Mystics & Statistics

Is this my last Kursk book?

The Aces at Kursk book may be my last Kursk book I will do for a while, depending on demand. From my original mega-book I have prepared two books, The Battle of Prokhorovka and Aces at Kursk. From the original book I can prepare two more books: The Battle of Tolstoye Woods and The Belgorod Offensive. These four books would effectively complete the serialization of my original book. I could also create one additional book, which would be a 300-page book for a more general audience addressing the entire battle in the south.

Also in my files are the German and Soviet research materials and draft texts to produce two or three others books covering the Soviet offensive to take Kharkov in February 1943, the German counteroffensive to retake Kharkov in March 1943 and the Soviet offensive to take Kharkov in August 1943. As part of our urban warfare work, we pulled up the unit records for both sides for the three battles in and around Kharkov in 1943. The fighting in February and March of 1943 was the fighting that immediately preceded the Battle of Kursk. They are probably best covered in a single book. The fighting in August 1943 is a continuation of the Battle of Kursk and is considered part of the Battle of Kursk by Soviet historians.

This would potentially allow for a series of six to eight books covering most of the fighting on the Russian Front in the south from February to August 1943. But I am not sure whether I should do that or move onto other projects. Right now, leaning towards moving onto other projects.

Size of Fleets around the South China Sea, Part 2

So, China has 2 carriers, 36 destroyers, 52 frigates and 67 subs (SSN and SSK) to enforce it’s claims to the South China sea. All the nations that have competing claims (Taiwan, Philippines, Indonesia, Brunei, Malaysia and Vietnam) have a total of 4 destroyers, 43 frigates and 17 subs (SSK). This is not an even match. But, there are a few other players in the immediate region and there are a few other players in the Pacific that may have some influence. Lets look at them:

Also in the area are the following countries:

…………………….Singapore…..Thailand…..Cambodia

Small carrier………………………….1

Destroyers……….0
Frigates……………6………………..7

Corvettes…………6…………………7

Littoral……………..8

Submarines……..4………………….1

Patrol vessels…..2………………….8

Patrol ships…………………………22……………..21

Patrol boats…………………………23

LPD………………..4………………..1

LST……………………………………2

LCU…………………………………..9………………1

Mine Sweeper…..4………………….5

Others……………3………………….5

Auxilleries…………………………..17

Riverine Patrol Boats…………….189

 

Not connected to the South China Sea, but close enough to get our attention are the following:

………………………….S. Korea……N. Korea…..Japan…..Australia….New Zealand

Helicopter carriers……1……………………………….4……………2

Cruisers…………………………………………………..8

Destroyers…………….12………………………………22…………..2
Frigates………………..11…………….3………………10…………..8…………….2

Corvettes……………..12…………….14………………6
Submarines…………..18…………….70……………..20…………..6

Patrol vessels………….0……………………………………………………………..2

Patrol ships…………..71……………………………….13………………………….2

Missiles boats…………………………30

Torpedo boats……………………….247

Patrol boats…………………………..191……………….6…………..2

LSD……………………………………………………………………….1

LST……………………..8…………………………………3

Other Amphib………….5………………………………..2………………………….1

Mine warfare………….11……………30………………26…………..6

Other……………………2………………………………..8…………..7…………….1

Auxiliary……………….20……………………………….21………….2

 

Needless to say, in an extreme emergency (which would probably involve the U.S.) we would probably expect Japan, Australia, South Korea and Taiwan to cooperate. This is a total of 7 carriers, 8 cruisers, 40 destroyers, 51 frigates and 48 submarines compared to China’s 2 carriers, 36 destroyers, 52 frigates and 67 subs (SSN and SSK)

 

Finally there is the Russian Navy, which has 1 carrier, 2 battle cruisers, 11 destroyers, 10 frigates and around 45 submarines (SSGN, SSN and SSK), although not all will be in the Pacific. Then there is the United States which has 11 carriers, 9 amphibious carriers, 22 cruisers, 69 destroyers, 20 Littoral Combat Ships and 52 submarines (SSGN and SSN). Not all of these will be it the Pacific either. Details are here:

U.S. Navy Compared to Russian Navy

 

The Size of Fleets in the South China Sea, Part 1

These has been a little rumbling lately in the news about Malaysia and Vietnam asserting their territorial rights in the South China Sea. Of course, part of the area they asserting is part of their 200 mile economic exclusion zone happens to be territory that Red China also claims. These are not the only countries that have such conflicts. Bordering the South China Sea is China, Taiwan, Philippines, Indonesia, Brunei, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam. There countries with competing claims are China, Taiwan, Philippines, Indonesia, Brunei, Malaysia and Vietnam. Let us look at their naval assets for a moment.

China has the largest navy in the region. Their fleet (the People’s Liberation Army Navy) consists of:

2 new carriers – 54,500 to 58.600 tons (one commissioned in 2019)

36 Destroyers – 3,670 to 12,000 tons

52 Frigates – 2,000 to 4,200 tons

42 Corvettes – 1,400 tons

109 Missile boats – 170 to 520 tons

94 Submarine chasers

17 gunboats

20 mine countermeasures vessels – 400 to 1,200 tons

6 Amphibious transport docks (LPD) – 25,000 tons

1 Mobile Landing Platform

32 Landing Ship Tanks (LST) – 4,170 to 4,800 tons

31 Landing Ship medium (LSM) – 800 to 2,000 tons

7 Ballistic Missile Submarines (SSBN) – 8,000 to 11,500 tons

12 Nuclear attack Submarines (SSN) – 5,500 to 7,000 tons

55 Attack submarines (SSK) – 2,110 to 4,000 tons

The fleet also includes a 12 replenishment oilers and 232 various auxiliaries. The fleet is definitely growing and will have a third carrier around 2022.

The other countries have:

…………………….Taiwan……Philippines…..Indonesia….Brunei….Malaysia….Vietnam
Destroyers………..4
Frigates…………..22…………..(2)……………..8…………………………..6……………..9

Corvettes………….1…………….1…………….10…………………………..6……………14
Subs (SSK)………4……………..0……………..5……………………………2……………..6

ASW Corvettes…………………………………14

Patrol Vessel……………………11………………………………4…………..8

Patrol ships……….12…………..7……………37……………..9…………..8

Missile boats……..31………………………….15……………………………8

Mine sweepers….10………………………….12…………………………….4……………..8

Patrol boats……………………58…………..104……………23………….17……………54?

LSD…………………..1………….2……………..5

LST…………………..2………….5…………….12

LSM………………………………………………12…………………………………………..6?

Auxiliaries…………..5……….13………………42…………………………..14…………..12

 

The Taiwanese corvette is 567 tons, their patrol ships are 580 tons, their missile boats are 171 tonnes. The small Philippine fleet will get two frigates (2,600 tons) in 2020. Their corvette is 1,200 tons. Their offshore patrol vessels range from 712 to 3,250 tons. The patrol ships range from 140 to 357 tons, their patrol and missile boats are all less than 60 tons. The Indonesian ASW Corvettes 950 tons, East German built (we have a piano from East Germany).

There are some other countries on the periphery of this conflict, like Singapore, Thailand and Cambodia. We will address them in a subsequent post.

Looking for a publisher for Aces at Kursk

I do have a completed book of around 400 pages called Aces at Kursk: The Belgorod Offensive Air War.  It is a book about the actual air battles, as opposed to yet another picture book. The air battles at Kursk were larger than the Battle of Britain, yet there is not a single comprehensive book addressing it.

I have contacted a number of publishers and am still waiting for a response from some of them. A couple of them made a counter offer than I do picture book. But, it is probably time to go out and look for other publishers. If someone knows a publisher that this book is a particularly good fit for please let me know. If a publisher has a strong interest in this book, please contact me directly.

Thanks

Aces at Kursk – Chapters

Aces at Kursk – Summation

Accidently Downing Airliners

Iran has admitted that an Iranian air defense system downed the Ukrainian airliner yesterday. Sadly, this is becoming an all too common occurrence. The major incidents like this include:

Ukrainian Airlines, 8 January 2020 – It was shot down by an Iranian missile (picture shown above). 176 people killed.

Malaysian Flight MH-17, 17 July 2014 – Shot down by a Russian air defense missile. Russian claims the Ukrainians shot it down, but not too many people outside of Russia believe this. 296 people killed.

Siberia Airlines Flight 1812, 4 October 2001 — A Russian airliner shot down over the Black Sea by Ukrainian air defense missile while conducting training exercise. 78 people killed.

Iran Air Flight 655, 3 July 1988 — An Iranian airliner going from Iran to Saudi Arabia was shot down by a missile from the USS Vincennes. Even though it was an accident, many in Iran still claim it was deliberate. The Iranian newspaper Tehran Times recently published a letter asking Captain Rogers, the former CO of the Vincennes, to “confess.” 290 people killed.

Korea Air Lines Flight 007, 1 September 1983 — Shot down by the Soviet Union. In this case, the plane made a navigation error and wandered into Soviet air space. The intercepting Soviet pilots had sight of the plane and were still ordered to shot it down. 269 people killed, including a U.S. congressman.

There are a lot more incidents than those. Just to list some of them (I do not know if this list is exhaustive):

 

Date……………Incident…………Plane…..Locale……………Killed….Perpetrator

24 Aug 1938…..Kweilin Incident…DC-2……near Hong Kong…..14….Japan aircraft

14 June 1940….Kaleva…………..Ju-52……Baltic Sea……………9….USSR DB-3T

29 Oct 1940……Chungking………DC-2……China………………..9…..Japan aircraft

3 March 1942….KNILM PK-AFV…DC-3……Australia…………….4….Japan A6M Zero

1 June 1943……BOAC Flt 777…..DC-3……Bay of Biscay……..17….German Ju-88C-6

22 Oct 1943……AB Aero…………DC-3……Sweden…………….13…German Ju-88

 

23 July 1954……Cathy Pacific…….DC-4……Hainan Island……10……Chinese La-11

27 July 1955……El Al Flight 402….L-149…..Bulgaria……………58…..Bulgaria MIG-15

 

30 June 1962….Aeroflot Flt 902….Tu-104A..Russia…………….84…..USSR missile

21 Feb 1973……Libyan Flt 114……727………Sinai……………108…..Israeli F-4s

 

20 April 1978….Korean Flt 902…..707……..Russia……………….2…….USSR Su-15

3 Sep 1978……Rhodesia 825…Viscount….Rhodesia…………..48…….ZIPRA Strela-2

12 Feb 1978….Rhodesia 827….Viscount…Rhodesia…………..59…….ZIPRA Strela-2

27 June 1980…Itavia Flt 870…….DC-9…….Italy………………..81…….Missile?

8 Feb 1980…….Angola D2-TYC…Yak-40…Angola……………..19……..Zambian J-6

1 Sep 1983……Korean Flt 007…..747………USSR……………269…….USSR Su-15

 

24 Feb 1985….Polar 3……………Do-228…..West Sahara……..3………Polisario

4 Sep 1985……Bakhtar YA-BAM..An-26……Afghanistan……..52………SAM

11 June 1987…Bakhtar YA-BAL…An-26…..Afghanistan………53………SAM

14 Oct 1987……Zimex…………….L-100…..Angola……………..8………unknown

6 Nov 1987…….Air Malawi……….Skyvan….Mozambique…….10………?

3 July 1988…….Iran Air 655………A300……Persian Gulf……290……..U.S. RIM-66

 

8 Dec 1988……US AID………….DC-7………W. Sahara………5……Polisario

27 March 1992…………………….Yak-40…….Armenia………..0……Azerbaijan Su-25

21 Sep 1993….Transair…………Tu-134……..Georgia………..27…..Abkhazia Strela 2

22 Sep 1993….Transair…………Tu-154……..Georgia………108…..Abkhazia SAM

23 Sep 1993….Transair…………Tu-134A……Georgia………..1..Abkhazia BM-21 Grad

6 April 1994………………………..Falcon 50….Rwanda……….12……SAM

29 Sep 1998….Lionair 602…….An-24RV……Sri Lanka…….55..Tamil Tiger MANPADS

20 April 2001………………..Cessna A185E…Peru…………….2…Peru Cessna A-37B

4 Oct 2001……Siberian 1812…Tu-154………Black Sea…….78…….Ukrainian S-200

22 Nov 2003…DHL OO-DLL….A300………..Iraq……………….0…….SAM

9 Jan 2007………………………….An-26……….Iraq………….34…Islamic Army missile?

23 Mar 2007…TransAVIA……..Il-76…………Somalia………….11…..Hizbul Islam 9K38?

17 July 2014…Malaysia MH-17…777……….Ukraine………..298..Russian 9M38 SA-11

8 Jan 2020…..Ukraine Flt 752….737………..Iran…………….176….Iran SA-15

 

Now….between 1938-1983 (45 years) there were 16 incidents resulting on the loss of 804 lives. Of these, 12 were caused by hostile aircraft (some firing air-to-air missiles), three by surface-to-air missiles and one possibly by an errant air-to-air missile. Two of the airliners shot down by missiles were clearly accidental. From 1985 to 2020 (45 years) there were 20 incidents resulting in the loss of 1,223 lives. Of these, two were caused by aircraft and 14 caused by surface-to-air missiles.

 

Current Deployment of Patriot Missile Battalions

Our air defense artillery assets consists of Patriot, THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) and the SHORAD (Short Range Air Defense) battalions and batteries, among other elements.

A Patriot Missile Battalion consists of four or five Patriot Missile Batteries. A Patriot Missile Battery consists of four or six launchers, each with four missiles. The United States has 16 Patriot battalions. There is one battalion in Germany and three battalions in South Korea and I gather at least one battery in the Gulf (not sure which). I gather the most elements of the other 11 battalions are in the U.S. As of 2010 it was reported that the U.S. Army operates a total of 1,106 Patriot launchers (1,106/16 = 60 launchers per battalion). According to a count developed from multiple open sources, our air defense battalions and batteries are located at:

Baumholder, Germany

5th Battalion, 7th Air Defense Artillery Rgt (Patriots)

5th Battalion, 4th Air Defense Artillery Rgt (equipped with 36 Avenger SHORAD systems, with 36 in prepositioned storage).

 

Fort Bliss, Texas:

1st Battalion/43rd Air Defense Artillery Rgt (Patriot)

2nd Battalion/43rd Air Defense Artillery Rgt (Patriot)

3rd Battalion/43rd Air Defense Artillery Rgt (Patriot)

5th Battalion/52rd Air Defense Artillery Rgt (Patriot)

Battery A, 2nd Air Defense Artillery Rgt (THAAD)

Battery B, 2nd Air Defense Artillery Rgt (THAAD)

Battery E, 3rd Air Defense Artillery Rgt (THAAD)

Battery A, 4th Air Defense Artillery Rgt (THAAD)

 

Guam:

Battery A, 5th Air Defense Artillery Rgt (THAAD)

 

Fort Sill, Oklahoma

3rd Battalion, 2nd Air Defense Artillery Rgt (Patriot)

4th Battalion, 3rd Air Defense Artillery Rgt (Patriot)

5th Battalion, 5th Air Defense Artillery Rgt (Counter Rocket Artillery and Mortar)

2nd Battalion, 6th Air Defense Artillery Rgt (C-RAM, Sentinal, Stinger/Avenger)

3rd Battalion, 6th Air Defense Artillery Rgt (Patriot)

 

Fort Hood, Texas

4th Battalion, 5th Air Defense Artillery Rgt (Patriot)

1st Battalion, 44th Air Defense Artillery Rgt (Patriot)

1st Battalion, 62nd Air Defense Artillery Rgt (Patriot)

 

Fort Bragg, North Carolina

3rd Battalion, 4th Air Defense Artillery Rgt (Patriot/Avenger?)

1st Battalion, 7th Air Defense Artillery Rgt (Patriot)

 

Fort Campbell, Kentucky

2nd Battalion, 44th Air Defense Artillery Rgt  (Counter Rocket Artillery and Mortar)

 

Suwon Air Base, South Korea

6th Battalion, 52nd Air Defense Artillery Rgt (Patriot)

2nd Battalion, 1st Air Defense Artillery Rgt (Patriot)

D Battery, 2nd Air Defense Artillery Rgt (THADD)

1st Battalion, 1st Air Defense Artillery Rgt (Patriot)

 

Location unknown:

B Battery, 62nd Air Defense Artillery Rgt (THAAD) – activated 2016

 

This listing does not include National Guard units. It is also not definitive.

So Where are the Patriots?

We just got “shelled” by a dozen ballistic missiles fired from Iran to Iraq. These are the type of things that could be stopped by Patriot surface-to-air (SAM) missiles. Apparently we were given a heads up that the missiles were coming.

Not sure if we have any Patriot missile batteries deployed in Iraq. During the build up in May and June, we did deploy at least one Patriot battery to the Gulf. I assume they are still there defending facilities in the Gulf States. Do we have any Patriot missile batteries in Iraq?

Current U.S. and Allied Forces in the Gulf (mid-June 2019)

And:

Did The Patriot BMD Miss Again In Saudi Arabia?

One notes that the recent Iranian attack on the Saudi oil facilities on 14 September 2019 was not intercepted even though Saudi Arabia has six battalions of Patriot missiles and we also have at least one battery in the Gulf.

So did we have Patriots deployed in Iraq? If we did have them available, then did we decide not to use them?

 

 

P.S. (added at 1:40 9 Jan 2020): 3 Hours from Alert to Attacks

  1. We had a three hour alert
  2. There were no Patriot batteries deployed to protect the Ain Al-Asad base
  3. 16 missiles were fired at Ain Al-Asad base.

Size of Theater

Seeing how Iran and Iraq are back in the news (as I suspect so will be the Persian Gulf), let me just remind everyone the size of these “theaters.”

………………….Iraq………….Iran…………Persian Gulf……Texas……Lake Superior
Area (sq. km)…437,072……..1,648,195……251,000…………..696,241…….82,000

Population…….38,433,600…82,531,700……N/A……………..28,995,881…….N/A

GDP …………..$250 Billion…$458 Billion……N/A……………..$1,819 Billion….N/A

Texas is the second largest state in the U.S. (behind Alaska) and the second most populous state in the U.S. (behind California). Lake Superior is the largest fresh water lake in the world. Or to put it relative to Europe:

………………….Iraq……………Iran………..Persian Gulf…….France……..Baltic Sea
Area (sq. km)…437,072……….1,648,195…251,000……………551,695……..1,641,650

Population…….38,433,600……82,531,700….N/A………………64,834,000…….N/A

GDP ……………$250 Billion…$458 Billion….N/A………………$2,707 Billion….N/A

The area and population given is for “Metropolitan France,” meaning those parts of France that are in Europe.

U.S. Navy Compared to Russian Navy

An elevated port side view of the forward section of a Soviet Oscar Class SSGN nuclear-powered attack submarine. (Soviet Military Power, 1986)

One person commented on this blog about the danger posed by Russian submarines. Probably a good time to look at what the threat is.

I did start my career in the U.S. defense industry working with submarine sonars and spectrum analyzers. This was back in the bad old days, when there were hundreds of subs out there. In our new found more peaceful world, there are a lot less.

