Coronavirus in the DC area – update 30

Weekly update number 30 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 4,326 new cases. Last week there were 4,012 new cases. So it continues to rise. So last month we had two weeks of less than 3,000 cases a week and now it has gone back up.

In contrast, Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, is in trouble with 22K new cases reported for yesterday. It is an amazing collapse of control from what they had. It has gotten bad across Europe, in the UK (23K cases yesterday), France (35K), Spain (18K), Germany (13K) and Russia (16K)  The U.S., which has never gotten the virus under control, had 73K new cases yesterday. This is in contrast to places like China (47 cases yesterday), Japan (643), South Korea (103), Vietnam (3), Australia (14) and New Zealand (2). 

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 seventeen weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 12:24 PM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….16,498……16,973..…644
Arlington, VA……………..237,521……..4,437……..4,630……154
Alexandria VA……………160,530………4,144….…4,269….….74
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795…….22,849……23,648……605
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772………….75……..….75……….7
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.………..157……….159………..8
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..….….7,634….…7,876…….130
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011..……13,735……14,235……223
Manassas…………………..41,641…..…..2,018……..2,045….…27
Manassas Park………….…17,307..….……634………..648………8
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……….2,287……..2,373….…21
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144.…….….576……….588………6
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567…….24,664……25,562…..870
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308…….31,695……32,648…..859
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…..131,403….135,729…3,636

This is a 3% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 2.68%, which is high, but has been steadily declining. The population known to have been infected is 2.53% or one confirmed case for every 40 people. Even if the actual infection rate is four times or more higher, this is a long way from “herd immunity.”

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg.

Harrisonburg, VA is reporting 3,040 cases (2,945 last week) and 35 deaths, while Rockingham County, where the town resides, is reporting 1,764 cases (1,701 last week) and 27 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located.

Charlottesville, VA has 1,597 confirmed cases (1,536 last week) and 31 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA, where the town resides, has 1,585 confirmed cases (1,501 last week) and 24 deaths. This is where UVA is located. UVA had a covid tracker which is worth looking at: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. They had been having a growth in cases since they reopened, but put in new regulations and restrictions these last few weeks, so the number of new cases has declined and stayed down. So far, they have been doing a decent job at containing this.

Further south, Montgomery County, VA has 2,788 cases this week (2,565 last week) and 5 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million)  is still running around 1,000 cases a day (1,123 yesterday). This has been the case for months. It does not seem to want to establish a steady downward trend, but at least it is not going up (maybe).

Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area in the outer banks, has had 370 cases (341 last week) and 3 deaths. With summer over, not sure why this continues to grow.

Share this:
Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.
...
Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.
...
His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) , The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019), The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2023), Aces at Kursk (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024), Hunting Falcon: The Story of WWI German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024) and The Siege of Mariupol (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2024).
...
Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

Articles: 1516

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *