Mystics & Statistics

Coronavirus Mortality Rates update 6

Doing a Friday the 13th update even though nothing has drastically changed other than my kid’s school has been closed for the day. It is not under control in a number of countries, in particular Italy, Iran and the United States. If the reporting is correct, China does seem to have mostly contained the virus, and this may well be the case with South Korea. In China on 1 March they were reporting 79.8K cases. As of today, they are reporting 80.9K cases. This is an expansion of around 1,100 cases or an average of 85 cases a day over the last 13 days. For the last three days they have consistent reported 80.9K cases. So it is only growing by a dozen or so a day. Right now they are at 80,945. If the data is correct, then it appears that they have brought this under control even though they have had over 80,000 cases. So, it does appear possible to do. The virus is now expanding faster in several other countries in the world and the number of cases outside of China will soon exceed the number of cases inside of China.

Country…..……Cases…….Deaths…….Rate

World Wide…….135,318……4,981…..…3.68%

China.……….……80,945……3,176………3.92%

Italy…………..……15,113……1,016…..….6.72%

Iran………………..10,075………429…..….4.26%

S. Korea……………7,869………..66…..….0.84%

Spain…………….…3,864..………90………2.33%

Germany……………3,059…………6…..….0.20%

France………………2,879……..…61………2.12%

United States………1,701……..….40….….2.35%

 

Eight countries around the world with over a thousand cases. Below is a list of some of the rest. They are mostly European. Not sure how much more extensive testing influences these figures.

Country…..……Cases…….Deaths…….Rate

Switzerland………..858……….…8…..…..0.93%

Denmark..……..….788….….……0……….0%

Norway…………….702..…………0……….0%

Japan………….……639..…….…16.………2.50%

Netherlands.………614..…….……5.……….0.81%

Sweden…..…….….599….….……1………..0.17%

United Kingdom..…593…….…..…8…..…..1.35%

Belgium….……..….399……………3…..…..0.75%

Austria……….….….302..…….……1……….0.33%

Qatar..……….….….262..….………0…..…..0%

Bahrain………..……189……………0…..…..0%

Singapore……….….187……………0…..…..0%

Finland….………..….155……………0…..…..0%

Malaysia….…………149……………0……….0%

Hong Kong….…..….134…..,….……4……….2.99%

Greece..….….………133……………1…..…..0.75%

Israel…….……….….131……………0…..…..0%

Australia…..….…..…128..….………3…..…..2.34%

Canada……..……….117……………1…..…..0.85%

Czech Rep………..…117……………0…..…..0%

Iceland………….……103…..…..……0………..0%

Slovenia….….………..89…….………0………..0%

UAE……..………….…85……….……0………..0%

Kuwait………….…..…80……….……0….…….0%

Egypt……………..……80……….……2………..2.50%

Iraq…..…………………79..…..………8………10.13%

Portugal.…..……..……78…..….……0…….…..0%

Brazil……….……..……77…..….……0…….…..0%

Thailand.…..……..……75…..….……1…………1.33%

India…….….……..……74…..….……1.…………1.35%

Romania…..……..……70…..….……0…..……..0%

Ireland…………….……70…..….……1.………….1.43%

San Marino….…….…..69…..……….5…..……..7.25%

Lebanon……….………66..….………3……..…..4.54%

Saudi Arabia…..…..….62…..….,……0…..……..0%

Poland………….….….58……………1…..……..1.72%

Philippines…..…….….52…..….……5…………..9.62%

Taiwan………..…….….50…..….……1…..……..2.00%

 

A few other entities of interest to this author that have less than 50 cases so far:

Vietnam….……………38…..….……0…..……..0%

Indonesia….…..…..…34…..……..…2…..……..5.88%

Russia…….…………..34…..….……0…..……..0%

Palestine…..…….……26?……..……0…..……..0%

Pakistan………….……21…..….……0…..……..0%

Mexico…….….……….12……………0…..……..0%

Afghanistan….………….7……………0…..……..0%

New Zealand……….…..5…….…..…0…………..0%

Ukraine…………..……..1…..…….…0…………..0%

North Korea..…..……..0…..…….…0…………..0%

Syria……….………..…..0…..…….…0…………..0%

Diamond Princess……696…….…….7…………..1.01%

 

Part of my concern is the spread of the disease across the Middle East and Central Asia. There are a number of countries in the region still at war, including Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq. How does one contain a virus in a country at war? Do they then serve as a vector for the rest of the countries in the region?

Data is from Johns Hopkins CSSE 3/13/20 as of 7:55.12 AM EST. I did try to do an update at 1:24 PM but it appears that the CSSE database has gaps in it. As of their 12:53.03 PM update they were missing California, Florida and other parts of the U.S. So they were only reporting 1,268 cases when I gather the number is around 1,700. They were only reporting 33 deaths (and none in California or Florida) while I gather the real number is at 41. I will do an update when they have sorted out their database (and Palestine is also still not listed). It is here: Johns Hopkins CSSE

A few more observations:

  1. It does appear that the mortality rate is below 1% if: 1) there is good health care and 2) there is good reporting. That appears to be borne out by the reporting from South Korea and the more contained environment of the cruise ships.
    1. Still the S. Korean mortality rate has continued to increase over the last few days.
    2. Most other countries with a reported rate of less than 1% I suspect have just recently gotten a number of new cases and these figures will be unfortunately changing over time (for example Germany).
  2. If mortality really is less than 1%, then it appears there are already over 90,000 in cases Italy and over 40,000 cases in Iran.
  3. San Marino has a population of 33,562. With 69 cases, this makes it the “most infected” country in the world with 0.21% infected.
    1. The Holy See (Vatican City) is second with 1 case in around 1,000 people (0.10%)
    2. Italy with 60,317,546 people and 15,113 cases is third (0.025%)
    3. South Korea with 51,709,098 people and 7,869 cases is fourth (0.015)
  4. I still suspect 44 U.S. passengers from the Diamond Princess are being double counted in CSSE database.
  5. Palestine was reported on Wednesday to have 26 cases. Now the CSSE database does not report on Palestine. Not sure where those 26 cases went to. Are they reported under Israel?

On the graph at the top of this post, the top line is the number of coronavirus cases in Mainland China (People’s Republic of China). The next line is the “Total Recovered” which is reported at 69,645 out of 135,318 cases (and 4,981 deaths). The bottom line is the number of coronavirus cases in “other locations” (meaning outside of mainland China). This bottom line is to aiming to cross the other two lines over the next couple of weeks.

Coronavirus Mortality Rates update 5

The latest update on the mortality rates for the coronavirus. This has slid out of control in a number of countries, in particular Italy, Iran and the United States. If the reporting is correct, China does seem to have mostly contained the virus, and this may well be the case with South Korea. In China on 1 March they were reporting 79.8K cases. As of today, they are reporting 81K cases. This is an expansion of around 1,200 cases or an average of 109 cases a day over the last 11 days. So, while not completely under control, if the data is correct, this is a good effort considering that they have had over 80,000 cases. The virus is now expanding faster in several other countries in the world and the number of cases outside of China will soon exceed the number of cases inside of China.

Country………….Cases……..Deaths……..Rate

World Wide……….124,908…….4,591….……3.68%

Italy…………..…….12,462…..……827……….6.64%

Iran…………………9,000….……..354……….3.93%

S. Korea…..………7,755..…..……..61……….0.79%

Spain………………2,231..…..…..…54…….…2.42%

Germany………..…1,908……….……3……….0.16%

France……………..1,784….…….…33…..…..1.85%

United States…..…1,135..…..….….30….…….2.64%

 

Eight countries around the world with over a thousand cases. Below is a list of some of the rest. They are mostly European. Not sure how much more extensive testing influences these figures.

Switzerland………..613……..….……4….……..0.65%

Norway………….….598..……………0……..….0%

Japan…………..…..581..………..…12.…….…2.07%

Netherlands.…..……503..……………5.……….0.99%

Sweden…..……..….500….…………0…….…..0%

Denmark..………….442…….………0………..0%

United Kingdom……373……..…..…6………..1.61%

Belgium….………….314….…………1………..0.32%

Qatar..……..…….….262..…..………0………..0%

Austria……..…….….206..…..………0………..0%

Bahrain……..………189…….………0………..0%

Singapore………….178…….………0………..0%

Malaysia….……..…149…….………0…….…..0%

Hong Kong……..….126…..,….……3………..2.94%

Australia…..……..…128..….………3….……..2.34%

Canada…….……..….101……………1….……..1.08%

Greece…………………90……………0…..……..0%

Iceland…………..…….85…..….……0…..……..0%

Israel……………….…..79……………0…..……..0%

UAE……..………..……74…..….……0…..……..0%

Kuwait………….…..…72..…………0…………..0%

Iraq…..…………………71..…………7…………..0%

A few other entities of interest to this author that have less than 70 cases so far:

 

Lebanon…………..…61..…………3…………..4.91%

India……….……..……60…..….……0.….……..0%

San Marino……..…..60…..….…….2…..……..6.67%

Egypt……………..…..60…..….……1…..……..1.69%

Brazil……..……..……37…..….……0…..……..0%

Vietnam….……..……35…..….……0…..……..0%

Indonesia….…..……34…..….……1…..……..2.94%

Palestine…..…..……26…..….……0…..……..0%

Saudia Arabia……….21…..….……0…..……..0%

Russia…….…………..20…..………0…..……..0%

Pakistan………..……19…..….……0…..……..0%

Afghanistan…….…….7……………0…..……..0%

Mexico…….…………..7…….………0…..……..0%

New Zealand….……..5…….………0…..……..0%

Ukraine………………..1…..……..…0…..……..0%

North Korea..………..0…..……..…0…..……..0%

Syria……….…………..0…..……..…0…..……..0%

Diamond Princess…696…….……..7…..……..1.01%

 

Data is from Johns Hopkins CSSE 3/11/20 as of 4:13.43 PM EST. This is the third time I have updated this post today. It is here: Johns Hopkins CSSE

A few more observations:

  1. It does appear that the mortality rate is below 1% if: 1) there is good health care and 2) there is good reporting. That appears to be borne out by the reporting from South Korea and the more contained environment of the cruise ships.
    1. Still the S. Korean mortality rate has continued to increase over the last few days.
  2. If mortality really is less than 1%, then it appears there are already over 60,000 in Italy.
  3. San Marino has a population of 33,562. With 60 cases, this makes it the “most infected” country in the world with 0.178% infected.
    1. The Holy See (Vatican City) is second with 1 case in around 1,000 people (0.100%)
    2. Italy with 60,317,546 people and 12,462 cases is third (0.021%)
    3. South Korea with 51,709,098 people and 7,755 cases is fourth (0.015)
  4. I still suspect 44 U.S. passengers from the Diamond Princess are being double counted in CSSE database.

On the graph at the top of this post, the top line is the number of coronavirus cases in Mainland China (People’s Republic of China). The next line is the “Total Recovered” which is reported at 66,702 out of 124,908 cases (and 4,591 deaths). The bottom line is the number of coronavirus cases in “other locations” (meaning outside of mainland China). This bottom line is to aiming to cross the other two lines over the next couple of weeks.

Technological Advancement Lessons from History?

In an effort that is similar to what Trevor Dupuy was doing with his Evolution of Weapons and Warfare, we have another paper from Dr. Kott of Army Research Laboratory. This effort is in many respects Trevor Dupuy’s graph from Evolution of Weapons and Warfare brought forward in time. Many of the weapons and weapons systems calculations used are similar to what was done for Dupuy’s Quantified Judgment Model (QJM), including the use of formulae for determining the combat power of “ground-mobile, direct-fire systems (MFS).” This is very similar to what Trevor Dupuy did with Mobile Fighting Machines (MFM) in Numbers, Predictions and War.

At some point I may systematically analyze the similarities and differences between the two efforts, but this will take some time. Right now, I am trying to get another book finished. Anyhow, Dr. Kott’s latest article is here:

https://warontherocks.com/2019/12/the-future-of-war-technology-whispers-to-us-from-the-past-and-we-must-listen-better/

Our previous posts on Dr. Kott’s work are here:

The Evolution of Weapons and Warfare?

Data Used for the ARL Paper

Data Used of the ARL Paper – post 2

Dupuy’s Verities: Fortification

Coronavirus Mortality Rates update 4

The latest update on the mortality rates for the coronavirus. This is not developing well. It looks like at least three countries (Italy, Iran and the United States) do not have control of the situation. On the other hand, China seems to have partly contained the virus. On 18 February, they were reporting 74.1K cases. As of today, they are reporting 80.6K cases. This is an expansion of around 6,500 cases or an average of 382 cases a day over the last 17 days. In the last 5 days, they have only added around 800 more cases (around 160 cases a day). So, while not completely under control, if the data is correct, this is a good effort considering that they have had over 80,000 cases. The virus is now expanding faster in several other countries in the world.

Country……………….Cases……..Deaths………..Rate

World Wide…….…….101,587……..3,460….………3.41%

S. Korea…………………6,593..………..42………….0.64%

Iran………………………4,747…………124………….2.61%

Italy………………………4,636…………197………….4.25%

Germany…………….……670…..….……0…………..0%

France………………….…577……………9…………..1.56%

Spain….……………….…386..…….……5……………1.30%

Japan……………………..381..…….……6.……….…1.57%

United States……..….….245..…….….14…….……..5.71%

Switzerland……………….214…..….……1…….……..0.47%

United Kingdom…………163……………2…….……..1.23%

Singapore……………….130……………0………..…..0%

Netherlands.………..…..128..…….……1…………….0.78%

Belgium….……………….109……………0….………..1.96%

Norway………………..….108..…………0…..…….….0%

Hong Kong…………..….106…..….……2….………..1.89%

Sweden…..…………..….101…..………0…..………..0%

Malaysia….…….……..….83…..………0…..………..0%

Bahrain…….…….…….….60…..………0…..………..0%

Australia…..……….…..….60..…………2…..………..3.33%

Kuwait…………………..…58..…………0…..………..0%

Austria…….…….………….55..…………0…..………..0%

Cruise Ships….…………696…..………6……………..0.86%

 

Data is from Johns Hopkins CSSE 3/06/20 as of 1:33.03 PM EST. It is here: Johns Hopkins CSSE

A few more observations:

  1. It does appear that the mortality rate is below 1% if: 1) there is good health care and 2) there is good reporting. That appears to be borne out by the reporting from South Korea and the more contained environment of the cruise ships.
    1. Still the S. Korean mortality rate has increased over the last couple of days.
  2. Italy and Iran are well on their way to 5,000 cases and this number will continue to grow. Their mortality rate is now 4.25% & 2.61%
  3. The United States has the highest mortality rate at 5.71%. This could be because 1) the disease hit a particularly vulnerable population at a nursing home, and 2) we may be far from having this under control and have not properly located, tested and contained all the cases out there. Suspect we are looking at more than 1,000 cases in the U.S.

On the graph at the top of this post, the top line is the number of coronavirus cases in Mainland China (People’s Republic of China). The next line is the “Total Recovered” which is reported at 55,863 out of 101,587 cases (and 3,460 deaths). The bottom line is the number of coronavirus cases in “other locations” (meaning outside of mainland China)

Other Notes:

  1. The cruise ship figure has been reduced in the CSSE database from 706 cases to 696. Not sure why.
  2. The cruise ship figure is interesting as it is a more contained environment. Japan quarantined 3,711 passengers and crew from the Diamond Princess. Of those 696 or 706 tested positive for Coronavirus and now six have died.
  3. The CSSE database is double counting some cases. For example there are 696 or 706 cases that tested positive on the cruise ships, 44 of them were shipped to the U.S. I believe their database counts those 44 among the 696 or 706 on the cruise ship and counts those 44 among the 245 in the U.S. If this is the case then the revised mortality statistics for the U.S. is 6.97% (removing those 44 cases).

Coronavirus Mortality Rates update 3

Another partial update on the mortality rates for the coronavirus. In my last update (29 Feb) I listed all countries with more than 60 cases. They all now have more than a hundred cases.

Country…………………….Cases……..Deaths………..Rate

World Wide…………………94,250…….3,214……………3.41%

S. Korea……………………..5,621………..28…………….0.50%

Iran……………………………2,922………..92…………….3.15%

Italy………………………..…2,502………..79…………….3.16%

Japan…………………………..304…………6.……………1.97%

Germany………………………244…………0……………..0%

France…………………………212…………4……………..1.89%

Spain….…………………….…193…………1……………..0.52%

United States…………..…….128…….……9……………..7.03%

Singapore……………………..110…………0……………..0%

Hong Kong………………..….102…………2……………..1.96%

Switzerland………………..……93…………0……………..0%

Kuwait…….………………..……56…………0……………..0%

United Kingdom…………..……53…………0……………..0%

Malaysia…..………………..….50…………0……………..0%

Bahrain…..………………….….49…………0……………..0%

Cruise Ships……….…….…..706…………6……………..0.85%

 

Data is from Johns Hopkins CSSE 3/04/20 as of 8:33.02 AM EST. It is here: Johns Hopkins CSSE

A few more observations:

  1. It does appear that the mortality rate is below 1% if: 1) there is good health care and 2) there is good reporting. That appears to be borne out by the reporting from South Korea and the more contained environment of the cruise ships.
  2. Italy and Iran has now both exceeded over two thousand cases and I suspect the number will continue to grow. They now have similar mortality rates at 3.15% & 3.16%
  3. The United States now has the highest mortality rate at 7.05%. This could be because 1) the disease hit a particularly vulnerable population at a nursing home, and 2) we may be far from having this under control and have not properly located, tested and contained all the cases out there.
    1. This article from The Guardian is worth a read: Washington state residents frustrated

On the graph at the top of this post, the top line is the number of coronavirus cases in Mainland China (People’s Republic of China). The next line is the “Total Recovered” which is reported at 51,026 out of 94,250 cases (and 3,214 deaths). The bottom line is the number of coronavirus cases in “other locations” (meaning outside of mainland China)

Other Notes:

  1. The cruise ship figure is interesting as it is a more contained environment. Japan quarantined 3,711 passengers and crew from the Diamond Princess. Of those 706 tested positive for Coronavirus and now six have died.
  2. The CSSE database is double counting some cases. For example there are 706 cases that tested positive on the cruise ships, 44 of them were shipped to the U.S. I believe their database counts those 44 among the 706 on the cruise ship and counts those 44 among the 128 in the U.S. If this is the case then the revised mortality statistics for the U.S. is 10.71% (removing those 44 cases).
  3. It is worthwhile to read the comments by “Ulenspiegel” posted to my previous post.

Mortality Rates update 2

 

Withdrawal and War Termination – 2

Expected first follow-up post to my previous post. I do have a chapter in my book America’s Modern Wars (2015) on Afghanistan. Most of our work on insurgencies was focused on Iraq. Several years after we did our Iraq casualty estimate (presented on pages 15-31 and 302-307) we were asked to do a briefing or two about Afghanistan. This was a little odd, as it was not something we had studied in depth and we never have. All of our work was on Iraq or on insurgencies in general. We never specifically analyzed on Afghanistan or had a contract to do so. Still, hard to ignore Afghanistan so I ended up with the chapter on it in my book (Chapter 21, pages 253-272).

The final paragraph in that chapter reads (pages 269-270):

Given our unwillingness to step up our commitment, then the only question is whether a slower withdrawal will provide more tangible benefits than a fast withdrawal. This we have not examined. Still, this is not “winning” the war in any sense of the word winning. It is withdrawing with the situation on the ground unresolved and a government that far from democratic or stable. We will be leaving behind trainers and other support people, but limited combat troops. If history is a guide, then this government will be replaced one way or the other several years after we withdraw. What will replace it is hard to determine, but will probably include a return to some extent of the Taliban, or perhaps with them leading the new government. It is also distinctly possible that the country will return back into civil war. None of this fulfills our objectives.

What more do I need to say? I wrote that in 2014 or so…..right now the current Afghan government consist of two people claiming to be the president and the U.S. had just negotiated a complete withdrawal over the next 14 months. The negotiations between the Taliban and the Afghan government start on 10 March 2020.

Previous post:

Withdrawal and War Termination – 1

Mortality Rates update 2

Another partial update on the mortality rates for the coronavirus. This is developing fast enough that another update was needed. There were significant increases in the number of cases in South Korea, Italy and Iran. I am now listing all countries with more than 60 cases:

Country…………………….Cases……..Deaths………..Rate

World Wide…………………85,954…….2,941……………3.42%

S. Korea……………………..3,150………..16…………….0.51%

Italy………………………..…1,128………..29…………….2.57%

Iran……………………………..593………..43…………….7.25%

Japan…………………………..241…………5.……………2.08%

Singapore……………………..102…………0……………..0%

Hong Kong……………………..94…………2……………..2.13%

Germany………………………..79…………0……………..0%

France…………………………..73…………2……………..2.74%

United States…………………..68…………1……………..1.47%

Cruise Ships………..…….…..705…………6……………..0.85%

 

Data is from Johns Hopkins CSSE 2/28/20 as of 1:23.10 PM EST. It is here: Johns Hopkins CSSE

A few observations:

  1. S. Korea lower mortality rate with over 3,000 cases either indicates that 1) they have exceptional health care 2) they have a younger population exposed, or 3) they are doing a better job in identifying all the people who have the disease. Suspect the later. If that is true for most of these cases, then any nation with a mortality rate of greater than 0.50% could be undercounting the number of cases by several multiples.
  2. Italy has now exceeded over a thousand cases and suspect the number will continue to grow.
  3. Iran is still underreporting cases by the thousands.
  4. The cruise ship figure is interesting as it is a more contained environment. Japan quarantined 3,711 passengers and crew from the Diamond Princess. Of those 705 tested positive for Coronavirus and now six have died.
  5. The CSSE database is double counting some cases. For example their are 705 cases that tested positive on the cruise ships, 44 of them were shipped to the U.S. I believe their database counts those 44 among the 705 on the cruise ship and counts those 44 among the 68 in the U.S. If this is the case then the revised mortality statistics for the U.S. is 4.17% (removing those 44 cases).

Withdrawal and War Termination – 1

I have got a hunch that there will be multiple posts on this subject, so have already labeled this post such. The United States just signed a peace agreement today with the Taliban. The United States had agreed to reduce the presence of U.S. troops to 8,600 within 135 days (around 13 July 2020). It is currently around 13,000. The U.S. also agreed to completely withdraw all troops in 14 months (by April 2021?). In exchange, “the Taliban promise to not let extremists use the country as a staging ground for attacking the U.S. or its allies” (to quote from Yahoo news). The withdrawal is “conditions-based” to quote Secretary of Defense Mark Esper. This is more to this 4-page agreement, which I have yet to see. I may get into later.

There will be a separate peace deal between the Afghan Government and the Taliban will begin on 10 March 2020 which will included a “permanent and comprehensive ceasefire” (to quote from the U.S. State Department). We shall see how that goes. On 10 March the U.S. will review its sanctions against the Taliban with the goal of ending them by August 27.

In my book America’s Modern Wars (2015) I have a chapter called “Withdrawal and War Termination.” It is Chapter 19 and covers pages 237-242. It is a short chapter because we never really did any work on the subject. Not that we didn’t want to, but we could never get anyone to fund such work. Most of our customers were U.S. Army or Department of Defense (DOD). They were not particularly interested a decade ago in work on “withdrawal and war termination.” Now I think they should have been, but I don’t get to make those decisions.

My chapter starts:

The missing piece of analysis in both our work and in that of many of the various counterinsurgent theorists is how does one terminate or end these wars, and what is the best way to do so? This is not an insignificant point. We did propose doing exactly such a study in several of our reports, briefings and conversations, but no one expressed a strong interest in examining war termination.

Obviously, if the insurgents are driving tanks through the streets of the capital city, the war had ended, and not favorably for the counterinsurgents. But many insurgencies end with some form of negotiated settlement. Many insurgences end with the slow collapse and disintegration of the insurgency. Many of these end with some form of political compromise. Most of them end with some form of negotiation and political agreement, regardless of victor.

And then there is a multiple page discussion on 1) determining winners and losers (easy to determine insurgent victories, but “around one-third of counterinsurgent wins are clouded, or somewhat less than clear victories“), 2) force draw downs during an insurgency (there are only three cases: Malaysia, Northern Ireland and Vietnam, not counting Iraq and Afghanistan) and 3) then we go to these concluding statements:

A basic examination needs to be done concerning how insurgencies end, how withdrawals are conducted, and what the impact of various approaches towards war termination is. This also needs to address long-term outcome, that is, what happened following war termination.

We have nothing particularly unique and insightful to offer in this regard. Therefore, we will avoid the tendency to pontificate generally and leave this discussion for later. Still, we are currently observing with Afghanistan and Iraq two wars where the intervening power is withdrawing or has withdrawn. These are both interesting cases of war termination strategies, although we do not yet know the outcome in either case.

Anyhow, more to come on this.

 

Mortality Rates update 1

Partial update on the mortality rates for the coronavirus:

 

Country…………………….Cases……..Deaths………..Rate

World Wide…………………84,124…….2,867……………3.41%

S. Korea……………………..2,337………..13…………….0.56%

Italy……………………………..888………..21…………….2.36%

Iran……………………………..388………..34…………….8.76%

Japan…………………………..228…………4*……………1.75%

Cruise Ships…………………..705…………5……………..0.71%

 

* The site says 4, some news reports are now giving higher counts.

This update is caused by the continue expansion of cases in S. Korea, Italy, Iran and Japan. These are the four countries outside of China that report over a 100 cases. This post was updated in the afternoon because of additional Italian data.

Data is from Johns Hopkins CSSE 2/28/20 as of 4:13.12 PM EST. It is here: Johns Hopkins CSSE

A few observations:

  1. S. Korea has a noticeably lower mortality rate than any other nation with over a 100 cases. This may be because of better identification and testing of people with the virus.
  2. Italy is now nearing a thousand cases, as I mentioned yesterday was possibly the case.
  3. Iran’s mortality rate is now lower because they are identifying more cases. Of course, some of these new cases may be fatal.
  4. I assume Japan’s figures will be sorted out as reports and updates are made.
  5. The cruise ship figure is interesting as it is a more contained environment. Japan quarantined 3,711 passengers and crew from the Diamond Princess. Of those 705 tested positive for Coronavirus and five have died.