Mystics & Statistics

Antietam presentations for Wednesday rescheduled to Mondays

Sorry for the schedule change, but all of the presentations on Antietam and the Maryland Campaign of 1862 have been rescheduled to Mondays.

The new schedule is:

2. The Forgotten Campaign – the origin and development of American Economic Warfare in WWII (1939-41) – Wednesday, 700 PM, 24 September
 
3. The Armies on September 16, 1862 – Monday, 700 PM, 29 September:
 
4. The Morning Battle September 17, 1862 – Monday, 700 PM, 13 October:
 
The Fourth HAAC is 21-23 October and Dr. Slaughter will be conducting a tour of the battlefield on 24 October (see below).
 
5. The Afternoon and Evening September 17, 1862 – `Monday, 700 PM, 27 October:
 
6. The Aftermath September 18 to 20 1862 – Monday, 700 PM, 10 November:
 
7. Reassessing the Battle – Monday, 700 PM, 24 November: 

 

Fourth HAAC:

The Fourth HAAC, 21 – 23 October. See July’s Schedule for the Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) 21 – 23 October 2025 – The Dupuy Institute and Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) Tickets, Tue, Oct 21, 2025 at 9:00 AM | Eventbrite.

We do offer a guided tour of the Antietam battlefield at the end of the HAAC conference on Friday October 24. It will also be conducted by Dr. James Slaughter. 

 

P.S. Here are the first two presentations on Antietam and the Maryland Campaign of 1862 done by Dr. James F. Slaughter III.

1. Understanding Antietam: Part 1: The Strategic Situation in Late Summer 1862: Antietam and the Maryland Campaign of 1862 (part 1)

2.  Action Prior to Antietam: South Mountain and Harper’s Ferry: Antietam and the Maryland Campaign of 1862 (part 2)

 

Battle of Baquba 2007 Presentation on Wednesday, 7 PM EST via Zoom

Presentation on the Battle of Baquba 2007 by one of the participants, Dr. R. Ben Richards (Major, USA, ret.) on Wednesday, 10 September, 7 PM EST.

1.  The Counter-Insurgency Insurgency (Battle of Baquba 2007) – 10 September:

https://us06web.zoom.us/j/88289615788?pwd=xcr0NqPr88g4eUtWLSW5RwD5sd6Lem.1

 

Other upcoming presentations and meetings:

3. The Armies on September 16, 1862 – 17 September:

 
2. The Forgotten Campaign – the origin and development of American Economic Warfare in WWIII (1939-41) – 24 September
4. The Morning Battle September 17, 1862 – 1 October:
 
5. The Afternoon and Evening September 17, 1862 – `15 October:
 
The Fourth HAAC is 21-23 October and Dr. Slaughter will be conducting a tour of the battlefield on 24 October (see below).
 
6. The Aftermath September 18 to 20 1862 – 29 October:
 
7. Reassessing the Battle – 12 November: 

 

Fourth HAAC:

The Fourth HAAC, 21 – 23 October. See July’s Schedule for the Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) 21 – 23 October 2025 – The Dupuy Institute and Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) Tickets, Tue, Oct 21, 2025 at 9:00 AM | Eventbrite.

We do offer a guided tour of the Antietam battlefield at the end of the HAAC conference on Friday October 24. It will also be conducted by Dr. James Slaughter. 

 

P.S. Here are the first two presentations on Antietam and the Maryland Campaign of 1862 done by Dr. James F. Slaughter III.

1. Understanding Antietam: Part 1: The Strategic Situation in Late Summer 1862: Antietam and the Maryland Campaign of 1862 (part 1)

2.  Action Prior to Antietam: South Mountain and Harper’s Ferry: Antietam and the Maryland Campaign of 1862 (part 2)

 

P.P.S. Story behind the book cover: The Book Cover for America’s Modern Wars – The Dupuy Institute

On Amazon.com

The Book Cover for America’s Modern Wars

America’s Modern Wars, Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam is a theoretical work on the nature of insurgencies and counterinsurgencies. It was originally going to be called Understanding Insurgencies but at the publisher’s request we changed the title. I added the “Understanding” part. Needless to say, theoretical works rarely top the Times Best Seller List.

