Mystics & Statistics

Are Long-Range Fires Changing The Character of Land Warfare?

Raytheon’s new Long-Range Precision Fires missile is deployed from a mobile launcher in this artist’s rendering. The new missile will allow the Army to fire two munitions from a single weapons pod, making it cost-effective and doubling the existing capacity. (Ratheon)
Raytheon’s new Long-Range Precision Fires missile is deployed from a mobile launcher in this artist’s rendering. The new missile will allow the Army to fire two munitions from a single weapons pod, making it cost-effective and doubling the existing capacity. (Ratheon)

Has U.S. land warfighting capability been compromised by advances by potential adversaries in long-range artillery capabilities? Michael Jacobson and Robert H. Scales argue that this is the case in an article on War on the Rocks.

While the U.S. Army has made major advances by incorporating precision into artillery, the ability and opportunity to employ precision are premised on a world of low-intensity conflict. In high-intensity conflict defined by combined-arms maneuver, the employment of artillery based on a precise point on the ground becomes a much more difficult proposition, especially when the enemy commands large formations of moving, armored vehicles, as Russia does. The U.S. joint force has recognized this dilemma and compensates for it by employing superior air forces and deep-strike fires. But Russia has undertaken a comprehensive upgrade of not just its military technology but its doctrine. We should not be surprised that Russia’s goal in this endeavor is to offset U.S. advantages in air superiority and double-down on its traditional advantages in artillery and rocket mass, range, and destructive power.

Jacobson and Scales provide a list of relatively quick fixes they assert would restore U.S. superiority in long-range fires: change policy on the use of cluster munitions; upgrade the U.S. self-propelled howitzer inventory from short-barreled 39 caliber guns to long-barreled 52 calibers and incorporate improved propellants and rocket assistance to double their existing range; reevaluate restrictions on the forthcoming Long Range Precision Fires rocket system in light of Russian attitudes toward the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces treaty; and rebuild divisional and field artillery units atrophied by a decade of counterinsurgency warfare.

Their assessment echoes similar comments made earlier this year by Lieutenant General H. R. McMaster, director of the U.S. Army’s Capabilities Integration Center. Another option for countering enemy fire artillery capabilities, McMaster suggested, was the employment of “cross-domain fires.” As he explained, “When an Army fires unit arrives somewhere, it should be able to do surface-to-air, surface-to-surface, and shore-to-ship capabilities.

The notion of land-based fire elements engaging more than just other land or counter-air targets has given rise to a concept being called “multi-domain battle.” It’s proponents, Dr. Albert Palazzo of the Australian Army’s War Research Centre, and Lieutenant Colonel David P. McLain III, Chief, Integration and Operations Branch in the Joint and Army Concepts Division of the Army Capabilities Integration Center, argue (also at War on the Rocks) that

While Western forces have embraced jointness, traditional boundaries between land, sea, and air have still defined which service and which capability is tasked with a given mission. Multi-domain battle breaks down the traditional environmental boundaries between domains that have previously limited who does what where. The theater of operations, in this view, is a unitary whole. The most useful capability needs to get the mission no matter what domain it technically comes from. Newly emerging technologies will enable the land force to operate in ways that, in the past, have been limited by the boundaries of its domain. These technologies will give the land force the ability to dominate not just the land but also project power into and across the other domains.

Palazzo and McClain contend that future land warfare forces

…must be designed, equipped, and trained to gain and maintain advantage across all domains and to understand and respond to the requirements of the future operating environment… Multi-domain battle will create options and opportunities for the joint force, while imposing multiple dilemmas on the adversary. Through land-to-sea, land-to-air, land-to-land, land-to-space, and land-to-cyberspace fires and effects, land forces can deter, deny, and defeat the adversary. This will allow the joint commander to seize, retain, and exploit the initiative.

As an example of their concept, Palazzo and McClain cite a combined, joint operation from the Pacific Theater in World War II:

Just after dawn on September 4, 1943, Australian soldiers of the 9th Division came ashore near Lae, Papua in the Australian Army’s first major amphibious operation since Gallipoli. Supporting them were U.S. naval forces from VII Amphibious Force. The next day, the 503rd U.S. Parachute Regiment seized the airfield at Nadzab to the West of Lae, which allowed the follow-on landing of the 7th Australian Division.  The Japanese defenders offered some resistance on the land, token resistance in the air, and no resistance at sea. Terrain was the main obstacle to Lae’s capture.

From the beginning, the allied plan for Lae was a joint one. The allies were able to get their forces across the approaches to the enemy’s position, establish secure points of entry, build up strength, and defeat the enemy because they dominated the three domains of war relevant at the time — land, sea, and air.

The concept of multi-domain warfare seems like a logical conceptualization for integrating land-based weapons of increased range and effect into the sorts of near-term future conflicts envisioned by U.S. policy-makers and defense analysts. It comports fairly seamlessly with the precepts of the Third Offset Strategy.

However, as has been observed with the Third Offset Strategy, this raises questions about the role of long-range fires in conflicts that do not involve near-peer adversaries, such as counterinsurgencies. Is an emphasis on technological determinism reducing the capabilities of land combat units to just what they shoot? Is the ability to take and hold ground an anachronism in anti-access/area-denial environments? Do long-range fires obviate the relationship between fire and maneuver in modern combat tactics? If even infantry squads are equipped with stand-off weapons, what is the future of close quarters combat?

Yet Another Tank Comparison

The National Interest just posted up another tank comparison article comparing the Russian T-14 to the Japanese Type 10 to the U.S. M-1: Russia’s T-14 Armata tank vs Japan’s Type 10 and America’s M1

I have a few comments:

  1. First, they actually don’t really compare their potential combat performance relative to each other, it is just a discussion of the three tanks in one article. This could have easily have been three separate articles.
  2. Not sure these tanks will face each other in the near future:
    1. The Amata could face an M-1 if we supply them to Ukraine or Georgia and they clash with Russia. Right now, they do not have M-1’s.
      1. Ukraine is using T-64s, T-72s, T-80s and T-84s, all Soviet designs or Ukrainian updates to Soviet designs. Ukraine is exporting T-84s.
      2. Georgia is using T-72s modified with the help of Israel.
    2.  The Amata could face an M-1 if Russia intervenes somewhere else in the world (Russian intervention away from its border areas is fairly rare…..Syria not withstanding).
    3. There is armed conflict between NATO and Russia (not very likely).
    4. I do not think there are any plans to export Moscow’s latest high-tech tank.
    5. Amata could face a Type 10 if Russia conflicts with Japan (again, not very likely).
    6. If Japan sell its tanks to other nations (has never happened before) than then they could later conflict with Russia.
    7. The Type 10 and M-1 facing each other is very unlikely.
  3. The T-14 is going to be around for a while. There are only 100 Amata’s slated for production right now. In light of the economy, we shall see if they get around to manufacturing the other 2,200.
  4. It is interesting that both Russia and Japan went with lighter tanks. This trend is noted but not analyzed.
  5. Otherwise it is a decent article.
  6. Perhaps The National Interest should do an article comparing the T-14 to the T-72 and T-84. This is a more likely scenario (not sure if they follow this blog).

 

 

Kursk Book Sold Out on Amazon

My book, Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka has sold out on Amazon.com. If you click on the Amazon.com link below the book picture, you will see the statement “This item is only available from third-party sellers.” There are 32 there, including 25 “Amazon warehousedeals” starting $205.31.

The book is still available from the publisher for the list price of $195.00 at: http://www.aberdeenbookstore.com/

You can also get to this link by clicking on picture of the book to your right.

Right now, there is no plans to re-stock Amazon.com. Aberdeen still has inventory.

 

Another Mosul Article

The Economist article on the Battle for Mosul: Imminent offensive hopes to end the jihadists reign of terror

Nothing earthshaking here but:

  1. “All but two if IS’s founding fathers are believed to have been killed…”
  2.  “‘It will be a military walk in the park’ says an Iraqi security official” (the rest of the article doesn’t really buy into that).

Also a Voice of America article on Mosul: Plans take shape for Iraqi assault on Mosul

An interesting tid-bit: “Twelve brigades of Iraq forces, each made up of 800 to 1,600 troops, are preparing for the assault.”

 

Anyhow, the subject of Mosul briefly came up in the presidential debate last night.

 

 

 

Japan’s Type 10 Tank

A brief description the Japanese Type 10 Tank: What makes Japan’s Type 10 tank so good

To date, I don’t think any of Japan’s post-WWII tanks have seen service outside of Japan. There is no real comparative analysis to other tanks here, except a general statement towards the end that its “advantages” over the M1 Abram and Leopard 2 are “relatively minimal.” This appears to be a classic case of Japanese understatement.

The Wikipedia description on the tank has an extended section labeled “concerns.” This is kind of unusual. For example, one states that: – Tank is claimed to “successfully downsized” from 50 tonnes to 44 tones from Type 90 with “modular armor” but how such a feat is achieved or whether the armor thickness or effectiveness is impacted or not is not mentioned.

Anyhow, Japan does maintain its independent armor design and manufacture capability, but this tank clearly does not have the armor protection of an M1 or Leopard 2.

Unmanned Ground Vehicles: Drones Are Not Just For Flying Anymore

The Remote Controlled Abrams Tank [Hammacher Schlemmer]
The Remote Controlled Abrams Tank [Hammacher Schlemmer]

Over at Defense One, Patrick Tucker reports that General Dynamics Land Systems has teamed up with Kairos Autonomi to develop kits that “can turn virtually anything with wheels or tracks into a remote-controlled car.” It is part of a business strategy “to meet the U.S. Army’s expanding demand for unmanned ground vehicles”

Kairos kits costing less than $30,000 each have been installed on disposable vehicles to create moving targets for shooting practice. According to a spokesman, General Dynamics has also adapted them to LAV-25 Light Armored Vehicles and M1126 Strykers.

Tucker quotes Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster (who else?), director of the U.S. Army’s Capabilities Integration Center, as saying that,

[G]etting remotely piloted and unmanned fighting vehicles out into the field is “something we really want to move forward on. What we want to do is get that kind of capability into soldiers’ hands early so we can refine the tactics, techniques and procedures, and then also consider enemy countermeasures and then build into the design of units that are autonomy enabled, build in the counter to those counters.”

According to General Dynamics Land Systems, the capability to turn any vehicle into a drone would give the U.S. an advantage over Russia, which has signaled its intent to automate versions of its T-14 Armata tank.

Light Tanks

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Well, we are back to looking at light tanks: Griffin light tank general dynamics

And also:  http://www.nextbigfuture.com/2016/10/m1-tank-120-mm-main-gun-placed-on-demo.html

We did do a report over a decade ago on lighter-weight armor at the request of the Deputy Undersecretary of the Army (Operations Research), Walt Hollis.

It is “MWA-2. The Historical Combat Effectiveness of Lighter-Weight Armored Forces, 6 August 2001 (CAA) – Pages: 121″ in our publication list: http://www.dupuyinstitute.org/tdipub3.htm

The pdf download file for it is here: http://www.dupuyinstitute.org/pdf/mwa-2lightarmor.pdf

Note that this report, which pre-dates our involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq, is discussing use of armor in Small Scale Contingency Operations (SSCO) and insurgencies, in addition to conventional wars.

This effort was not discussed in my upcoming book, War by Numbers. It may be picked up in a later book.

 

A Losing Record

wld

Spotted an article today on the History New Network (HNN): Win, Lose, or Draw?

This got my attention because I have outlined a book I may start work on next year (2017) called Future American Wars: Understanding the Next Twenty Years. This book is intended to complete a trio of books, one on understanding insurgencies (American’s Modern Wars), one on understanding conventional combat (War by Numbers — release date still August 2017) and this one covering the situation going forward.

My opening chapter is called: A Losing Record.

What they are recording in this article is that:

  1. For conventional conflict we have 3 wins, 1 loss and 1 tie.
  2. For other conflicts (what they call the “gray zone”) there are 9 wins, 8 losses and 42 draws.

Anyhow, haven’t checked the individual cases, and in some cases it depends on how your interpret win, lose and draw; but it does bring out a fundamental problem that I was partly trying to address in America’s Modern Wars, which is our track record in these conflicts is not great. My book primarily focused on Iraq and Afghanistan, which I why I felt I needed to third book to cover all the other cases of interventions, peacekeeping operations, and so forth.

Anyhow, the SOCOM briefing chart can be blown up to large size and is definitely worth looking at.

 

Colonel Toon

One more article from The National Interest, this one is from the past about the “famous” North Vietnamese Ace: Colonel Toon: The Legend the Vietnam Wars Mystery Fighter Ace

I remember one company even issued out a plastic model of the MIG flown by Col. Toon. Such is the stuff of legends.

Wikipedia has a list of Vietnam War flying aces: List of Vietnam War flying aces

The guy third on that list served 7 years in prison for taking $2.4 million in bribes.  A pretty sad end to a career. He also supposedly shot down Col. Toon (and they made a documentary of this dog fight).

 

More on Mosul Offensive

Ran across this very optimistic article on Mosul: Uncertainly Roils Planning for Mosul Liberation

As the sub-headline notes, “ISIS fighters fleeing Iraq’s second largest city as coalition forces prepare for tough fight.” If ISIL fighters are fleeing the city….it may not be that tough of a fight.

A few notes:

  1. U.S. Army asked for another 500 troops (I gather the real number is 615).
  2. U.S. “authorities” say they will need at least 24,000 trained, well equipped Iraqi soldiers (this is less than the 30,000 reported in some articles).
  3. Provides three specific accounts of recent ISIL losses in battle (from sources I don’t know). The two from air strikes that could easily be over-estimated, but the 40 lost from a counterattack in the Qayara area gets my attention. Was this a company-sized attack?
  4. Approximately 20,000 “terrorists” are in Mosul.
  5. There is a force of 1,000 “resistance fighters” in the city, meaning a Iraqi fifth column.

Article was written by someone named Douglas Burton who is: “…a former U.S. State Department official in Kirkuk, Iraq and writes news and commentary from Washington, D.C.”

Anyhow, unusually optimistic article. If true, Mosul could easily fall. We have seen before in Iraq and Afghanistan that some of these climatic fights are indeed anti-climatic as the defending force mostly bails out ahead of time.