Russian has around 56 submarines, according to Wikipedia. How many of these are fully operational is not something I know. Of those, 11 of them are boomers or ballistic missile submarines. These are submarines that carry nuclear missiles and would not be part of any fleet-on-fleet battle. They also list 6 “special-purpose submarines,” two are old converted attack submarines. The group of subs that threaten our control of the seas are 8 cruise missile submarines (SSGN) and 15 nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs). There are also 22 smaller diesel-power attack submarines. This is 45 or less operational subs to threaten our carrier fleets.

The biggest danger from Russian fleet is their 8 cruise missile submarines. These really are a threat to our carriers.

The United States has around 66 submarines. Of those, 14 are boomers.

 

Comparative Ship Count:

…………………………U.S……Size…………………….Russia…….Size

Aircraft Carriers………11…….100,000-106,300………..1….,…….58,600 tonnes

LHA/LHD……………….9……..41,150-45,693 tons (these are carriers !!!)

Battlecruisers………….0……………………………………2…………28,000 tons

Cruisers……………….22……..9,800 tons………………..3………….12,500 tons

Destroyers…………….69……..8,315-9,800…………….11…………7,570 – 7,940 tons

LCS…………………….20…….3,104-3,900 (“Littoral Combat Ships”)

Frigates…………………0…………………………………..10………….1,930 – 5,400 tons

Large Corvettes………………………………………………6………….2,200 tons

Corvettes……………………………………………………..76………..500 – 1050 tons

 

LPD…………………….11……25,300 (“Landing Platform Dock”)

LSD…………………….12…..15,939-16,100 (“Landing Ship Dock”)

LST (Landing Ship Tank)…………………………………..20…………..4,080 – 6,600 tons

Special-purpose………7…..895-23,000…………………18…………..500 – 23,780

Patrol Ships…………………………………………………..2…………..1,500

MCM……………………11……….1,312 tons (mine countermeasures)

PC………………………13………….331 tons (coastal patrol)

 

Large SSBN…………………………………………………..1………….48,000 tons

SSBNs………………..14……..18,750 tonnes……………10…………13,700 – 24,000 tons

SSGN…………………..4………18,750 tonnes…………….8………….19,400 tons

SSN……………………48…….6,927-12,139 tonnes…….15…………7,250 – 13,800 tons

SSK…………………….0……………………………………..22…………2,700 – 3,950 tons

Special purpose subs…………………………………………6………….600 – 18,200 tons

 

I did not bother to list landing craft (Russia has 37 of 555 tons or less), patrol boats (Russian has 37 of 139 tons or less), mine countermeasure vessels (Russian has 6 of 1,100 tons or less), auxiliaries (cargo ships, ice breakers, logistic vessels, salvage vessels, tugs, tankers, oilers, transports, etc.), LCCs (amphibious command ships), submarine tenders, maritime prepositioning ships (T-AK), the USS Pueblo, and the USS Constitution.

What is a ton:

Short ton (U.S.) = 2,000 pounds

Metric Tonne = 2,204.6 pounds

Long ton (UK) = 2,240 pounds

 

Normandy 1944: German Military Organization, Combat Power and Organizational Effectiveness

Niklas Zetterling’s revised and update version of his excellent book Normandy 1944 is being re-issued. According to Amazon.com it will be available January 10, 2020. The link is here: Normandy 1944

It is set up to “look inside” so you can get some idea what is in there. It is of course, not another war story but a two part discussion on “Campaign Analysis” and “German Combat Formations.”

The “look inside” feature did not include an ability to search the text, so I was not able to check the really important stuff, like how many times Trevor Dupuy and I are mentioned in the book. I am graciously acknowledged in the introduction (as is Richard Anderson). Now, I did write an appendix for the original book. Always the gentleman, Niklas did ask my permission to remove it from this edition.

The book does include a discussion of the relative combat efficiency of the German forces compared to British and U.S. units, always a sensitive subject. We have never invested a lot of time in analyzing Normandy. Most of our analysis of this subject is from Italy 1943-44, Ardennes (Battle of the Bulge) 1944-45 and Kharkov and Kursk 1943 (and shown in War by Numbers). So this is a nice independent look at the subject using additional data from a different campaign by a different scholar.