The publisher (Casemate) also chose the cover art. I asked them where it was from, and they only thing they could tell me as that it was from Iraq. But, it was nice and yellow and seemed to stand out and what else do you put on the cover of a theoretical work? It did seem to stand out in the bookstore shelves.

Well, last month, the commanding officer of the two soldiers in that picture contacted me and told me where it came from. To copy parts from his emails (with his permission, of course):

I was personally present when that photo was taken in March 2007 in Buhriz, Iraq (a suburb of provincial capital city Baqubah). The photo was taken several hours into a day-long battle with al Qaeda insurgents.

The photo was taken in March 2007 in the city of Buhriz which is just south and adjacent to Baqubah along the Diyala River about 35 miles northeast of Baghdad. The two soldiers — SSG Derek Grimes and SPC Joshua Emmett– were Cav Scouts in the Stryker-equipped Bronco Troop, 1-14 CAV, which was part of the Cav Squadron of 3-2 SBCT – the Army’s first Stryker Brigade. I was the Troop commander. At the time the Troop was attached to 5-20 Infantry, a Stryker infantry battalion. We had just moved up to Baqubah from Baghdad after participating in the first official surge operations there.
It was our first day there. My troop was assigned the city of Buhriz as our AO and part of the troop had stumpled into a complex ambush in a well-prepared kill zone featuring IEDs, emplaced obstacles, pre-registered indirect fire (mortars), RPG volley fire, heavy machine guns, etc. The ambush devolved into a crawling 15-hour fire fight with my troop of 17 strykers reinforced with a platoon of Bradleys, a tank platoon, a engineer platoon for IED route clearance and ultimately five AH-64 Air Weapon teams that rotated through to empty their loads of thermabaric hellfire missiles. The al Qaeda fighters had laid real or decoy IEDs (mostly triple-stacked 152mm artillery shells with control wire detonators) approximately every 30 meters along the single available road.
After al Qaeda had been evicted from Ramadi at the end of 2006 they moved to Baqubah and declared the city the capital of their Islamic Caliphate. That part of Diyala was under 3rd Bde 1 Cavalry Division, but they lacked the manpower to secure the city and were being heavily attritted. The Mech Infantry Team that I took over Buhriz from lost 19 Abrams and Bradleys in their first 4 months there and over 10 percent of their company KIA. Buhriz, itself had never been under US control. It was a Baathist retirement community before al Qaeda had moved in and laid siege to a local Iraqi Army base which they took over an literally leveled after al Qaeda had defeated a US battalion-level armored counterattack that failed to penetrate into the town and relieve the siege. If Baqubah was the capital of al Qaeda in Iraq, Buhriz was the capital of al Qaeda in Baqubah. When we arrived, 3-1 CAV reported over 4,500 “active fighters” for al Qaeda in the city.
Within a few weeks, Bronco Troop became ground zero for what later became called the Sunni Awakening. Michael Gordon partly recounts the story of how this happened and how it spread through Iraq in his book Endgame. He actually embedded with my troop for a few days during the Summer. In early April we were able to form an alliance with the local population, evict al Qaeda and establish a secure fortified enclave. Because of the reputational importance of Buhriz and the threat that if Buhriz succeeded in defying al Qaeda, active opposition would spread, al Qaeda was compelled to launch a series of large-scale conventional attacks to attempt to retake the town. This of course played to our strengths, and we repulsed them each time with heavy losses to them and minimal losses to us. We had established our own intelligence network that had infiltrated al Qaeda and we were able to get enemy BDA within 48 hours of each engagement. A former Iraqi military intelligence officer and military academy graduate who ran the network reported a total loss to al Qaeda over six months of fighting over Buhriz at around 1,200 fighters KIA. Buhriz became the meat-grinder that destroyed al Qaedas fighting power and reputation in Iraq. Our local Iraqi allies spread the “Awakening” through their networks and as we demonstrated the success of our model and succeeded defeating al Qaeda and securing the people of Buhriz (and delivered essential services), the movement quickly spread throughout the Sunni and moderate Shia areas of Iraq. And yes, as you suspected in your book, their were former insurgents who had fought US soldiers in earlier battles among the Awakening membership and leadership.
Ben Richards (Major, USA, ret.) was seriously wounded in Iraq in a targeted attempt to kill him.  He has since gotten a PhD and will be giving two virtual presentations, the first on this coming Wednesday, at 7:00 PM EST via zoom.

1.  The Counter-Insurgency Insurgency (Battle of Baquba 2007) – 10 September:

https://us06web.zoom.us/j/88289615788?pwd=xcr0NqPr88g4eUtWLSW5RwD5sd6Lem.1

and…

2. The Forgotten Campaign – the origin and development of American Economic Warfare in WWIII (1939-41)

https://us06web.zoom.us/j/85102581565?pwd=yyrcjsdWLGLtMjjFOyFXxLuDGK6VaV.1

He will also be attending the Fourth HAAC and giving three presentations there:

3. The Fourth HAAC, 21 – 23 October. See July’s Schedule for the Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) 21 – 23 October 2025 – The Dupuy Institute and Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) Tickets, Tue, Oct 21, 2025 at 9:00 AM | Eventbrite.

I do want to thank Casemate for their choice of photographs, as it lead, a decade later, to an introduction to soldier-scholar Ben Richards.

 

 

P.S. Hard copies of the book are for sale via The Dupuy Institute:  Books – The Dupuy Institute

On Amazon.com

The first two presentations on Antietam and the Maryland Campaign of 1862

Here are the first two presentations on Antietam and the Maryland Campaign of 1862 done by Dr. James F. Slaughter III.

1. Understanding Antietam: Part 1: The Strategic Situation in Late Summer 1862: Antietam and the Maryland Campaign of 1862 (part 1)

2.  Action Prior to Antietam: South Mountain and Harper’s Ferry: Antietam and the Maryland Campaign of 1862 (part 2)

The third presentation will be on 17 September, Wednesday, 7 PM via Zoom. The schedule is:

3. The Armies on September 16, 1862 – 17 September:
 
4. The Morning Battle September 17, 1862 – 1 October:
 
5. The Afternoon and Evening September 17, 1862 – `15 October:
 
The Fourth HAAC is 21-23 October and Dr. Slaughter will be conducting a tour of the battlefield on 24 October (see below).
 
6. The Aftermath September 18 to 20 1862 – 29 October:
 
7. Reassessing the Battle – 12 November: 

Other upcoming presentations and meetings:

We have two presentations schedule to be given by Dr. R. Ben Richards (Major, USA, ret.) on 10 and 24 September. They are:

1.  The Counter-Insurgency Insurgency (Battle of Baquba 2007) – 10 September:

https://us06web.zoom.us/j/88289615788?pwd=xcr0NqPr88g4eUtWLSW5RwD5sd6Lem.1

2. The Forgotten Campaign – the origin and development of American Economic Warfare in WWIII (1939-41)

https://us06web.zoom.us/j/85102581565?pwd=yyrcjsdWLGLtMjjFOyFXxLuDGK6VaV.1

3. The Fourth HAAC, 21 – 23 October. See July’s Schedule for the Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) 21 – 23 October 2025 – The Dupuy Institute and Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) Tickets, Tue, Oct 21, 2025 at 9:00 AM | Eventbrite.

We do offer a guided tour of the Antietam battlefield at the end of the HAAC conference on Friday October 24. It will also be conducted by Dr. James Slaughter. 

Presentation for this Wednesday is re-scheduled

There is no presentation this Wednesday evening (3 September). It has been rescheduled. The next presentation is on the Wednesday after, on 10 September: The Counter-Insurgency Insurgency (Battle of Baquba 2007) by Dr. R. Ben Richards (Major, USA, ret.).

The third presentation on Antietam and the Maryland Campaign of 1862 will be on 17 September.

The last posted schedule is here: Second Presentation on Antietam and the Maryland Campaign of 1862 is on Wednesday (Aug. 20) at 7:00 PM – The Dupuy Institute.

 

Second Presentation on Antietam and the Maryland Campaign of 1862 is on Wednesday (Aug. 20) at 7:00 PM

The second of seven public presentations on the Battle of Antietam and the Maryland Campaign of 1862 is Wednesday night (Aug. 20) at 7:00 PM (EST) on Zoom. They will be on zoom on every other Wednesday at 7:00 PM EST. They are by Dr. James Slaughter and each presentation is around 45 minutes and then the floor will then be opened to questions and discussion. We will be recording the presentations and posting them to our YouTube channel. We have not posted up the first presentation yet.

The schedule is (with zoom links):

2. Lee’s Invasion, South Mountain, Harper’s Ferry, and McClellan’s Response – 20 August:
 
3. The Armies on September 16, 1862 – 3 September:
 
4. The Morning Battle September 17, 1862 – 17 September:
 
5. The Afternoon and Evening September 17, 1862 – 1 October:
 
6. The Aftermath September 18 to 20 1862 – 15 October:
 
The Fourth HAAC is 21-23 October and Dr. Slaughter will be conducting a tour of the battlefield on 24 October (see below).
 

Other upcoming presentations and meetings:

We have two presentations schedule to be given by Dr. R. Ben Richards (Major, USA, ret.) on 10 and 24 September. They are:

1.  The Counter-Insurgency Insurgency (Battle of Baquba 2007) – 10 September:

https://us06web.zoom.us/j/88289615788?pwd=xcr0NqPr88g4eUtWLSW5RwD5sd6Lem.1

2. The Forgotten Campaign – the origin and development of American Economic Warfare in WWIII (1939-41)

https://us06web.zoom.us/j/85102581565?pwd=yyrcjsdWLGLtMjjFOyFXxLuDGK6VaV.1

3. The Fourth HAAC, 21 – 23 October. See July’s Schedule for the Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) 21 – 23 October 2025 – The Dupuy Institute and Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) Tickets, Tue, Oct 21, 2025 at 9:00 AM | Eventbrite.

We do offer a guided tour of the Antietam battlefield at the end of the HAAC conference on Friday October 24. It will also be conducted by Dr. James Slaughter. 

First presentation on Antietam and the Maryland Campaign of 1862 is tomorrow (Aug. 6) at 7:00 PM

The first of seven public presentations on the Battle of Antietam and the Maryland Campaign of 1862 is tomorrow night (Aug. 6) at 7:00 PM (EST) on Zoom. They will be on zoom on every other Wednesday at 7:00 PM EST starting 6 August. They are by Dr. James Slaughter and each presentation is around 45 minutes and then the floor will then be opened to questions and discussion. We will be recording the presentations and posting them to our YouTube channel.

The schedule is (with zoom links):

1. The Strategic and Political Situation in Late Summer 1862 – 6 August:
  
2. Lee’s Invasion, South Mountain, Harper’s Ferry, and McClellan’s Response – 20 August:
 
3. The Armies on September 16, 1862 – 3 September:
 
4. The Morning Battle September 17, 1862 – 17 September:
 
5. The Afternoon and Evening September 17, 1862 – 1 October:
 
6. The Aftermath September 18 to 20 1862 – 15 October:
 
The Fourth HAAC is 21-23 October and Dr. Slaughter will be conducting a tour of the battlefield on 24 October (see below).
 

 

Other upcoming presentations and meetings:

The Fourth HAAC, 21 – 23 October. See July’s Schedule for the Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) 21 – 23 October 2025 – The Dupuy Institute and Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) Tickets, Tue, Oct 21, 2025 at 9:00 AM | Eventbrite.

We do offer a guided tour of the Antietam battlefield at the end of the HAAC conference on Friday October 24. It will also be conducted by Dr. James Slaughter. 

Battle of Antietam by Thure de Thulstrup, 1887. This shows the charge of the Iron Brigade near the Dunker Church on the morning of September 17, 1862.

Yahoo AI and order of battle for operations near Chernihiv in 2022

Well, having some more problems with AI. I was trying to confirm for once and for all whether any elements of the Russian 11th Guards Air Assault Brigade was near Chernihiv in first six weeks of the Russo-Ukrainian War? My suspicion is that it was not although some Wikipedia-type orders of battle put it there.

I did ask Yahoo AI and it said:

———

The 11th Guards Air Assault Brigade was indeed active near Chernihiv in 2022 during the early stages of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Operational Context

  • The brigade is part of the Russian Airborne Forces and was involved in operations aimed at capturing key Ukrainian cities.
  • Chernihiv, located in northern Ukraine, was a significant target due to its strategic location.

Military Engagement

  • Reports indicate that the brigade participated in assaults and faced resistance from Ukrainian forces.
  • The fighting around Chernihiv was intense, with Ukrainian defenders successfully repelling several attacks.

Current Status

  • As of late 2022, the situation in the region evolved, with ongoing military engagements and shifting front lines.

This information is based on various military analyses and reports from the conflict.


Unfortunately, it did not give the actual sources they used. I gather anything incorrectly entered into Wikipedia results in AI responses that could be in error. I went to their Yahoo Chat and they gave three sources: 1) Siege of Chernihiv | Military Wiki | Fandom, 2) 6 months of war: How Russia got derailed in Ukraine and 3) Russian Authorities Detain, Threaten Soldiers Refusing to Fight in Ukraine – The Moscow Times.

I am still not convinced that AI is operating above the level of a bright high school student.

 

Khrushchev Quote and AI

Nikita Khrushchev is one of more interesting people of the cold war era. I found a quote of his that I wanted to use in one of my books on the current Russo-Ukranian war. The quote is “The more bombers, the less room for doves of peace.”

Great quote, it is all over the internet, but none of the references actually said when and where it was said. I am jaded enough that I never use a quote that I cannot find the source for. I could not find a source of this one.

So, not being a complete dinosaur, I decided to use Yahoo.com little AI function (chat.yahoo.com). It ended up stating:

Nikita Khrushchev famously stated, “The more bombers, the less room for doves of peace,” during a speech at the United Nations General Assembly on September 18, 1959. This quote reflects his critique of the arms race and the paradox of military escalation during the Cold War, emphasizing that an increase in military power diminishes the space for peaceful resolutions and diplomacy 1.

If you have more questions about Khrushchev or related topics, feel free to ask! 😊

Sources:

 

Problem solved. AI gave me date and location. But, I checked the footnote and it did not say that. So then I checked speech that he gave there: On Peaceful Co-Existence: A Collection : Хрущев, Никита Сергеевич, 1894-1971 : Free Download, Borrow, and Streaming : Internet Archive

On page 100 is the complete transcript of the speech he gave at the UN on September 18, 1959. It has one reference to bombers, no references to doves. It clearly was not stated in this speech.

Now, it does appear that the Yahoo AI just made up an answer. A convincing invention, and one that could have caught me out if I did not diligently crosschecked.

So, I went and searched the newspapers.com file. The Tampa Tribune in 1995 gave me the attribution “Nikita Khrushchev, speech on Moscow radio, March 14, 1958.  Aug 06, 1995, page 8 – The Tampa Tribune at Newspapers.com.

Oddly enough that was the only two papers in the newspapers.com database that repeated this quote. The Tucson Citizen in 2002 also used the quote, attributing it to “Nikita S. Khruschev, Soviet premier, 1958”.  Dec 28, 2002, page 19 – Tucson Citizen at Newspapers.com. So at least they agree on the year, even if they spell his name differently. 

Should I stop looking? I would like to find the original source or an earlier source for this quote. Not sure where to look next.

 

P.S. Just to note, Khrushchev was

1938-1947: First Secretary, Kiev City Committee

1938-1947: First Secretary, Kiev Regional Committee

1944-1947: Chairman, Ukrainian Council of Ministers

And in 1954 he was the person who transferred Sevastopol and Crimea to Ukraine. 

He, as always, has a very checkered history. This is well illustrated by his grave, done at his family’s request by a sculptor he had suppressed: Ernst Neizvestny – Wikipedia.

July’s Schedule for the Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) 21 – 23 October 2025

The Fourth HAAC is scheduled for 21-23 October 2025. We currently have 50 presentations scheduled (and one group discussions). We are, of course, looking for more quality presentations. The current schedule is:

 

Schedule: Pike & Gallows Conference Center
Revised 11 September 2025

Day 1: Analysis of Conventional Combat

0900 – 0930 Introductory remarks – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

0930 – 1030 Studying Combat: The “Base of Sand” Problem – Dr. Shawn R. Woodford

1030 – 1130   Slouching Towards Wabash: The Withering of Historical Analysis in the American Profession of Arms – Ivan Torres (Jomini of the West, Major, U.S. Army, ret.)

1130 – 1230   History’s Lessons on Technological Surprise in War – Dr. Alexander Kott 

1230 – 1400 Lunch

1400 – 1500   The History of TND’s models and theories – Dr. Shawn R. Woodford

1500 – 1600   Temporal and Geographic Patterns of Fatal Casualty Rates in WWI and WWII – Sasho Todorov, esquire

1600 – 1700   Ground Combat Database (GCD) – Dr. Ben Connable (Battle Research Group)

1700 – 1800   Difficulties in Measuring Morale and Effectiveness – Dr. Dermot Rooney (Wapentakes) – virtual

Evening (1900): Group Dinner – Rangos

Day 2: Analysis of Unconventional Warfare

0900 – 1000    Iraq, Data, Hypotheses and Afghanistan (old) – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

1000 – 1100    Reserved for Dr. David Cuberes

1100 – 1200    The Truth About Little Big Horn Finally Comes Out – Dr. Robert Helmbold

1200 – 1300   Lunch

1300 – 1400   1916 Easter Rising – Robert A. Mosher

1400 – 1500   The Counter-Insurgency Insurgency – An inside view of one of OIF’s most decisive battles – Dr. R. Ben Richards (Major, USA, ret.) – part 1

1500 – 1600  The Counter-Insurgency Insurgency – An inside view of one of OIF’s most decisive battles – Dr. R. Ben Richards (Major, USA, ret.) – part 2

1600 – 1700  Have We Figured Out How to Defeat IEDs? – Matt Matters (Col., USA, ret)

1700 – 1800   Price of Paradise – Dr. Iain Overton (AOAV) – virtual

Evening (1900): Group Dinner – BJs

Day 3: Other Analysis of Warfare

0900 – 1000   Summoning the specter of “Beweglichkeit”: A critical analysis of the U.S. Army’s new FM 3-0 Operations and observed Ukrainian battlefield trends – Ivan Torres (Jomini of the West, Major, U.S. Army, ret.)

1000 – 1100   The Forgotten Campaign – the origin and development of American Economic Warfare in World War II (1939-1941) – Dr. R. Ben Richards (Major, USA, ret.) 

1100 – 1200   Results from the Taiwan Analytical Efforts – Alexandru Filip

1200 – 1300 Lunch

1300 – 1400   The Hermann Goeing Division in North Africa, Sicily and Salerno 1942-1943 and Measuring Combat Effectiveness – Dr. James Slaughter

1400 – 1500   Syrskyi’s Gambit: A Critical Analysis of Ukraine’s Kursk Offensive – Ivan Torres (Jomini of the West, Major, U.S. Army, ret.)

1500 – 1600   Battle of Irpin River – Dr. Ben Connable (Battle Research Group)

1600 – 1700   Group Discussion: Russo-Ukrainian War

1700 – 1715    Closing Remarks – Jeffrey Harley, PhD (Rear Admiral, USN, ret.)

1715 – 1800    Revitalization of TDI – Joe Follansbee (Col., USA, ret.) 

Evening: Happy hour – Rangos

 

Schedule: Einstein Conference Room

Day 1: Naval Warfare Analysis

0930 – 1030   Naval Theory and War Causation – Alexandru Filip

1030 – 1130  Modeling ATC Amphibious Landings on Taiwan – Dr. Julian Spencer-Churchill

1130 – 1230   Modeling the Invasion of Taiwan – Chip Sayers

1230-1400   Lunch

1400 – 1500    A Review of the CSIS gaming effort – Walker Gargagliano

1500 – 1600   Taipei Has Fallen!: Wargaming the Invasion of Taiwan – Clinton Rielly – virtual

1600 – 1700   Preliminaries to PRC Operations – Walker Gargagliano   

1700 – 1800 Temporal and Geographic Patterns of Fatal Casualty Rates in WWI and WWII (part 2 or overflow presentation) – Sasho Todorov, esquire

Day 2: Analysis of Conventional Combat

0900 – 1000   The Manoeuvre Warfare Fraud – William F. Owen – virtual?

1000 – 1100    Salvation Only in Arms: A Critical Historical Analysis of Operational Maneuver during the 1814 Campaign in France – Ivan Torres (Jomini of the West, Major, U.S. Army, ret.)

1100 – 1200   The Tactical Psychology of Armoured Flamethrowers (TBC) – Dr. Dermot Rooney (Wapentakes) – virtual

1200 – 1300 Lunch

1300 – 1400   Quantifying Mahan’s Hypotheses – Dr. Julian Spencer Churchill

1400 – 1500   Twenty-First Century and Great Power Competition – Matt Matters (Col., USA, ret).

1500 – 1600   Systems Analysis and Strategy – Alexandru Filip

1600 – 1700   The New Science of Evidence and Causality – Dr. Douglas Samuelson

1700 – 1800   Close Combat Overmatch Weapons (SLAMMER) – Joe Follansbee (Col., USA, ret.)

Day 2: Combat Modeling and Air Warfare Analysis

0900 – 1000   Livermore, Dupuy, and the Campaign of 1864 – John E. Horn

1000 – 1100   Nine Battles to Stanley: Using the TNDM to Recreate (Investigate? Explore?) the 1982 Falklands/Malvinas Campaign – Chip Sayers

1100 – 1200   Reserved

1200 – 1300   Lunch

1300 – 1400 Floating Fortresses: American Carriers Invulnerability to Battle Damage – Walker Gargagliano

1400 – 1500   Aces at Kursk – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

1500 – 1600   A Tale of Two Maps and Three Fighters’ Why the P51 Mustang Did NOT Win Air Superiority Over Germany – Chip Sayers 

1600 – 1700  Analysis of Aerial Warfare in the Arab-Israeli Wars, 1973-1982 – Geoffrey Clark 

1700 – 1800   open

Day 3: Other Analysis of Warfare

0900 – 1000   The Battle of Hannut May 1940: First major tank battle in history – Dr. James Slaughter

1000 – 1100    Isserson: The Architect of Victory – Dr. Richard Harrison 

1100 – 1200    Audacity versus Friction: Evaluating Operational Autism in Operation Barbarossa. – Dr. Robert Kirchubel and Dr. Sorin Adam Matei (Purdue)

1200 – 1300   Lunch

1300 – 1400   The Red Army’s Plans for a Preemptive Attack in 1941 – Dr. Richard Harrison

1400 – 1500 The Forgotten Campaign – the origin and development of American Economic Warfare in World War II (1942-1945) – Dr. R. Ben Richards (Major, USA, ret.) 

1500 – 1600  New Advances in Digital Military Cartography – Gavin Ho, Joseph Hupy, Sorin Adam Matei and Robert Kirchubel.

1600 – 1700   Arctic Defense Concerns – Alexandru Filip

1700 – 1800   open 

 

Reserve presentations:

Measuring the Value of Situational Awareness – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

Urban Warfare – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

Measuring Human Factors – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

Breakpoints – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

Group Discussion: The Next Middle East Wars

 

 

Friday, October 11: Tour of a Civil War Battlefield – Antietam: bloodiest day of the U.S. Civil War (and in the Western Hemisphere?). – we will arrange transport there and back ($20 charge for tour).

See this link below for costs ($150), address, conference description, hotels, and call for presentations: The Fourth HAAC is scheduled for 21 – 23 October 2025 – The Dupuy Institute

Last year’s schedule is here:  October’s Revised Schedule for the Third Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) 8 – 10 October 2024 – The Dupuy Institute