Mystics & Statistics

Sweden versus the World

Sweden is unique in that they were one of the few countries in the Western World that did not shut down to try to contain the coronavirus. Let’s briefly take a look and see how that worked:

Country…Population…Cases…..Deaths….Infection Rate…Death Rate…Morality Rate

Sweden….10.3………….90,923…….5,880…..0.0088…………..0.00057…………6.5%

Denmark….5.8………….13,627……….270…..0.0023…………..0.00005…………2.0%

Norway……5.4………….26,637……….649…..0.0048…………..0.00012…………2.4%

.

U.S………328.2………7,081,505…204,527….0.0216…………..0.00062………….2.9%

UK………..67.9…………431,824…..42,060…..0.0064…………..0.00062………….9.7%

Italy………60.3………….308,104….35,818…..0.0051…………..0.00059………..11.6%

 

This data is from the Johns Hopkins website as of 9:23 AM. Population is in millions and is the 2020 estimates.

A few observations:

  1. Sweden’s mortality rate is a more than 10 times higher then Denmark, which did do a strict lockdown.
  2. Note that the U.S., UK and Italy have a higher mortality rate even though Sweden has not done a lockdown.
    1. The U.S. mortality rate is the highest of any developed nation in the world.
  3. The differences in mortality rates is certainly strongly influenced by the amount of testing done. The high mortality rate of Italy, UK and Sweden is certainly because of less extensive testing or failure to test.
    1. The real mortality rate is probably between 0.5% and 2%.
  4. Of course, there is no way of knowing how accurate are each of these statistics. For example, who is counted as killed by the disease does vary from country to country (for example: Germany versus Belgium).
  5. I have no way of easily comparing the economic impact of the various policies.
  6. One could postulate that If Sweden has Denmark’s mortality rate, it would have over 5,000 less deaths.
  7. One could postulate that if the United States had Denmark’s mortality rate, it would have almost 190,000 less deaths.
    1. Keep in mind these numbers are particularly fuzzy due to different reporting standards and definitions.

The picture is of a Grenadier of the Swedish Royal Guard. Sweden has not been in a war since 1815.

Coronavirus in the DC area – update 25

Latest weekly update of this coronavirus post. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million)  increased by 3,387 new cases. Last week week there were 3,317 new cases. There does seem to be a pattern in that the spread of the virus has been reduced from when we were seeing 9,000 or more cases a week several months ago, to a more controlled 3,000 or more cases a week now. Still, it does not appear to be getting any better.

In contrast, Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the epicenter of the European outbreak, is reporting 1,391 new cases for the day yesterday. They are dealing with some new outbreaks as are a lot of countries that appeared to have the virus under control.

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 twelve weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 10:23 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….14,376…..15,050……..621
Arlington, VA……………..237,521………3,779……3,877……..148
Alexandria VA……………160,530………3,628……3,741…..….68
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795…….19,837…..20,437…….583
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772………….66……..…69…….…6
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.…….….132………134………..7
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..….….6,523…….6,720……123
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011..…….11,810…..12,215……201
Manassas…………………..41,641….……1,869…….1,904……..25
Manassas Park………….…17,307..…….….598……….607.….…7
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……….1,880….…1,971..…..17
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144.….…….518….……531..…….5
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567…….21,467……21,933……841
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308…….28,034……28,715……821
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…..114,517….117,904…3,473

This is a 3% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 2.95%, which is high, but has been steadily declining over the last few weeks. The population known to have been infected is 2.20% or one confirmed case for every 46 people.

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. Maybe one-third of the students at these universities are from Northern Virginia. UVA opened up for students two weeks ago. The other two universities opened up for students around a month ago. They have all had problems.

Harrisonburg, VA is reporting 2,541 cases (2,293 last week) and 34 deaths, while Rockingham County, where the town resides, is reporting 1,390 cases (1,312 last week) and 21 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located. A few weeks ago they sent home 6,000 students who were in the dorms (which I think was a mistake). They originally decided to do in-person classes and did not test their students before they arrived. The end result was a fiasco.

Albemarle County, VA has 1,203 confirmed cases (1,145 last week) and 21 deaths and Charlottesville, VA which has 1,105 confirmed cases (935 last week) and 28 deaths. This is where UVA is located. They tested their students before admission, opened up campus two weeks later and are not doing in-person classes. UVA had a covid tracker which is worth looking at: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. They are having a a growth in cases since they reopened, now around two hundred new cases on campus a week. We shall see if this can be contained. They are still not that actively patrolling to ensure that the student body is following the guidelines. They report 569 cases since 17 August, which I gather is a higher percentage of student population then for Virginia Tech.

Further south, Montgomery County, VA has 1,783 cases this week (1,554 last week) and 4 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) itself is not doing well, running around a thousand new cases a day right now (862 cases yesterday).

Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area in the outer banks, has had 264 cases (260 last week) and 2 deaths.

Continued Protests in Belarus – week 6

Well sizable protests continued this weekend in Belarus, although they may not be as big as before. May have been less then 100,000 people. News reports are saying tens of thousands, while one opposition paper is claiming 150,000. The Belarus police claim 20,000 protestors all over the country. As both sides are expected to over/under estimate crowd sizes the real number of probably somewhere in between these two estimates. I suspect the protest in Minsk was less than 100,000. There may have been 200,000 protestors a couple of weeks ago. There were also protests in Brest, Gomel and other places.

Lukashenko’s police were a little heavier handed than in the last two weeks, detaining or arresting over 400 people on Sunday.

Not sure I know what was decided in Lukashenko’s meeting with Putin last week, but so far nothing significant has happened.

It does appear that this is turning into a waiting game, where Lukashenko is trying to ride out the protests and hope that over time they loose virulence. This is all being done in an environment of the coronavirus and what is certainly a declining economy. In the case of the coronavirus, it is reported for Belarus (population: 9.4 million, 80K square miles of area, GDP 63.6 billion, per capita income $6,744 or $21,233 PPP) that they have 75,898 cases and 785 deaths. Just to compare to the U.S. state of Virginia (population 8.5 million 42K square miles of area, GDP 476.4 billion, per capital income $56,047), Virginia has 141,022 cases and 3,019 deaths. There is reason to suspect the accuracy of Belarus’ statistics. See the two graphs below.

It is hard for governments to stay in power in a declining economy (although Venezuela manages) and between protests and coronavirus (and declining population and potential “brain drain”), it is hard for this economy to anything other than decline.

This may go on for a while.

 

P.S. Population of Belarus over time:

P.P.S. The Belarus coronavirus graph:

In light of the all the protests and the lack of social distancing efforts by the government, it is hard to believe that the number of cases have declined from their peak and have not rebounded.

P.P.P.S. The Virginia coronavirus graph:

P.P.P.P.S. The detained protestor was identified over twitter (@A_Sannikov) as Natalia Petukhova. The arresting officer has not been identified. Picture came from @svirsky1 via @XSovietNews

Attrition for $900

I was on the phone with someone earlier today and he told me that Attrition: Forecasting Battle Casualties and Equipment Losses in Modern War was on sale on Amazon.com for only $900. I took a look, and sure enough, they have used one for $121.00 and a new one $890. That is it.

On the other hand, we still have new copies for sale for the list place of $19.95. See here: http://www.dupuyinstitute.org/booksfs.htm

I have not taken inventory in a while, but we still have 40 or so available.

Ordering information is here: http://www.dupuyinstitute.org/order.htm

Maybe I should start selling on Amazon.com and undercut them with an offer of $889.99.

Coronavirus in the DC area – update 24

Latest weekly update of this coronavirus post. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million)  increased by 3,317 new cases. Last week week there were 3,132 new cases. This is not great. In contrast, Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the epicenter of the European outbreak, is reporting 1,229 new cases for the day yesterday. They are dealing with some new outbreaks as are a lot of countries that appeared to have the virus under control.

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 eleven weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 12:22 PM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….14,362…..14,376……..617
Arlington, VA……………..237,521……..3,679…….3,779……..146
Alexandria VA……………160,530……..3,546…….3,628……….66
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795……19,177……19,837……..572
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772……..….66…………66…………6
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.……….126……….132…….…..7
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..…….6,273…….6,523………119
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011..…..11,364……11,810……..196
Manassas…………………..41,641……..1,842…….1,869…..…..24
Manassas Park………….…17,307..………587……….598…………8
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……..1,799…….1,880………..13
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144.….…..511……….518…………5
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567…..20,766……21,467……..835
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308…..27,102……28,034……..814
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…111,200….114,517…..3,428

This is a 3% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 2.99%, which is high, but has been steadily declining over the last few weeks. The population known to have been infected is 2.13% or one confirmed case for every 47 people.

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison at Harrisburg, UVA at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech at Blacksburg. UVA opened up for students a week ago. The other two universities opened up for students three or four weeks ago. They have both had problems.

Harrisonburg, VA is reporting 2,293 cases (1,989 last week) and 34 deaths, while Rockingham County, where the city resides, is reporting 1,312 cases (1,183 last week) and 21 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located. Week before last they sent home 6,000 students who were in the dorms (which I think is a mistake). They originally decided to do in-person classes and did not test their students before they arrived. The end result was a fiasco.

Albemarle County, VA has 1,145 confirmed cases (1,101 last week) and 19 deaths and Charlottesville, VA which has 935 confirmed cases (819 last week) and 26 deaths. This is where UVA is located. They tested their students before admission, opened up campus two weeks later and are not doing in-person classes. UVA had a covid tracker which is worth looking at: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. They are having a small boom in cases since they reopened, over a hundred new cases on campus a week. We shall see if this can be contained. They are not actively patrolling to ensure that the student body is following the guidelines.

