Coronavirus in the DC area – weekly update 63

Colorized picture from California, 1918. Source: reddit

This is weekly update number 63 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) slightly declined to 461 new cases over the week. Last week it was 477 new cases. Twenty-one weeks ago it was 18,934 new cases.

Europe also seems to be slowly bringing the virus under control. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, reported 1.3 K new cases for yesterday. The UK has had an upswing, reporting 8K new cases yesterday. Its high was 68K new cases on 8 January. France has the fourth highest number of cases in the world (after U.S., India and Brazil). Yesterday they reported for France 3K new cases. Their death count of 110,692 (population 67.4 million) is the eighth highest reported deaths in the world (behind U.S., Brazil, India, Mexico, UK, Italy and Russia). Still, it is less than the UK with 128,181 dead in a population of 67.1 million, Italy with 127,101 deaths in a population of 59.2 million, Belgium with 25,099 deaths out of a population of 11.6 million, Brazil with 490,696 deaths out of a population of 213.3 million and Mexico with 230,428 deaths out of a population of 126.0 million. These five countries have a higher reported mortality rate than the United States (600,313 deaths in a population of 331.9 million). Don’t know for certain if they are the only five countries with a higher mortality rate, but I think so. The new case count yesterday for Spain remains around 3.5K, for Germany it is 1K and for Russia 14K new cases a day. Keep in mind, these are daily rates. They do add up over the course of a week. The U.S. (population 331.7 million) had 11K new cases yesterday, which is good progress. Our high was 300K new cases on 2 January. In Asia and the Pacific the number of reported cases remains low: China (23), Japan (1,414), South Korea (544), Taiwan (135), Vietnam (423), Singapore (14), Australia (13) and New Zealand (2). Again, these are daily rates. Japan’s rate is pretty high for a country about to host the Olympics.

All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of today, 10:22 AM:  Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….49,119…..49,213…..1,138
Arlington, VA……………..237,521..…..15,295….15,296………257
Alexandria VA……………160,530…….11,846…..11,851……..137
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795.……77,028…..77,011…..1,107
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772.……….430………429……..…8
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.……….567……….567………20
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850……..27,986…..28,019……281
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011……..45,510…..45,607……504
Manassas…………………..41,641..…….4,311…….4,310……..47
Manassas Park………….…17,307….…..1,218…….1,219……..11
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960…….11,456……11,462……..82
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144……..2,140…….2,150……..25
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……70,995…..71,071…1,619
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……85,218..…85,375…1,589
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425….403,119….403,580…6,825

The Mortality Rate is 1.69%. There were 25 fatalities in the last week compared to 461 new cases. This is a mortality rate of 5.42% (which is high, but probably caused by the declining number of reported new cases). The population known to have been infected is 7.52% or one confirmed case for every 13 people. 

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had only 137 new cases yesterday. Last week it was 182 cases. Twenty weeks ago it was 4,707. 

Dare County, North Carolina (pop. 37K), a beach area in the outer banks, has 2,171 cases (2,156 last week) and 10 deaths.

Share this:
Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.
...
Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.
...
His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) , The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019), The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2023), Aces at Kursk (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024), Hunting Falcon: The Story of WWI German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024) and The Siege of Mariupol (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2024).
...
Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

Articles: 1555

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *