Excellence in Historical Research and Analysis
Excellence in Historical Research and Analysis
This is a follow-up to this post:
Here is the graph for the number of cases in South Korea (as of 9:12:31 AM):
In comparison, here is the United States, Spain and Italy:
In contrast here are the other three East Asian nations, Japan, Taiwan and Vietnam:
And here is China, although there is some concern about the accuracy of their statistics:
This article is interesting: ‘Protective bubbles’: How 2 Army generals stopped the spread of coronavirus among their soldiers
The commander in South Korea, General Robert “Abe” Abrams is the son of General Creighton W. Abrams,. Jr. He is the brother of General John N. Abrams. General Creighton Abrams was the commander of the tank battalion that relieved Bastogne on 26 December 1944. He later replaced Westmoreland as commander in Vietnam. There is a tank named after him.
Picture is from this article: https://warfarehistorynetwork.com/2017/05/26/colonel-creighton-abrams-at-the-battle-of-the-bulge/
South Korea, with an estimated 2020 population of 51,780,5798 million, has had 9,976 cases of coronavirus (as of 10:00:04 AM). They have tested more than 300,000 people and have had 169 deaths. Of those 9,976 cases, 5,828 are reported as recovered leaving them with 3,979 active cases. Outside of China, there are currently twelve countries with more cases than South Korea. They are United States (population 330 million), Italy ( 60 million), Spain (47 million), Germany (83 million), France, (67 million), Iran (83 million), United Kingdom (66 million), Switzerland, (9 million), Turkey (83 million), Netherlands (17 million) and Austria (9 million). Of those twelve countries, only Austria was less deaths than South Korea (although not per capita). There are an additional five countries with more deaths than South Korea (Belgium, Sweden, Brazil, Portugal and Indonesia). It is clear that South Korea has done a better job at containing the virus than at least 17 other countries.
This appears to be the case for many of the countries bordering China. Japan has 2,384 cases and 57 deaths (population 126 million), Taiwan has 339 cases and 5 deaths (population 23 million), and Vietnam has 227 cases and no reported deaths (population 96 million). Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are three of the five major trading partners of China (the others being the United States and the European Union). They are the closest to the source of the disease, were among the earliest to catch it, and yet they have certainly mitigated the results of the disease, and might even yet contain it. All three countries are democracies. Many other countries have had a longer warning period and do not seem to have done as well at containing the virus.
Is the difference leadership? Is the difference the responsive of the government and their health care system? What has South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and Vietnam done that the United States, Italy, Spain, Iran and so forth have not done?
As I live and work in Northern Virginia, just a few miles outside of Washington, DC, the local situation is of interest to me, as I suspect it is to a few other readers. Again, all the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website (which I gather is also maintained in the DC area), as of 10:51:42 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE
The DC area is rather sprawling, with over 5 million people scattered across DC, Virginia and Maryland. Let me list the presence of virus by location. Population is the 2018 estimate from Wikipedia:
Total…………………………5,365,425….1,941…….23
The Mortality Rate for the area is 1.18%. The population known to be infect is 0.04%. or one confirmed case for every 2,764 people. From my observations, most people are doing a reasonable job of self isolating. Probably easier to do in this more spread out suburban area than in some cities.
The Washington DC statistic area according to some also includes Warren, Clarke, Fauquier, and Spotsylvania Counties in Virginia, Jefferson County in West Virginia, Frederick, Howard, Charles and Calvert Counties in Maryland. I rarely go to these places.
Well, the coronavirus is now the lead story of every news service. There are a lot of real experts now on TV talking about this. Not sure how much longer I will continue these coronavirus updates. But, since my last post the number of cases is up dramatically, sadly so are the number of deaths, and of significance, so is the mortality rate. In countries that previously had low mortality rates, like Germany, they have now risen to above 1%.
China continues to report very few new cases. On 11 March they reported 80.9K cases. Twenty days later they are at 82.3K cases. So it is only growing by around 70 cases a day. The Wednesday before last it was 81,102, last Tuesday it was 81,588 now it is 82,276. This is 1,174 new reported cases in thirteen days or 90 cases a day. This is not quite contained. The same story with S. Korea (and North Korea has no cases?). If one relaxes some of the restrictions for the sake of getting the economy working again, what happens? I understand that Hong Kong has had this experience.
Forty-four countries around the world with over a thousand reported cases. Last week it was 26 countries, the week before that it was 16 countries. A few other entities of interest to this author that have less than a thousand cases so far:
Part of my concern is the spread of the disease across the Middle East and Central Asia. There are a number of countries in the region still at war, including Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq and Yemen. How does one contain a virus in a country at war? Do they then serve as a vector for the rest of the countries in the region?
Data is from Johns Hopkins CSSE 3/24/20 as of 10:01.43 AM EST. The data page is no longer showing count of less then 3 deaths in their tabulation, but shows it on their map. It makes it harder to count all the deaths in the United States as they are reported by country. The United States now has over 3,000 deaths. It is here: Johns Hopkins CSSE
A few more observations:
There is now a single line on this graph, which represents the entire world. The “Total Recovered” is reported at 172,869 out of 809,608 cases and 39,545 deaths (as of 11.11.10 AM).
Well, this situation is now devastating and depressing. The coronavirus is now spreading across the world rapidly and does not appear to be under control in many countries. The curve has turned upwards sharply since early March. More than one national leader needs to be held responsible for their failure to properly and quickly respond to this. There was warning.
China continues to report very few new cases. On 11 March they had 80.9K cases. Fourteen days later they are at 81.6K cases. So it is only growing by around 50 cases a day. Last Wednesday morning it was 81,102, and it is now 81,588. This is 486 cases in six days or 81 cases a day. This is not quite contained. The same story with S. Korea (and North Korea has no cases?). If one relaxes some of the restrictions for the sake of getting the economy working again, what happens? I understand that Hong Kong has had this experience.
Twenty-six countries around the world with over a thousand cases. Below is a list of some of the rest. Almost all of them will probably be over a thousand cases soon. These figures are heavily influenced by the degree of testing.
Part of my concern is the spread of the disease across the Middle East and Central Asia. There are a number of countries in the region still at war, including Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq and Yemen. How does one contain a virus in a country at war? Do they then serve as a vector for the rest of the countries in the region?
Data is from Johns Hopkins CSSE 3/24/20 as of 9:54.39 AM EST. It is here: Johns Hopkins CSSE
A few more observations:
There is now a single line on this graph, which represents the entire world. The “Total Recovered” is reported at 103,317 out of 395,647 cases (and 17,241 deaths).
The Military Conflict Institute (TMCI) decided after a decade of existence that maybe the best use of their time was to write some papers and reports. So this they did over the years, all volunteer (unfunded) work done by some of the “graybeards” of the operations research and combat analysis community.
These three reports are provided here and will be available for as long as this blog exists:
First is called Anatomy of a Combat Model and was written in May 1995 by Lawrence J. Low. It was “prepared as part of a long-term contribution to the field.” It is 81 pages.:
Anatomy of a Combat Model (TMCI)
The second paper was from 1997 and is called A Concise Theory of Combat. It was written by Edmund L. DuBois, Wayne P. Hughes, Jr., and Lawrence J. Low “…in collaboration with The Military Conflict Institute.” It is 172 pages.
A Concise Theory of Combat (TMCI)
The third paper was from 2013 and is called A Philosophy of War Its primary authors were Frank Benedict, Rosser Bobbitt, Ted DuBois, Chuck Hawkins, John Honig, Wayne Hughes, John McIver, Roger Mickelson, Clayton Newell, Itzhak Ravid, Russ Vane, Gene Visco and Greg Wilcox. It is 245 pages.
I would also argue that the books Understanding War and Attrition by Trevor Dupuy and my books America’s Modern Wars and War by Numbers are also very much in line with the original mission of TMCI , which Trevor Dupuy co-founded.
Well, situation keeps getting worse, and in a lot of different places in the world. The number of cases outside of China is growing rapidly and does not appear to be slowing down. China continues to report very few new cases. On 11 March they had 80.9K cases. Ten day later they are at 81.3K cases. So it is only growing by less than 40 cases a day. Still. Wednesday morning it was 81,102, and it is now 81,250. This is 148 cases in two days. This is not quite contained. If one relaxes some of the restrictions for the sake of getting the economy working again, what happens?
Sixteen countries around the world with over a thousand cases. Below is a list of some of the rest. They are mostly European but countries from all over the world are joining the list. Not sure how much more extensive testing influences these figures.
Part of my concern is the spread of the disease across the Middle East and Central Asia. There are a number of countries in the region still at war, including Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq. How does one contain a virus in a country at war? Do they then serve as a vector for the rest of the countries in the region?
Data is from Johns Hopkins CSSE 3/18/20 as of 9:43.03 AM EST. It was only updated twice while I was writing this. It is here: Johns Hopkins CSSE
A few more observations:
On the graph at the top of this post, the new top line is the number of coronavirus cases in “other locations” (meaning outside of mainland China). The original top line is the number of coronavirus cases in Mainland China (People’s Republic of China). The next line is the “Total Recovered” which is reported at 86,036 out of 246,276 cases (and 10,038 deaths). It has now just passed the Mainland China line.
Sadly, there is plenty still to blog about with the coronavirus. The picture is changing enough from day-to-day that these updates are getting more frequent. At this point multiple countries have been shut down. They are now starting to shut down cities in the U.S. Yesterday Steven Mnuchin, our treasury secretary, was talking about possibly 20% unemployment. This thing is going to have a big impact and it is affecting everything (including national security issues and future defense spending). I will be blogging about this for a while.
China continues to report very few new cases. For the last eight days they have consistently reported 80.9K to 81K cases. So it is only growing by a few dozen cases a day. Friday it was 80,945, Saturday it was 80,976, and as of Sunday night it was 81,020 and this morning (Wed) it is 81,102. This is 157 new cases in the last four or five days or less than 40 cases a day. So, almost under control, but not quite. If one relaxes some of the restrictions for the sake of getting the economy working again, what happens?
Sixteen countries around the world with over a thousand cases. Below is a list of some of the rest. They are mostly European but countries from all over the world are joining the list. Not sure how much more extensive testing influences these figures.
Part of my concern is the spread of the disease across the Middle East and Central Asia. There are a number of countries in the region still at war, including Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq. How does one contain a virus in a country at war? Do they then serve as a vector for the rest of the countries in the region?
Data is from Johns Hopkins CSSE 3/18/20 as of 9:33.12 AM EST. It was updated thrice while I was writing this. It is here: Johns Hopkins CSSE
A few more observations:
On the graph at the top of this post, the new top line is the number of coronavirus cases in “other locations” (meaning outside of mainland China). The original top line is the number of coronavirus cases in Mainland China (People’s Republic of China). The next line is the “Total Recovered” which is reported at 82,107 out of 204,255 cases (and 8,243 deaths). It has now just passed the Mainland China line.
We do have the two reports prepared by Dr. Alexander Kott of the Army Research Laboratory (ARL) here. One is already been linked to before and is available on-line. The other has not been released yet:
Initial Data Sets for Explorations in Long-Range Forecasting of Military Technologies (May 2019): ARL-SR-0417
An Extended Data Set for Explorations in Long-Range Forecasting of Military Technologies (Jan 2020): ARL-SR-0423
See: