This is a summation of the 13 posts drawn (copied) from Chapter 21: Relating a Force Ratio Model to Afghanistan (pages 253-273) of America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam:
So What Does My Book Say About Afghanistan? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)
So What Does My Book Say About Afghanistan? – part 2 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)
So What Does My Book Say About Afghanistan? – part 3 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)
From that post:
At the time of that briefing, we had 110,790 troops there. The Dupuy Institute estimated insurgent strength between 15,000 and 25,000, with us leaning towards the higher figure. So if the insurgency was a regional or factional insurgency, then even at a force ratio of 4.43 to 1 (assuming 25,000 insurgents), we had an 84 percent chance of winning. Yet, it did not appear that we were winning. [bolding added for this post]”
So What Does My Book Say About Afghanistan? – part 4 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)
So What Does My Book Say About Afghanistan? – part 5 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)
From that post:
The problem is if the insurgency is broadly based, then those surge forces needed to stay in place for the next ten years, with the expected continued losses and expenses. [bolding added for this post]
Dueling Surges | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)
So What Does My Book Say About Afghanistan? – part 7 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)
So What Does My Book Say About Afghanistan? – part 8 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)
So What Does My Book Say About Afghanistan? – part 9 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)
So What Does My Book Say About Afghanistan? – part 10 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)
So What Does My Book Say About Afghanistan? – part 11 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)
From that post:
If history is a guide, then this government will be replaced one way or the other several years after we withdraw. What will replace it is hard to determine, but will probably include a return to some extent of the Taliban, or perhaps with them leading the new government. It is also distinctly possible that the country will return back into civil war. None of this fulfills our objectives.
This was written in early 2015.
Excellent analysis.
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