Coronavirus in the DC area – weekly update 65

Colorized picture from California, 1918. Source: reddit

This is weekly update number 65 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) slightly declined to 439 new cases over the week. Last week it was 455 new cases. Twenty-three weeks ago it was 18,934 new cases.

Europe also seems to be slowly bringing the virus under control. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, reported 677 new cases for yesterday. The UK has had an upswing that seems to only be getting worse. They are reporting 20K new cases yesterday. Its high was 68K new cases on 8 January. It was down below 2K cases a day a month ago. France has the fourth highest number of reported cases in the world (after U.S., India and Brazil). Yesterday they reported for France 3K new cases yesterday. Their death count of 111,232 (population 67.4 million) is the eighth highest reported deaths in the world (behind U.S., Brazil, India, Mexico, Russia, UK, and Italy). Still, it is less than the UK with 128,390 dead in a population of 67.1 million, Italy with 127,542 deaths in a population of 59.2 million, Belgium with 25,170 deaths out of a population of 11.6 million, Brazil with 515,985 deaths out of a population of 213.3 million, Mexico with 232,803 deaths out of a population of 126.0 million, Argentina with 93,668 deaths out of a population of 45.8 million) and Colombia with 105,934 deaths out of a population of 51.0 million. These seven countries have a higher reported mortality rate than the United States (604,479 deaths in a population of 331.9 million). Don’t know for certain if they are the only seven countries with a higher reported mortality rate, I suspect Russia, with a calculated excess deaths of 460,000 is also higher (see previous blog post). The new case count yesterday for Spain has increased to 7K for yesterday, for Germany it is only 569 and for Russia it is up to 20K new cases a day. Keep in mind, these are daily rates. They do add up over the course of a week. The U.S. (population 331.7 million) had 12K new cases yesterday, which is about the same as the last two weeks. Our high was 300K new cases on 2 January. In Asia and the Pacific the number of reported cases remains low: China (low…can’t read the chart), Japan (1,401), South Korea (794), Taiwan (54 !), Vietnam (371 !), Singapore (354 !), Australia (42 !) and New Zealand (1). Again, these are daily rates. Japan’s rate is pretty high for a country about to host the Olympics.

All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of today, 10:21 AM:  Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….49,284…..49,347….1,141
Arlington, VA……………..237,521..…..15,299…..15,301…….258
Alexandria VA……………160,530…….11,864…..11,882…….139
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795.……77,057…..77,136…1,115
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772.……….429……….430………8
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.……….571……….572……..20
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850……..28,065…..28,097……283
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011……..45,728…..45,792……506
Manassas…………………..41,641..……..4,312……4,315……..48
Manassas Park………….…17,307….……1,219……1,221…..…11
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……..11,491…..11,537…..…82
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144………2,150……2,154…..…25
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……71,119…..71,171….1,623
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……85,437…..85,509….1,596
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425….404,025…404,464….6,855

The Mortality Rate is 1.69%. There were 11 fatalities in the last week compared to 439 new cases. This is a mortality rate of 2.51% (which is high, but probably caused by the declining number of reported new cases). The population known to have been infected is 7.54% or one confirmed case for every 13 people.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had only 148 new cases yesterday. Last week it was 144 cases. Twenty-two weeks ago it was 4,707.

Dare County, North Carolina (pop. 37K), a beach area in the outer banks, has 2,185 cases (2,181 last week) and 10 deaths.

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Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.
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Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.
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His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) , The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019), The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2023), Aces at Kursk (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024), Hunting Falcon: The Story of WWI German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024) and The Siege of Mariupol (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2024).
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Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

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