The Dupuy Institute (TDI) are sitting on a number of large combat databases that are unique to us and are company proprietary. For obvious reasons they will stay that way for the foreseeable future.
The original database of battles came to be called the Land Warfare Data Base (LWDB). It was also called the CHASE database by CAA. It consisted of 601 or 605 engagements from 1600-1973. It covered a lot of periods and lot of different engagement sizes, ranging from very large battles of hundreds of thousand a side to small company-sized actions. The length of battles range from a day to several months (some of the World War I battles like the Somme).
From that database, which is publicly available, we created a whole series of databases totaling some 1200 engagements. There are discussed in some depth in past posts.
Part of the reason for this post is that I am in a discussion with someone who is doing analysis based upon the much older 601 case database. Considering the degree of expansion and improvement, including corrections to some of the engagements, this does not seem a good use of their time., especially as we have so greatly expanded the number engagements from 1943 and on.
Now, I did use some of these databases for my book War by Numbers. I am also using them for my follow-up book, currently titled More War by Numbers. So the analysis I have done based upon them is available. I have also posted parts of the 192 Kursk engagements in my first Kursk book and 76 of them in my Prokhorovka book. None of these engagements were in the original LWDB.
If people want to use the TDI databases for their own independent analysis, they will need to find the proper funding so as to purchase or get access to these databases.
Colorized picture from California, 1918. Source: reddit
The number of cases and deaths from coronavirus has declined but is still very high. This is weekly update number 45 on the coronavirus in the DC area.
This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 10,871. There were 11,498 new cases last week. Three weeks ago it was 18,934 new cases. Fourteen weeks ago there were only 4,256 new cases. We look to be about six months way from having a vaccine available for everyone.
Almost all of Europe is still struggling with controlling the spread of the disease. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, is still struggling with 11K new cases reported for yesterday. It remains high in the UK (12K yesterday) although it continues to drop from its high of 68K new cases a day on 8 January. Yesterday they reported for France (19K), Spain (16K), Germany (6K) and Russia (15K). The U.S., which has never gotten the virus under control, had 95K new cases yesterday. This is improvement for a high of 300K new cases on 2 January. This is in contrast to places like China (40 cases), Japan (1,558), South Korea (443), Taiwan (5), Vietnam (14), Singapore (11), Australia (11) and New Zealand (2). Still, the number of new cases is down almost everywhere, which is good news.
The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 cases thirty-two weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 11:22 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE
……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….37,199……38,438…….965 Arlington, VA……………..237,521..…..11,867……12,364…….209 Alexandria VA……………160,530………9,544……..9,798…….105 Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795.……60,265……62,445…….721 Falls Church, VA…………..14,772.…….…296………..318…….…7 Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574..….……437………..448……..12 Loudoun County, VA….…406,850….…20,791……21,808…….191
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011……..35,693…..37,184….…327 Manassas…………………..41,641..………3,753……3,866……….33 Manassas Park………….…17,307….……1,073……1,101…………8 Stafford Country, VA……..149,960….……8,123……8,727……….53 Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144………1,569……1,668……….14 Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……..59,439…..61,001.…1,360 Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……..68,490….70,244..…1,272 Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…….318,539..329,410.….5,277
This is a 3% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 1.60%. This last week, there were 65 new fatalities reported out of 10,871 new cases. This is a mortality rate of 0.60%. The population known to have been infected is 6.14% or one confirmed case for every 16 people. The actual rate of infection has been higher, perhaps as much as 4 times higher.
Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. Most of them were emptied out due to Thanksgiving and the upcoming Christmas holidays. Most of these universities went back in session in mid-January, except for UVA, which started its sessions last week.
Harrisonburg, VA (pop. 54K) is reporting 5,504 cases (5,364 last week) and 67 deaths (up 19 these last four weeks!), while Rockingham County (pop. 81K), where the town resides, is reporting 5,796 cases (5,589 last week) and 76 deaths (up 22 these last four weeks!). This is where James Madison University is located.
Charlottesville, VA (pop. 47K) has 2,883 cases (2,752 last week) and 40 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA (pop. 109K), where the town resides, has 4,132 cases (3,966 last week) and 39 deaths. This is where UVA is located. UVA had good covid tracker website: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker.
Lynchburg (pop. 82K), the home of Liberty University, has 6,581 cases (6,279 last week) cases and 85 deaths (25 deaths these last three weeks).
Further south, Montgomery County, VA (pop. 99K) has 6,685 cases (6,414 last week) and 70 deaths (up 22 these last four weeks!). This is where Virginia Tech is located.
Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had 3,291 cases yesterday. Last week is as 2,740 cases. Two weeks ago it was 4,707. For a long time, it pretty much ran 1,000 cases a day, neither going up or going down.
Dare County, North Carolina (pop. 37K), a beach area in the outer banks, has 1,776 cases (1,701 last week) and 7 deaths. With summer over, not sure why this continues to grow. It is growing a lot faster than during the summer.
*This excludes the USS Bonhomme Richard (LHD-6), which is still on the rolls but because of the fire of 12 July 2020 is clearly never returning to duty.
Colorized picture from California, 1918. Source: reddit
The number of cases and deaths from coronavirus has declined but is still very high. This is weekly update number 44 on the coronavirus in the DC area.
This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 11,498 new cases. Last week it was 16,058 new cases and the week before it was 18,934 new cases. Thirteen weeks ago there were only 4,256 new cases. We look to be about six months way from having a vaccine available for everyone.
Almost all of Europe is still struggling with controlling the spread of the disease. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, is still struggling with 10K new cases reported for yesterday. It remains high in the UK (17K yesterday) although it continues to drop from its high of 68K new cases on 8 January. Yesterday they reported for France (23K), Spain (29K), Germany (8K) and Russia (16K). The U.S., which has never gotten the virus under control, had 114K new cases yesterday. This is improvement for a high of 300K new cases on 2 January. This is in contrast to places like China (50 cases), Japan (2,313), South Korea (467), Taiwan (3), Vietnam (32), Singapore (19), Australia (6) and New Zealand (3 cases on 1 Feb).
The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 cases thirty-one weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 11:21 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE
……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….35,865…..37,199……..926 Arlington, VA……………..237,521..…..11,414…..11,867……..203 Alexandria VA……………160,530………9,236…….9,544……..104 Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795.……58,092….60,265………792 Falls Church, VA…………..14,772.…….….285………296…………6 Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574..….…….413………437………..12 Loudoun County, VA….…406,850….…19,508….20,791………184
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011…….34,314…..35,693………317 Manassas…………………..41,641..……..3,608……3,753………..33 Manassas Park………….…17,307….……1,062……1,073……..…8 Stafford Country, VA……..149,960….…..7,586……8,123……….50 Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144……..1,468……1,569……….14 Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567…….57,685….59,439……1,320 Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308…….66,535.…68,490……1,243 Total……….…….….……..5,365,425……307,041…318,539……5,212
This is a 4% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 1.64%. This last week, there were 167 new fatalities reported out of 11,498 new cases. This is a mortality rate of 1.45%. This high mortality is probably as a result of the number of cases dropping, while the mortality numbers are tied to the number of cases several weeks earlier. The population known to have been infected is 5.94% or one confirmed case for every 17 people. The actual rate of infection has been higher, perhaps as much as 4 times higher.
Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. Most of them were emptied out due to Thanksgiving and the upcoming Christmas holidays. Most of these universities went back in session in mid-January, except for UVA, which started its sessions this week.
Harrisonburg, VA (pop. 54K) is reporting 5,364 cases (5,223 last week) and 63 deaths (up 15 these last three weeks!), while Rockingham County (pop. 81K), where the town resides, is reporting 5,589 cases (5,434 last week) and 74 deaths (up 20 these last three weeks!). This is where James Madison University is located.
Charlottesville, VA (pop. 47K) has 2,752 cases (2,681 last week) and 39 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA (pop. 109K), where the town resides, has 3,966 cases (3,789 last week) and 36 deaths. This is where UVA is located. UVA had good covid tracker website: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. This is definitely worth looking at, as you can see how they were able to bring the virus under control with a student body of 25,000.
Lynchburg (pop. 82K), the home of Liberty University, has 6,279 cases (6,003 last week) cases and 79 deaths (19 deaths these last two weeks).
Further south, Montgomery County, VA (pop. 99K) has 6,414 cases (6,188 last week) and 65 deaths (up 17 these last three weeks!). This is where Virginia Tech is located.
Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had 2,740 cases yesterday. Last week it was 4,707. For a long time, it pretty much ran 1,000 cases a day, neither going up or going down.
Dare County, North Carolina (pop. 37K), a beach area in the outer banks, has 1,701 cases (1,629 last week) and 6 deaths. With summer over, not sure why this continues to grow. It is growing a lot faster than during the summer.
The original goal was to inoculate 20 million people by the end of 2020 and then 30 million more per month for subsequent months.
According to one of the trackers I am watching (Bloomberg), as of 1 Feb. we have administered almost 33 million doses. The last couple of days we have been administering 1.3 or more million doses a day. This is better than the original needed goal of a million a day. Of course, most of these cases are the first of two doses, although I gather there are around six million people who have now received both doses. It does look like this is now on track.
Well, not really week 2 of protests in Russia as there has been protests going on in Kharborovsk since July 2020. There are also still scattered protests in Belarus and there have been pro-Belarus (anti-Lukashenko) protests in St. Petersburg. Protests are actually becoming quite common in the FSU (Former Soviet Union).
Anyhow, certainly tens of thousands of protestors showed up across the nation over the weekend. The Russian government sealed off downtown Moscow, so as to avoid the optics of tens of thousands of protestors in and around Pushkin Square. Over 5,000 protesters were detained/arrested in rather heavy handed police tactics.
Meanwhile, the Aleksei Navalny video has 107 million views.
Picture above is from St. Petersburg, courtesy of Reuters/Anton Vaganov.
Anyhow, it is hard to see how this resolves. It is large and virulent and in the middle of winter. What reforms and changes to does Putin offer to calm down the protests? An anti-corruption campaign when he is clearly at the center of it? Sell the palace that he supposedly does not own? Release Navalny? Institute democratic reforms? I suspect he has no choice but to continue arresting protestors each weekend until they tire. This could go on for a while. I also fully expect the protests in Belarus to continue. I am guessing that more people will start coming out as the weather gets better. Also, the protests have occurred in over 70 cities in Russia, so it is kind of widespread.
Not sure this is the end of Putin’s regime….but I do think he and his large collection of cronies will be pretty uncomfortable for a while. They got too corrupt for their own good.
The above photo was the one I used for that post a year ago. A few quotes from that post:
“This is tragic but the worse may yet to come. The human toll is going to tragically get worse. The virus apparently can spread before symptoms show. One wonder how bad it is going to be before it is contained.”
and:
“There could also be a significant economic cost”
and:
“Don’t want to be alarmist, but this does concern me. We have not had a major world-wide “plague” since the Spanish flu epidemic of 1918-1920.”
and:
“The Coronavirus will hopefully be contained soon like SARS was, but the scenarios are frightening if it is not.”
I ended up doing a lot of other posts about the Coronavirus over this last year. In part, as a historian I am kind of aware of the significance impact various plagues have had over time. While we have not had a lot of experiences with such problems in the last hundred years, there is no lack of exposure to them in history. I could argue that if people had really properly studied their history and applied lessons from it, less people would have died. On the other hand, I am not sure I want to make that argument in a briefing to DOD on the value of historical analysis.
As of 2017, U.S. GDP was $19.391 trillion according to the World Bank. The Chinese economy was $12.238 trillion. This was 63% of the U.S. economy.
Now?
Using the World Bank figures for 2019 it is 21.428 trillion for the United States. The Chinese economy is $14.343 trillion. This is 67% of the U.S. economy and these figures pre-date the Covid crisis.
IMF has estimated 2020 figures. I have no idea how relevant or meaningful they area. For the US. it is $%20.807 trillion while for China it is 14.861 trillion. This is 71% of the U.S. economy. Don’t know how much of the Coronavirus issues affected these 2020 IMF figures. China started dealing with Coronavirus in January 2020 while it only became an issue in the United States in March of 2020. China has since brought it under control and are seeing about 200 cases a day. The United States has failed to bring it under control and are looking at something like 180,000 new cases each day. As such, I would expect that China GDP is growing faster than the United States and this will probably also be the case for 2021.
Colorized picture from California, 1918. Source: reddit
The number of cases and deaths from coronavirus has declined nationally. This is weekly update number 43 on the coronavirus in the DC area. Decided to maintain my very current and relevant picture.
This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 16,058 new cases. Last week it was 18,934 new cases. Twelve weeks ago there were only 4,256 new cases. We are still at least six months way from having a vaccine available for everyone.
Almost all of Europe is still struggling with controlling the spread of the disease. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, is still struggling with 11K new cases reported for yesterday. It remains high in the UK (20K yesterday) although much better. Yesterday they reported for France (22K), Spain (36K), Germany (9K) and Russia (18K). The U.S., which has never gotten the virus under control, had 147K new cases yesterday. This is improvement. This is in contrast to places like China (139 cases), Japan (3,861), South Korea (554), Taiwan (1), Vietnam (2), Singapore (14), Australia (6) and New Zealand (5).
The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 cases thirty weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 4:22 PM: Johns Hopkins CSSE
……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….34,403……35,865…..895 Arlington, VA……………..237,521..…..10,860……11,414…..197 Alexandria VA……………160,530………8,810…….9,236…..102 Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795.……54,918……58,092…..762 Falls Church, VA…………..14,772.….……243……….285………6 Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574..….……373………..413…….10 Loudoun County, VA….…406,850….…17,236……19,508…..173
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011…….32,237……34,314…..295 Manassas…………………..41,641..…….3,458.,…….3,608…….33 Manassas Park………….…17,307….…..1,041…..….1,062………8 Stafford Country, VA……..149,960….…..6,887……..7,586……45 Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144……..1,310……..1,468…….14 Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……55,203……57,685…1,292 Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……63,994……66,535…1,213 Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…290,973…..307,041…5,045
This is a 6% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 1.64%. This last week, there were 178 new fatalities reported out of 16,058 new cases. This is a mortality rate of 1.11%. The population known to have been infected is 5.72% or one confirmed case for every 17 people. The actual rate of infection has been higher, perhaps as much as 4 times higher.
Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. Most of them were emptied out due to Thanksgiving and the upcoming Christmas holidays. Most of these universities are back in session except for UVA.
Harrisonburg, VA (pop. 54K) is reporting 5,223 cases (5,080 last week) and 59 deaths (up 11 these last two weeks!), while Rockingham County (pop. 81K), where the town resides, is reporting 5,434 cases (5,097 last week) and 69 deaths (up 15 these last two weeks!). This is where James Madison University is located.
Charlottesville, VA (pop. 47K) has 2,681 cases (2,586 last week) and 38 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA (pop. 109K), where the town resides, has 3,789 cases (3,575 last week) and 35 deaths. This is where UVA is located. UVA had good covid tracker website: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. This is definitely worth looking at, as you can see how they were able to bring the virus under control with a student body of 25,000.
Lynchburg (pop. 82K), the home of Liberty University, has 6,003 cases (5,514 last week) cases and 68 deaths (8 deaths this week).
Further south, Montgomery County, VA (pop. 99K) has 6,188 cases (5,894 last week) and 61 deaths (up 13 these last two weeks!). This is where Virginia Tech is located.
Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had 4,707 cases yesterday. Last week it was 4,526. For a long time, it pretty much ran 1,000 cases a day, neither going up or going down.
Dare County, North Carolina (pop. 37K), a beach area in the outer banks, has 1,629 cases (1,523 last week) and 6 deaths. With summer over, not sure why this continues to grow. It is growing a lot faster than during the summer.
