Coronavirus in the DC area – update 26

Weekly update number 26 on the coronavirus in the DC area, meaning I have been doing this post now for half a year. As it is “close to home,” I sort of feel a need to keep doing it.

This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 3,111 new cases. Last week there were 3,387 new cases. There does seem to be a pattern in that the spread of the virus has been reduced from when we were seeing 9,000 or more cases a week several months ago, to a more controlled 3,000 or more cases a week now.

In contrast, Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the epicenter of the European outbreak, is reporting 1,647 new cases for the day yesterday. They are dealing with some new outbreaks as are a lot of countries that appeared to have the virus under control.

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 thirteen weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 11:23 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….15,050…..15,326…….627
Arlington, VA……………..237,521………3,877……3,995…….150
Alexandria VA……………160,530………3,741……3,852………69
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795…….20,437…..20,981…….588
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772………….69…..…..70……..…7
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.…….….134……..137………..8
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..….….6,720…..6,889….…125
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011..……12,215…12,567….…205
Manassas…………………..41,641….…..1,904……1,931………26
Manassas Park………….…17,307..………..607.…….614…….…8
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……….1,971..…2,028……..17
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144.….…….531……..547…..….5
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567…….21,933.…22,584..…849
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308…….28,715.…29,494..…828
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…..117,904…121,015…3,512

This is a 3% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 2.90%, which is high, but has been steadily declining over the last few weeks. The population known to have been infected is 2.26% or one confirmed case for every 44 people. This is a long way from “herd immunity.”

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. Maybe one-third of the students at these universities are from Northern Virginia. UVA opened up for students three weeks ago. The other two universities opened up for students over a month ago. They have all had problems.

Harrisonburg, VA is reporting 2,667 cases (2,541 last week) and 34 deaths, while Rockingham County, where the town resides, is reporting 1,460 cases (1,390 last week) and 22 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located. A few weeks ago they sent home 6,000 students who were in the dorms (which I think was a mistake). They originally decided to do in-person classes and did not test their students before they arrived. The end result was a fiasco.

Charlottesville, VA has 1,246 confirmed cases (1,105 last week) and 29 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA, where the town resides, has 1,306 confirmed cases (1,203 last week) and 21 deaths. This is where UVA is located. UVA had a covid tracker which is worth looking at: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. They have been having a growth in cases since they reopened, but put in new regulations and restrictions this last week, so the number of new cases is now lower. They may have been better served to have tighter restrictions before they had a problem until waiting until they do.

Further south, Montgomery County, VA has 1,997 cases this week (1,783 last week) and 4 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) itself is not doing well, running a little under a thousand new cases a day right now (901 cases yesterday).

Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area in the outer banks, has had 272 cases (264 last week) and 2 deaths.

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Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.
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Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.
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His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) , The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019), The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2023), Aces at Kursk (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024), Hunting Falcon: The Story of WWI German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024) and The Siege of Mariupol (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2024).
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Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

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