Mystics & Statistics

A Friendly Fire Discussion

I have decided to turn one of my email discussions I was having with several people into a blog post. As they got into a discussion of friendly fire (I gather based upon one addressee’s personal experience), I ended up making the following statement:

Friendly fire (FF):

1. The original figure that came out of WWII was 2% of the casualties were due to friendly fire (Beebe and Debakey?).

2. This was probably low.

3. Since WWII there has been no definitive studies on FF casualties that I am aware of.

4. It was much higher than 2% in the 1991 Gulf War.

5. In the 1990s Chuck Hawkins (Vietnam company commander) and Gene Visco (DUSA OR) did some preliminary work looking at FF casualties. They were attempting to get a contract to do an actual proper survey of the subject. That did not happen.

6. By default, the preliminary work by Hawkins and Visco (both deceased) is the only significant work on FF casualties that has been done since WWII. I may have a copy somewhere in my files. Not sure anything has been published or is on the internet. I think they presented their findings at ISMOR.

Dermot, you are welcome to discuss what the UK has done.


Dermot Rooney, the author of Slog or Swan (see: Slog or Swan – The Dupuy Institute) came back with the following response:

Here’s the Slog or Swan quote:

Meanwhile, fragile radio communications separated infantry and artillery, contributing to a high rate of fratricide. A Canadian study conducted during Veritable put the number of Allied casualties to friendly artillery at between seven and 21 percent of the total. The actions examined for the current assessment support splitting the difference at around 15 percent.11 This figure is alarmingly close to the 19 percent attributed to German small arms, and considerably greater than the six percent benchmark for friendly fire casualties in a First World War barrage. Artillery fratricide was also a major factor in five of the failed attacks in the current assessment and, considering the tendency to underreport such events, was likely a factor in as many more. The high chance of fratricide very probably undermined the essential trust between infantryman and gunner, the coordination of fire and assault, and therefore the value of suppression.12

 

[11] This is another of those tantalising glimpses mentioned earlier. The figures are the extremes presented in Brigadier E. C. Plow’s study of munition fragments removed from casualties and could only be found in Appendix L of Copp’s Cinderella Army. Copp and Buckley opt for ‘as high as 19 percent’. Copp, Cinderella Army, pp.291, 338–340; Buckley, Monty’s Men, p.272.

[12] Contrary to the mines and mud narrative, the Canadian wounds study also found 4 percent of casualties were caused by the combination of mines and grenades, way behind German artillery, German small arms, and Allied artillery. J. B. Coates and J. C. Beyer (eds), Wound Ballistics in World War II: Supplemented by experiences in the Korean War (Washington: Office of the Surgeon General, 1962) has mines accounting for 0 to 10 percent of total casualties depending on the sampling method. The battle descriptions for this assessment suggest the effect of mines on advance rates was marginal and appears no greater than in other operations.


If anyone has a copy of any presentations made or write-ups done by Charles Hawkins or Gene Visco on fratricide, please forward them to me (LawrenceTDI@aol.com).

I do note that the links to Cornwallis Group, founded in 1996 by Gene Visco, is no longer connected to the ISMOR site. It does seem like we are losing knowledge. The earliest ISMOR link I can find is ISMOR 39 (with the Eugene Visco prize): ISMOR – ISMOR 39 | ORS. There were links to earlier ISMOR conferences and papers, and links in ISMOR to the Cornwallis Group, but I cannot find these. 

Links to Stefan Korshak’s blog, co-author of The Siege of Mariupol

My co-author Stefan Korshak does regularly post about the war in Ukraine. He has three links to his weekly blog from Kyiv about the Russo-Ukraine War:

https://www.facebook.com/stefan.korshak
https://stefankorshak.substack.com
https://medium.com/@Stefan.Korshak

Stefan is currently located in Kyiv. Originally from Texas, officer in the U.S. Army in the 1980s, Yale grad, served as an OSCE ceasefire observer in Mariupol from 2014-2022, and now reports for the Kyiv Post. Currently working with me on our second book, The Battle for the Donbas

Europe’s Choice: Military and Economic Scenarios for the War in Ukraine

This paper just released by CORISK and the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI) is definitely worth taking a look at.

English language version: 2025 Europes choice_FINAL_251125_174147

There are eight references to Dupuy’s work and one to War by Numbers, so it definitely holds our interest. The chapters in the report are:

  1. Military Scenarios and their costs
  2. Introduction
  3. Political analysis
  4. The Scenario
  5. Humanitarian analysis
  6. Military analysis
  7. Economic analysis
  8. Costs and conclusions
  9. Sources
  10. Appendix A – Extended model for calculating combat power
  11. Appendix B – Method for calculating average loss of Russian material

Definitely take a look at this. 

 

P.S. Official link: Publikasjoner

And in Norwegian: To scenarier for krigen i Ukraina: Hva betyr de for Europa – og hva vil det koste? | NUPI

The Siege of Mariupol is Available in the UK

My latest book, The Siege of Mariupol, co-authored by Stefan Korshak, is now available in the UK. The Amazon.com (UK) link is here: The Siege of Mariupol: The Azovstal Steel Plant and Ukraine’s Battle for Survival : Christopher A Lawrence, Stefan Korshak: Amazon.co.uk: Books

It is listed as “Temporarily out of stock” but I gather you can find it at your local UK bookstore. 

It can also be ordered directly from the publisher: Pen and Sword Books: The Siege of Mariupol – Hardback

The title will be released in the U.S. on January 20, 2026. The Amazon.com link is here: The Siege of Mariupol: The Azovstal Steel Plant and Ukraine’s Battle for Survival: Lawrence, Christopher A, Korshak, Stefan: 9781399034203: Amazon.com: Books

I can talk a lot about this book, but for today, I will let the book speak for itself.

Presentation on the New Science of Causality and Evidence on Friday, 21 November, 300 PM EST

Dr. Douglas Samuelson will be giving a presentation on the New Science of Causality and Evidence at George Mason on this Friday, 21 November, 3oo PM (EST). It is also available on Zoom. This is an extension of the presentation he gave at the Fourth HAAC  (see: HAAC 2025: Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) – The Dupuy Institute). We have not posted up the videos yet from that conference.

Anyhow, the complete announcement is below:

Speaker: Doug Samuelson, D.Sc., InfoLogix and The Dupuy Institute
 
Title: The New Science of Causality and Evidence, and SIPMath
 
Abstract: We have seen a divergence between the science of association, generally expressed in statistics, and the probative efforts used in litigation. Law practice has expanded into more use of statistics and probability, but law and probability have remained largely out of touch with each other in research. Bringing more probabilistic insights into explorations of causality and evidence is even more important now because of the increasing use of AI, agent-based simulation, and complex systems analysis, all of which defy most probability-centric methods of validation. We note also that ALL observations are somewhat uncertain, because observations take place through media (photons, electron beams, whatever) that are inherently uncertain. We need to find rigorous ways to express causality, including partial and uncertain causation, using evidence which falls short of certainty.  Inference based on Stochastic Information Packets, already used with considerable success in risk analysis, provides a promising way forward.
 
Location: Center on Social Complexity Suite (3rd floor, Research Hall) and online (use Zoom link below)
 
**************************************************************************
You are invited to a scheduled Zoom meeting.
 
Topic: CSS 898/CSI 899 – Friday CDS seminar
Date and time: Nov 21, 2025 03:00 PM Eastern Time (US and Canada) and every week on Friday
 
Please download and import the following iCalendar (.ics) files to your calendar system.
 
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Meeting ID: 987 4541 8358
Passcode: 694458
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Fifth HAAC is Scheduled for 20 – 22 October 2026

The Fifth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) is schedule for 20-22 October 2026 in Tysons Corner, VA. Same locate, same format as the previous HAACs.

The schedule for the previous (Fourth) HAAC is here: HAAC 2025: Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) – The Dupuy Institute

The developing schedule for the Fifth HAAC is here: HAAC 2026: Fifth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) – The Dupuy Institute

The Eventbrite listing for the Fifth HAAC is here: Fifth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) Tickets, Tue, Oct 20, 2026 at 8:00 AM | Eventbrite

Feel free to email me at LawrenceTDI@aol.com if you want to schedule a presentation.

 

Fifth Presentation on Antietam tonight, 10 November via Zoom at 700 PM

Fifth presentation on Antietam tonight, 10 November via Zoom at 7:00 PM (EST). It is the fifth in a series of seven or more presentations by Dr. James Slaughter on the Maryland Campaign of 1862. It addresses the actual fighting on September 17, 1862.

The current schedule is:

5. The Afternoon and Evening September 17, 1862 – `Monday, 700 PM, 10 November:
 
6. The Aftermath September 18 to 20 1862 – Monday, 700 PM, 24 November:
 
7. Reassessing the Battle – Monday, 700 PM, 8 December: 

 

The Fourth HAAC is done and Dr. Slaughter conducted a tour of the battlefield on 24 October.  The Fifth HAAC will probably be 20-22 October 2026 and the battlefield tour will be Fredericksburg.

NATO’s misconception of Soviet Military Strategy

At the 2024 HAAC, Walker Gargagliano gave a presentation on “NATO’s Misconception of Critique of Western Wargames of NATO-WP Conflict.” This has now been turned into a paper that was published by the Journal of Strategic Studies. It is behind a paywall, but many of those who have access to a college library can probably take a look at it. The article is here: A bolt from the blue: NATO’s misconception of Soviet military strategy: Journal of Strategic Studies: Vol 0, No 0 – Get Access

The abstract reads:

Throughout the Cold War, both NATO policymakers and the general public expressed a fear of a surprise Soviet attack, shaping their military stance, funding, and procurements in Europe to counter this eventuality. However, the type of war the Soviet Armed Forces planned to wage with the West was of a vastly different character than often feared. The concept of undertaking a strategic surprise attack in Europe was completely alien to Soviet theory, which rather conceptualized war as an extended affair requiring an extended mobilization process in a war which would be fought with total, rather than limited, objectives.

Leavenworth Master’s Thesis on “Forecasting Approaches in Operations Desert Sheild and Desert Storm

In 2020 Major Aaron F. Anderson, a student at the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College in Fort Leavenworth Kansas, published a master’s thesis called “Forecasting Approaches in Operations Desert Sheild and Desert Storm.” It was just sent to me.  I was not aware of it even though the author quoted my book War by Numbers extensively. It is referenced 19 times in the paper, so of course, I have a bias towards it.  Anyhow a link to the 45-page paper is here: Forecasting Approaches in Operations Desert Shield and Desert Storm

Paper’s abstract: