Mystics & Statistics

This youtube video is worthwhile. We don’t spend enough time talking logistics here. It is a 20-minute video. See: The Failed Logistics of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

There is really nothing surprisingly new today. I will put the updated sections of this daily post in italics.

No real change for like the fifth day in the row. Shelling and missile strikes in and around Kiev and Kharkov, but no fighting in the cities that we are aware of. Russia continues to occupy three cities, Berdyansk (pop. 107,928), Melitopol (pop. 150,768) and Kherson (pop. 283,649).

There was a sense that Russia was moving up forces on Kiev and Kharkov to either isolate or assault these cities. So far neither has happed at either city. I gather neither Kiev nor Kharkov are fully isolated. Not sure Russia is going to try to at this stage. They appear to be holding while working on Mariupol.

They have isolated Mariupol. The city has been without power since 1 March. I gather the Russian forces in that area are not overwhelming. Not sure they have the strength to take it or will try. Instead, it appears that they are going to try to starve it out. The vice-mayor said on the morning of 3 March on CNN that they could hold out for five days. This is now a city far enough away from the other fighting grounds, that I assume there will no real attempt to relieve it. 

So, it does appear that this is the first “siege” of the campaign. Is the future of the Russian offensive? Is the next one at Kharkov? 

We are looking six major areas of operations right now.

1. Kiev

2. Odessa

3. Kharkov

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces
5. Mariupol
6. Crimean border/Kherson

Here is what I have heard/seen from open sources:

1. Kiev (pop: 2,962,180): The reinforced Russian Army is in the northern outskirts of Kiev (the Obolon district). They have also occupied the defunct nuclear power plant at Chernobyl and the large Antonov/Hostomel airport north of Kiev. They appear to be at the northern and eastern outskirts of the city. At one point they were within four miles from the center of the city. The center of the city appears peaceful.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains defiantly in Kiev. I gather the city is still open to the west and the south.

Chernigov (pop. 285,234) it located to the NNE of Kiev. The Russians have pushed columns past the city and down to Kiev, but the city remains under Ukrainian control. It is reported that all exits from the city have been mined.

2. Odessa (pop: 1,015,826): Appears to be safe and secure for now. Have seen CNN reports on the morning of 4 March of the locals building up the defenses there.

3. Kharkov (pop: 1,433,886): Kharkov is being shelled but it does not look like the Russians have tried to re-enter the city. Not sure it has been completely isolated.

Update: Have at least one video-based report of a Ukrainian counterattack outside of Kharkov. Have no idea of its size or success. As I suspect that surrounding and besieging Kharkov will be the next major objective of the Russian Army after they take Mariupol, I do consider this significant. The question is, is it significant enough to keep Kharkov from being encircled.

Sumy (pop. 259,660) looks in danger of being isolated. The Russians have taken Konotop (pop. 84,787).

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces: So far, we have not heard much from this area.

5. Mariupol (pop: 431,859): Day 4 of the siege? This city of part of the Donetsk Oblast (province/county) and is on the route to Crimea. Mariupol is partly encircled and the power to the city is down. It appears they are going to keep it isolated and besiege it. The vice-mayor of this city said on 3 March that they can hold out for five days. I do not expect any significant relief columns.

6. Crimea & Kherson (pop: 283,649): Kherson is under Russian control. Yesterday Ukraine was claiming that there were still parts of the city under Ukranian control. Not sure if that is the case today. Mikolaiv (pop. 476,101), the city on the Southern Bug River just west of Kherson, is still under Ukranian control. The Russians appear to have gained control of a lot of the area just to the north of Crimea. This may be the end of their expansion in this area for now until they take Mariupol.

Update: Videos show Large Ukrainian protests in Kherson. This is in a city that is 20% Russian and 45% Russian speaking (in 2001).  

Russia has taken Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which is making everyone nervous. It is the largest nuclear power plant in Europe.

I will update this post during the day as I find more information. 

The Home Front: Count of detained protesters is claimed to be 7,359. Protests continue. At least 800 people have been detained in Belarus. 11,569 medical professionals have signed a letter protesting the war, using their names, title and affiliation. 