What is interesting is that they tested 18,215 students before admission and ended up with 65 cases (0.36% or one in every 280 students). That is a nice indication of the prevalence of active cases.

Further south, Montgomery County, VA has 1,554 cases this week (1,073 last week) and 4 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) itself is not doing well, running around a thousand new cases a day right now (935 cases yesterday) and it has been for the last few weeks.

Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area in the outer banks, has had 260 cases (254 last week) and 2 deaths.

Richthofen’s Cavalry Fight at Virton

Source: https://www.thebicyclingguitarist.net/studies/colorphotos.htm

 

Around the 22nd of August, Lt. Manfred von Richthofen with 15 Uhlans advanced into a woods near Virton, Belgium and when they got the other side of the woods, fell into a French ambush.

According to his account in his autobiography (pages 53-56), the horses of two of his Uhlans leaped the barricade blocking the path and and rode towards the French because the horses were in panic of the sound of all the gunfire.

His orderly’s horse was shot and fell down, trapping the orderly beneath it.

Richthofen and the rest of the Uhlans retreated back through the woods. The orderly returned two days later minus one of his boots, which was trapped under the horse. Richthofen claimed that there were about 100 rifles opposing them and they were firing from 50 to 100 yards. The orderly claims that “At least two squadrons of French cuirassiers had issued from the forest in order to plunder the fallen horses and brave Uhlans.”

This sentence gets my attention, as it tends to indicate that there were additional Prussian casualties besides the two men and horses who jumped the barricade and the orderly’s horse. As Richthofen’s autobiography was probably censored, it is possible that any reports of German killed might have been removed. Yet the sentence “…plunder the fallen horses and brave Uhlans” strongly indicates that there were indeed additional losses among the Uhlans and their horses that were not detailed in this book.

Has anyone examined this engagement in depth, checked the unit records, etc. and determined what actually occurred and what were the losses?

Continued Protests in Belarus – Week 5

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko greets officials upon his arrival Sept. 14 at an airport in Sochi, Russia. (Belta/Reuters)

This story remains invisible in a lot of the U.S. news, but there were another 100,000+ protestors on the streets of Minsk on Sunday. According to the French 24-hour News this was a little bit smaller protest than last week. The Belarus police arrested at least 250 people yesterday. Still, this level of activity is much less than it was in the first two weeks of the protests, where thousands were arrested. This appears to be a waiting game… or a waiting out game.

Meanwhile today, the president of Belarus, Aleksander Lukashenko was in Sochi meeting with Vladimir Putin, president of Russia. This has got to an interesting and awkward discussion.

It still appear that the protests are not going away, Lukashenko does not want to bring in Russia to help put down the protests (Putin has offered), and……

War Crimes and Richthofen’s autobiography

Source: https://www.thebicyclingguitarist.net/studies/colorphotos.htm

In 1917, Manfred Albrecht Baron von Richthofen (1892-1918), sometimes known as the Red Baron, wrote an autobiography. At that time he was Germany’s leading ace with 52 claimed kills. He later claimed 80 kills before he was shot down.

His autobiography was almost certainly reviewed and censored by German authorities, although to what extent is hard to say.

I was re-reading it recently (I last read it when I was a kid) and a few passages stood out to me. These all occurred while he was serving with the Uhlans first in Russia and then in France at the start of the war.

On pages 47-48 for their operations at the border village of Kieltze in Poland (part of the Russian Empire), probably around 2 August 1914, Richthofen writes:

What should I do in order not to be noticed by the villagers? My first idea was to lock up the “pope.” [Russian priest] We fetched him from his house, to his great surprise. I locked him up among the bells in the church tower, took away the ladder, and left him sitting up above. I assured him that he would be executed if the population should show any hostile inclinations. A sentinel placed on the tower observed the neighborhood.

and five days later, only Richthofen and one other man were in the village:

…for the street swarmed with Cossacks…Most of them had lanterns, and they acted very incautiously and were very noisy. I estimated that they were from twenty to thirty. One had left his horse and gone to the “pope. whom I had let off the day before. Immediately it flashed through my brain, “Of course we are betrayed!…After having rested a few hours, our visitors rode away.

It is not stated if the “pope” went away with the Cossacks or if anything was done after the Cossacks left.

On pages 52-53 while they were at Arlon, Belgium in August 1914 Richthofen writes:

At Arlon I climbed the steeple in accordance with the tactical principles which we had ben taught in peace time…When I came down again I was surrounded by a crowd of angry young men who made hostile eyes, and who talked threateningly in undertones. My bicycle had, of course, been punctured, and I had to go on foot for half an hour. This incident amused me. I should have been delighted had it come to a fight. I felt absolutely sure of myself with a pistol in my hand.

 

Later on I hear that the inhabitants had behave very treacherously several days previously toward our cavalry, and later on towards our ambulances. It had therefore been found necessary to place quite a number of these gentlemen against the wall.

 

I assume the most negative interpretation of “against the wall” is correct. According to Wikipedia on Arlon: “Arlon was one of the first victims of the German invasion in 1914 as 121 inhabitants were executed on 26 August, on the orders of Colonel Richard Karl von Tessmar.” and in the Wikipedia article on Tessmar: “On 26 August, 121 Belgian civilians were executed at Arlon railway station on his order.”

On page 57 while they on Virton on or after 22 August 1914 Richthofen writes:

So both Loen and I had quarters for ourselves and our men…The monks were extremely amiable. They gave us as much to eat and to drink as we cared to have, and we had a very good time…We settled down as if we were on manoeuvres, and as if we were in the house of a delightful host and friend. At the same time it should be observed that thee days later we hanged several of our hosts to the lanterns because they could not overcome their desire to take a hand in the war. But that evening they were really extremely amiable.

This last one is significant as there were several major war crimes conducted by the German Army in that area. Dinant with 674 executed by Saxon troops being the largest. According to Wikipedia article on Virton “On August 22, 1914, at the onset of World War I, hundreds of inhabitants were summarily executed by the invading German army…” This is worth looking at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rape_of_Belgium

So I assume I am correct in reading this account as an open admission that he knew of and participated in war crimes and then published them in a censored wartime autobiography?

Coronavirus in the DC area – update 23

Latest weekly update of this coronavirus post. This week it has increased by 3,132 new cases. Last week week there were 3,828 new cases. This is still not great. In contrast, Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the epicenter of the European outbreak, is reporting 1,369 new cases yesterday. They are dealing with some new outbreaks as are a lot of countries that appeared to have the virus under control.

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 ten weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 9:28 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week……Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….14,077…..14,362………..611
Arlington, VA……………..237,521………3,569…….3,679……….143
Alexandria VA……………160,530………3,415……3,546………….62
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795…….18,606.…19,177………..566
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772…………..66………..66………..…7
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.………..121………126…………..7
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..…..…6,053.…..6,273……….118
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011..…….10,944.…11,364………188
Manassas…………………..41,641……….1,813……1,842………..24
Manassas Park………….…17,307..……….571.……..587…………7
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……….1,729.…..1,799………..13
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144.….…….486……….511…………4
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567…….20,190..…20,766……..828
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308…….26,428……27,102…….803
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…..108,068….111,200…..3,381

This is a 3% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 3.04%, which is high, but has been steadily declining over the last few weeks. The population known to have been infected is 2.07% or one confirmed case for every 48 people.

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison at Harrisburg, UVA at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech at Blacksburg. UVA is opening up for students this weekend. The other two universities opened up for students two or three weeks ago. They have both had problems.

Harrisonburg, VA is reporting 1,989 cases (1,496 last week) and 34 deaths, while Rockingham County, where the city resides, is reporting 1,183 cases (1,0808 last week) and 20 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located. Last week they sent home 6,000 students who were in the dorms (which I think is a mistake). They originally decided to do in-person classes and did not test their students before they arrived. The end result was a fiasco.

Albemarle County, VA has 1,101 confirmed cases (1,052 last week) and 19 deaths and Charlottesville, VA which has 819 confirmed cases (699 last week) and 24 deaths. This is where UVA is located. They tested their students before admission, opened up campus two weeks later and are not doing in-person classes.

UVA had a covid tracker which is worth looking at: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker

What is interesting is that they tested 18,215 students before admission and ended up with 65 cases (0.36% or one in every 280 students).

Further south, Montgomery County, VA has 1,073 cases this week (600 last week) and 4 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) itself is not doing well, running around a thousand new cases a day right now (834 cases yesterday) and it has been for the last few weeks.

Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area in the outer banks, has had 254 cases (242 last week) and 2 deaths.

Continued Protests in Belarus – week 4

Another 100,000+ people protesting in Minsk. This is the third Sunday in a row with over 100,000 protestors. Again, not sure how Lukashenko rides this one out, although this does appear to be his plan. He does not have a lot of other good options. I suspect if he seriously cracks down he will probably be overthrown, and I gather he understands that. If he called Russia for aid, then they may never leave. If things get too disorderly, Russia may use that as an excuse to intervene. So, it appears that he is just trying to hang on and hope that this somehow wears itself out. As we saw with the Euromaidan protests in Ukraine, this is probably a vain hope. They went on for 3 months, under sniper fire and in the middle of winter.

Anyhow, watching and waiting. These are the types of events that make people like Putin and Xi Jinping nervous, and they do have reason to be in the age of coronavirus and declining economies.