Dupuy’s Verities vs the Russo-Ukrainian War

So, we have had almost three full years of conventional war in and around Ukraine. Back in the 1970s- 1980s Trevor Dupuy assembled a list of factors (or verities) that influence and describe conventional combat. They covered combat in three different areas. They were 1) The Timeless Verities of Combat (13 verities), 2) Combat Attrition Verities (29 verities), and 3) Combat Advance Rates (15 verities).

They are listed below in these three posts:

The Timeless Verities of Combat – The Dupuy Institute

Trevor N. Dupuy’s Combat Attrition Verities – The Dupuy Institute

Trevor Dupuy’s Combat Advance Rate Verities – The Dupuy Institute

They are listed in detail in my book War by Numbers, although I edited a few for brevity.

They are listed in detail in Trevor Dupuy’s 1987 book Understanding War. They are also listed in his 1980 book Evolution of Weapons and Warfare.

They have been around for a while. I think they are a significant list and of course have been coded into his combat models the QJM and TNDM, which actually have proven track record of making good predictions. I do think they have been underutilized and underappreciated by the wider defense community.

Anyhow, my questions for the community that reads our blog is:

1. Which of these verities have been re-confirmed by war in Ukraine?, and
2. Which of these verities have been called in doubt by the war in Ukraine?

Interested to see the responses.

 

 

 

P.S. Some related links:

TDI Friday Read: Principles Of War & Verities Of Combat – The Dupuy Institute

Dupuy’s Verities: Offensive Action – The Dupuy Institute

Dupuy’s Verities: The Power Of Defense – The Dupuy Institute

The Combat Value of Surprise – The Dupuy Institute

Dupuy’s Verities: The Utility Of Defense – The Dupuy Institute

Dupuy’s Verities: Initiative – The Dupuy Institute

Dupuy’s Verities: Fortification – The Dupuy Institute

Dupuy’s Verities: The Advantage Of The Offensive – The Dupuy Institute

Dupuy’s Verities: The Requirements For Successful Defense – The Dupuy Institute

A Comment On The Importance Of Reserves In Combat – The Dupuy Institute

Dupuy’s Verities: Surprise – The Dupuy Institute

Dupuy’s Verities: The Effects of Firepower in Combat – The Dupuy Institute

Dupuy’s Verities: The Inefficiency of Combat – The Dupuy Institute

Dupuy’s Verities: Combat Power =/= Firepower – The Dupuy Institute

Dupuy’s Verities: The Complexities of Combat – The Dupuy Institute

Response to Question on Dupuy’s Combat Attrition Verities – The Dupuy Institute

Average Losses per Day in Division-level Engagements on the Eastern Front in 1943 – The Dupuy Institute

People keep referencing us on the 3-to-1 Rule – The Dupuy Institute

Last Six Blog Posts – The Dupuy Institute

Shout out to Echoes of Past – The Dupuy Institute

These are all the posts you get if you click on the category “Dupuy’ Verities”:  Dupuy’s Verities – The Dupuy Institute

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Christopher A. Lawrence
Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience.
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Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation.
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His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) , The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019), The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2023), Aces at Kursk (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024), Hunting Falcon: The Story of WWI German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024) and The Siege of Mariupol (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2024).
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Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

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