Summation of Afghanistan Chapter

Afghan police in training, near Jalalabad, 15 August 2010 (photo by friend of William A. Lawrence II).

This is a summation of the 13 posts drawn (copied) from Chapter 21: Relating a Force Ratio Model to Afghanistan (pages 253-273) of America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam:


So What Does My Book Say About Afghanistan? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

So What Does My Book Say About Afghanistan? – part 2 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

So What Does My Book Say About Afghanistan? – part 3 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

From that post:

At the time of that briefing, we had 110,790 troops there. The Dupuy Institute estimated insurgent strength between 15,000 and 25,000, with us leaning towards the higher figure. So if the insurgency was a regional or factional insurgency, then even at a force ratio of 4.43 to 1 (assuming 25,000 insurgents), we had an 84 percent chance of winning. Yet, it did not appear that we were winning. [bolding added for this post]”

So What Does My Book Say About Afghanistan? – part 4 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

So What Does My Book Say About Afghanistan? – part 5 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

From that post: 

The problem is if the insurgency is broadly based, then those surge forces needed to stay in place for the next ten years, with the expected continued losses and expenses. [bolding added for this post]

Dueling Surges | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

So What Does My Book Say About Afghanistan? – part 7 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

So What Does My Book Say About Afghanistan? – part 8 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

So What Does My Book Say About Afghanistan? – part 9 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

So What Does My Book Say About Afghanistan? – part 10 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

So What Does My Book Say About Afghanistan? – part 11 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

What Does My Book Say About Afghanistan? (part 12) – Political Will | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

What Does My Book Say About Afghanistan? (part 13) – Conclusions | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

From that post:

If history is a guide, then this government will be replaced one way or the other several years after we withdraw. What will replace it is hard to determine, but will probably include a return to some extent of the Taliban, or perhaps with them leading the new government. It is also distinctly possible that the country will return back into civil war. None of this fulfills our objectives.

This was written in early 2015.  

Share this:
Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.
...
Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.
...
His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) , The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019), The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2023), Aces at Kursk (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024), Hunting Falcon: The Story of WWI German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024) and The Siege of Mariupol (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2024).
...
Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

Articles: 1516

2 Comments

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *