Mystics & Statistics

The Revival of ISIL

I have already discussed events in Syria and Iraq a couple of times. See:

In Case We Forget | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

More on the revived ISIL | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

This still does not seem to be getting a lot of attention. The LA TImes (of all people) just put out an article worth looking at: https://www.yahoo.com/news/foiled-prison-break-brings-sense-163148079.html

A few highlights:

  1. Two trucks attacked the prison.
  2. The fight lasted a week. It ended Wednesday.
  3. U.S. and UK forces involved.
  4. 1,600 prisoners gave themselves up. How many escaped? There were something like 3,500 prisoners there.
    1. “Some 800 Islamic State prisoners managed to escape, Amaq said Saturday.” Amaq is a news outlet affiliated with the Islamic State.
  5. The SDF has 10,000 fighters?
  6. 30 SDF were killed.
  7. Perhaps as many as 10,000 ISIL fighters survived after 2019.
  8. “This is just completely off the charts compared to the scale of the operations ISIS has engaged in for well over two years.” – yes, exactly. This is why I am blogging about this.

Now, for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) on 27-29 September 2022 I have two conference rooms reserved, one is larger than the other. On day 2 of the conference, I do have the larger conference room (amusingly named the “Pike and Gallows Conference Center”) scheduled for “Analysis of Unconventional Warfare.” I do have a shortage of presentations on “unconventional warfare” (or COIN or Irregular Warfare or whatever is the terminology of the day). I do think the subject does need to be further examined, especially in light of how successful we were in Afghanistan.

P.S. ISIL, ISIS, Daesh and Islamic State are all the same people.

 

The Key to Victory: Machine Learning the Lessons of History

Robert L. Helmbold has published a new book (his first book) called The Key to Victory: Machine Learning the Lessons of History. Bob Helmbold was one of the senior analysts at CAA (Center of Army Analysis). It was published by MORS (Military Operations Research Society) with the help of Dean Hartley, formerly of Oakridge. This is Bob Helmbold’s first book, and at 91 years old, I hope to see a dozen more from him.

Bob Helmbold will be doing a virtual presentation on this on the second day (Wednesday the 28th of September) of the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC).

The book is only available through Barnes and Noble, not through Amazon. A link to it is here: The Key to Victory: Machine Learning the Lessons of History: by Robert Helmbold, Paperback | Barnes & Noble® (barnesandnoble.com)

 

Call for Presentations for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022

Want to make a call for presentations for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) in Tysons Corner in September 2022.

Anyone interested in making what they feel is a useful and relevant contribution should email me at LawrenceTDI@aol.com or call me at (703) 289-0007.

We do not require any formal paper or publication to support such a presentation. The presentations should be planned to be completed within 45 minutes, giving us time for 15 minutes of discussion.

We are looking for presentations from academia, think tanks, defense companies, the armed services or private individuals that are related to historical analysis of military affairs. I do have a bias towards quantitative historical analysis but reman open-minded towards anything of value.

I will probably be accepting requests for presentations up through the end of August, when for practical purposes I will need to finalize the schedule. We prefer the presentations to be in person, but we have arranged for at least one virtual presentation.

We do give a $60 discount to the fee for the conference to presenters. While it would be nice to cover people’s travel expenses and pay honorariums to the presenters, this is the first such conference and I am funding it out of my own pocket. I guess I could charge more for the conference to allow for this; but instead, I limited the charges just to cover the expenses of the conference rooms.

Schedule for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022

Below is the provisional schedule for the first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). We currently have set up two conference rooms for use and are issuing out a call for presentations. We do have 22 presentations scheduled by 16 speakers, including four or five by me (this could get tiresome). We have slots available for at least another 13 presentations. Each slot is an hour long, so planning for a 45-minute presentation and 15 minutes of discussion. 

If we get more requests than that, my bias to it either rent a third conference room at the facility or to reduce some presentations to 20 minutes with 10 minutes of discussion. This would allow us to do two presentations in an hour slot. We are probably not going to turn away any quality presentations.

Anyhow, the current schedule is:

Schedule: Pike and Gallows Conference Center

Updated: 14 December 2021

 

Day 1: Analysis of Conventional Combat

0900 – 0930    Introductory remarks (new)                Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

0930 – 1030    Studying Combat (old)                       Dr. Shawn Woodford (TDI)

1030 – 1130    War by Numbers (old)                        Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

1130 – 1230    How Lanchester modelling fits the historical data

                                                                                    Dr. Paul R. Syms (Dstl)

1230 – 1400    Lunch

1400 – 1500    Research fitting Lanchester Models to Battle Data

                                                                                    Dr. Tom Lucas (NPS)

1500 – 1600    How Important are Superior Numbers?                     

Dr. David Kirkpatrick (University College London) – virtual?

1600 – 1700    Killing Captain Hindsight: Quantifying Chance in Military History

Dr. Niall MacKay (University of York)        

 

Evening (1900):          Group Dinner – Rangos

 

Day 2: Analysis of Unconventional Warfare

0900 – 1000    Iraq, Data, Hypotheses and Afghanistan (old)

Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

1000 – 1100    Estimating War Deaths (in Iraq)

Dr. Michael Spagat (Royal Holloway University of London)

1100 – 1200    Infantry Support Weapon                   Joe Follansbee (Col., USA, ret.) – ?

1200 – 1300    Lunch

1300 – 1400   

1400 – 1500   

1500 – 1600

1600 – 1700   

 

Evening (1900):          Group Dinner – BJs

 

Day 3: Other Analysis of Warfare

0900 – 1000    The Application of the Scientific Method to Military History

Clinton Reilly (Computer Strategies. Australia)

1000 – 1100    The Decline of War Since 1950        

Dr. Michael Spagat (Royal Holloway University of London)

1100 – 1200    Quantitative Risk Assessment in Military Decisions

                                                                           Dr. Douglas A. Samuelson (InfoLogix, Inc.)

1200 – 1300    Lunch

1300 – 1400    HA support for our Directorate of Land Warfare

Dr. Paul L. Syms (Dstl)

1400 – 1500    Quantitative Analysis of History of Direct Fire Weapons

                                                                                    Dr. Alexander Kott (ARL)

1500 – 1600    The Criticality of Resurrecting TDI & TNDM

                                                                                    Joe Follansbee (Col., USA, ret.)

1600 – 1700    The Future of TDI and work of the conference (new)

Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

 

Evening:          Happy hour  – Rangos and/or Hawk and Griffin 

 

Schedule: Einstein Conference Room

 

Day 1: Poster Room

Opened at 0800

 

Afternoon Day 1: Analysis of Conventional Combat

1400 – 1500   

1500 – 1600

1600 – 1700

1700 – 1800

 

Day 2: Analysis of Conventional Combat

0900 – 1000    A Statistical Analysis of Land Battles: What is Associated with Winning?

                                                                                    Dr. Tom Lucas (NPS)

1000 – 1100    The Combat Assessment Technique               William Sayers

1100 – 1200    Machine Learning the Lessons of History      Dr. Robert Helmbold – virtual

1200 – 1300    Lunch

1300 – 1400    Data for Wargames (recent version) – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

1400 – 1500   

1500 – 1600   

1600 – 1700    Urban Warfare (old)                           Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI) – ?

 

Day 3: Other Analysis of Warfare

0900 – 1000    Midway and the Aleutians                  Dr. Michael Johnson (CNA)

1000 – 1100   

1100 – 1200   

1200 – 1300    Lunch

1300 – 1400   

 

Or Day 2 or 3: Combat Modeling Analysis

 

Or Day 2 or 3: Urban Warfare

 

Or Day 2 or 3: Air Combat Analysis

 

Or Day 2 or 3: Naval Combat Analysis

Hotels for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022

Dining and Hotels are at the expense of the attendees. The conference is at 1934 Old Gallows Road, Suite 350, Vienna, VA 22182. This is basically across the street by Tysons Corner Shopping mall and the Marriot Hotel on Route 7. It is right off the Route 7 exit from 495 (the Beltway). It is at the corner of Route 7 (Leesburg Pike) and Old Gallows Road.

The nearest hotel is the Marriott Tysons Corner at 8028 Leesburg Pike, Vienna, VA.

Nearby hotels include:

    1. Tysons Corner Marriot (nearest hotel)
      1. 8028 Leesburg Pike, Vienna, VA 22182, 1 (703) 734-3200
      2. Hotel in Tysons Corner, VA | Tysons Corner Marriott
    2. Hyatt Regency (very nice location – connect to Tyson Corner Shopping mall)
      1. 7901 Tysons One Place, McLean, VA, 22102, 1 (703) 893-1234
      2. https://www.hyatt.com/en-US/hotel/virginia/hyatt-regency-tysons-corner-center/iadrt
    3. Residence Inn Tysons
      1. 8400 Old Courthouse Road, Vienna, VA 22182, 1 (703) 917-0800
      2. Vienna, VA, Hotel Near Tysons Corner Mall | Residence Inn (marriott.com)
    4. Double Tree by Hilton McLean Tysons
      1. 1960 Chain Bridge Road, McLean, VA 22102, 1 (703) 893-2100
      2. DoubleTree Hotel Rooms and Suites Mclean, VA Tysons Corner (hilton.com)
    5. Courtyard Tysons McLean
      1. 1960A Chain Bridge Road, McLean, VA 22102, 1 (703) 790-0207
      2. Tysons Corner, VA Hotels | Courtyard Tysons McLean (marriott.com)
    6. Extended Stay America (very near)
      1. 8201 Old Courthouse Rd., Vienna, VA 22182, 1 (703) 356-6300
      2. Vienna, VA – Washington D.C. – Tysons Corner Hotel | Extended Stay America
    7. Hilton Garden Inn Tysons Corner
      1. 8301 Boone Blvd, Vienna, VA 22182, 1 (703) 760-9777
      2. Hotels in Tysons Corner – Hilton Garden Inn

I have not looked into setting up a block of rooms at the Marriott or Hyatt Regency but can do so if there is the interest.

The Hilton Garden Inn is where the leader and several of the Oath Keepers stayed on 5-6 January 2021. They have been charged with Seditious Conspiracy, see pages 20 & 21 and 30: Indictment from U.S. District Court

The Tysons Corner metro station is a 15-minute walk from the conference center or 4 minutes away by shuttle. 

The only challenge is Route 7 is a busy road, so if you have to cross on foot, please do so using the cross walk.

 

Cost of the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022

The cost of attendance to the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) on 27-29 September 2022 will be $150 for the entire conference. Dining and hotels are at the expense of the attendees. There will be facilities for virtual attendees and virtual presenters, but the focus of the conference will be in-person presentations and attendees.

Cost for attendance for a single day is $60. As the conference is near Tyson Corner metro (Silver line), then a number of people in the area may wish to attend for only one day.

We are offering a student discount of only $20 a day. That kind of only applies to real students. The conference costs are listed below: 

Costs:

  1. Conference fee = $150
  2. Attendance for one day = $60
  3. Presenters get a $60 discount.
  4. Student discounted price = $20 for a day.
  5. The Dupuy Institute discount = free
    1. Former employees of TDI/TNDA/DMSI/HERO
    2. Former members of the board of TDI

Payment: 

Please make payments to our paypal account SRichTDI@aol.com. 

We will also be able to take payments at the conference but prefer to get a good feel for the number attendees ahead of time. As this is the first time we have held such a conference, it would be nice to know if 40 people are attending or is it more like 160. The facilities we have rented are expandable, but we do need to make some plans before the conference.

The money for the conference is to pay for the conference facilities and will be placed in a separate bank account that will be answerable to an independent board. That board will be elected on the third day of the conference.

The First Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 in Tysons Corner, VA

Announcing the first Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September, 2022 in Tysons Corner, VA, USA. It is being hosted by The Dupuy Institute but is an open conference and we are looking for interested presenters and attendees from all corners of the historical analysis, operations research, and historical research communities.

Purpose:

To explore and promote the use of historical analysis in understanding military affairs.

It is built in part upon the work done by the HERO (Historical Evaluation Research Organization), TNDA (Trevor N. Dupuy and Associates), DMSI (Data Memory Systems Inc.), TMCI (The Military Conflict Institute), TDI (The Dupuy Institute) and elements of the Cornwallis Group. Similar in concept to the TMCI conferences.

First Conference:

Will be held 27-29 September 2022 at Tysons Corner, Virginia, near Washington, DC. It is in honor of the 60th anniversary of the Trevor N. Dupuy founded organizations and the 30th anniversary of The Dupuy Institute.

It is expected that the conference will include a wide range of attendees and presenters from private industry, academia, the U.S. government, the UK operational research and historical analysis community, and other interested parties.

The first day (Tuesday) of the conference with be focused on Analysis of Conventional Warfare, the second day (Wednesday) on Analysis of Unconventional Warfare and the third day (Thursday) with include Other Analysis of Warfare. Each presentation will be a maximum of 45 minutes with at least 15 minutes set aside for questions and discussion.

If demand is high enough, the conference will be broken into working groups as required.

Historical Analysis:

There is no clear definition as to what historical analysis consists of. For the purposes of this conference, it is that analysis of history that is focused on military affairs and is usually quantitative in approach and based upon a large number of cases (as opposed to being a case study). Historical Analysis is considered a proper subdiscipline of UK Operational Research. It is not considered part of Operations Research in the United States.

The UK Dstl defines historical analysis as “The use of mathematical, statistical, qualitative and other forms of analysis to understand historical engagements, operations, campaigns and conflicts for the purpose of providing impartial analysis and sensitive decision support to policy makers.”

The key elements of what The Dupuy Institute looks for in historical analysis is that it is 1) based upon history, with a strong bias towards primary sources (i.e. unit records), 2) it is a based upon a representative sample of cases, not just a case study of one or two cases, 3) it is analytical in approach, 4) it is using past real-world experience for analyzing and addressing a problem of today. Historical analysis is simply the analysis of real-world experiences.

There are people who are doing surveys of historical operations, basically doing multiple case studies to examine trends and patterns. While these are not based upon the large databases that The Dupuy Institute favors, these are efforts worth examining and such efforts will also be explored at our conferences.

Costs:

Cost of attendance will be $150 for the entire conference. Dining and hotels are at the expense of the attendees. There will be facilities for virtual attendees and virtual presenters, but the focus of the conference will be in-person presentations and attendees.

Call for Presentations:

We are making a call for papers and presentations at that time. We have already set up a preliminary list of presenters.

Long-term Goal:

The long-term goal is a create a series of periodic conferences for the purposes of presenting, examining and encouraging historical analysis of military affairs across a wide-range of issues.

For questions, suggestions, comments, or to volunteer for presentations, please contact:

Christopher A. Lawrence

The Dupuy Institute

(703) 289-0007

LawrenceTDI@aol.com

 

P.S. In subsequent posts I will be posting the rates for the conference, the list of nearby hotels, and a preliminary list of presenters.

More on the revived ISIL

I have still not seen anything on the U.S. news about the resurgent ISIL, but it is on the French news.

Heavy fighting continues for 3rd day to stop ISIS prison break attempt in Syria (yahoo.com)

A few points that get my attention:

  1. It appears that ISIL was executing prison guards.
  2. The U.S. is conducting airstrikes to support the SDF (Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces).
  3. U.S. forces in Bradley fighting vehicles were seen about 300 meters from the fighting location.
  4. The SDF say that 22 of their fighters have died and 17 injured. This is a lop-sided wounded-to-killed ratio, but note point one above (executed guards).
  5. The SDF claims that 45 ISIL members were killed and 110 escaped detainees were captured. How many escaped detainees were not captured? There were nearly 3,500 people held in the prison.
  6. Why is ISIL continued to fight after three days? Why not attack and withdraw? What are they gaining by continuing the fight?

 

P.S. I still don’t know why people call it ISIS? Even google translate gives the translation as “The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant.” Try it: الدولة الإسلامية في العراق والشام

So Is Russia going to actually attack Ukraine?

Based upon on the buzz lately in the news and comments by some Western politicians, it appears that is only a question of when, not if, that Russia is going to attack Ukraine. Yet, Russia is saying they are not going to attack. So… who is right?

It still doesn’t look to me like they are going to attack. This opinion is not based upon any inside knowledge or deep understanding of the situation. I only know what I read in the news. But a few things get my attention:

Force Ratios: First of all, Russia has amassed a 100K+ troops along the border, plus some forces are in a training exercise in Belarus. I gather the actual figure is on the low side of 100,000, vice being near 200,000. On the other hand, the Ukrainian Army, before mobilization is almost 200,000. So, is Russia really massing so it can attack while outnumbered?

Now, there are a few other factors in what is not that simple of a comparison. First of all, Russia can move more troops into the area(s) of interest on short notice. So that buildup of 100K+ could quickly turn into 300K+. If Russia had more than 300K troops in the area, I would become very concerned. But right now, they do not.

Weather: People are making noise like something will happen in February. It is freakin’ cold at that time of year. There is snow on the ground. Do they really want to attack then? I would wait until after the spring thaw, like the Germans did in 1941, 1942 and 1943, when you have a nice long summer for your campaign.

Warning: Surprise is a nice force multiplier. I have a chapter on the subject in my book War by Numbers. It is now no surprise if an attack comes. Furthermore, they even lack strategic surprise, so Ukraine has been able to lobby for more aid and has received more weapons. Why would Russia help their potential adversary get prepared, which is what has happened over the last couple of months? Ukraine is receiving weaponry and support that is probably would not have otherwise received. So, did Russia really choose to give Ukraine 2-3 months of warning to prepare before they attack them? This seems counter-intuitive.

Again, I go back to my original post, which is here:

Russian Invasions | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

I may be proven wrong come February and Russia suddenly comes swarming across the border to take the rest of “New Russia,” to take Kharkov (the second largest city in Ukraine) and to cross the Pripet marshes and Chernobyl/Pripyat area to threaten Kiev, but right now, I am not sure this is the real scenario.

I still think the threats are part of a larger negotiation strategy (although I don’t rule out that the Russia government has simply made a mistake).

In Case We Forget

This AP news report caught my attention: Islamic State gunmen mount deadly attacks in Syria, Iraq: dozens killed

The points that stand out to me:

1. “In Iraq, IS gunmen attacked an army barracks [at 3 a.m.] in a mountainous area north of Badhdad early Friday, killing 11 soldiers as they slept…”

 

2. “In Syria, more than 100 IS fighters using heavy machine guns and vehicles rigged with explosives attacked the Gweiran Prison in the northeastern city of Hassakeh…”

     a. “…seven U.S. backed Kurdish fighters were killed and several others were wounded. At least 23 IS attackers were also among the dead…”

     b. This is a company-sized attack by an insurgency “defeated” “in March 2019” !!!

     c. “The complex attack was mounted on Thursday evening…prisoners inside the facility rioted simultaneously…”

     d. “…more than 100 militants who escaped were arrested…” So, how many escaped ???

     e. “…at least 23 Kurdish security forces and prison guards were killed in the clashes, alongside 39 militants and five civilians…” (unconfirmed and unofficial)

    f. “…the inmates are mostly in control of the prison, while Kurdish forces attempt to wrestle it back…” (unconfirmed and unofficial).

 

Another recent article adds: https://news.yahoo.com/syria-kurds-hunt-down-jihadists-083912455.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

  1. “….killed at least 23 Kurdish secuirty forces and set ‘dozens of IS fighters’ free… (unconfirmed and unofficial)

And this is worth watching (VOA). It is only three and half minutes long: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V3P8iuKUT5g

  1. They note that there are more than10,000 Islamic State prisoners being held in Syria (at 2:45 see. “One of the most worrisome problems…”)