Coronavirus in the DC area – update 28

Weekly update number 28 on the coronavirus in the DC area, meaning I have been doing this post for over half a year. As it is “close to home,” I sort of feel a need to keep doing it.

This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 3,784 new cases. Last week there were only 2,592 new cases. So back on the rise again. So we had two weeks of less than 3,000 cases a week and now it has gone back up.

In contrast, Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, is reporting 5,898 new cases for the day yesterday. They have almost climbed up to levels of infection they were at in late March. Still, as bad as it is in Italy, it is not as bad as the UK (17K cases yesterday), France (22K) or Spain (7K cases yesterday but 28K the day before). The U.S., which has never gotten the virus under control, had 52K new cases yesterday.

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 fifteen weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 10:24 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445……….15,652….16,068……637
Arlington, VA……………..237,521………..4,068……4,228……152
Alexandria VA……………160,530………..3,932……4,045……..73
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795………21,414….22,185……599
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772……………72……….75…….…7
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.………….140……..144………..8
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..………7,026……7,303…….128
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011..…….12,811.….13,281…….216
Manassas…………………..41,641….……1,954…….1,998………25
Manassas Park………….…17,307..………..616………627……….8
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……….2,081…….2,174……..19
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144.…..…….553………568……….5
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……..23,135…..23,817……859
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……..30,153…..30,878…….840
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425……123,607…127,391….3,576

This is a 3% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 2.81%, which is high, but has been steadily declining. The population known to have been infected is 2.37% or one confirmed case for every 42 people. Even if the actual infection rate is four times or more higher, this is a long way from “herd immunity.” I personally do not know anyone that has been infected, although I know a few people who have been tested due to danger of exposure.

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg.

Harrisonburg, VA is reporting 2,864 cases (2,739 last week) and 35 deaths, while Rockingham County, where the town resides, is reporting 1,640 cases (1,558 last week) and 22 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located. A few weeks ago they sent home 6,000 students who were in the dorms (which I think was a mistake). They originally decided to do in-person classes and did not test their students before they arrived. The end result was a fiasco. I gather JMU is re-opening again for students. Hopefully they will do a better job this time.

Charlottesville, VA has 1,467 confirmed cases (1,383 last week) and 31 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA, where the town resides, has 1,443 confirmed cases (1,385 last week) and 22 deaths. This is where UVA is located. UVA had a covid tracker which is worth looking at: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. They have been having a growth in cases since they reopened, but put in new regulations and restrictions these last weeks, so the number of new cases is declining.

Further south, Montgomery County, VA has 2,381 cases this week (2,165 last week) and 5 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million)  is back up to over 1,000 cases a day. It did drop down to 623 new cases last week, but does not seem to want to establish a steady downward trend. It continues running a thousand new cases a day.

Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area in the outer banks, has had 309 cases (293 last week) and 3 deaths. With summer over, not sure why this continues to grow.

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Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.
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Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.
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His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) , The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019), The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2023), Aces at Kursk (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024), Hunting Falcon: The Story of WWI German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024) and The Siege of Mariupol (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2024).
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Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

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