Category Historical Analysis Annual Conference

September’s Announcement for the Third HAAC, 8-10 October

The Third HAAC is occurring on 8 – 10 October in Tysons Corner. There are currently 43 presentations planned and two group discussions.

The current schedule is here (updated 17 September): September’s Revised Schedule for the Third Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 8 – 10 October 2024 – The Dupuy Institute

The conference is also posted on Eventbrite: Third Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) Tickets, Tue, Oct 8, 2024 at 9:00 AM | Eventbrite

They choose the picture, but it was kind of perfect for a Historical Analysis conference. You can pay for the conference through Eventbrite.

The cost of the conference is $150 for three days or $60 per day. It is a $60 discount if you present. There is a student discount of $20 a day for “real students.” There are now multiple ways to pay 1) though Paypal via SRichTDI@aol.com, 2) by calling (703) 289-0007 and paying by credit card, 3) our you can mail me a check (very retro), 4) or pay cash, 5) or pay through Eventbrite.

Cost is here: Cost of the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17 -19 October 2023 – The Dupuy Institute

Hotels are here: Hotels for the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17-19 October 2023 – The Dupuy Institute

Call for presentations is here: Call for Presentations for the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17-19 October 2023 – The Dupuy Institute

Conference description is here: The Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17-19 October 2023 in Tysons Corner, VA – The Dupuy Institute

The conference is at 1934 Old Gallows Road, Suite 350, Vienna, VA 22182. This is basically across the street by Tysons Corner Shopping mall and the Marriot Hotel on Route 7. It is right off the Route 7 exit from 495 (the Beltway). It is at the corner of Route 7 (Leesburg Pike) and Old Gallows Road. It is in the building above the restaurant called Rangos. Parking is in the parking garage next door to it.

We do have virtual presentations and we do accept virtual attendees. Conference works better if lots of people attend in person. People will connect via Zoom. We will send out Zoom links to all virtual attendees just before the conference starts.

We are slowly posting up videos from the previous conferences, we are halfway through the 2022 conference. They are here: The Dupuy Institute – YouTube

If there are any questions you can email me at LawrenceTDI@aol.com or call me at (703) 289-0007. Look forward to seeing you all there.

September’s Revised Schedule for the Third Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 8 – 10 October 2024

The Third HAAC is coming in six weeks and we are still getting more presentations. Now up to 45 (and 2 group discussions). Setting up a third conference room on Wednesday to handle the overflow. So will have a separate conference room on Tuesday for mostly Naval Warfare Analysis and a new third separate conference room on Wednesday for mostly Air Warfare Analysis.  Have revised the schedule to end the day at 1700 except for Tuesday. 

The current schedule is:

Schedule: Pike and Gallows Conference Center
Revised 26 September 2024

Day 1: Analysis of Conventional Combat

0900 – 0930 Introductory remarks – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

0930 – 1030 Studying Combat: The “Base of Sand” Problem – Dr. Shawn R. Woodford

1030 – 1130 Slouching Towards Wabash: The Withering of Historical Analysis in the American Profession of Arms – Ivan Torres (Major, U.S. Army, ret.)

1130 – 1230 Redux: Quantifying Warfare – Alexandru Filip (Canadian Center for Strategic Studies)

1230 – 1400 Lunch

1400 – 1500 Temporal and Geographic Patterns of Fatal Casualty Rates in WWI and WWII – Sasho Todorov, esquire

1500 – 1600 Validation Challenges in Wargaming: What’s Real Here? – Dr. Doug Samuelson (InfoLogix)

1600 – 1700 New Findings on Artillery Suppression – Dr. Dermot Rooney (Wapentakes) – virtual

1700 – 1800 Gun, Baby, Gun – Dr. Iain Overton (AOAV) – virtual

Evening (1900): Group Dinner – Rangos

Day 2: Analysis of Unconventional Warfare

0900 – 1000    Moscow vs Kiev: Institutional Autism in the German High Command – Dr. Robert Kirchubel (LtC, US Army, ret)

1000 – 1100    Close Combat Overmatch Weapons (SLAMMER) – Joe Follansbee (Col., USA, ret.)

1100 – 1200 Native American Wars and Conflicts, 1500-1900 – Dr. David Cuberes – virtual

1200 – 1300 Lunch

1300 – 1400   Iraq, Data, Hypotheses and Afghanistan (old) – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

1400 – 1500   The Gaza Death Numbers – Dr. Michael Spagat (Royal Holloway University) – virtual

1500 – 1600  The Islamic State of Khorasan: The Evolution of Terrorism – Dr. Christopher Davis

1600 – 1700   Group Discussion: The Next Middle East Wars

Evening (1900): Group Dinner – BJs

Day 3: Other Analysis of Warfare

0900 – 1000   Musicians of Mars – Michael McCarthy

1000 – 1100 Summoning the specter of “Beweglichkeit”: A critical analysis of the U.S. Army’s new FM 3-0 Operations and observed Ukrainian battlefield trends – Ivan Torres (Major, U.S. Army, ret.)

1100 – 1200 Ground Warfare in 2050: How it Looked in 2017 – Dr. Alexander Kott

1200 – 1300 Lunch

1300 – 1400 The Red Army’s Offensive Operations in Ukraine, 1943-44 – Dr. Richard Harrison

1400 – 1500 Critique of Western Wargames of NATO-WP Conflict – Walker Gargagliano

1500 – 1600 Capabilities of FPV drones in Ukraine: Revolution or Continuation of Historical Quantitative Trend? – Dr. Alexander Kott

1600 – 1700 Group Discussion: Russo-Ukrainian War

Evening: Happy hour – Rangos

Schedule: Einstein Conference Room

Day 1: Naval Warfare Analysis

0930 – 1030 A Naval Power Index: The U.S. Navy vs three challengers – Imperial Japan, USSR and PRC China – Geoffrey Clark

1030 – 1130 U-boats in the Atlantic: The Unseen and Unheard – Dr. John Magill – virtual

1130 – 1230 Beaches by the Numbers – Dr. Julian Spencer-Churchill (Concordia University, Quebec) – virtual

1230-1400   Lunch

1400 – 1500 Surveying and Quantifying Naval Warfare – Alexandru Filip

1500 – 1600 Temporal and Geographic Patterns of Fatal Casualty Rates in WWI and WWII (part 2 or overflow presentation) – Sasho Todorov, esquire

1600 – 1700   A Modest Proviso – National Guard Bureau Chief George Leach and his Role as Catalyst in Motorizing Artillery – Dr. Johannes Allert (Swansea University, Wales)

Day 2: Analysis of Conventional Combat

0900 – 1000   Designing Computer Based AI Wargaming Systems for Simulating and Investigating Historical Battles – Clinton Reilly (Computer Strategies, Australia) – virtual

1000 – 1100   Theory of Victory: The Ideas, Doctrine and Education of the U.S. Army from 1814-1941 – Dr. Michael Bonura (CGSC) – virtual

1100 – 1200   Winfield Scott: Architect of American Joint Warfare – LtC. Nathan A. Jennings (CGSC) – virtual

1200 – 1300 Lunch

1300 – 1400   Haiti: The Risks of a Failed State in the Western Hemisphere – Dr. Christopher Davis

1400 – 1500   Urban Warfare (old) – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

1500 – 1600    Making Military Decisions in Plateau Eras – Michael Benhamou (Director, OPEWI) – virtual

1600 – 1700   Salvation only in arms: A critical historical analysis of operational maneuver during the 1814 campaign in France – Ivan Torres (Major, U.S. Army, ret.)

Day 2: Air Warfare Analysis

0900 – 1000   Mass Egress after an IED Explosion: Lessons Learned about Validation – Doug Samuelson (InfoLogix)

1000 – 1100  Dogfight: Were US pilots in Korea really better than those in Vietnam? – Chip Sayers

1100 – 1200 The WW2 USAAF Strategic Bombing Campaign: Strategy and Operational Imperatives – Dr. Sorin Adam Matei & Dr. Robert Kirchubel (Purdue University) 

1200 – 1300 Lunch

1300 – 1400   VPAF Aces: As good as they claimed? – Chip Sayers

1400 – 1500 Data for Air Combat Modeling in Network Centric Warfare – Geoffrey Clark

1500 – 1600   Open

1600 – 1700   Open

Day 3: Other Analysis of Warfare

0900 – 1000    Urban Warfare: Myths and Reality – Dr. James Storr (UK) – virtual

1000 – 1100 The Red Army’s Plans for a Preemptive Attack in 1941 – Dr. Richard Harrison

1100 – 1200 Analyzing Barbarossa: By the Numbers – Dr. Robert Kirchubel & Sorin Adam Matei (Purdue)

1200 – 1300 Lunch

1300 – 1400   The Debate over French Armored Warfare Doctrine 1935 to 1940 – Dr. James Slaughter

1400 – 1500 Future of Maneuver Warfare – Dr. Amos Fox (Arizona State University) – virtual

1500 – 1600 Chernobyl compromised: The story of a Russian cyber attack – Joseph Weiss (Applied Control Solutions, LLC) – virtual

1600 – 1700 Political Science Pedagogy in Strategic Studies (A Contrast in Quantified History) – Dr. Julian Spencer-Churchill – virtual

 

Floating unscheduled presentation: Force Ratios – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)



Friday, October 11: Tour of a Civil War Battlefield – Antietam: bloodiest day of the U.S. Civil War (and in the Western Hemisphere?). – we will arrange transport there and back ($20 charge for tour).

See this link below for costs ($150), address, conference description, hotels, and call for presentations: Announcements for the Third HAAC, 8-10 October – The Dupuy Institute

Announcements for the Third HAAC, 8-10 October

The Third HAAC is occurring on 8 – 10 October in Tysons Corner. There are currently 38 presentations planned and two group discussions.

The current schedule is here (updated 15 August): August’s Revised Schedule for the Third Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 8 – 10 October 2024 – The Dupuy Institute

and here: HAAC 2024: Third Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 8-10 October 2024 – The Dupuy Institute

The conference is also posted on Eventbrite: Third Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) Tickets, Tue, Oct 8, 2024 at 9:00 AM | Eventbrite

They choose the picture, but it was kind of perfect for a Historical Analysis conference. You can pay for the conference through Eventbrite.

The cost of the conference is $150 for three days or $60 per day. It is a $60 discount if you present. There is a student discount of $20 a day for “real students.” There are now multiple ways to pay 1) though Paypal via SRichTDI@aol.com, 2) by calling (703) 289-0007 and paying by credit card, 3) our you can mail me a check (very retro), 4) or pay cash, 5) or pay through Eventbrite.

Cost is here: Cost of the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17 -19 October 2023 – The Dupuy Institute

Hotels are here: Hotels for the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17-19 October 2023 – The Dupuy Institute

Call for presentations is here: Call for Presentations for the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17-19 October 2023 – The Dupuy Institute

Conference description is here: The Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17-19 October 2023 in Tysons Corner, VA – The Dupuy Institute

The conference is at 1934 Old Gallows Road, Suite 350, Vienna, VA 22182. This is basically across the street by Tysons Corner Shopping mall and the Marriot Hotel on Route 7. It is right off the Route 7 exit from 495 (the Beltway). It is at the corner of Route 7 (Leesburg Pike) and Old Gallows Road. It is in the building above the restaurant called Rangos. Parking is in the parking garage next door to it.

We do have virtual presentations and we do accept virtual attendees. Conference works better if lots of people attend in person. People will connect via Zoom. We will send out Zoom links to all virtual attendees just before the conference starts.

We are slowly posting up videos from the previous conferences, we are halfway through the 2022 conference. They are here: The Dupuy Institute – YouTube

If there are any questions you can email me at LawrenceTDI@aol.com or call me at (703) 289-0007. Look forward to seeing you all there.

 

Video presentations from the second day of the first HAAC

We had some issues with zoom and videos on the second day of the conference, so do not have videos of half the presentations that day. The schedule for that first conference is here: Schedule for the Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 27-29 September 2022 – update 16 – The Dupuy Institute

The slides for the thirteen presentations given on the second day are here: Presentations from HAAC – Urban Warfare – The Dupuy Institute

The video on the “Statistical Analysis of Land Battles” is here, on our YouTube site:  Statistical Analysis of Land Battles: What is Associated with Winning? by Dr. Tom Lucas (NPS) (youtube.com)

 

 

Video presentations from the first day of the First HAAC

We are back to posting up videos of the first two HAAC conferences. What we have already posted from the first conference was copies of the slides for 31 presentations and videos of the first day of presentations.

The 31 presentations: Presentations from the first HAAC – all three days – The Dupuy Institute

Opening presentation and presentation on Studying Combat: Two videos posted to our YouTube site – The Dupuy Institute

Data for Wargames: Third video posted to our YouTube site – The Dupuy Institute

Fitting Lanchester Equations: Fitting Lanchester Equations – Video – The Dupuy Institute

How Important are Superior Numbers? Our first virtual presentation – How Important are Superior Numbers? – by Dr. David Kirkpatrick – The Dupuy Institute

Killing Captain Hindsight: Killing Captain Hindsight – Dr. Niall MacKay – The Dupuy Institute

Weaponising Historical Analysis: Weaponising Historical Analysis – Dr. James Storr – The Dupuy Institute

Understanding Dupuy: Understanding Dupuy – Dr. Shawn R. Woodford – The Dupuy Institute

Air Combat Analysis: Air Combat Analysis on the Eastern Front in 1944-45 – Daniel Horvath – The Dupuy Institute

We are able to post up videos now from the first two conferences is thanks to volunteer labor to review and edit them. More to come.

The Russians are continuing to advance in Ukraine

The war is really not stalemated. The Russians continue to advance in Ukraine. This is causing some concern.

In the Pokrovsk area, the Russians are advancing at a rate of up to a kilometer a day. They have advanced 8 kilometers over the last two weeks (according to @J_Jhelin). They are threatening the village of Prohres (which is 26 kilometers northwest of Donets and 22 kilometers east of Prokrovsk).

Prokrovsk is a town of 60, 127 (2022 estimate). The Prokrovsk raion is one of the eight raions of Donetsk Oblast (province). This raion was not part of the Donetsk Peoples Republic (DPR). According to the 2001 Ukrainian census, it was 86.8% Ukrainian and 11.3% Russian. 

Now, this is not an earthshaking offensive, but, repeated advances does put stress on the defenders. The real danger is if they could turn this advance into a breakthrough. Once units breakthrough, defender casualties go up significantly and the attacker’s rate of advance goes up. Let us look at some history (i.e. real combat examples) of casualties and advance rates.

In our various data bases, we ended up coding a number of our engagements by outcome. Outcome III is failed advance, outcome IV is attack advances, and outcome V is defender penetrated. So for example (from Table 8.6 in War by Numbers, page 65):  

Summation (195 engagements):

Outcome              Failed       Advances   Penetrated
                               III             IV                  V

Number of Engagements:

                              54                71                33

Attacker percent casualties per day:

                             2.98            1.20             0.83

Defender percent casualties per day:

                            2.62             2.96            6.40

Now, this is mostly division-level engagements but the pattern is clear. When the attack fails the attacker losses are more than the defender, especially as the attacker usually outnumbers the defender. When the attack advances, losses are roughly equal (1.20 vs 2.96%, except the attacker usually outnumbers the defender). When a penetration is achieved, the defender clearly losses more than the attacker, and a significant percent of those losses are captured in action (47.20%). The 195 engagements come from the Italian Campaign (75 engagements 1943-44), Ardennes Campaign (71 engagements 1944-45) and Kursk (49 engagements).

The same pattern exists for post-war engagements (see Table 8.7, War by Numbers, page 67).

Post-World War II (61 engagements):

Outcome              Failed      Advances    Penetrated
                               III            IV                  V

Number of Engagements:

                              14               8                 33

Attacker percent casualties per day:

                             3.20            1.60             1.36

Defender percent casualties per day:

                            2.80             4.83           15.10

Now, we recently put together a similar table using our Campaign Database (CaDB). These are army-level operations up to 60 days in length. This was presented at the 2nd HAAC, in Norway and at the latest HADSS conference. I have not written them up in a book yet (i.e. More War by Numbers). There are 94 cases coded:

Outcome            III      IV        V

  Cases                 10       29         21

  Force Ratios    1.80    2.69     2.75

  Loss Ratios      1.66    1.51      0.64

Note the same loss pattern exists here.

Now, I do have a chapter on Advance Rates in War by Numbers. Below is a repeat of part of Table 14.1, page 177. It is broken out by campaign. The numbers given are kilometers opposed advance per day for division-level engagements.

Outcome                    III        IV       V

Italian Campaign     0.74     1.76     2.53

Ardennes                   0.45     3.71     5.00

Kursk                         0.58      5.18   11.43 

So……

  1. The advance rates in Ukraine are pretty much in line with outcome III and IV engagements. 
  2. The advance rates are fairly low compared to the other cases we have.
  3. Will discuss casualties later.

This does not look like the next Brusilov Offensive (June – September 1916).

August’s Revised Schedule for the Third Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 8 – 10 October 2024

The third HAAC is coming up in less than three months. The current schedule is:

Schedule: Pike and Gallows Conference Center

Updated: revised 31 August 2024

 

Day 1: Analysis of Conventional Combat

0900 – 0930   Introductory remarks – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

0930 – 1030   Studying Combat: The “Base of Sand” Problem – Dr. Shawn R. Woodford

1030 – 1130   Slouching Towards Wabash: The Withering of Historical Analysis in the American Profession of Arms – Ivan Torres (Major, U.S. Army, ret.)

1130 – 1230   Redux: Quantifying Warfare – Alexandru Filip (Canadian Center for Strategic Studies)

1230 – 1400   Lunch

1400 – 1500   Temporal and Geographic Patterns of Fatal Casualty Rates in WWI and WWII – Sasho Todorov, esquire  

1500 – 1600   Validation Challenges in Wargaming: What’s Real Here? – Dr. Doug Samuelson (InfoLogix)

1600 – 1700   New Findings on Artillery Suppression – Dr. Dermot Rooney (Wapentakes) – virtual

1700 – 1800    Gun, Baby, Gun – Dr. Iain Overton (AOAV) – virtual

Evening (1900):   Group Dinner – Rangos

 

Day 2: Analysis of Unconventional Warfare

0900 – 1000   Iraq, Data, Hypotheses and Afghanistan (old) – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

1000 – 1100   Haiti: The Risks of a Failed State in the Western Hemisphere – Dr. Christopher Davis

1100 – 1200   Native American Wars and Conflicts, 1500-1900 – Dr. David Cuberes

1200 – 1300   Lunch

1300 – 1400   Close Combat Overmatch Weapons (SLAMMER) – Joe Follansbee (Col., USA, ret.)

1400 – 1500   The Islamic State of Khorasan: The Evolution of Terrorism – Dr. Christopher Davis

1500 – 1600   The Gaza Death Numbers – Dr. Michael Spagat (Royal Holloway University)

1600 – 1700   Group Discussion: The Next Middle East Wars

1700 – 1800   The Impact of Horses on Native Americans – Dr. David Cuberes

Evening (1900):   Group Dinner – BJs

 

Day 3: Other Analysis of Warfare

0900 – 1000   The Debate over French Armored Warfare Doctrine 1935 to 1940 – Dr. James Slaughter

1000 – 1100   Summoning the specter of “Beweglichkeit”: A critical analysis of the U.S. Army’s new FM 3-0 Operations and observed Ukrainian battlefield trends – Ivan Torres (Major, U.S. Army, ret.)

1100 – 1200   Ground Warfare in 2050: How it Looked in 2017 – Dr. Alexander Kott

1200 – 1300   Lunch

1300 – 1400   The Red Army’s Offensive Operations in Ukraine, 1943-44 – Dr. Richard Harrison

1400 – 1500   Critique of Western Wargames of NATO-WP Conflict – Walker Gargagliano

1500 – 1600   Capabilities of FPV drones in Ukraine: Revolution or Continuation of Historical Quantitative Trend? – Dr. Alexander Kott 

1600 – 1700   Group Discussion: Russo-Ukrainian War

Evening:   Happy hour – Rangos 

 

Schedule: Einstein Conference Room

 Morning Day 1: Naval Warfare Analysis

0930 – 1030   A Naval Power Index: The U.S. Navy vs three challengers – Imperial Japan, USSR and PRC China – Geoffrey Clark

1030 – 1130   U-boats in the Atlantic: The Unseen and Unheard – Dr. John Magill – virtual

1130 – 1230    The WW2 USAFF Strategic Bombing Campaign: Strategy and Operational Imperatives – Dr. Sorin Adam Matei (Purdue University)

Afternoon Day 1: Air Warfare Analysis

1400 – 1500   Dogfight: Were US pilots in Korea really better than those in Vietnam?  – Chip Sayers

1500 – 1600   Temporal and Geographic Patterns of Fatal Casualty Rates in WWI and WWII (part 2 or overflow presentation) – Sasho Todorov, esquire 

1600 – 1700  “VPAF Aces:  As good as they claimed? – Chip Sayers

1700 – 1800   Reserved

 

Day 2: Analysis of Conventional Combat – mostly virtual

0900 – 1000   Designing Computer Based AI Wargaming Systems for Simulating and Investigating Historical Battles – Clinton Reilly (Computer Strategies, Australia) – virtual

1000 – 1100   Beaches by the Numbers – Dr. Julian Spencer-Churchill (Concordia University, Quebec) – virtual

1100 – 1200   Surveying and Quantifying Naval Warfare – Alexandru Filip

1200 – 1300   Lunch

1300 – 1400   Urban Warfare: Myths and Reality – Dr. James Storr (UK) – virtual

1400 – 1500   Urban Warfare (old) – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

1500 – 1600   Salvation only in arms: A critical historical analysis of operational maneuver during the 1814 campaign in France – Ivan Torres (Major, U.S. Army, ret.)

1600 – 1700   Theory of Victory: The Ideas, Doctrine and Education of the U.S. Army from 1814-1941 – Dr. Michael Bonura (CGSC) – virtual

1700 – 1800   Winfield Scott: Architect of American Joint Warfare – LtC. Nathan A. Jennings (CGSC) – virtual 

 

Day 3: Other Analysis of Warfare

0900 – 1000   Force Ratios – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

1000 – 1100   The Red Army’s Plans for a Preemptive Attack in 1941 – Dr. Richard Harrison

1100 – 1200   Analyzing Barbarossa: By the Numbers – Dr. Robert Kirchubel (LtC, US Army, ret) 

1200 – 1300   Lunch

1300 – 1400   Future of Maneuver Warfare – Dr. Amos Fox (Arizona State University) – virtual

1400 – 1500   Chernobyl compromised: The story of a Russian cyber attack – Joseph Weiss (Applied Control Solutions, LLC) – virtual

1500 – 1600   Mass Egress after an IED Explosion: Lessons Learned about Validation – Doug Samuelson (InfoLogix)

1600 – 1700   Political Science Pedagogy in Strategic Studies (A Contrast in Quantified History) – Dr. Julian Spencer-Churchill – virtual

 

Friday, October 11: Tour of a Civil War Battlefield – Antietam: bloodiest day of the U.S. Civil War (and in the Western Hemisphere?). –  we will arrange transport there and back ($20 charge for tour).

July’s Revised Schedule for the Third Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 8 – 10 October 2024

Had an informative, interesting and enjoyable visit to York, UK to attend the Niall MacKay organized HADSS: Final Schedule for HADSS 2024 – The Dupuy Institute

Good stuff and a wonderful city. My understanding is that the next HADSS will be held there in 2026.

Meanwhile, the third HAAC is coming up in less than three months. The current schedule is:

Schedule: Pike and Gallows Conference Center

Updated: revised 23 July 2024

 

Day 1: Analysis of Conventional Combat

0900 – 0930   Introductory remarks – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

0930 – 1030   Studying Combat: The “Base of Sand” Problem – Dr. Shawn R. Woodford

1030 – 1130   Slouching Towards Wabash: The Withering of Historical Analysis in the American Profession of Arms – Ivan Torres (Major, U.S. Army, ret.)

1130 – 1230   Redux: Quantifying Warfare – Alexandru Filip (Canadian Center for Strategic Studies)

1230 – 1400   Lunch

1400 – 1500   Temporal and Geographic Patterns of Fatal Casualty Rates in WWI and WWII – Sasho Todorov, esquire  

1500 – 1600   Validation Challenges in Wargaming: What’s Real Here? – Dr. Doug Samuelson (InfoLogix)

1600 – 1700   open

 

Evening (1900):   Group Dinner – Rangos

 

Day 2: Analysis of Unconventional Warfare

0900 – 1000   Iraq, Data, Hypotheses and Afghanistan (old) – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

1000 – 1100   Haiti: The Risks of a Failed State in the Western Hemisphere – Dr. Christopher Davis

1100 – 1200   Native American Wars and Conflicts, 1500-1900 – Dr. David Cuberes

1200 – 1300   Lunch

1300 – 1400   The Islamic State of Khorasan: The Evolution of Terrorism – Dr. Christopher Davis

1400 – 1500   The Gaza Death Numbers – Dr. Michael Spagat (Royal Holloway University)

1500 – 1600   Open

1600 – 1700   Group Discussion: The Next Middle East Wars

 

Evening (1900):   Group Dinner – BJs

 

Day 3: Other Analysis of Warfare

0900 – 1000   Close Combat Overmatch Weapons (SLAMMER) – Joe Follansbee (Col., USA, ret.)

1000 – 1100   The Debate over French Armored Warfare Doctrine 1935 to 1940 – Dr. James Slaughter

1100 – 1200   Ground Warfare in 2050: How it Looked in 2017 – Dr. Alexander Kott

1200 – 1300   Lunch

1300 – 1400   The Red Army’s Offensive Operations in Ukraine, 1943-44 – Dr. Richard Harrison

1400 – 1500   Critique of Western Wargames of NATO-WP Conflict – Walker Gargagliano

1500 – 1600   Capabilities of FPV drones in Ukraine: Revolution or Continuation of Historical Quantitative Trend? – Dr. Alexander Kott 

1600 – 1700   Group Discussion: Russo-Ukrainian War

 

Evening:   Happy hour – Rangos 

 

 

Schedule: Einstein Conference Room

 

Day 1: Poster and Book Room

Opened at 0800

 

Afternoon Day 1: Air Warfare Analysis

1400 – 1500   open

1500 – 1600   Temporal and Geographic Patterns of Fatal Casualty Rates in WWI and WWII (part 2 or overflow presentation) – Sasho Todorov, esquire 

1600 – 1700   open

 

Day 2: Analysis of Conventional Combat – mostly virtual

0900 – 1000   Designing Computer Based AI Wargaming Systems for Simulating and Investigating Historical Battles – Clinton Reilly (Computer Strategies, Australia) – virtual

1000 – 1100   Beaches by the Numbers – Dr. Julian Spencer-Churchill (Concordia University, Quebec) – virtual

1100 – 1200   Surveying and Quantifying Naval Warfare – Alexandru Filip

1200 – 1300   Lunch

1300 – 1400   Urban Warfare: Myths and Reality – Dr. James Storr (UK) – virtual

1400 – 1500   Urban Warfare (old) – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

1500 – 1600   New Findings on Artillery Suppression – Dr. Dermot Rooney (Wapentakes) – virtual

1600 – 1700   Winfield Scott: Architect of American Joint Warfare (LtC. Nathan A. Jennings) – virtual 

 

Day 3: Other Analysis of Warfare

0900 – 1000   The Impact of Horses on Native Americans – Dr. David Cuberes

1000 – 1100   The Red Army’s Plans for a Preemptive Attack in 1941 – Dr. Richard Harrison

1100 – 1200   Mass Egress after an IED Explosion: Lessons Learned about Validation – Doug Samuelson (InfoLogix)

1200 – 1300   Lunch    

1300 – 1400   Political Science Pedagogy in Strategic Studies (A Contrast in Quantified History) – Dr. Julian Spencer-Churchill – virtual

1400 – 1500   open

1500 – 1600   open

1600 – 1700   open

 

Friday, October 11: Tour of a Civil War Battlefield – Antietam: bloodiest day of the U.S. Civil War (and in the Western Hemisphere?). –  we will arrange transport there and back ($20 charge for tour).

Final Schedule for HADSS 2024

The Historical Analysis for Defence and Security Symposium (HADSS) is scheduled for 8-11 July at the University of York. The final schedule for the conference is here:

HADSS_programme_final

Description of the conference is here Historical Analysis for Defence and Security Symposium | ICMS – International Centre for Mathematical Sciences. 

York seems like a really cool city. I will be at the conference (and presenting). It does appear that registration is closed and they have capped attendance at 45 people.

Our third Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) is on 8-10 October near Washington, D.C. We are still looking for more presenters and attendees:  

Next Revised Schedule for the Third Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 8 – 10 October 2024 – The Dupuy Institute

Army- and Division-level force ratio posts

I did five posts on analyzing force ratios using the campaign database. They are here:

Analysis for Force Ratios using the Campaign Data Base (CaDB) – The Dupuy Institute

Analysis for Force Ratios using the Campaign Data Base (CaDB) – continued – The Dupuy Institute

Analysis of Force Ratios using the Campaign Data Base (CaDB) – second continuation – The Dupuy Institute

Analysis of Force Ratios using the Campaign Data Base (CaDB) – third continuation – The Dupuy Institute

Analysis of Force Ratios using the Campaign Data Base (CaDB) – fourth and final continuation – The Dupuy Institute

 

I think this is actually kind of a big deal, and will be presenting it at HADSS in July: Updated Schedule for HADSS 2024 – The Dupuy Institute and at HAAC in October:  Next Revised Schedule for the Third Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 8 – 10 October 2024 – The Dupuy Institute

 

Now, as part of that presentation, I do compare it to the division-level engagements. I have posted about this before. They are here:

The U.S. Army Three-to-One Rule versus the 752 Case Division-level Data Base 1904-1991 – The Dupuy Institute

The World War I Cases from the Division-level Database – The Dupuy Institute

The World War II Cases from the Division-level Database – The Dupuy Institute

Post-World War II Cases from the Division-level Database – The Dupuy Institute

Force Ratios at Kharkov and Kursk, 1943 – The Dupuy Institute

Force Ratios in the Arab-Israeli Wars (1956-1973) – The Dupuy Institute

 

And a summary of force ratios and 3-to-1 rule posts:

Summation of Human Factors and Force Ratio posts – The Dupuy Institute

Summation of Force Ratio Posts – The Dupuy Institute

JSTOR, Trevor Dupuy, Combat Data and the 3:1 Rule – The Dupuy Institute

 

And more stuff:

Force Ratios and CRTs – The Dupuy Institute

 

and most recently here: 

The 3-to-1 rule and the War in Ukraine – The Dupuy Institute

 

And in the first few chapters of my book War by Numbers.

 

Anyhow, we have discussed force ratios at the division-level and have now addressed them at the army-level by using the campaign databases. We do have the ability to look at them at Battalion and Company-level, which I will probably do at some point in the future. We do have a couple of databases to address this. They are no where near as robust as our division-level data base (752 cases) but as they are the only thing out there like that, they will have to do.

Battalion and Company Level Data Bases – The Dupuy Institute

At some point this will all probably be assembled in my future book More War by Numbers, which is half-written. Probably won’t get serious about that book until 2025.