Mystics & Statistics

Meanwhile back at the Tank Ditch

One other statement in the Lehmann account is that “These three [surviving tanks of the 6th panzer company] could fire at the Russians from a distance of ten to thirty meters and make every shell a direct hit because the Russians could not see through the dust and smoke that there were German tanks rolling along with them in the same direction. There were already nineteen Russian tanks standing burning on the battlefield when the Abteilung opened fire for the first time (footnote: “report from von Ribbentrop”).”

So, that account states that 19 Russian tanks were destroyed before the 5th and 7th company opened fire on them. Ribbentrop himself was credited with 14 tanks this day. Now, this could well be an exaggerated tally (and there are many examples of this), but let us take it seriously for a moment.

The attacking force was most of the 32nd Tank Brigade and the 25th Tank Brigade. The 25th Tank Brigade on 1600 11 July reported having 31 T-34s and 36 T-70s ready for action (they report 4 tanks in repair). The 32nd Tank Brigade on 1600 11 July reported having 60 T-34s and 4 T-70s. It is reported that at least 15 T-34s penetrated to the Komsomolets Sovkhoz in the original attack, where they were all destroyed. The 31st Tank Brigade (29 T-34s and 38 T-70s) was in the second echelon of the attack. So the total number of tanks in this initial attack force would have been 131 minus 15 detached = 116. 

The 25th Tank Brigade on 2400 12 July reported that 13 T-34s and 10 T-70s were irretrievably lost, 11 T-34s and 10 T-70s were knocked out or hit mines and 7 T-34s and 4 T-70s were out of action due to technical breakdowns. So out of 67 tanks, 44 combat losses, 11 breakdowns and 12 or so remaining ready-for-action. The brigade was operating on the “other side” of the railroad track, and also probably also encountered the German self-propelled AT guns (Marders).

The 32nd Tank Brigade on 2400 12 July reported that 54 T-34s were either burned, knocked out, or are in need of repair. So at best 6 T-34s and 4 T-70s ready for action. Of those 54 combat losses, we gather at least 15 were lost at Komsomolets Sovkhoz, which is out of the area under discussion here.

If 11 of the 55 losses (20%) of the 25th Tank Brigade were mechanical, then it appears that there were also mechanical breakdowns among the remaining 54 – 15 lost T-34s. A straight line estimate would say 8. So total combat losses in these two tank brigades in an around the tank fields appear to be around 44 + 54 -15 – 8 = 75. Now, if Ribbentrop and company got 19 of them then we are looking at 56 other tanks put out action in combat by either 5th and 7th panzer company, artillery, antitank guns, aircraft, mines (they do specifically mention mines in the Soviet reports), German infantry on height 252.2 (which was also attacked by tanks), German Marders, Soviet aircraft (the 32nd Tank Brigade reports that it was attacked at 1300 by Soviet assault aircraft), or by operations later in the day, etc. So how many of these 56 other lost tanks actually drove into the tank ditch? I am guessing not a lot. 

Added to that, the battle continued throughout the day, and clearly while many of these tanks were lost in the morning attack, some were lost later in the day.

Now, there are some accounts that seem to want to want to have lots of tanks rolling into tank ditches. But between the 6th Panzer Company, the rest of the II Panzer Battalion, the German artillery, German antitank guns, German air, Soviet air, mines, Marders and German infantry… then, who was left to roll into the tank ditch? Certainly not a lot.

Again, the tank ditch story is sometimes overstated. There is probably a reason why Captain Rudolf von Ribbentrop never mentions any Soviet tanks driving into the tank ditch in his account of the action.

 

Other related posts:

Basis of the Tank Ditch Story of 12 July 1943 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Was the Tank Ditch encountered in the morning, the afternoon, or both? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

The Importance of the Tank Ditch | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Did the LSSAH have 3 panzer panzer companies, 4 panzer companies or two panzer battalions in July 1943? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Did II Panzer Battalion LSSAH have 33 tanks on 11 July 1943? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Coronavirus in the DC area – weekly update 49

Colorized picture from California, 1918. Source: reddit

In general the number of cases from coronavirus remains the same as it was last week. It is still high and needs to come down further. This is weekly update number 49 on the coronavirus in the DC area.

This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 5,774 new cases. There were 5,255 new cases last week. Seven weeks ago it was 18,934 new cases. Eighteen weeks ago there were only 4,256 new cases.

Almost all of Europe is still struggling with controlling the spread of the disease. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, is still struggling with 20K new cases reported for yesterday. The UK is actually bringing it under control for a change (6K yesterday). Its high was 68K new cases on 8 January. Yesterday they reported for France (23K), Spain (4K), Germany (7K) and Russia (9K). The U.S., which has never gotten the virus under control, had 57K new cases yesterday. This is about the same as last week (55K) but an improvement from the high of 300K new cases on 2 January. This is in contrast to places like China (26 cases), Japan (1,175), South Korea (470), Taiwan (1), Vietnam (2), Singapore (6), Australia (13) and New Zealand (1).

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 cases thirty-six weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 10:26 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….40,767……41,910…….1,037
Arlington, VA……………..237,521..…..13,215…..13,481…..…..240
Alexandria VA……………160,530…….10,352…..10,468………..127
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795.……66,825…..67,945…….1,027
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772.………..353………360….………9
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574..………..492………501……..…16
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850…….23,183…..23,589……….260

Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011……..39,472….40,055……….459
Manassas…………………..41,641..………4,010……4,054…………42
Manassas Park………….…17,307….……1,126……1,129…………12

Stafford Country, VA……..149,960………9,620……9,715…………68
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144……..1,785……1,798…………22
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……63,499…..64,273…….1,435
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……73,509…..74,704…….1,346
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…..348,208…353,982…….6,100

 

This is a 2% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 1.72%. This last week there were 193 new fatalities reported out of 5,774 new cases. This is the highest we have seen. This is a mortality rate of 3.34%, but this high figure is clearly a result of the declining infection rate while the mortality figures are lagged. The population known to have been infected is 6.60% or one confirmed case for every 15 people. The actual rate of infection may be higher, perhaps as much as four times higher.

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. Most of them were emptied out due to Thanksgiving and the upcoming Christmas holidays. Most of these universities went back in session in mid-January, except for UVA, which started its sessions a the beginning of February.

Harrisonburg, VA (pop. 54K) is reporting 5,822 cases (5,733 last week) and 94 deaths (up 23 in the last two weeks), while Rockingham County (pop. 81K), where the town resides, is reporting 6,135 cases (6,061 last week) and 101 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located.

Charlottesville, VA (pop. 47K) has reported 3,679 cases (3,636 last week) and 46 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA (pop. 109K), where the town resides, has reported 4,979 cases (4,867 last week) and 74 deaths (up 26 in the last two weeks). This is where UVA is located.

UVA had good covid tracker website: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. Five weeks ago they recorded 82 new cases from Monday through Friday. Four weeks ago they recorded 238 new cases from Monday through Friday. Three weeks ago it was 737 new cases from Monday through Friday. Needless to say, they put in more stringent lock-down procedures, and  the number of cases have been in decline since a peak of 229 new cases on 2/16. Two weeks ago there were 186 new cases from Monday through Friday and this last week there were 34 new cases from Monday through Friday. They have now relaxed some of the lock down procedures. What is surprising about this is how rapidly it rose and how rapidly it declined. This Monday (3/8) there were only 6 new cases from a peak of 229 less than three weeks ago. It sort of shows what can be done with quick reaction and actual lock-down procedures.

Lynchburg (pop. 82K), the home of Liberty University, has reported 6,948 cases (6,922 last week) cases and 141 deaths (81 deaths these in the last seven weeks).

Further south, Montgomery County, VA (pop. 99K) has reported 8,133 cases (7,751 last week) and 89 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had 1,537 cases yesterday. Last week it as 1,385 cases. Six weeks ago it was 4,707. For a long time, it pretty much ran 1,000 cases a day, neither going up or going down.

Dare County, North Carolina (pop. 37K), a beach area in the outer banks, has 1,878 cases (1,862 last week) and 8 deaths.

Dupuy Mentioned in Dispatches – 1

A friend just sent me a recent article from the Strategy Page that mentions Trevor Dupuy’s work: Leadership: Meaningful Measures of Military Might

Trevor Dupuy is mentioned four times in the eleventh paragraph of the article:

  1. “One notable practitioner of this was military historian and World War II artillery officer Trevor Dupuy.” 
  2. “For example, Trevor Dupuy undertook a closer examination of combat records and found, and documented, that German troops generally outfought their opponents.”
  3. “If it hadn’t been for the research of American historian Trevor Dupuy in the 1970s and 80s, these critical differences might still sit unnoticed in musty archives.”
  4. “Dupuy’s calculations brought forth the reasons why some allied, German, Russian and Japanese divisions were better than others:”

Anyhow, don’t know who the author is, but appreciate the mention. The Strategy Page is run by Jim Dunnigan, Austin Bay, Al Nofi, Dan Masterson and Stephen V. Cole and others.

Summation of Argument on LSSAH PzRgt Organization in July 1943

In the case of how the LSSAH Panzer Regiment was organized in July 1943 (as there is no clear documentation of this), there are three options:

1) The regiment consisted of only the II Panzer Battalion with 5th, 6th, and 7th panzer companies, and the 13th panzer company for the Tigers.

2) The II Panzer Battalion had the 8th panzer company active.

3) The regiment consisted of the II Panzer Battalion with the 5th, 6th, and 7th panzer companies, and the 143h panzer company for the Tigers, and an ersatz I Panzer Battalion of maybe three companies.

Let me briefly outline the strengths and weaknesses of these three arguments:

  1. The three medium panzer company argument:
    1. Strengths
      1. This is the traditional position.
      2. This is what all the post-war narratives say.
      3. There is nothing that solidly disproves this.
    2. Weaknesses
      1. This makes little sense with 90 Pz III and IVs and 9 Panzer III Command tanks (in addition to the Pz I command tank).
      2. The companies would have had 31 tanks to start the battle with.
        1. But Ribbentrop says they started with 22.
      3. On 12 July, if Ribbentrop had 7 tanks, then the other two companies had at least 22 tanks each. 
  2. The four medium panzer company argument
    1. Strengths
      1. You can almost fit the 90 tanks into four companies at 22 tanks a company.
      2.  Compromise answer that avoids creating an ersatz Panzer battalion.
    2. Weaknesses
      1. Not documented in any unit records I have seen.
      2. The one source mentioning the 8th company specifically states that it was not used for Citadel due to “lack of tanks”.
  3. The two battalion argument
    1. Strengths:
      1. Accounts for all the tanks on 4 July.
      2. Accounts for all the tanks on 11 July (based upon Lehmann’s claim that II Panzer Battalion had 33 tanks).
      3. This is what Das Reich did.
      4. The “I Panzer Battalion” is actually referenced twice on 8 July 1943 in German records.
    2. Weaknesses
      1. Was never mentioned in any of the post-war accounts.

So readers…did the LSSAH Panzer Regiment in July 1943 have 1) only II Battalion of three medium companies, 2) only II Battalion of four medium companies, 3) or an ersatz I Battalion in addition to the II Battalion of three medium panzer companies?

Recent posts on the subject:

Did the LSSAH have 3 panzer panzer companies, 4 panzer companies or two panzer battalions in July 1943? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Did II Panzer Battalion LSSAH have 33 tanks on 11 July 1943? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Coronavirus in the DC area – weekly update 48

Colorized picture from California, 1918. Source: reddit

Well, in general the number of cases from coronavirus has continued at a lower rate but we do not see a continual decline everywhere. It did decline locally, but not for all of the United States. It is still high and needs to come down further. This is weekly update number 48 on the coronavirus in the DC area.

This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by only 5,255 new cases. There were 5,977 new cases last week. Six weeks ago it was 18,934 new cases. Seventeen weeks ago there were only 4,256 new cases.

Almost all of Europe is still struggling with controlling the spread of the disease. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, is still struggling with 17K new cases reported for yesterday.  The UK is actually bringing it under control for a change (6K yesterday). Its high was 68K new cases on 8 January. Yesterday they reported for France (23K), Spain (16K on 3/1), Germany (6K) and Russia (10K). The U.S., which has never gotten the virus under control, had 55K new cases yesterday. This is improvement from last week (71K) and an improvement from the high of 300K new cases on 2 January. This is in contrast to places like China (23 cases), Japan (922), South Korea (444), Taiwan (1 on 2/28), Vietnam (11), Singapore (8), Australia (2) and New Zealand (2). Still, the number of new cases is down almost everywhere, which is good news.

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 cases thirty-five weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 9:25 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….39,844….40,767……..1,019
Arlington, VA……………..237,521..…..12,974….13,215………..232
Alexandria VA……………160,530…….10,229….10,352………..120
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795.……65,718….66,825………..956
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772.……….342……….353…………..8
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574..……….482………492…………13
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850…….22,816…..23,183………246

Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011…….38,920…..39,472………424
Manassas…………………..41,641..……..3,971…….4,010……….40
Manassas Park………….…17,307….…..1,116……..1,126……….11

Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……..9,418…..…9,620………68
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144…….1,747……..1,785………21
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……62,767…….63,499….1,418
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……72,609…….73,509….1,331
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…..342,953…..348,208….5,907

 

This is a 2% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 1.70%. This last week there were 265 new fatalities reported out of 5,255 new cases. This is the highest we have seen. This is a mortality rate of 5.04%, but the high figure is clearly a result of the declining infection rate while the mortality figures are lagged. The population known to have been infected is 6.49% or one confirmed case for every 15 people. The actual rate of infection may be higher, perhaps as much as 4 times higher.

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. Most of them were emptied out due to Thanksgiving and the upcoming Christmas holidays. Most of these universities went back in session in mid-January, except for UVA, which started its sessions a the beginning of February.

Harrisonburg, VA (pop. 54K) is reporting 5,733 cases (5,652 last week) and 85 deaths (up 14 from last week), while Rockingham County (pop. 81K), where the town resides, is reporting 6,061 cases (5,991 last week) and 93 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located.

Charlottesville, VA (pop. 47K) has reported 3,636 cases (3,529 last week) and 47 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA (pop. 109K), where the town resides, has reported 4,867 cases (4,759 last week) and 62 deaths (up 14 from last week). This is where UVA is located.

UVA had good covid tracker website: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. Four weeks ago they recorded 82 new cases from Monday through Friday. Three weeks ago they recorded 238 new cases from Monday through Friday. Two weeks ago it was 737 new cases from Monday through Friday. Needless to say, they put in more stringent lock-down procedures, and  the number of cases have been in decline since a peak of 229 new cases on 2/16. This lasts week there were 186 new cases from Monday through Friday. They have now relaxed some of the lock down procedures. What is surprising about this is how rapidly is rose and how rapidly it declined. This Monday (3/1) there were only 13 new cases from a peak of 229 less than two weeks ago. It sort of shows what can be done with quick reaction and actual lock-down procedures. Needless to say, I am not too impressed with what they are doing in Texas right now.

Lynchburg (pop. 82K), the home of Liberty University, has reported  6,922 cases (6,867 last week) cases and 125 deaths (65 deaths these last six weeks).

Further south, Montgomery County, VA (pop. 99K) has reported 7,751 cases (7,478 last week) and 80 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had 1,385 cases yesterday. Last week it as 1,769 cases. Five weeks ago it was 4,707. For a long time, it pretty much ran 1,000 cases a day, neither going up or going down.

Dare County, North Carolina (pop. 37K), a beach area in the outer banks, has 1,862 cases (1,838 last week) and 8 deaths.

Two other TMCI Reports

The Military Conflict Institute shut down early 2020. An associate of mine has been trying to chase down all of their work.

There are these three reports:

The Three TMCI Reports | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

There was this brief 20-page paper written by the late Roger Mickelson: /tardir/tiffs/a396349.tiff (dtic.mil)

One notes that Roger Mickelson titled this report “War on Terrorists” vice the “War on Terrorism.”

The fifth report or book is not known to me. Is it “The Classics of Military Thought: Appreciations and Agenda.” published in 1985 by John E. Tashjean under the name of the Military Conflict Institute. John Tashjean had written a number of articles on Clausewitz from 1979-1992.

The classics of military thought : apreciations and agenda (Book, 1985) [WorldCat.org]

There is a copy at University of Oxford, only some 3,600 miles from here. Apparently no one else on this planet has a copy. Could any of our UK readers by so kind as to scare up a hard or electronic copy of this?

Thanks.

P.S.: TMCI is officially closing this year | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

 

Bibliography on Clausewitz

This bibliography on Carl von Clausewitz, a name that I assume is known to most of our readers, was just brought to my attention. It was assembled by Christopher Bassford, who is not known to me. 

Clausewitz Bibliography (English) (clausewitzstudies.org)

A few comments:

  1. He does not list Understanding War by Trevor N. Dupuy. That is kind of big shortfall, especially I think it was the best book of the 90+ that Trevor Dupuy authored or co-authored.
  2. He does not list my War by Numbers, which is built upon Trevor Dupuy’s work and of course, a little of Clausewitz’s.
  3. There are a number of other articles and books by Trevor Dupuy that reference Clausewitz and it applications. Some of these should probably also be picked up, depending on what his standards are for inclusion in his listing.

