Mystics & Statistics

Coronavirus in the DC area – weekly update 56

Apr 28, 2021
Christopher A. Lawrence

Colorized picture from California, 1918. Source: reddit

This is weekly update number 56 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) decreased ever so slightly to 4,620 new cases. There were 4,753 new cases last week. Fourteen weeks ago it was 18,934 new cases.

Almost all of Europe is still struggling with controlling the spread of the disease. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, reported 10K new cases for yesterday. The UK looks like it has brought it under control with 3K new cases yesterday. Its high was 68K new cases on 8 January. France now has reported more cases of Coronavirus than the UK or Russia, making them the fourth highest in the world (after U.S., India and Brazil). Their death count of 103,764 (population 67.4 million) is the eighth highest reported deaths in the world (behind U.S., Brazil, Mexico, India, UK, Italy and Russia). Still, it is less than the UK with 127,734 dead in a population of 66.8 million or Italy with 119,912 deaths in a population of 60.3 million. Yesterday they reported for France 30K new cases. They appear to have lost control of the situation. The new case count for Spain is 8K, for Germany it is 26K and Russia remains at 8K (not that I particularly trust the Russian figures). The U.S. (population 331.4 million), which has never gotten the virus under control, had 51K new cases yesterday, which is an improvement over last week. Our high was 300K new cases on 2 January. This is in contrast to places like China (20 cases), Japan (4,966), South Korea (775), Taiwan (6), Vietnam (5), Singapore (12), Australia (33) and New Zealand (8 on 4/26).

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 cases forty-three weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of today, 11:20 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….46,869……47,533……1,104
Arlington, VA……………..237,521..….14,861……15,020…….…252
Alexandria VA……………160,530……11,491..….11,595………..133
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795.…..74,708..….75,478……..1,070
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772.………415……….423……………8
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574..………539……….544………….19
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850……26,795…..27,159………..274

Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011…….43,957….44,414…..……479
Manassas…………………..41,641..……..4,278……4,297…………47
Manassas Park………….…17,307….……1,184……1,195…….…..12

Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……10,789…..10,979…….….74
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144…….2,004…….2,054……..…22
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……68,945..…69,624……1,521
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……81,523…..82,663……1,442
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…..388,358…392,978……6,457

This is a 1% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 1.64%. This last week there were 52 new fatalities reported out of 4,620 new cases. This is a mortality rate of 1.13%. The population known to have been infected is 7.32% or one confirmed case for every 14 people. The actual rate of infection may be higher, perhaps as much as four times higher. I don’t have a report of how many people have been vaccinated in this DC area, but I have heard that half the U.S. has already gotten their first shot. So we are certainly looking at 50-60% who have had their first shot (I have had both of mine) and we are looking at 60-70% of the DC area having either been infected or vaccinated.

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville, Liberty University (LU) at Lynchburg and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. Most of them were emptied out due to Thanksgiving and the Christmas holidays. Most of these universities went back in session in mid-January, except for UVA, which started its sessions at the beginning of February. I do not report on places like William and Mary (W&M) and Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU) as they are located in or near major population centers.

Harrisonburg, VA (pop. 54K) is reporting 6,434 cases (6,377 last week) and 94 deaths, while Rockingham County (pop. 81K), where the town resides, is reporting 6,636 cases (6,572 last week) and 105 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located.

Charlottesville, VA (pop. 47K) has reported 3,993 cases (3,944 last week) and 55 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA (pop. 109K), where the town resides, has reported 5,673 cases (5,555 last week) and 82 deaths. This is where UVA is located. One notes with similar populations the comparison between Harrisonburg/Rockingham vs Charlottesville/Albemarle.

For UVA (https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker), after peaking at 229 new cases on 2/16, they had imposed new restrictions. The number of cases dropped precipitously and they partially eased up the restrictions. This Monday (4/26) there were only 4 new cases. It does show what can be done with quick reaction and actual lock-down procedures. They are also starting to vaccinate the students there. They have also this week loosened the indoor restrictions to 25 students from the previous restriction of 6 students. We shall see if the number of cases increase as a result.

Lynchburg (pop. 82K), the home of Liberty University, has reported 7,549 cases (7,465 last week) cases and 146 deaths.

Further south, Montgomery County, VA (pop. 99K) has reported 9,226 cases (9,140 last week) and 89 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

I do report the population, number of cases and number of deaths for each of these areas. This is because this is somewhat of a “laboratory-like” situation where you have four universities of 23K to 36K students located in rural areas of around 100K population. They do have different rates per capita in cases and in deaths.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had 1,091 new cases yesterday. Last week it as 1,2368 cases. Thirteen weeks ago it was 4,707. For a long time, it pretty much ran 1,000 cases a day, neither going up or going down.

Dare County, North Carolina (pop. 37K), a beach area in the outer banks, has 2,074 cases (2,054 last week) and 10 deaths.

Posted inCoronavirus

Accounting for Death in War

Apr 27, 2021
Christopher A. Lawrence

Just spotted on Twitter that Dr. Michael Spagat is offering a free course Accounting for Death in Warfare: Separating Fact from Fiction. It starts 24 May. I gather it is free and anyone can sign up. See: www.futurelearn.com

I am a big fan of Michael Spagat’s work, having blogged about it before:

TDI Friday Read: Mike Spagat’s Economics of Warfare Lectures & Commentaries | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Anyhow, I did confirm with Dr. Spagat that it is open to anyone and free.

Posted inResearch & Analysis

Over 120,000 Russian troops?

Apr 21, 2021
Christopher A. Lawrence

Ukraine is saying that Russia will soon have over 120,000 troops on its border. See: https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-reach-over-120-000-122611381.html

“The figure….is higher than Ukraine’s previous estimate of 80,000 Russian troops, of which 50,000 were new deployments.”

Do I read that to mean that they started with 30,000 troops and have added over 90,000 more troops?

Coronavirus in the DC area – weekly update 55

Apr 21, 2021
Christopher A. Lawrence

This is weekly update number 55 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) decreased to 4,753 new cases. There were 6,734 new cases last week. Thirteen weeks ago it was 18,934 new cases.

Almost all of Europe is still struggling with controlling the spread of the disease. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, reported 12K new cases for yesterday. The UK looks like it has brought it under control with 3K new cases yesterday. Its high was 68K new cases on 8 January. France now has reported more cases of Coronavirus than the UK or Russia, making them the fourth highest in the world (after U.S., India and Brazil). Their death count of 101,714 (population 67.4 million) is the eighth highest reported deaths in the world (behind U.S., Brazil, Mexico, India, UK, Italy and Russia). Still, it is less than the UK with 127,557 dead in a population of 66.8 million or Italy with 117,633 deaths in a population of 60.3 million. Yesterday they reported for France 44K new cases. They appear to have lost control of the situation. The new case count for Spain is 21K on 2/19, for Germany it is 31K and Russia remains at 8K (not that I particularly trust the Russian figures). The U.S. (population 331.4 million), which has never gotten the virus under control, had 55K new cases yesterday, which is an improvement over last week. Our high was 300K new cases on 2 January. This is in contrast to places like China (29 cases), Japan (4,973 and on the rise), South Korea (731, same as last week), Taiwan (2), Vietnam (9), Singapore (14), Australia (20) and New Zealand (2).

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 cases forty-two weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of today, 10:20 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….46,209……46,869……1,097
Arlington, VA……………..237,521..….14,697…….14,861…..…249
Alexandria VA……………160,530……11,348…….11,491..……133
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795.…..73,751…….74,708..…1,064
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772.………406………..415……..….9
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574..………532……….539…….….18
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850……26,379……26,795……..274

Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011……43,368…….43,957……..480
Manassas…………………..41,641..…….4,242…..…4,278…….…46
Manassas Park………….…17,307….…..1,177…….1,184………..12

Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……10,560…..10,789…….….72
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144…….1,961…….2,004…….…22
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……68,377…..68,945……1,501
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……80,598…..81,523…..1,428
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…..383,605…388,358…..6,405

This is a 1% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 1.65%. This last week there were 47 new fatalities reported out of 4,753 new cases. This is a mortality rate of 0.99%. The population known to have been infected is 7.24% or one confirmed case for every 14 people. The actual rate of infection may be higher, perhaps as much as four times higher. I don’t have a report of how many people have been vaccinated in this DC area, but I have heard that half the U.S. has already gotten their first shot. So we are certainly looking at 50-60% who have had their first shot (I have had both of mine) and we are looking at 60-70% of the DC area having either been infected or vaccinated.

Harrisonburg, VA (pop. 54K) is reporting 6,377 cases (6,305 last week) and 94 deaths, while Rockingham County (pop. 81K), where the town resides, is reporting 6,572 cases (6,477 last week) and 104 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located.

Charlottesville, VA (pop. 47K) has reported 3,944 cases (3,936 last week) and 55 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA (pop. 109K), where the town resides, has reported 5,555 cases (5,448 last week) and 82 deaths. This is where UVA is located. One notes with similar populations the comparison between Harrisonburg/Rockingham vs Charlottesville/Albemarle.

Lynchburg (pop. 82K), the home of Liberty University, has reported 7,465 cases (7,415 last week) cases and 145 deaths.

Further south, Montgomery County, VA (pop. 99K) has reported 9,140 cases (9,021 last week) and 88 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had 1,236 new cases yesterday. Last week it as 2,048 cases. Twelve weeks ago it was 4,707. For a long time, it pretty much ran 1,000 cases a day, neither going up or going down.

Dare County, North Carolina (pop. 37K), a beach area in the outer banks, has 2,054 cases (2,026 last week) and 9 deaths.

Posted inCoronavirus

150,000 Russian Troops?

Apr 20, 2021
Christopher A. Lawrence

Well, the European Union’s (EU) top diplomat is now saying that “It is more than 150,000 Russian troops massing on the Ukrainian borders and in Crimea.” This is an increase from the 93,000 figure being bandied around last week.

Not sure of the source for his figures, perhaps from Ukraine.

Anyhow, 150K vs Ukraine’s 255K? Starting to look serious.

Related articles and blog post are here:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-has-150000-troops-near-ukraine-s-borders-eu-estimates/ar-BB1fOVQ9

83,000 Russian Troops? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Ukraine vs Russia | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Posted inEastern Europe, Net Assessment, Russia

Invading Taiwan in the next six years – wherefore and why?

Last month Admiral Phillip Davidson, Indo-Pacific Command, said that “I worry that they’re [China] accelerating their ambitions to supplant the United States and our leadership role in the rules-based international order. They’ve long said they want to do that by 2050, I’m worried about them moving that target closer. Taiwan is clearly one of their ambitions before that, and I think the threat is manifest during this decade. In fact, in the next six years.”

Now, I don’t know exactly what he meant by that statement, but I now see some buzz about China invading Taiwan in the next six years. For example: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N7TbBZlCTdg. Note that Gen. Jack Keene does not actually say that they will be invading Taiwan in six years.

Also see:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/10/china-could-invade-taiwan-in-next-six-years-top-us-admiral-warns

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/23/taiwan-china-threat-admiral-john-aquilino

Note that Admiral John Aquilino “…disagreed with the outgoing Indo-Pacom commander Adm Philip Davidson’s recent comments that China could attempt to attack and take over Taiwan as soon as six years from now.”

Anyhow, is this really likely? I am going to briefly discuss the subject in two posts, this post focused on the “wherefores and why” of such an operation and a later post on the doing an actual invasion.

A few caveats: 1) I am no China expert, 2) I have never been involved is gaming or analyzing the defense of Taiwan, 3) I have no real “insider” knowledge of the subject at hand, and 4) I am not an economist.

I do find it a little difficult to believe that the Chinese, whose economy is heavily dependent on trade, is going to do something that would seriously disrupt this trade. The economy is 20 percent dependent on “Exports of good and services.” Their five major trading partners are the U.S., EU. Japan, S. Korea and Taiwan (!!!). The 2018 figures show total trade of 4,107.1 billion. Of that the U.S. makes up 583.3 (14%), the EU makes up 573.08 (14%), Japan makes up 303.0 (7%), Hong Kong makes up 286.5 (7%), South Korea makes up 280.2 (7%), Taiwan makes 199.9 (5%), Australia makes up 136.4 (3%) and Vietnam makes up 121.9 (3%). Other trade partners account for around 40% percent of the total. Almost all of it must be transported by sea or air. Overland trading partners to China are limited primarily to Russia (84.2), North Korea and Mongolia, and places like Vietnam (121.9), Laos, Thailand, Burma, Thailand, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and nominally Afghanistan and of course, the subcontinent of Pakistan, India and Nepal via Tibet (India is 84.3). Only three of these places is listed as among their top 20 trading partners (Vietnam, India and Russia, which make up 7% of their trade, assuming they were doing it all overland).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_partners_of_China

Now, the question is whether or not their would be a full economic blockade. The international response was tepid when Russia seized Crimea. But seizing Taiwan is a whole lot bigger bite (24 million vice 2.4 million). Certainly they will loose the trade with Taiwan and the trade with the U.S., and maybe South Korea, Japan and EU. As taking Taiwan is almost invariably a “hot war” scenario, hard to see how things would continue as business as normal. Added to that, the U.S. Navy has absolutely superiority in the deep seas, so the U.S. could establish an effective blockade (See: U.S. Fleet versus Chinese Fleet | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org))

So as a minimum, we are probably looking at China losing 60% to 80% of its trade. This is at least 12-16% of its economy. As things in economies tend to ripple (like local consumer spending and services) then the potential economic impact on China is very significant.

Are they really looking to destroy their trade in the next six years? It will have a big impact on their economy. Trade embargoes tend to drag on for a while. After the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre, the trade embargoes were limited, and by the mid-1990s China there was no clear long-term impact. But, the trade impact of directly invading Taiwan would probably be worse than Tianamen Square, and it would involve direct military engagement with one or more of its major trading partners.

Added to that, around 60% of their oil is imported. This is done by sea. We could also interdict that. Now, their neighbor Russia does have oil, so this can be partially compensated for over time.

So, by embargo and even more effectively, by naval interdiction (which is certainly within our capability), we could possibly temporarily shut down 80% of their trade and 60% of their oil. If that was the case, then we are probably looking at something more like a 30-40% decline in their GDP. This depressed economy that could continue for several years.

When economies stagnate or decline, governments often get overthrown. Is this something they are willing to risk for the sake of taking Taiwan?

So the big question is: Is taking Taiwan so important to the current leadership of China that they were willing to take the hit and the risk that goes with it?

Posted inChina, Net Assessment, Sea Warfare
10 Comments

The Prokhorovka! game maps – comments?

I have done four posts on the game maps for the upcoming Advanced Squad Leader (ASL) module Prokhorovka!. I have not been involved in the developing the game, but found the effort worthwhile and interesting. What I was hoping to get back from those posts were comments on the game maps themselves, what was done right and well, and more importantly, what was not done right or needed to be corrected. So far, I have not gotten any comments on the game maps. I have provided some of my own to the designers, and in the case of the Storozhevoye map, it was re-worked before I posted it.

So anyhow, for the sake of our game designers, could we get some comments please.

Andreyevka Map for the game Prokhorovka! | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Stalinskii Map for the game Prokhorovka! | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Oktyabrskii Map for the game Prokhorovka! | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Storozhevoye Map for the game Prokhorovka! | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Other references:

Advancing Fire

PROKHOROVKA! (advancingfire.com)

Did the LSSAH have 3 panzer panzer companies, 4 panzer companies or two panzer battalions in July 1943? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Posted inEastern Front, Kursk, Modeling, Simulation & Wargaming, World War II
2 Comments

Coronavirus in the DC area – weekly update 54

Apr 14, 2021
Christopher A. Lawrence

This is weekly update number 54 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased to 6,734 new cases. There were 5,615 new cases last week. Twelve weeks ago it was 18,934 new cases.

Almost all of Europe is still struggling with controlling the spread of the disease. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, reported 13K new cases for yesterday. The UK looks like it has brought it under control with 3K new cases yesterday. Its high was 68K new cases on 8 January. France now has reported more cases of Coronavirus than the UK or Russia, making them the fourth highest in the world (after U.S., India and Brazil). Their death count of 99,639 (population 67.4 million) is the eighth highest reported deaths in the world (behind U.S., Brazil, Mexico, India, UK, Italy and Russia). Still, it is less than the UK with 127,407 dead in a population of 66.8 million or Italy with 115,088 deaths in a population of 60.3 million. Yesterday they reported for France 39K. They appear to have lost control of the situation. The new case count for Spain is 6K, Germany is 29K and Russia is 8K (not that I particularly trust the Russian figures). The U.S. (population 331.4 million), which has never gotten the virus under control, had 78K new cases yesterday. This is worse than last week but an improvement from the high of 300K new cases on 2 January. This is in contrast to places like China (25 cases), Japan (3,449 and on the rise), South Korea (731 and also on the rise), Taiwan (4), Vietnam (9), Singapore (14), Australia (21) and New Zealand (2).

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 cases forty-one weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of today, 11:20 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….45,328…..46,209………1,088
Arlington, VA……………..237,521..….14,464……14,697…………249
Alexandria VA……………160,530……11,100……11,348…………130
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795.…..72,390……73,751………1,055
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772.………402……….406………..….9
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574..………527……….532………….18
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850……25,693……26,379………..273

Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011……42,552……43,368………..477
Manassas…………………..41,641..…….4,200……..4,242……….…45
Manassas Park………….…17,307….…..1,176……..1,177…………12

Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……10,332……10,560……..….72
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144…….1,916……..1,961…………22
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……67,505……68,377…….1,493
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……79,286……80,598…….1,415
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…..376,871…..383,605…….6,358

This is a 2% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 1.66%. This last week there were 57 new fatalities reported out of 6,734 new cases. This is a mortality rate of 0.85%. The population known to have been infected is 7.15% or one confirmed case for every 14 people. The actual rate of infection may be higher, perhaps as much as four times higher. I don’t have a good report of how many people have been vaccinated in this DC area, but I gather we are nearing 50% who have had their first shot (I have had both of mine). So we are looking at 50-70% of the DC area having either been infected or vaccinated.

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville. Liberty University (LU) at Lynchburg and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. Most of them were emptied out due to Thanksgiving and the Christmas holidays. Most of these universities went back in session in mid-January, except for UVA, which started its sessions at the beginning of February. I do not report on places like William and Mary (W&M) and VCU as they are located in or near major population centers.

Harrisonburg, VA (pop. 54K) is reporting 6,305 cases (6,246 last week) and 95 deaths, while Rockingham County (pop. 81K), where the town resides, is reporting 6,477 cases (6,404 last week) and 103 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located.

Charlottesville, VA (pop. 47K) has reported 3,936 cases (3,895 last week) and 55 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA (pop. 109K), where the town resides, has reported 5,448 cases (5,348 last week) and 82 deaths. This is where UVA is located.

Lynchburg (pop. 82K), the home of Liberty University, has reported 7,415 cases (7,275 last week) cases and 144 deaths.

Further south, Montgomery County, VA (pop. 99K) has reported 9,021 cases (8,896 last week) and 88 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had 2,048 new cases yesterday. Last week it as 1,434 cases. Eleven weeks ago it was 4,707. For a long time, it pretty much ran 1,000 cases a day, neither going up or going down.

Dare County, North Carolina (pop. 37K), a beach area in the outer banks, has 2,026 cases (2,012 last week) and 8 deaths.

Posted inCoronavirus

83,000 Russian Troops?

On Monday, apparently Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s spokeswoman told AFP that Russia now has 41,000 troops on Ukraine’s eastern border and 42,000 soldiers on the Crimean peninsula.

Lets take that at face value for the moment. Ukraine has around 255K troops in active duty. So 83K vs 255K? Not exactly overwhelming force, yet. In response the United States is sending 500 additional troops to Germany. Now, last year we had 36K troops in Germany, but President Trump ordered a draw-down of 12K. I gather the drawdown was never really done and President Biden froze it in February of this year.

So, we are probably not looking at tanks rolling towards Kiev next week, but that does not ,mean there may not be trouble. In addition to Russian troops, there are also the armed militias of the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic.

Related articles and bog posts are here:

https://www.ibtimes.com/two-ukrainian-soldiers-killed-war-torn-separatist-east-3179386

Ukraine vs Russia | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Pentagon chief: US sending 500 more troops to Germany (msn.com)

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/537374-biden-to-freeze-germany-drawdown

Posted inEastern Europe, Net Assessment, Russia
3 Comments

The ORO/RAC/GRC Library

I noticed my posts in 2017 on the HERO and SAIC Libraries got a couple of hits a week or so ago. I was actually planning on continuing posting on this subject at the time, but got sidetracked. So, let me take a moment now to post on another disappeared library.

The Operations Research Office (ORO) was the Army’s RAND. Formed in 1948 under the leadership of Ellis Johnson, it grew to considerable size (220 in June 1952) providing studies and analysis for the U.S. Army. ORO was tied to Johns Hopkins University. But, the leadership of ORO had a contentious relationship with the army, so the Army decided in 1961 to dissolve it and reconstitute it under new leadership. The army set up a new corporation called Research Analysis Corporation (RAC) and hired back everyone at ORO but the senior management. It was also claimed that RAC stood for “Relax and Cooperate.”

RAC continued the work of ORO and in fact they were functionally the same organization. Under these two organizations, it included developing the first Army combat models (Carmonette and Atlas) in addition to field analysis of the Korean and Vietnam wars. They also had a historical analysis capability, having employed Dr. Hugh Cole,. the person who managed and wrote part of the Army “Green Book” series, the official history of the U.S. Army in World War II.

The Army decided to then build its own RAND. This was the Concepts Analysis Agency (CAA) founded in January 1973. My father was one of army officers assigned to this new outfit, which is the connection that eventually led me into this business. As I had a strong interest in military history and wargaming as a teenager, my father working at the Army’s premier wargaming shop got my interest. I often discussed with him the work they were doing, and in particular, his rather negative evaluation of the combat models they were using (in particular CEM – Concepts Evaluation Model). The Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base (ACSDB) that I managed in 1987-1989 was for the purpose of validating CEM.

With the Army having created its own RAND, RAC as an independent FFRDC (Federally Funded Research and Development Center) was no longer needed. They therefore mutated in a private contractor called General Research Corporation (GRC). They inherited most of the staff and the ORO/RAC library. Dr. Hugh Cole retired but ended up working for us on the ACSDB as a consultant, along with Charles McDonald.

GRC continued doing business, although I do not know what that was, as I never intersected with them. I started working in this business in 1987 at Trevor Dupuy’s DMSI (Data Memory Systems, Inc.) doing contract work for CAA among others. CAA eventually changed its name to Center for Army Analysis (CAA).

GRC about 15 or so years ago (operating from memory here) was bought out by AT&T defense systems (AT&T = old Bell Telephone). I also had never intersected with them. They inherited the ORO/RAC/GRC library and took over the GRC building in Tysons Corner. When I heard that they had shut the library down, I payed a visit to their office.

It turns out that this library, built up over 50+ years of research, was indeed shut down. It was taking up space and they decided they needed another conference room! So, they told the employees they could take whatever they wanted from the library and threw the rest away. So, the library and all of its material was dissolved and thrown away.

So… where does one find ORO/RAC/GRC material? Well, I have a rather thick bibliography listing all the ORO/RAC reports. Forget how I scored that. It is a unique item and I don’t know of anyone else who has one. On the other hand, if you ask me to find it, I don’t know in which of the 80+ boxes of books it is in that I have stashed away. I am not going to even try at this point to find, as they are stacked up (although it is good exercise). Of course, ORO/RAC/GRC submitted their reports to DTIC and NTIS. But, as I pointed out in the my post on TDI Reports at DTIC that only about 40 percent of HERO reports are listed in DTC and 0 of the 80 TDI reports are listed there. Now, I also have all the HERO reports in those stacks of boxes I have stashed away. A friend of mine at CMH (Center for Military History) did inform me that some/all of the ORO reports are sitting in archived files of one DOD agency in the national archives, but these section of files are still classified and not available to most researchers. Also, they are difficult to locate and access. CAA also has its own library, but I do not know the state or extent of it. If CAA needs a HERO/DMSI/TNDA/TDI report, they invariably end up asking me, which does not give me a lot of confidence. I did ask a senior analysis at CAA once where he would go to get an ORO/RAC report, and he told me he would just call the library at GRC. Obviously that is no longer an option.

I do not know the state of the CAA library or its holdings. When the GRC library was shut down I did flag the issue to the director of CAA. The corrective action I believe would have been to assemble a small team to create a definitive Army Studies and Analysis Research Library to collect all the ORO/RAC/GRC and HERO/DMSI/TNDA/TDI and CORG/CDEC/CAA and RAND Arroyo and other relative studies in one place (probably the CAA library). This effort was not acted on.

It is probably still possible to do at this point, but as the “graybeards” are disappearing from the business, and it is amazing what they keep stored in their files cabinets and basements, then it will get harder to do over time.

TDI Reports at DTIC | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

The HERO Library | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

The SAIC Library | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Less related posts:

Company Commander | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Validation Data Bases Available (Ardennes) | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Historians and the Early Era of U.S. Army Operations Research | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

The Use of the Two Campaign Data Bases | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Some sources:

A History of the Department of Defense Federally Funded Research and Development Centers (I am actually the author of this, although I am listed as a researcher): https://www.princeton.edu/~ota/disk1/1995/9501/9501.PDF and here: https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc39765/m1/1/

History of Operations Research in the United States Army, Volume I: 1942-1962: CMH Publications Catalog – HISTORY OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH IN THE UNITED STATES ARMY, VOLUME 1: 1942-1962