Mystics & Statistics

The First Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 in Tysons Corner, VA – update 2

Just a reminder, we are hosting the first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September, 2022 in Tysons Corner, VA, USA. It is being hosted by The Dupuy Institute but is an open conference and we are looking for interested presenters and attendees from all corners of the historical analysis, operations research, and historical research communities.

Purpose:

To explore and promote the use of historical analysis in understanding military affairs.

It is built in part upon the work done by the HERO (Historical Evaluation Research Organization), TNDA (Trevor N. Dupuy and Associates), DMSI (Data Memory Systems Inc.), TMCI (The Military Conflict Institute), TDI (The Dupuy Institute) and elements of the Cornwallis Group. Similar in concept to the TMCI conferences.

First Conference:

Will be held 27-29 September 2022 at Tysons Corner, Virginia, near Washington, DC. It is in honor of the 60th anniversary of the Trevor N. Dupuy founded organizations and the 30th anniversary of The Dupuy Institute.

It is expected that the conference will include a wide range of attendees and presenters from private industry, academia, the U.S. government, the UK operational research and historical analysis community, and other interested parties.

The first day (Tuesday) of the conference with be focused on Analysis of Conventional Warfare, the second day (Wednesday) on Analysis of Unconventional Warfare and the third day (Thursday) with include Other Analysis of Warfare. Each presentation will be a maximum of 45 minutes with at least 15 minutes set aside for questions and discussion.

If demand is high enough, the conference will be broken into working groups as required.

Historical Analysis:

There is no clear definition as to what historical analysis consists of. For the purposes of this conference, it is that analysis of history that is focused on military affairs and is usually quantitative in approach and based upon a large number of cases (as opposed to being a case study). Historical Analysis is considered a proper subdiscipline of UK Operational Research. It is not considered part of Operations Research in the United States.

The UK Dstl defines historical analysis as “The use of mathematical, statistical, qualitative and other forms of analysis to understand historical engagements, operations, campaigns and conflicts for the purpose of providing impartial analysis and sensitive decision support to policy makers.”

The key elements of what The Dupuy Institute looks for in historical analysis is that it is 1) based upon history, with a strong bias towards primary sources (i.e. unit records), 2) it is a based upon a representative sample of cases, not just a case study of one or two cases, 3) it is analytical in approach, 4) it is using past real-world experience for analyzing and addressing a problem of today. Historical analysis is simply the analysis of real-world experiences.

There are people who are doing surveys of historical operations, basically doing multiple case studies to examine trends and patterns. While these are not based upon the large databases that The Dupuy Institute favors, these are efforts worth examining and such efforts will also be explored at our conferences.

Costs:

Cost of attendance will be $150 for the entire conference. Dining and hotels are at the expense of the attendees. There will be facilities for virtual attendees and virtual presenters, but the focus of the conference will be in-person presentations and attendees.

Call for Presentations:

We are making a call for papers and presentations at that time. We have already set up a preliminary list of presenters.

Long-term Goal:

The long-term goal is a create a series of periodic conferences for the purposes of presenting, examining and encouraging historical analysis of military affairs across a wide-range of issues.

For questions, suggestions, comments, or to volunteer for presentations, please contact:

Christopher A. Lawrence

The Dupuy Institute

(703) 289-0007

LawrenceTDI@aol.com

 

 

P.S. In subsequent posts I will be posting the rates for the conference, the list of nearby hotels, and a preliminary list of presenters.

The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 – Day 13 (ground actions)

Not much movement on the ground, but it does look like some serious fights the last couple of days around Mikolaiv and Kharkov. Front line trace is not moving much. I will put the updated sections of this daily post in italics.

No real change for like the eighth day in the row. Shelling and missile strikes in and around Kiev and Kharkov, but no fighting in the cities that we are aware of. Russia continues to occupy three cities, Berdyansk (pop. 107,928), Melitopol (pop. 150,768) and Kherson (pop. 283,649).

There was a sense that Russia was moving up forces on Kiev and Kharkov to either isolate or assault these cities. So far neither has happed at either city. Russian tanks are being reported in the suburbs west of Kiev, at Irpin.

They have isolated Mariupol. The city has been without power since 1 March. I gather the Russian forces in that area are not overwhelming. Not sure they have the strength to take it or will try. Instead, it appears that they are going to try to starve it out. The vice-mayor said on the morning of 3 March on CNN that they could hold out for five days. This is now a city far enough away from the other fighting grounds, that I assume there will no real attempt to relieve it. 

So, it does appear that this is the first “siege” of the campaign. Is the future of the Russian offensive? Is the next one at Kharkov? 

We are looking six major areas of operations right now.

1. Kiev

2. Odessa

3. Kharkov

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces
5. Mariupol
6. Crimean border/Kherson

Here is what I have heard/seen from open sources:

1. Kiev (pop: 2,962,180): The reinforced Russian Army is in the northern outskirts of Kiev (the Obolon district). They have also occupied the defunct nuclear power plant at Chernobyl and the large Antonov/Hostomel airport north of Kiev. They appear to be at the northern and eastern outskirts of the city. At one point they were within four miles from the center of the city. Russian tanks are being reported in the suburbs west of Kiev, at Irpin. The center of the city appears peaceful.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains defiantly in Kiev. I gather the city is still open to the south.

Chernigov (pop. 285,234) it located to the NNE of Kiev. The Russians have pushed columns past the city and down to Kiev, but the city remains under Ukrainian control. It is reported that all exits from the city have been mined. There have been some Russian tank and jet aircraft losses around this area.

2. Odessa (pop: 1,015,826): Appears to be safe and secure for now. Continue to see news reports (CNN and France 24) of the locals building up the defenses there. They did damage (sink?) a 1300-to-1700-ton patrol vessel yesterday: Vasily Bykov

3. Kharkov (pop: 1,433,886): Kharkov is being shelled but it does not look like the Russians have tried to re-enter the city.  

There was at least one video-based report a couple of days ago of a Ukrainian counterattack outside of Kharkov. I then noted this recent video, which kind of looks like a recent Ukrainian counterattack. See: Welcome to Ukraine S…. This minute long video is definitely worth watching. It shows four tanks abandoned/destroyed, two Lt. Colonels were killed, and at least a half-dozen fuel trucks taken/destroyed.  The fight occurred at Chuhuiv, 35 km SE of Kharkov. It is on the map above.

As I suspect that surrounding and besieging Kharkov will be the next major objective of the Russian Army after they take Mariupol, I do consider this significant. The question is, is it significant enough to keep Kharkov from being encircled.

Sumy (pop. 259,660) looks in danger of being isolated. The Russians have taken Konotop (pop. 84,787).

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces: So far, we have not heard much from this area.

5. Mariupol (pop: 431,859): Day 7 of the siege. This city of part of the Donetsk Oblast (province/county) and is on the route to Crimea. Mariupol is partly encircled and the power to the city is down. It appears they are going to keep it isolated and besiege it. The vice-mayor of this city said on 3 March that they can hold out for five days. I do not expect any significant relief columns.

6. Crimea & Kherson (pop: 283,649): Kherson is under Russian control. 

Mikolaiv (pop. 476,101), the city on the Southern Bug River just west of Kherson, is still under Ukranian control. There has been a lot of fighting here recently, but it looks like the Ukrainian Army is holding.

The Russians appear to have gained control of a lot of the area just to the north of Crimea. This may be the end of their expansion in this area for now until they take Mariupol. 

Russia has taken Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which is making everyone nervous. It is the largest nuclear power plant in Europe.

I will update this post during the day as I find more information. 

Ukrainian Army Build-up: According to the Ukrainian defense minister, more have 140,000 Ukrainians has returned and more than 20,000 foreigners from 52 countries have appealed to fight for Ukraine. This includes about 3,000 Americans who have “expressed interest” according to Ukraine. I have seen reports of volunteers from places like Thailand and Japan (70 volunteers). According to Fox News some are being turned away because of a lack of weapons. According to senior U.S. officials, the U.S. and other NATO members have so far sent Ukraine 17,000 AT missiles and 2,000 Stinger AA missiles.

The Russian Home Front: Count of detained protesters is claimed to be over 13,000 since the war began, with at least 4,640 people this Sunday. See: OVD-info. Protests continue. At least 800 people have been detained in Belarus. 11,569 medical professionals have signed a letter protesting the war, using their names, title and affiliation. 

Exchange rate: 145.50 as of 8:18 AM EST. Not sure what the exchange rate will be if Russia ever opens its stock market. 

Price of oil (Brent crude): $128.81 as of 8:19 AM EST. The last report I saw, 52% of the Russian government revenue comes from oil (even though it makes up only 7% of their economy). There is a strong desire on the part of the west to bring this price down, as it undercuts their budget.

Casualties: The UN is reporting 406 civilians confirmed dead in the war, 23 in territory controlled by Russian separatists. Ukraine is claiming over 2,000. Ukraine is reporting over 110 soldiers killed. Russia is claiming to have captured 572 soldiers (which is entirely believable). Russia reported yesterday 498 troops have been killed and 1,597 wounded. This is a 3.21-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio, which seems a little low (see link below). Ukraine is reporting almost 200 Russians captured. U.S. officials are claiming around 2,000 Russian soldiers killed and 3,000 captured. Have no idea of the validity of the U.S. figures but suspect the Russian casualty figures are understated (because they kind of always are).

Note: Wounded-To-Killed Ratios | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Also see Chapter 15 (Casualties) in War by Numbers.

The twitter account @oryxspioenko is reporting on 5 March 99 Russian tanks have been lost by Russia based upon visual confirmation. For 6 March this is now 116. He is also reporting 10 Russian aircraft shot down in the last 26 hours based upon videos of them being shot, been shot down, or their crews captured. This includes five Su-25s, Su-30s and Su-34 jets. Granted Russian has well over a thousand modern jet aircraft, but it does show that the Ukrainians do have some capability to defend their airspace. I gather as more Stingers and other surface-to-air missiles are received and deployed; this is going to become a more dangerous environment. It may serve to contain Russian air.

Russian Equipment Losses: As of 2100 hours on 7 March, @oryxspioenko is reporting the following Russian losses based upon his analysis of pictures and videos. See: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

Tanks: 141

AFVs: 89

IFVs: 131

APCs: 52

Jet aircraft: 10

Helicopters: 11

 

Ukrainian Equipment Losses: As of 2100 hours on 7 March, @oryxspioenko is reporting the following Ukrainian losses based upon his analysis of pictures and videos:

Tanks: 46

AFVs: 38

IFVs: 33

APCs: 18

Jet aircraft: 6

Helicopters: 0

 

Have no idea how accurate this count really is (the Ukrainian losses seem low), but I figure it is probably the best count publicly available.

It is clear that at least 1,500 people have died in this conflict. It may be more like 3,000 deaths. I am not confident in the accuracy of claims like those made by the Ukrainian general staff that more than 11,000 Russian troops were killed in the first 10 days.

There are people doing a better job of this on Twitter, including @RALee85 and @Oryxspioenkop and @caucasuswar, none of whom are known to me.

End of the War:  While Ukrainian and Russian delegations are talking, I don’t expect much from this in the short term. Mariupol is now supposed to fall. I suspect the Russians will not be interested in negotiating until they have taken it. It is part of the Donetsk province.

Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, today provided four conditions for a cease fire:

  1. Ukraine ceases military action,
  2. Change its constitution to enshrine neutrality,
  3. Acknowledge Crimea as Russian territory, and
  4. Recognize the People’s Republics of Donetsk and Lugansk as independent states. 

The attached map is from Wikipedia giving the “Military situation as of 8 March 2022.” View with caution.

Old posts reactivated

It does appear that number of our older posts are being tapped. We do have over 1,300 posts on this blog now going back to December 2015. Some of these older posts are getting a lot of attention recently. This includes this perennial favorite, that seems to have been recently quoted in a couple of news articles: 

The Russian Artillery Strike That Spooked The U.S. Army | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

This one is also getting a lot of attention: 

Wounded-To-Killed Ratios | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

This blog post was written from my draft book War by Numbers. It is more fully covered in Chapter 15 of that book. What is surprising is that no one has done any work on this subject since then. I thought I had a contract in late 2020 to further expand and expound on the subject, but apparently some of the “reviewers” of the proposed effort decided that were other things more important to examine. Therefore, my Chapter on casualties appear to be the “cutting edge” of this discussion, and as far as I know, will be the most extended discussion of the subject for some years to come. I would like to do more on this, but don’t think I will without outside funding.

The post below always regularly gets hits. I think that is because a number of people first found our blog when we did this post, and therefore, they still use this blog post to enter our blog. Still, it is relevant. 

Population over Time (US vs USSR) | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

This old post is also relevant right now:

What would a reconstituted Soviet Union/Russian Empire look like? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

And then there are a number of old posts related to combat that seem to be getting hits. This includes:

U.S. Tank Losses and Crew Casualties in World War II | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Measuring The Effects Of Combat In Cities, Phase I | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Active Defense, Forward Defense, and A2/AD in Eastern Europe | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

I do think our three Urban Warfare studies were overlooked by the urban warfare community, in part, because it really did not say what they wanted it to say. Below is another of our blog posts on the subject, as we have two chapters on the subject in my book War by Numbers:

Urban Combat in War by Numbers | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

I gather CAA (Center for Army Analysis) was just fine with our reports, and had issued us a follow-on contract for fourth study, that never came to fruition:

Urban Phase IV – Stalingrad | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

At this point, even though I think this is worth doing, and we have already independently collected a lot of the Russian unit records for the fighting, it is probably not ever going to be done without outside funding. I have got other solo projects that are of higher priority to me (more on them later).

 

The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 – Day 12 (ground actions)

Again, no major new events today. I will put the updated sections of this daily post in italics.

No real change for like the seventh day in the row. Shelling and missile strikes in and around Kiev and Kharkov, but no fighting in the cities that we are aware of. Russia continues to occupy three cities, Berdyansk (pop. 107,928), Melitopol (pop. 150,768) and Kherson (pop. 283,649).

There was a sense that Russia was moving up forces on Kiev and Kharkov to either isolate or assault these cities. So far neither has happed at either city. I gather neither Kiev nor Kharkov are fully isolated. Russian tanks are being reported in the suburbs west of Kiev, at Irpin. 

The Russian army hide military equipment at residential complex in Irpin, near Kyiv, Ukraine, on March 6 (source: CNN).

They have isolated Mariupol. The city has been without power since 1 March. I gather the Russian forces in that area are not overwhelming. Not sure they have the strength to take it or will try. Instead, it appears that they are going to try to starve it out. The vice-mayor said on the morning of 3 March on CNN that they could hold out for five days. This is now a city far enough away from the other fighting grounds, that I assume there will no real attempt to relieve it. 

So, it does appear that this is the first “siege” of the campaign. Is the future of the Russian offensive? Is the next one at Kharkov? 

We are looking six major areas of operations right now.

1. Kiev

2. Odessa

3. Kharkov

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces
5. Mariupol
6. Crimean border/Kherson

Here is what I have heard/seen from open sources:

1. Kiev (pop: 2,962,180): The reinforced Russian Army is in the northern outskirts of Kiev (the Obolon district). They have also occupied the defunct nuclear power plant at Chernobyl and the large Antonov/Hostomel airport north of Kiev. They appear to be at the northern and eastern outskirts of the city. At one point they were within four miles from the center of the city. Russian tanks are being reported in the suburbs west of Kiev, at Irpin. The center of the city appears peaceful.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains defiantly in Kiev. I gather the city is still open to the west and the south.

Chernigov (pop. 285,234) it located to the NNE of Kiev. The Russians have pushed columns past the city and down to Kiev, but the city remains under Ukrainian control. It is reported that all exits from the city have been mined.

2. Odessa (pop: 1,015,826): Appears to be safe and secure for now. Continue to see news reports (CNN and France 24) of the locals building up the defenses there.

3. Kharkov (pop: 1,433,886): Kharkov is being shelled but it does not look like the Russians have tried to re-enter the city. Not sure it has been completely isolated. There is at least one video-based report of a Ukrainian counterattack outside of Kharkov. Have no idea of its size or success. As I suspect that surrounding and besieging Kharkov will be the next major objective of the Russian Army after they take Mariupol, I do consider this significant. The question is, is it significant enough to keep Kharkov from being encircled.

Sumy (pop. 259,660) looks in danger of being isolated. The Russians have taken Konotop (pop. 84,787).

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces: So far, we have not heard much from this area.

5. Mariupol (pop: 431,859): Day 6 of the siege. This city of part of the Donetsk Oblast (province/county) and is on the route to Crimea. Mariupol is partly encircled and the power to the city is down. It appears they are going to keep it isolated and besiege it. The vice-mayor of this city said on 3 March that they can hold out for five days. I do not expect any significant relief columns.

6. Crimea & Kherson (pop: 283,649): Kherson is under Russian control. Yesterday Ukraine was claiming that there were still parts of the city under Ukranian control. Not sure if that is the case today. Mikolaiv (pop. 476,101), the city on the Southern Bug River just west of Kherson, is still under Ukranian control. The Russians appear to have gained control of a lot of the area just to the north of Crimea. This may be the end of their expansion in this area for now until they take Mariupol. 

Russia has taken Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which is making everyone nervous. It is the largest nuclear power plant in Europe.

I will update this post during the day as I find more information. 

Ukrainian Army Build-up: According to the Ukrainian defense minister, more have 140,000 Ukrainians has returned and more than 20,000 foreigners from 52 countries have appealed to fight for Ukraine. I have seen reports of volunteers from places like Thailand and Japan (70 volunteers). According to Fox News some are being turned away because of a lack of weapons. According to senior U.S. officials, the U.S. and other NATO members have so far sent Ukraine 17,000 AT missiles and 2,000 Stinger AA missiles.

The Russian Home Front: Count of detained protesters is claimed to be over 13,000 since the war began, with at least 4,640 people this Sunday. See: OVD-info. Protests continue. At least 800 people have been detained in Belarus. 11,569 medical professionals have signed a letter protesting the war, using their names, title and affiliation. 

Exchange rate: 144.26 as of 8:22 AM EST. Not sure what the exchange rate will be if Russia ever opens its stock market. 

Price of oil (Brent crude): $122.48 as of 8:22 AM EST. The last report I saw, 52% of the Russian government revenue comes from oil (even though it makes up only 7% of their economy). There is a strong desire on the part of the west to bring this price down, as it undercuts their budget.

Casualties: The UN is reporting 364 civilians confirmed dead in the war, 23 in territory controlled by Russian separatists. Ukraine is claiming over 2,000. Ukraine is reporting over 110 soldiers killed. Russia is claiming to have captured 572 soldiers (which is entirely believable). Russia reported yesterday 498 troops have been killed and 1,597 wounded. This is a 3.21-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio, which seems a little low (see link below). Ukraine is reporting almost 200 Russians captured. U.S. officials are claiming around 2,000 Russian soldiers killed and 3,000 captured. Have no idea of the validity of the U.S. figures but suspect the Russian casualty figures are understated (because they kind of always are).

Note: Wounded-To-Killed Ratios | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Also see Chapter 15 (Casualties) in War by Numbers.

The twitter account @oryxspioenko is reporting on 5 March 99 Russian tanks have been lost by Russia based upon visual confirmation. For 6 March this is now 116. He is also reporting 10 Russian aircraft shot down in the last 26 hours based upon videos of them being shot, been shot down, or their crews captured. This includes five Su-25s, Su-30s and Su-34 jets. Granted Russian has well over a thousand modern jet aircraft, but it does show that the Ukrainians do have some capability to defend their airspace. I gather as more Stingers and other surface-to-air missiles are received and deployed; this is going to become a more dangerous environment. It may serve to contain Russian air.

It is clear that at least 1,500 people have died in this conflict. It may be more like 3,000 deaths. I am not confident in the accuracy of claims like those made by the Ukrainian general staff that more than 11,000 Russian troops were killed in the first 10 days.

There are people doing a better job of this on Twitter, including @RALee85 and @Oryxspioenkop and @caucasuswar, none of whom are known to me.

End of the War:  While Ukrainian and Russian delegations are talking, I don’t expect much from this in the short term. As Mariupol is supposedly a day away from falling, I suspect the Russians will not be interested in negotiating until they have taken it. It is part of the Donetsk province.

Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, today provided four conditions for a cease fire:

  1. Ukraine cease military action,
  2. Change its constitution to enshrine neutrality,
  3. Acknowledge Crimea as Russian territory, and
  4. Recognize the People’s Republics of Donetsk and Lugansk as independent states. 

The attached map is from Wikipedia giving the “Military situation as of 7 March 2022.” View with caution.

Mapping Russia’s Tank Losses

This youtube video has just been released called “Mapping Russia’s Mostly Costly Tank Losses Ukraine War.” I found it interesting. See: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=adE5GlQ2Ly4

It references our old friend from the Battle of Kursk, Katukov’s First Guards Tank Army. See: First Guards Tank Army and new exercises | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) 

and: First Guards Tank Army | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

and: Next Stop Berlin? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 – Day 11 (ground actions)

There is really nothing new today. Not sure if that is because there is nothing new, or because the majority of reporters and analysts have the day off. I will put the updated sections of this daily post in italics.

No real change for like the sixth day in the row. Shelling and missile strikes in and around Kiev and Kharkov, but no fighting in the cities that we are aware of. Russia continues to occupy three cities, Berdyansk (pop. 107,928), Melitopol (pop. 150,768) and Kherson (pop. 283,649).

There was a sense that Russia was moving up forces on Kiev and Kharkov to either isolate or assault these cities. So far neither has happed at either city. I gather neither Kiev nor Kharkov are fully isolated. Not sure Russia is going to try to at this stage. They appear to be holding while working on Mariupol.

They have isolated Mariupol. The city has been without power since 1 March. I gather the Russian forces in that area are not overwhelming. Not sure they have the strength to take it or will try. Instead, it appears that they are going to try to starve it out. The vice-mayor said on the morning of 3 March on CNN that they could hold out for five days. This is now a city far enough away from the other fighting grounds, that I assume there will no real attempt to relieve it. 

So, it does appear that this is the first “siege” of the campaign. Is the future of the Russian offensive? Is the next one at Kharkov? 

We are looking six major areas of operations right now.

1. Kiev

2. Odessa

3. Kharkov

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces
5. Mariupol
6. Crimean border/Kherson

Here is what I have heard/seen from open sources:

1. Kiev (pop: 2,962,180): The reinforced Russian Army is in the northern outskirts of Kiev (the Obolon district). They have also occupied the defunct nuclear power plant at Chernobyl and the large Antonov/Hostomel airport north of Kiev. They appear to be at the northern and eastern outskirts of the city. At one point they were within four miles from the center of the city. The center of the city appears peaceful.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains defiantly in Kiev. I gather the city is still open to the west and the south.

Chernigov (pop. 285,234) it located to the NNE of Kiev. The Russians have pushed columns past the city and down to Kiev, but the city remains under Ukrainian control. There is a video of a Russian airplane being shot down there yesterday. So, the forces there are clearly well-enough armed. It is reported that all exits from the city have been mined.

2. Odessa (pop: 1,015,826): Appears to be safe and secure for now. Have seen CNN reports on the morning of 4 March of the locals building up the defenses there.

3. Kharkov (pop: 1,433,886): Kharkov is being shelled but it does not look like the Russians have tried to re-enter the city. Not sure it has been completely isolated. There is at least one video-based report of a Ukrainian counterattack outside of Kharkov. Have no idea of its size or success. As I suspect that surrounding and besieging Kharkov will be the next major objective of the Russian Army after they take Mariupol, I do consider this significant. The question is, is it significant enough to keep Kharkov from being encircled.

Sumy (pop. 259,660) looks in danger of being isolated. The Russians have taken Konotop (pop. 84,787).

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces: So far, we have not heard much from this area.

5. Mariupol (pop: 431,859): Day 5 of the siege. This city of part of the Donetsk Oblast (province/county) and is on the route to Crimea. Mariupol is partly encircled and the power to the city is down. It appears they are going to keep it isolated and besiege it. The vice-mayor of this city said on 3 March that they can hold out for five days. I do not expect any significant relief columns.

6. Crimea & Kherson (pop: 283,649): Kherson is under Russian control. Yesterday Ukraine was claiming that there were still parts of the city under Ukranian control. Not sure if that is the case today. Mikolaiv (pop. 476,101), the city on the Southern Bug River just west of Kherson, is still under Ukranian control. The Russians appear to have gained control of a lot of the area just to the north of Crimea. This may be the end of their expansion in this area for now until they take Mariupol. There are videos showing large Ukrainian protests in Kherson, maybe around 2,000 people. This is in a city that is 20% Russian and 45% Russian speaking (in 2001).  

Russia has taken Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which is making everyone nervous. It is the largest nuclear power plant in Europe.

I will update this post during the day as I find more information. 

 

The Home Front: Count of detained protesters is claimed to be over 13,000 since the war began, with at least 4,640 people this Sunday. See: OVD-info. Protests continue. At least 800 people have been detained in Belarus. 11,569 medical professionals have signed a letter protesting the war, using their names, title and affiliation. 

Exchange rate: 124.04 as of 9.57 AM EST. Has not changed since yesterday. Not sure what the exchange rate will be if Russia ever opens its stock market. 

Price of oil (Brent crude): $118.05 (at 09:58 AM EST). Has not change since yesterday. The last report I saw, 52% of the Russian government revenue comes from oil (even though it makes up only 7% of their economy). There is a strong desire on the part of the west to bring this price down, as it undercuts their budget.

Casualties: The UN is reporting 364 civilians confirmed dead in the war, 23 in territory controlled by Russian separatists. Ukraine is claiming over 2,000. Ukraine is reporting over 110 soldiers killed. Russia is claiming to have captured 572 soldiers (which is entirely believable). Russia reported yesterday 498 troops have been killed and 1,597 wounded. This is a 3.21-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio, which seems a little low (see link below). Ukraine is reporting almost 200 Russians captured. U.S. officials are claiming around 2,000 Russian soldiers killed and 3,000 captured. Have no idea of the validity of the U.S. figures but suspect the Russian casualty figures are understated (because they kind of always are).

Note: Wounded-To-Killed Ratios | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Also see Chapter 15 (Casualties) in War by Numbers.

The twitter account @oryxspioenko is reporting on 5 March 99 Russian tanks have been lost by Russia based upon visual confirmation. For 6 March this is now 116. He is also reporting 10 Russian aircraft shot down in the last 26 hours based upon videos of them being shot, been shot down, or their crews captured. This includes five Su-25s, Su-30s and Su-34 jets. Granted Russian has well over a thousand modern jet aircraft, but it does show that the Ukrainians do have some capability to defend their airspace. I gather as more Stingers and other surface-to-air missiles are received and deployed; this is going to become a more dangerous environment. It may serve to contain Russian air.

It is clear that at least 1,500 people have died in this conflict. It may be more like 3,000 deaths. I am not confident in the accuracy of claims like those made by the Ukrainian general staff that more than 11,000 Russian troops were killed in the first 10 days.

There are people doing a better job of this on Twitter, including @RALee85 and @Oryxspioenkop and @caucasuswar, none of whom are known to me.

End of the War:  While Ukrainian and Russian delegations are talking, I don’t expect much from this in the short term. As Mariupol is supposedly two days away from falling, I suspect the Russians will not be interested in negotiating until they have taken it. It is part of the Donetsk province.

The attached map is from Wikipedia giving the “Military situation as of 6 March 2022.” View with caution.

The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 – Day 10 (ground actions)

There is really nothing surprisingly new today. I will put the updated sections of this daily post in italics.

No real change for like the fifth day in the row. Shelling and missile strikes in and around Kiev and Kharkov, but no fighting in the cities that we are aware of. Russia continues to occupy three cities, Berdyansk (pop. 107,928), Melitopol (pop. 150,768) and Kherson (pop. 283,649).

There was a sense that Russia was moving up forces on Kiev and Kharkov to either isolate or assault these cities. So far neither has happed at either city. I gather neither Kiev nor Kharkov are fully isolated. Not sure Russia is going to try to at this stage. They appear to be holding while working on Mariupol.

They have isolated Mariupol. The city has been without power since 1 March. I gather the Russian forces in that area are not overwhelming. Not sure they have the strength to take it or will try. Instead, it appears that they are going to try to starve it out. The vice-mayor said on the morning of 3 March on CNN that they could hold out for five days. This is now a city far enough away from the other fighting grounds, that I assume there will no real attempt to relieve it. 

So, it does appear that this is the first “siege” of the campaign. Is the future of the Russian offensive? Is the next one at Kharkov? 

We are looking six major areas of operations right now.

1. Kiev

2. Odessa

3. Kharkov

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces
5. Mariupol
6. Crimean border/Kherson

Here is what I have heard/seen from open sources:

1. Kiev (pop: 2,962,180): The reinforced Russian Army is in the northern outskirts of Kiev (the Obolon district). They have also occupied the defunct nuclear power plant at Chernobyl and the large Antonov/Hostomel airport north of Kiev. They appear to be at the northern and eastern outskirts of the city. At one point they were within four miles from the center of the city. The center of the city appears peaceful.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains defiantly in Kiev. I gather the city is still open to the west and the south.

Chernigov (pop. 285,234) it located to the NNE of Kiev. The Russians have pushed columns past the city and down to Kiev, but the city remains under Ukrainian control. It is reported that all exits from the city have been mined.

2. Odessa (pop: 1,015,826): Appears to be safe and secure for now. Have seen CNN reports on the morning of 4 March of the locals building up the defenses there.

3. Kharkov (pop: 1,433,886): Kharkov is being shelled but it does not look like the Russians have tried to re-enter the city. Not sure it has been completely isolated.

Update: Have at least one video-based report of a Ukrainian counterattack outside of Kharkov. Have no idea of its size or success. As I suspect that surrounding and besieging Kharkov will be the next major objective of the Russian Army after they take Mariupol, I do consider this significant. The question is, is it significant enough to keep Kharkov from being encircled.

Sumy (pop. 259,660) looks in danger of being isolated. The Russians have taken Konotop (pop. 84,787).

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces: So far, we have not heard much from this area.

5. Mariupol (pop: 431,859): Day 4 of the siege? This city of part of the Donetsk Oblast (province/county) and is on the route to Crimea. Mariupol is partly encircled and the power to the city is down. It appears they are going to keep it isolated and besiege it. The vice-mayor of this city said on 3 March that they can hold out for five days. I do not expect any significant relief columns.

6. Crimea & Kherson (pop: 283,649): Kherson is under Russian control. Yesterday Ukraine was claiming that there were still parts of the city under Ukranian control. Not sure if that is the case today. Mikolaiv (pop. 476,101), the city on the Southern Bug River just west of Kherson, is still under Ukranian control. The Russians appear to have gained control of a lot of the area just to the north of Crimea. This may be the end of their expansion in this area for now until they take Mariupol.

Update: Videos show Large Ukrainian protests in Kherson. This is in a city that is 20% Russian and 45% Russian speaking (in 2001).  

Russia has taken Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which is making everyone nervous. It is the largest nuclear power plant in Europe.

I will update this post during the day as I find more information. 

 

The Home Front: Count of detained protesters is claimed to be 7,359. Protests continue. At least 800 people have been detained in Belarus. 11,569 medical professionals have signed a letter protesting the war, using their names, title and affiliation. 

Exchange rate: 124.04 as of 9.07 AM EST. Not sure what the exchange rate will be if Russia ever opens its stock market. 

Price of oil (Brent crude): $118.05 (at 09:08 AM EST). The last report I saw, 52% of the Russian government revenue comes from oil (even though it makes up only 7% of their economy). There is a strong desire on the part of the west to bring this price down, as it undercuts their budget.

Casualties: The UN is reporting at least 351 civilians dead in the war. Ukraine is claiming over 2,000. Ukraine is reporting over 110 soldiers killed. Russia is claiming to have captured 572 soldiers (which is entirely believable). Russia reported yesterday 498 troops have been killed and 1,597 wounded. This is a 3.21-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio, which seems a little low (see link below). Ukraine is reporting almost 200 Russians captured. U.S. officials are claiming around 2,000 Russian soldiers killed and 3,000 captured. Have no idea of the validity of the U.S. figures but suspect the Russian casualty figures are understated (because they kind of always are).

Note: Wounded-To-Killed Ratios | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Also see Chapter 15 (Casualties) in War by Numbers.

The twitter account @oryxspioenko is reporting 99 Russian tanks have been lost by Russia based upon visual confirmation.

Update: @oryxspioenko is reporting 10 Russian aircraft shot down in the last 26 hours based upon videos of them being shot, been shot down, or their crews captured. This includes five Su-24s, Su-25s and Su-30 jets. Granted Russian has well over a thousand modern jet aircraft, but it does show that the Ukrainians do have some capability to defend their airspace. I gather as more Stingers and other surface-to-air missiles are received and deployed; this is going to become a more dangerous environment. It may serve to contain Russian air.

It is clear that at least 1,500 people have died in this conflict. It may get a lot a bloodier if there are direct assaults on Kiev and Kharkov.

There are people doing a better job of this on Twitter, including @RALee85 and @Oryxspioenkop and @caucasuswar, none of whom are known to me.

End of the War:  While Ukrainian and Russian delegations are talking, I don’t expect much from this in the short term. As Mariupol is supposedly three days away from falling, I suspect the Russians will not be interested in negotiating until they have taken it. It is part of the Donetsk province.

The attached map is from Wikipedia giving the “Military situation as of 5 March 2022.” View with caution.

The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 – Day 9 (ground actions)

There is really nothing surprisingly new today. I will put the updated sections of this daily post in italics.

No real change for like the fourth day in the row. Shelling and missile strikes in and around Kiev and Kharkov, but no fighting in the cities that we are aware of. Russia continues to occupy three cities, Berdyansk (pop. 107,928), Melitopol (pop. 150,768) and Kherson (pop. 283,649).

There was a sense that Russia was moving up forces on Kiev and Kharkov to either isolate or assault these cities. So far neither has happed at either city. I gather neither Kiev nor Kharkov are fully isolated. Not sure Russia is going to try to at this stage. They appear to be holding while working on Mariupol.

They have isolated Mariupol. The city has been without power since 1 March. I gather the Russian forces in that area are not overwhelming. Not sure they have the strength to take it or will try. Instead, it appears that they are going to try to starve it out. The vice-mayor said yesterday morning on CNN that they could hold out for five days. This is now a city far enough away from the other fighting grounds, that I assume there will no real attempt to relieve it. 

So, it does appear that this is the first “siege” of the campaign. Is the future of the Russian offensive? Is the next one at Kharkov? 

We are looking six major areas of operations right now.

1. Kiev

2. Odessa

3. Kharkov

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces
5. Mariupol
6. Crimean border/Kherson

Here is what I have heard/seen from open sources:

1. Kiev (pop: 2,962,180): The reinforced Russian Army is in the northern outskirts of Kiev (the Obolon district). They have also occupied the defunct nuclear power plant at Chernobyl and the large Antonov/Hostomel airport north of Kiev. They appear to be at the northern and eastern outskirts of the city, maybe four miles from the center of the city. The center of the city appears peaceful.

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky remains defiantly in Kiev. I gather the city is still open to the west and the south.

Chernigov (pop. 285,234) it located to the NNE of Kiev. The Russians have pushed columns past the city and down to Kiev, but the city remains under Ukrainian control. It is reported that all exits from the city have been mined.

2. Odessa (pop: 1,015,826): Appears to be safe and secure for now. Have seen reports yet again this morning of the locals building up the defenses there.

3. Kharkov (pop: 1,433,886): Kharkov is being shelled but it does not look like the Russians have tried to re-enter the city. Not sure it has been completely isolated.

Sumy (pop. 259,660) looks in danger of being isolated. The Russians have taken Konotop (pop. 84,787).

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces: So far, we have not heard much from this area.

5. Mariupol (pop: 431,859): Day 3 of the siege? This city of part of the Donetsk Oblast (province/county) and is on the route to Crimea. Mariupol is partly encircled and the power to the city is down. It appears they are going to keep it isolated and besiege it. The vice-mayor of this city said on 3 March that they can hold out for five days. I do not expect any significant relief columns.

6. Crimea & Kherson (pop: 283,649): Kherson is under Russian control. Yesterday Ukraine was claiming that there were still parts of the city under Ukranian control. Not sure if that is the case today. Mikolaiv (pop. 476,101), the city on the Southern Bug River just west of Kherson, is still under Ukranian control. The Russians appear to have gained control of a lot of the area just to the north of Crimea. This may be the end of their expansion in this area for now until they take Mariupol.

Russia has taken Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which is making everyone nervous. It is the largest nuclear power plant in Europe.

I will update this post during the day as I find more information. 

 

The Home Front: Count of detained protesters is claimed to be 7,359. Protests continue. At least 800 people have been detained in Belarus. 

Update: 11,569 medical professionals have signed a letter protesting the war, using their names, title and affiliation. 

Exchange rate (updated): 107.99 as of 10.42 AM EST. It was 124.75 rubles to a dollar when I checked it this morning, but this was a brief spike. Not sure what the exchange rate will be if Russia ever opens its stock market. 

Price of oil (Brent crude): $113.84 (at 09:03 EST). The last report I saw, 52% of the Russian government revenue comes from oil (even though it makes up only 7% of their economy). There is a strong desire on the part of the west to bring this price down, as it undercuts their budget.

Casualties: The UN is reporting at least 331 civilians dead in the war. Ukraine is claiming over 2,000. Ukraine is reporting over 110 soldiers killed. Russia is claiming to have captured 572 soldiers (which is entirely believable). Russia reported yesterday 498 troops have been killed and 1,597 wounded. This is a 3.21-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio, which seems a little low (see link below). Ukraine is reporting almost 200 Russians captured. U.S. officials are claiming around 2,000 Russian soldiers killed and 3,000 captured. Have no idea of the validity of the U.S. figures but suspect the Russian casualty figures are understated (because they kind of always are).

Update: Wounded-To-Killed Ratios | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Also see Chapter 15 (Casualties) in War by Numbers.

It is clear that at least 1,500 people have died in this conflict. It may get a lot a bloodier if there are direct assaults on Kiev and Kharkov.

There are people doing a better job of this on Twitter, including @RALee85 and @Oryxspioenkop and @caucasuswar, none of whom are known to me.

End of the War:  While Ukrainian and Russian delegations are talking, I don’t expect much from this in the short term. As Mariupol is supposedly four days away from falling, I suspect the Russians will not be interested in negotiating until they have taken it. It is part of the Donetsk province.

The attached map is from Wikipedia giving the “Military situation as of 4 March 2022.” View with caution.

 

The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 – Day 8 (ground actions)

No real change for like the third day in the row. Shelling and missile strikes in and around Kiev and Kharkov, but no fighting in the cities that we are aware of. Russia continues to occupy three cities, Berdyansk (pop. 107,928), Melitopol (pop. 150,768) and Kherson (pop. 283,649).

There was a sense that Russia was moving up forces on Kiev and Kharkov to either isolate or assault these cities. So far neither has happed at either city. I gather neither Kiev nor Kharkov are fully isolated. Not sure Russia is going to try to at this stage. They appear to be holding while working on Mariupol.

They have isolated Mariupol. The city has been without power for a day and half. I gather the Russian forces in that area are not overwhelming. Not sure they have the strength to take it or will try. Instead, it appears that they are going to try to starve it out. The vice-mayor said this morning on CNN that they could hold out for five days. This is now a city far enough away from the other fighting grounds, that I assume there will no real attempt to relieve it. 

So, it does appear that this is the first “siege” of the campaign. Is the future of the Russian offensive? Is the next one at Kharkov? 

We are looking six major areas of operations right now.

1. Kiev

2. Odessa

3. Kharkov

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces
5. Mariupol
6. Crimean border/Kherson

Here is what I have heard/seen from open sources:

1. Kiev (pop: 2,962,180): The reinforced Russian Army is in the northern outskirts of Kiev (the Obolon district). They have also occupied the defunct nuclear power plant at Chernobyl and the large Antonov/Hostomel airport north of Kiev. They appear to be at the northern and eastern outskirts of the city, maybe four miles from the center of the city. The center of the city appears peaceful.

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky remains defiantly in Kiev. I gather the city is still open to the west and the south.

Chernigov (pop. 285,234) it located to the NNE of Kiev. The Russians have pushed columns past the city and down to Kiev, but the city remains under Ukrainian control. It is reported that all exits from the city have been mined.

2. Odessa (pop: 1,015,826): Appears to be safe and secure for now. Have seen reports of the locals building up the defenses there.

3. Kharkov (pop: 1,433,886): Kharkov is being shelled but it does not look like the Russians have tried to re-enter the city. Not sure it has been completely isolated.

Sumy (pop. 259,660) looks in danger of being isolated. The Russians have taken Konotop (pop. 84,787).

4. The Donetsk and Lugansk provinces: So far, we have not heard much from this area.

5. Mariupol (pop: 431,859): Day 2 of the siege? This city of part of the Donetsk Oblast (province/county) and is on the route to Crimea. Mariupol is partly encircled and the power to the city is down. It appears they are going to keep it isolated and besiege it. The vice-mayor of this city is saying they can hold out for five days. I do not expect any significant relief columns.

6. Crimea & Kherson (pop: 283,649): Kherson is under Russian control. Yesterday Ukraine was claiming that there were still parts of the city under Ukranian control. Not sure if that is the case today. Mikolaiv (pop. 476,101), the city on the Southern Bug River just west of Kherson, is still under Ukranian control. The Russians appear to have gained control of a lot of the area just to the north of Crimea. This may be the end of their expansion in this area for now until they take Mariupol.

 

I will update this post during the day as I find more information. 

 

The Home Front: Count of detained protesters is claimed to be 7,359. Protests continue. At least 800 people have been detained in Belarus. 

Exchange rate: 109.3 rubles to a dollar. Not sure what the exchange rate will be if Russia ever opens its stock market. 

Price of oil (Brent crude): $108.70 (at 09:43 EST). The last report I saw, 52% of the Russian government revenue comes from oil (even though it makes up only 7% of their economy). There is a strong desire on the part of the west to bring this price down, as it undercuts their budget.

Casualties: The UN is reporting at least 752 civilians dead in the war. Ukraine is claiming over 2,000. Ukraine is reporting over 110 soldiers killed. Russia is claiming to have captured 572 soldiers (which is entirely believable). Russia reported yesterday 498 troops have been killed and 1,597 wounded. This is a 3.21-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio, which seems a little low (see link below). Ukraine is reporting almost 200 Russians captured. U.S. officials are claiming around 2,000 Russian soldiers killed and 3,000 captured. Have no idea of the validity of the U.S. figures but suspect the Russian casualty figures are understated (because they kind of always are).

Update: Wounded-To-Killed Ratios | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Also see Chapter 15 (Casualties) in War by Numbers.

It is clear that at least 1,500 people have died in this conflict. It may get a lot a bloodier if there are direct assaults on Kiev and Kharkov.

There are people doing a better job of this on Twitter, including @RALee85 and @Oryxspioenkop and @caucasuswar, none of whom are known to me.

End of the War:  While Ukrainian and Russian delegations are talking, I don’t expect much from this in the short term. As Mariupol is supposedly five days away from falling, I suspect the Russians will not be interested in negotiating until they have taken it. It is part of the Donetsk province.

The attached map is from Wikipedia giving the military situation recently but is not dated. I assume it is as of the afternoon (UTC) of today. View with caution.