Attrition has been discounted to $877.95

One can find a copy of Attrition: Forecasting Battle Casualties and Equipment Losses in Modern War on Amazon.com for $877.95. It used to sell for $890.

Attrition for $900 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

On the other hand, we are still selling new copies for the list price of $19.95. See here: http://www.dupuyinstitute.org/booksfs.htm

Ordering information is here: http://www.dupuyinstitute.org/order.htm

Did II Panzer Battalion LSSAH have 33 tanks on 11 July 1943?

There is a post-war account (published in 1990) by the LSSAH Division chief of staff Major Rudolf Lehmann where he states that the II Panzer Battalion had 33 panzers. That is sometimes interpreted as meaning that the afternoon or evening of 11 July 1943 there remained near height 252.2 around 33 panzers. This would be II Panzer Battalion, the Battalion HQ and possibly the Panzer Regiment HQ. He specifically states: “Sturmbannfuehrer Gross [commander of II Panzer Battalion] managed to bring this battle to a successful conclusion despite the crushing numerical superiority of the enemy; he had at this point only thirty-three Panzers.” (page 236). I doubt this is a number he remembered of the top of his head 47 years after the fact, so I assume he got it from a diary or notes or a document from the time. I have not seen this figure documented anywhere else.

Now, this could mean that they had 33 tanks on the evening of the 11th or before the fighting on the 12th or after the fighting on the morning of the 12th. If they had 33 tanks after the fighting on the morning of the 12th, then this may imply that they started the battle with 37 tanks. Now, this quote is placed in the narrative for 12 July right after discussing the 6th panzer company having seven tanks and having lost 4 in their retreat. Regardless it appears the II Panzer Battalion had either 33 or 37 tanks. The problem is that the Panzer Regiment is reported to have 69 tanks on the evening of 11 July.

Height 252.2 is just to the southwest of Prokhorovka. The panzer were then pulled back to behind the tank ditch except for Captain Rudolf von Ribbentrop’s 6th Panzer Company. Captain Ribbentrop was the son of the Nazi foreign minister. So the 6th Panzer Company remained near 252.2 while the 5th and 7th Panzer Companies moved further back to the rear. According to Lehmann, these two panzer companies were located around 800 meters to the rear.

According to Ribbentrop, the 6th panzer company had 7 tanks on the morning of 12 July. Lehmann also states that. One could infer from this that the 5th and 7th panzer companies each had around 12 to 16 tanks, less 2 or 3 tanks for the battalion command (7 + 12 + 12 + 2 = 33 or 7 – 4 + 15 + 16 + 3 = 37)  

Now, according to the Kursk Data Base, as of the evening of 11 July the LSSAH Division had 2 Panzer Is, 4 Panzer IIs, 1 Panzer III short, 4 Panzer III longs, 7 Panzer III Command tanks, 47 Panzer IV longs, and 4 Panzer VIs for a total of 69 tanks in the panzer regiment (see footnote 34, page 165, of The Battle of Prokhorovka).

So, 69 tanks in the panzer regiment and the II Panzer Battalion appears to have had 33 or 37 tanks. There are 4 Tigers for 13th Panzer Company, which was not with them. That would leave 28 to 32 or so tanks for an ersatz I Panzer Battalion and the panzer regiment headquarters (2 or 3 command tanks and probably the 2 Panzer Is and 4 Panzer IIs). This leaves two Panzer III Command, four Panzer III longs and 13 to 18 Panzer IVs for an ersatz I Panzer Battalion.  

Now, I have been arguing for a while that the LSSAH may well have had two operational panzer battalions at Kursk. This debate first started as a series of emails between Niklas Zetterling and I, and continued as a series of posts and debated between Dr. Wheatley and I. If Lehmann’s account is correct, and if Ribbentrop’s account on 12 July is correct, then this would strongly argue that there was indeed an ersatz I Panzer Battalion at Prokhorovka.

My previous post on the subject is:

Did the LSSAH have 3 panzer panzer companies, 4 panzer companies or two panzer battalions in July 1943? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

 

P.S. Lehmann’s book is references in July an 8th Panzer Company. It is identified on page 450 as under command of “Ost. Amberger” with the note “The 8. Kompanie did not take part on Operation Zitadelle because of an insufficient number of panzers.” With the LSSAH Division starting the battle with 90 Panzer IIIs and IVs, this statement does not make sense unless there was an ersatz first panzer battalion.