Coronavirus in the DC area – weekly update 44

Colorized picture from California, 1918. Source: reddit

The number of cases and deaths from coronavirus has declined but is still very high. This is weekly update number 44 on the coronavirus in the DC area.

This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 11,498 new cases. Last week it was 16,058 new cases and the week before it was 18,934 new cases. Thirteen weeks ago there were only 4,256 new cases. We look to be about six months way from having a vaccine available for everyone.

Almost all of Europe is still struggling with controlling the spread of the disease. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, is still struggling with 10K new cases reported for yesterday.  It remains high in the UK (17K yesterday) although it continues to drop from its high of 68K new cases on 8 January. Yesterday they reported for France (23K), Spain (29K), Germany (8K) and Russia (16K). The U.S., which has never gotten the virus under control, had 114K new cases yesterday. This is improvement for a high of 300K new cases on 2 January. This is in contrast to places like China (50 cases), Japan (2,313), South Korea (467), Taiwan (3), Vietnam (32), Singapore (19), Australia (6) and New Zealand (3 cases on 1 Feb). 

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 cases thirty-one weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 11:21 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….35,865…..37,199……..926
Arlington, VA……………..237,521..…..11,414…..11,867……..203
Alexandria VA……………160,530………9,236…….9,544……..104
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795.……58,092….60,265………792
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772.…….….285………296…………6
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574..….…….413………437………..12
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850….…19,508….20,791………184

Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011…….34,314…..35,693………317
Manassas…………………..41,641..……..3,608……3,753………..33
Manassas Park………….…17,307….……1,062……1,073……..…8
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960….…..7,586……8,123……….50
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144……..1,468……1,569……….14
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567…….57,685….59,439……1,320
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308…….66,535.…68,490……1,243
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425……307,041…318,539……5,212

 

This is a 4% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 1.64%. This last week, there were 167 new fatalities reported out of 11,498 new cases. This is a mortality rate of 1.45%. This high mortality is probably as a result of the number of cases dropping, while the mortality numbers are tied to the number of cases several weeks earlier. The population known to have been infected is 5.94% or one confirmed case for every 17 people. The actual rate of infection has been higher, perhaps as much as 4 times higher.

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. Most of them were emptied out due to Thanksgiving and the upcoming Christmas holidays. Most of these universities went back in session in mid-January, except for UVA, which started its sessions this week.

Harrisonburg, VA (pop. 54K) is reporting 5,364 cases (5,223 last week) and 63 deaths (up 15 these last three weeks!), while Rockingham County (pop. 81K), where the town resides, is reporting 5,589 cases (5,434 last week) and 74 deaths (up 20 these last three weeks!). This is where James Madison University is located.

Charlottesville, VA (pop. 47K) has 2,752 cases (2,681 last week) and 39 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA (pop. 109K), where the town resides, has 3,966 cases (3,789 last week) and 36 deaths. This is where UVA is located. UVA had good covid tracker website: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. This is definitely worth looking at, as you can see how they were able to bring the virus under control with a student body of 25,000.  

Lynchburg (pop. 82K), the home of Liberty University, has 6,279 cases (6,003 last week) cases and 79 deaths (19 deaths these last two weeks).

Further south, Montgomery County, VA (pop. 99K) has 6,414 cases (6,188 last week) and 65 deaths (up 17 these last three weeks!). This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had 2,740 cases yesterday. Last week it was 4,707. For a long time, it pretty much ran 1,000 cases a day, neither going up or going down.

Dare County, North Carolina (pop. 37K), a beach area in the outer banks, has 1,701 cases (1,629 last week) and 6 deaths. With summer over, not sure why this continues to grow. It is growing a lot faster than during the summer.

Share this:
Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.
...
Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.
...
His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) , The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019), The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2023), Aces at Kursk (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024), Hunting Falcon: The Story of WWI German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024) and The Siege of Mariupol (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2024).
...
Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

Articles: 1516

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *