Mystics & Statistics

Fifth Presentation on Antietam tonight, 10 November via Zoom at 700 PM

Fifth presentation on Antietam tonight, 10 November via Zoom at 7:00 PM (EST). It is the fifth in a series of seven or more presentations by Dr. James Slaughter on the Maryland Campaign of 1862. It addresses the actual fighting on September 17, 1862.

The current schedule is:

5. The Afternoon and Evening September 17, 1862 – `Monday, 700 PM, 10 November:
 
6. The Aftermath September 18 to 20 1862 – Monday, 700 PM, 24 November:
 
7. Reassessing the Battle – Monday, 700 PM, 8 December: 

 

The Fourth HAAC is done and Dr. Slaughter conducted a tour of the battlefield on 24 October.  The Fifth HAAC will probably be 20-22 October 2026 and the battlefield tour will be Fredericksburg.

NATO’s misconception of Soviet Military Strategy

At the 2024 HAAC, Walker Gargagliano gave a presentation on “NATO’s Misconception of Critique of Western Wargames of NATO-WP Conflict.” This has now been turned into a paper that was published by the Journal of Strategic Studies. It is behind a paywall, but many of those who have access to a college library can probably take a look at it. The article is here: A bolt from the blue: NATO’s misconception of Soviet military strategy: Journal of Strategic Studies: Vol 0, No 0 – Get Access

The abstract reads:

Throughout the Cold War, both NATO policymakers and the general public expressed a fear of a surprise Soviet attack, shaping their military stance, funding, and procurements in Europe to counter this eventuality. However, the type of war the Soviet Armed Forces planned to wage with the West was of a vastly different character than often feared. The concept of undertaking a strategic surprise attack in Europe was completely alien to Soviet theory, which rather conceptualized war as an extended affair requiring an extended mobilization process in a war which would be fought with total, rather than limited, objectives.

Leavenworth Master’s Thesis on “Forecasting Approaches in Operations Desert Sheild and Desert Storm

In 2020 Major Aaron F. Anderson, a student at the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College in Fort Leavenworth Kansas, published a master’s thesis called “Forecasting Approaches in Operations Desert Sheild and Desert Storm.” It was just sent to me.  I was not aware of it even though the author quoted my book War by Numbers extensively. It is referenced 19 times in the paper, so of course, I have a bias towards it.  Anyhow a link to the 45-page paper is here: Forecasting Approaches in Operations Desert Shield and Desert Storm

Paper’s abstract: 

Fourth Presentation on Antietam tonight, 27 Oct. via Zoom at 700 PM

Fourth presentation on Antietam tonight, 27 October via Zoom at 7:00 PM (EST). It is the fourth in a series of seven presentations by Dr. James Slaughter on the Maryland Campaign of 1862. It gets into the actual fighting on the morning of September 17, 1862.

The current schedule is:

4. The Morning Battle September 17, 1862 – Monday, 700 PM, 29 October:
 
5. The Afternoon and Evening September 17, 1862 – `Monday, 700 PM, 10 November:
 
6. The Aftermath September 18 to 20 1862 – Monday, 700 PM, 24 November:
 
7. Reassessing the Battle – Monday, 700 PM, 8 December: 

 

The Fourth HAAC is done and Dr. Slaughter conducted a tour of the battlefield on 24 October.  The Fifth HAAC will probably be 20-22 October and the battlefield tour will be Fredericksburg.

P.S. Here are the first two presentations on Antietam and the Maryland Campaign of 1862 done by Dr. James F. Slaughter III.

1. Understanding Antietam: Part 1: The Strategic Situation in Late Summer 1862: Antietam and the Maryland Campaign of 1862 (part 1)

2.  Action Prior to Antietam: South Mountain and Harper’s Ferry: Antietam and the Maryland Campaign of 1862 (part 2)

Fourth HAAC starts tomorrow (21-23 October) in Tysons Corner

The Fourth HAAC starts tomorrow, 21 -23 October, in Tysons Corner.

Schedule is here: HAAC 2025: Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) – The Dupuy Institute

Payment options are here: Paying for the Fourth HAAC (21-23 October) – The Dupuy Institute

Eventbrite is here: Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) Tickets, Tue, Oct 21, 2025 at 9:00 AM | Eventbrite

Conference description is here:  The Fourth HAAC is scheduled for 21 – 23 October 2025 – The Dupuy Institute

Fourth HAAC starts in five days (Tuesday, 21 October)

The Fourth HAAC starts in five days (Tuesday, 21 October in Tysons Corner).

 
It is 56 presentations. Still have three open slots if anyone wants to add something at the last minute.
 
 
 
If you haven’t paid yet, now is a good time.
 
 
 

Antietam presentation cancelled tonight, rescheduled in two weeks

Sorry, but people have real lives, so we have to cancel the Antietam presentation for tonight and reschedule it to Monday after next (27 October). The current schedule is:

4. The Morning Battle September 17, 1862 – Monday, 700 PM, 29 October:
 
5. The Afternoon and Evening September 17, 1862 – `Monday, 700 PM, 10 November:
 
6. The Aftermath September 18 to 20 1862 – Monday, 700 PM, 24 November:
 
7. Reassessing the Battle – Monday, 700 PM, 8 December: 

 

The Fourth HAAC is 21-23 October and Dr. Slaughter will be conducting a tour of the battlefield on 24 October (see below). 

 

Fourth HAAC:

The Fourth HAAC schedule: HAAC 2025: Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) – The Dupuy Institute

Paying for Fourth HAAC: Paying for the Fourth HAAC (21-23 October) – The Dupuy Institute and Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) Tickets, Tue, Oct 21, 2025 at 9:00 AM | Eventbrite.

Conference description is here: The Fourth HAAC is scheduled for 21 – 23 October 2025 – The Dupuy Institute

We do offer a guided tour of the Antietam battlefield at the end of the HAAC conference on Friday October 24. It will also be conducted by Dr. James Slaughter. 

 

P.S. Here are the first two presentations on Antietam and the Maryland Campaign of 1862 done by Dr. James F. Slaughter III.

1. Understanding Antietam: Part 1: The Strategic Situation in Late Summer 1862: Antietam and the Maryland Campaign of 1862 (part 1)

2.  Action Prior to Antietam: South Mountain and Harper’s Ferry: Antietam and the Maryland Campaign of 1862 (part 2)

Fourth HAAC Schedule is updated to add Medical Session

We have updated the Fouth HAAC Schedule to add a “Biological Warfare and Medical Analysis” session: HAAC 2025: Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) – The Dupuy Institute.

It is on the third day, Thursday, 23 October. We still have four open slots in that session that we are looking for presenters for. If you are interested in presenting, please email me at LawrenceTDI@aol.com.

Adding a session on “Biological Warfare and Medical Analysis” to the Fourth HAAC

We are adding a session on Thursday, October 23 on “Biological Warfare and Medical Analysis” to the Fourth HAAC. We have lined up two presentations for it and are looking for up to five more.  Please email me at LawrenceTDI@aol.com if you would be interested in presenting at this session on October 23.

Current HAAC schedule: HAAC 2025: Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) – The Dupuy Institute

Conference Description: The Fourth HAAC is scheduled for 21 – 23 October 2025 – The Dupuy Institute

Paying for the Fourth HAAC (21-23 October)

Unfortunately, we do have to collect payment for people attending the Fourth HAAC, as we have facilities we have to rent and do not have sponsorship. The payment is the same as it has been for the last three years, which is $150 to attend for all three days, or $90 if you are presenting, or $60 if you attend for one day, or $0 if attend for one day and present.

Anyhow, to pay for HAAC you can:

1. Pay by buying a ticket on Eventbrite: Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) Tickets, Tue, Oct 21, 2025 at 9:00 AM | Eventbrite

2. Pay through Paypal at SRichTDI@aol.com.

3. Call TDI at (703) 289-0007 and pay over the phone by credit card (or by email at LawrenceTDI@aol.com).

4. Mail a check to TDI (8215 Wolftrap Rd, Tysons Corner, VA, 22182).

5. Pay by credit card, check or cash at the conference on the first day of the conference.

6. Pay by credit card, check or cash at Rangos on any Tuesday evening. I will be there after 7:00.

 

 

Conference schedule is here: HAAC 2025: Fourth Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) – The Dupuy Institute

Conference description is here: The Fourth HAAC is scheduled for 21 – 23 October 2025 – The Dupuy Institute