Coronavirus in the DC area – update 23

Latest weekly update of this coronavirus post. This week it has increased by 3,132 new cases. Last week week there were 3,828 new cases. This is still not great. In contrast, Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the epicenter of the European outbreak, is reporting 1,369 new cases yesterday. They are dealing with some new outbreaks as are a lot of countries that appeared to have the virus under control.

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 ten weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 9:28 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week……Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….14,077…..14,362………..611
Arlington, VA……………..237,521………3,569…….3,679……….143
Alexandria VA……………160,530………3,415……3,546………….62
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795…….18,606.…19,177………..566
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772…………..66………..66………..…7
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.………..121………126…………..7
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..…..…6,053.…..6,273……….118
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011..…….10,944.…11,364………188
Manassas…………………..41,641……….1,813……1,842………..24
Manassas Park………….…17,307..……….571.……..587…………7
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……….1,729.…..1,799………..13
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144.….…….486……….511…………4
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567…….20,190..…20,766……..828
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308…….26,428……27,102…….803
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…..108,068….111,200…..3,381

This is a 3% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 3.04%, which is high, but has been steadily declining over the last few weeks. The population known to have been infected is 2.07% or one confirmed case for every 48 people.

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison at Harrisburg, UVA at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech at Blacksburg. UVA is opening up for students this weekend. The other two universities opened up for students two or three weeks ago. They have both had problems.

Harrisonburg, VA is reporting 1,989 cases (1,496 last week) and 34 deaths, while Rockingham County, where the city resides, is reporting 1,183 cases (1,0808 last week) and 20 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located. Last week they sent home 6,000 students who were in the dorms (which I think is a mistake). They originally decided to do in-person classes and did not test their students before they arrived. The end result was a fiasco.

Albemarle County, VA has 1,101 confirmed cases (1,052 last week) and 19 deaths and Charlottesville, VA which has 819 confirmed cases (699 last week) and 24 deaths. This is where UVA is located. They tested their students before admission, opened up campus two weeks later and are not doing in-person classes.

UVA had a covid tracker which is worth looking at: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker

What is interesting is that they tested 18,215 students before admission and ended up with 65 cases (0.36% or one in every 280 students).

Further south, Montgomery County, VA has 1,073 cases this week (600 last week) and 4 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) itself is not doing well, running around a thousand new cases a day right now (834 cases yesterday) and it has been for the last few weeks.

Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area in the outer banks, has had 254 cases (242 last week) and 2 deaths.

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Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.
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Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.
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His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) , The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019), The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2023), Aces at Kursk (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024), Hunting Falcon: The Story of WWI German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024) and The Siege of Mariupol (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2024).
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Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

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3 Comments

  1. the CDC admits that the actual number of deaths FROM the virus is very small – the popular statistic includes everyone whose death has the slightest relation to the virus – even though the death was caused by any of the usual reasons

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