Exchange rate: 124.04 as of 9.07 AM EST. Not sure what the exchange rate will be if Russia ever opens its stock market. 

Price of oil (Brent crude): $118.05 (at 09:08 AM EST). The last report I saw, 52% of the Russian government revenue comes from oil (even though it makes up only 7% of their economy). There is a strong desire on the part of the west to bring this price down, as it undercuts their budget.

Casualties: The UN is reporting at least 351 civilians dead in the war. Ukraine is claiming over 2,000. Ukraine is reporting over 110 soldiers killed. Russia is claiming to have captured 572 soldiers (which is entirely believable). Russia reported yesterday 498 troops have been killed and 1,597 wounded. This is a 3.21-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio, which seems a little low (see link below). Ukraine is reporting almost 200 Russians captured. U.S. officials are claiming around 2,000 Russian soldiers killed and 3,000 captured. Have no idea of the validity of the U.S. figures but suspect the Russian casualty figures are understated (because they kind of always are).

Note: Wounded-To-Killed Ratios | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Also see Chapter 15 (Casualties) in War by Numbers.

The twitter account @oryxspioenko is reporting 99 Russian tanks have been lost by Russia based upon visual confirmation.

Update: @oryxspioenko is reporting 10 Russian aircraft shot down in the last 26 hours based upon videos of them being shot, been shot down, or their crews captured. This includes five Su-24s, Su-25s and Su-30 jets. Granted Russian has well over a thousand modern jet aircraft, but it does show that the Ukrainians do have some capability to defend their airspace. I gather as more Stingers and other surface-to-air missiles are received and deployed; this is going to become a more dangerous environment. It may serve to contain Russian air.

It is clear that at least 1,500 people have died in this conflict. It may get a lot a bloodier if there are direct assaults on Kiev and Kharkov.

There are people doing a better job of this on Twitter, including @RALee85 and @Oryxspioenkop and @caucasuswar, none of whom are known to me.

End of the War:  While Ukrainian and Russian delegations are talking, I don’t expect much from this in the short term. As Mariupol is supposedly three days away from falling, I suspect the Russians will not be interested in negotiating until they have taken it. It is part of the Donetsk province.

The attached map is from Wikipedia giving the “Military situation as of 5 March 2022.” View with caution.

No real change for like the third day in the row. Shelling and missile strikes in and around Kiev and Kharkov, but no fighting in the cities that we are aware of. Russia continues to occupy three cities, Berdyansk (pop. 107,928), Melitopol (pop. 150,768) and Kherson (pop. 283,649).

There was a sense that Russia was moving up forces on Kiev and Kharkov to either isolate or assault these cities. So far neither has happed at either city. I gather neither Kiev nor Kharkov are fully isolated. Not sure Russia is going to try to at this stage. They appear to be holding while working on Mariupol.

They have isolated Mariupol. The city has been without power for a day and half. I gather the Russian forces in that area are not overwhelming. Not sure they have the strength to take it or will try. Instead, it appears that they are going to try to starve it out. The vice-mayor said this morning on CNN that they could hold out for five days. This is now a city far enough away from the other fighting grounds, that I assume there will no real attempt to relieve it. 

So, it does appear that this is the first “siege” of the campaign. Is the future of the Russian offensive? Is the next one at Kharkov? 

We are looking six major areas of operations right now.

1. Kiev

2. Odessa

3. Kharkov

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces
5. Mariupol
6. Crimean border/Kherson

Here is what I have heard/seen from open sources:

1. Kiev (pop: 2,962,180): The reinforced Russian Army is in the northern outskirts of Kiev (the Obolon district). They have also occupied the defunct nuclear power plant at Chernobyl and the large Antonov/Hostomel airport north of Kiev. They appear to be at the northern and eastern outskirts of the city, maybe four miles from the center of the city. The center of the city appears peaceful.

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky remains defiantly in Kiev. I gather the city is still open to the west and the south.

Chernigov (pop. 285,234) it located to the NNE of Kiev. The Russians have pushed columns past the city and down to Kiev, but the city remains under Ukrainian control. It is reported that all exits from the city have been mined.

2. Odessa (pop: 1,015,826): Appears to be safe and secure for now. Have seen reports of the locals building up the defenses there.

3. Kharkov (pop: 1,433,886): Kharkov is being shelled but it does not look like the Russians have tried to re-enter the city. Not sure it has been completely isolated.

Sumy (pop. 259,660) looks in danger of being isolated. The Russians have taken Konotop (pop. 84,787).

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces: So far, we have not heard much from this area.

5. Mariupol (pop: 431,859): Day 2 of the siege? This city of part of the Donetsk Oblast (province/county) and is on the route to Crimea. Mariupol is partly encircled and the power to the city is down. It appears they are going to keep it isolated and besiege it. The vice-mayor of this city is saying they can hold out for five days. I do not expect any significant relief columns.

6. Crimea & Kherson (pop: 283,649): Kherson is under Russian control. Yesterday Ukraine was claiming that there were still parts of the city under Ukranian control. Not sure if that is the case today. Mikolaiv (pop. 476,101), the city on the Southern Bug River just west of Kherson, is still under Ukranian control. The Russians appear to have gained control of a lot of the area just to the north of Crimea. This may be the end of their expansion in this area for now until they take Mariupol.

I will update this post during the day as I find more information. 

The Home Front: Count of detained protesters is claimed to be 7,359. Protests continue. At least 800 people have been detained in Belarus. 

Exchange rate: 109.3 rubles to a dollar. Not sure what the exchange rate will be if Russia ever opens its stock market. 

Price of oil (Brent crude): $108.70 (at 09:43 EST). The last report I saw, 52% of the Russian government revenue comes from oil (even though it makes up only 7% of their economy). There is a strong desire on the part of the west to bring this price down, as it undercuts their budget.

Casualties: The UN is reporting at least 752 civilians dead in the war. Ukraine is claiming over 2,000. Ukraine is reporting over 110 soldiers killed. Russia is claiming to have captured 572 soldiers (which is entirely believable). Russia reported yesterday 498 troops have been killed and 1,597 wounded. This is a 3.21-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio, which seems a little low (see link below). Ukraine is reporting almost 200 Russians captured. U.S. officials are claiming around 2,000 Russian soldiers killed and 3,000 captured. Have no idea of the validity of the U.S. figures but suspect the Russian casualty figures are understated (because they kind of always are).

Update: Wounded-To-Killed Ratios | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Also see Chapter 15 (Casualties) in War by Numbers.

It is clear that at least 1,500 people have died in this conflict. It may get a lot a bloodier if there are direct assaults on Kiev and Kharkov.

There are people doing a better job of this on Twitter, including @RALee85 and @Oryxspioenkop and @caucasuswar, none of whom are known to me.

End of the War:  While Ukrainian and Russian delegations are talking, I don’t expect much from this in the short term. As Mariupol is supposedly five days away from falling, I suspect the Russians will not be interested in negotiating until they have taken it. It is part of the Donetsk province.

The attached map is from Wikipedia giving the military situation recently but is not dated. I assume it is as of the afternoon (UTC) of today. View with caution.

Nothing much changing on the ground yet. Russia continues to occupy two smaller cities, Berdyansk (pop. 107,928) and Melitopol (pop. 150,768); and have taken Kherson (pop. 283,649).

The big story is what appears to be the coming major attacks on Kiev and Kharkov. These are going to start either today or tomorrow or the day after tomorrow. It does take time to deploy all the reinforcements. This appear to be properly organized and supplied attacks with artillery support, and so forth. 

Right now, neither Kiev nor Kharkov are fully isolated. Is Russia going to try to surround one or both cities before going in (which does take some manpower) or are they just going to try to go in, under the assumption that under major pressure, the Ukrainians will fold? While the Russians are clearly concentrating considerable force to the north of both Kiev and Kharkov, is it not known to this writer how many trained Ukranian forces are defending each of these cities, is it 4,000 or 40,000? 

In a real sense, this first phase of this campaign is over, and Russia clearly did not win it. Now, having tried for the cheap and easy victory using “forward detachments,” now comes the serious fighting to either isolate and/or take Kiev and Kharkov. This is a new second phase of the campaign. My sense is that if these two cities hold out, then this war will probably be terminated sooner rather than later.

There may also be a push on Mariupol from the forces to the east and the west of it. They already have the city partially enveloped. Not sure they have the strength to take it or will try.

There are rumors that Belarus is about the join the war on Russia’s side. The Belarusian Armed Forces has only 46,000 soldiers, and their contribution on the ground will be much less than that. Not sure what their morale and training is, but back in 2020 Lukashenko was nearly overthrown by popular protests. I doubt he is any more loved now.

Update: Lukashenko is saying it is not happening.

We are looking six major areas of operations right now.

1. Kiev

2. Odessa

3. Kharkov

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces
5. Mariupol
6. Crimean border/Kherson

Here is what I have heard/seen from open sources:

1. Kiev (pop: 2,962,180): The reinforced Russian Army is in the northern outskirts of Kiev (the Obolon district). They have also occupied the defunct nuclear power plant at Chernobyl and the large Antonov/Hostomel airport north of Kiev. They appear to be at the northern and eastern outskirts of the city, maybe four miles from the center of the city. The center of the city appears peaceful.

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky remains defiantly in Kiev. I gather the city is still open to the west and the south, although some reports have claimed otherwise.

2. Odessa (pop: 1,015,826): I have not seen any reports and the camera shots from Odessa show peace and quiet for the fifth day in a row.

3. Kharkov (pop: 1,433,886): The Russian push into Kharkov failed the day before yesterday. They have received reinforcements from Belgorod. Whether they are going to attack the city or envelop it first is yet to be seen. They did conduct some random shelling of the city yesterday that did not appear to have any military objective, only caused civilian casualties.  

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces: So far, we have not heard much from this area.

5. Mariupol (pop: 431,859): This city of part of the Donetsk Oblast (province/county) and is on the route to Crimea. There was an amphibious landing of at least 2,000 troops behind it and they have occupied Berdyansk and Melitipol. Mariupol is partly encircled and the power to the city is down. Not sure if Russia is going to attack it. 

6. Crimea & Kherson (pop: 283,649): I gather Kherson fell to Russia yesterday, although not much has been reported on this. I gather Mikolaiv (pop. 476,101), the city on the Southern Bug River just west of Kherson, is still under Ukranian control. The Russians appear to have gained control of a lot of the area just to the north of Crimea.

I will update this post during the day as I find more information. 

The Home Front: Count of detained protesters is around 6,400. Protests continue. At least 800 people have been detained in Belarus. 

Exhange rate: 103 rubles to a dollar (maybe, could be worse). 

Price of oil (Brent crude): $103.38 (at 09:05)

 Casualties: The UN is reporting at least 406 civilians dead in the war. Ukraine is “only” reporting 352. Ukraine is reporting over 110 soldiers killed. Russia is claiming to have captured over 470 soldiers (which is entirely believable). Russian casualties are guestimated, but it clearly includes several dozen killed and at least 15 captured. Ukraine is reporting almost 200 captured. It is clear that at least 600 people have died in this conflict. It may get a lot a bloodier if there are direct assaults on Kiev and Kharkov.

There are people doing a better job of this on Twitter, including @RALee85 and @Oryxspioenkop and @caucasuswar, none of whom are known to me.

The attached map is from Wikipedia. View with caution.

Surprisingly little new to report. This is either the quiet before the storm or Russia’s offensive has truly stalled almost everywhere.

Russia appears to occupy two smaller cities, Berdyansk (pop. 107,928) and Melitopol (pop. 150,768). This was done by an amphibious operation to take Beryansk, and I gather they have advanced from there to Melitopol. This is either part of a grander plan to surround and isolate and then take Mariupol; or is a rather pointless punch to nowhere. We shall see.

The real story appears to be the Russian reinforcements. There is a 3-mile long column spotted north of Kiev. I gather being three miles long, that is probably a brigade-size task force (up to 5,000 people). I gather at this stage, one more brigade to the north of Kiev does not mean that the Ukrainian defense of Kiev will collapse. There are rumors that Belarus is about the join the war on Russia’s side. If so, this indicates a rather dubious and desperate reinforcement of the attack on Kiev. The Belarusian Armed Forces has only 46,000 soldiers, and their contribution on the ground will be much less than that. Not sure what their morale and training is, but back in 2020 Lukashenko was nearly overthrown by popular protests. I doubt he is any more loved now.

There are also reports from CNN that forces around Belgorod are moving south towards Kharkov. This movement could clearly be identified by several broken down vehicles parked along the road.  While moving any military unit leaves behind a trail of broken-down vehicles, there is reason to believe that this is another sign of how poorly prepared are the standard rank-and-file Russian units. The interviews I have seen of captured Russian soldiers only reinforces that view. In one case, the called-up soldier has only been with the unit for two weeks and did not know the name of his unit. 

So, what we may be a seeing is a quiet day or two as the reinforcements are lined up near Kiev and Kharkov and then the offensive is renewed in both locales with deadly seriousness. There may also be a push on Mariupol from the forces at Berdyansk. Suspect they will be able to envelop the city. Not sure they have the strength to take it or will try.

We are looking six major areas of operations right now.

1. Kiev

2. Odessa

3. Kharkov

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces
5. Mariupol
6. Crimean border/Kherson

Here is what I have heard/seen from open sources:

1. Kiev (pop: 2,962,180): The Russian Army is in the northern outskirts of Kiev (the Obolon district). They have also occupied the defunct nuclear power plant at Chernobyl and the large Antonov/Hostomel airport north of Kiev. They appear to be at the northern and eastern outskirts of the city, maybe four miles from the center of the city. The center of the city appears peaceful.

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky remains defiantly in Kiev. The city is open to the west and the south.

It does not appear that Russia is aggressively, if at all, pushing into the city. 

Afternoon (EST) update: American satellite company is reporting a column of 17 miles in length north of Kiev. This is a pretty serious collection of forces, but not as scary as it sounds.

An old style Russian motorized rifle regiment has over 500 vehicles (about 280 trucks, 100 APCs and 140 tanks and IFVs). If you give them all 25 meters of linear space per vehicle (which is tight, especially when moving), then this comes out to something like eight miles. This could be a force of multiple brigades, if they are so densely packed. I gather there is also resupply and logistical vehicles in the column. Someone could count the vehicles in the photos for a more precise estimate, but I have not done that.

2. Odessa (pop: 1,015,826): I have not seen any reports and the camera shots from Odessa show peace and quiet for the fourth day in a row.

3. Kharkov (pop: 1,433,886): The Russian push into Kharkov failed yesterday. Suspect they are going to halt and reorganize and wait for reinforcements from Belgorod.

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces: So far, we have not heard much from this area.

5. Mariupol (pop: 431,859): This city of part of the Donetsk Oblast (province/county) and is on the route to Crimea. There was an amphibious landing of at least 2,000 troops behind it and they have occupied Berdyansk and Melitipol. Expect they will encircle Mariupol. 

6. Crimea & Kherson (pop: 283,649): Kherson remains under Ukrainian control as I gather is the case with Mikolaiv (pop. 476,101), the city on the Southern Bug River just west of Kherson.

I will update this post during the day as I find more information. 

The Home Front: Count of detained protesters is near 6,000. Protests continue. Considering the size of the anti-government protests in Belarus a couple of years ago, not sure what will happen if Belarus enters the war. 

Afternoon (EST) update: At least 800 people have been detained in Belarus. 

Casualties: The UN is reporting at least 406 civilians dead in the war. Ukraine reported two days ago 137 Ukrainians killed (mostly service members). Russia is claiming to have captured over 470 soldiers (which is entirely believable). Russian casualties are guestimated, but it clearly includes several dozen killed and at least 15 captured. It is clear that at least 600 people have died in this conflict.

According to photos, at least 15 Russians have been captured, as have 40 Ukrainians (see @caucasuswar). 

There are people doing a better job of this on Twitter, including @RALee85 and @Oryxspioenkop and @caucasuswar, none of whom are known to me.