeks ago. They have both had problems. James Madison is now reporting over 500 cases on campus and have moved their classes to being online. Virginia Tech is now reporting at least 178 new cases on campus. Will UVA be next?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/education/james-madison-university-online-coronavirus/2020/09/01/2ebc9036-ecac-11ea-ab4e-581edb849379_story.html?ocid=uxbndlbing

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/total-number-of-virus-cases-at-virginia-tech-rises-to-178/ar-BB18ykh7

Harrisonburg, VA is reporting 1,496 cases and 33 deaths, while Rockingham County, where the city resides, is reporting 1,080 cases and 20 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located.

Albemarle County, VA has 1,052 confirmed cases (975 last week) and 18 deaths and Charlottesville, VA which has 699 confirmed cases (592 last week) and 20 deaths. This is where UVA is located.

Further south, Montgomery County, VA has 600 cases this week (392 last week) and 4 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Virginia itself is not doing well, running around a thousand new cases a day right now and has been for the last few weeks.

Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area in the outer banks, has had 242 cases (233 last week) and 2 deaths.

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Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.
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Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.
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His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) , The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019), The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2023), Aces at Kursk (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024), Hunting Falcon: The Story of WWI German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024) and The Siege of Mariupol (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2024).
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Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

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5 Comments

  1. Rockingham County surrounds the City of Harrisonburg (one of the score of official cities in Virginia), similar to Fairfax City being surrounded by Fairfax County.

      • Harrisonburg is an official city,even at 50K, as is Fairfax City, Falls Church, etc.

        As you might recall from social studies classes at West Springfield High Schools, under Virginia law, all municipalities incorporated as cities are independent cities and are not part of any county. Also, in Virginia, a county seat may be an independent city surrounded by, but not part of, the county of which it is the administrative center; for example, Fairfax City is both the county seat of Fairfax County and is completely surrounded by Fairfax County but the city is politically independent of the county.

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