I gather that we are on the path for Ukraine to NATO at some point in the future. It is clearly something that the current government of Ukraine wants, although Russia is hostile to the idea and the west is wary. Ukraine was in the Partnership for Peace program and working towards joining NATO until Viktor Yanokovich was elected President of Ukraine in 2010. He shut that effort down but was thrown out of power in 2014. The efforts of Ukraine to join NATO has now been re-activated.
Now, it is clear that Ukraine is back on the path to joining NATO and probably will at some point. Needless to say, Russia is not very happy about this. I gather the real question is whether this will be something that will be done sometime in the next 10-20 years or whether it is something that needs to be accelerated to maybe the next three years.
Russia’s saber rattling last week does sort of make the argument for three years vice 20 years. On the other hand, NATO has become an alliance of 30 western democracies, although a couple are what I call “troubled democracies” (Turkey and Hungary). Gone are the days when dictatorships like Portugal were part of NATO. So, it is now sort of expected that countries that join will have democratic structures and low levels of corruption. Ukraine posses several problems in that it is still a fledgling democracy, there is a lot of corruption, there are two “people’s republics” in an armed warlike state, and part of Ukraine (Crimea) has been occupied by Russia.
If a country joins NATO that is fighting a separatist movement, does NATO have an obligation to help? England was fighting in Northern Ireland for three decades and it was never a NATO problem. On the other hand, if a country joins NATO that has territory occupied by Russia, what is NATO’s responsibility for that? NATO is a defensive alliance. Does Ukraine joining NATO give it a free hand to try to change the status of Donetsk, Lugansk or Crimea? What if Russia responds? What are the requirements of the alliance then? Maybe entry into NATO needs to be delayed until these issues are resolved. As we have seen through, these can sometimes take a while (the Transnistia republic in Moldovia has been independent for 30 years, Taiwan has been independent for over 70 years).
So, should Ukraine join NATO 1. In the near team (3-5 years)? 2. In the long team (10-20 years)? 3. Not until all major outstanding international issues are resolved (which I gather means not in our lifetime)? 4. Never?
Well, it looks like Russia has pulled back some of its troops and equipment for the moment. So a lot of noise, but no action.
One does wonder why this occurred. Possibilities include:
1. They wanted to make a little noise to make some point to Ukraine. Possibly anger over President Zelensky banning three pro-Russian media channels and imposing sanctions against individuals and companies.
2. They wanted to make a little noise to tell the Biden administration that they needed to respect them (especially after Biden’s comments about Putin and the additional sanctions imposed).
3. They wanted a public test of their ability to respond to a crisis in Ukraine/Crimea.
4. They wanted a public test of their ability to respond to a crisis in Kaliningrad, their isolated city between Lithuania and Poland.
5. This may have been a “routine” training exercise.
6. They wanted to distract from the internal issues, especially Navalny and their shutting down of protests.
7. They just wanted to make a little noise so people still “respect” them.
8. Some or all of the above.
Anyhow, looks like things will be “peaceful” for another year. That said, there is still two armed and active “People’s Republics” in Donetsk and Lugansk, and there is still sniping and shelling and other activities. Ukraine is still losing a couple of soldiers of month from all this. They are still armed and active war zones.
Colorized picture from California, 1918. Source: reddit
This is weekly update number 56 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) decreased ever so slightly to 4,620 new cases. There were 4,753 new cases last week. Fourteen weeks ago it was 18,934 new cases.
Almost all of Europe is still struggling with controlling the spread of the disease. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, reported 10K new cases for yesterday. The UK looks like it has brought it under control with 3K new cases yesterday. Its high was 68K new cases on 8 January. France now has reported more cases of Coronavirus than the UK or Russia, making them the fourth highest in the world (after U.S., India and Brazil). Their death count of 103,764 (population 67.4 million) is the eighth highest reported deaths in the world (behind U.S., Brazil, Mexico, India, UK, Italy and Russia). Still, it is less than the UK with 127,734 dead in a population of 66.8 million or Italy with 119,912 deaths in a population of 60.3 million. Yesterday they reported for France 30K new cases. They appear to have lost control of the situation. The new case count for Spain is 8K, for Germany it is 26K and Russia remains at 8K (not that I particularly trust the Russian figures). The U.S. (population 331.4 million), which has never gotten the virus under control, had 51K new cases yesterday, which is an improvement over last week. Our high was 300K new cases on 2 January. This is in contrast to places like China (20 cases), Japan (4,966), South Korea (775), Taiwan (6), Vietnam (5), Singapore (12), Australia (33) and New Zealand (8 on 4/26).
The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 cases forty-three weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of today, 11:20 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE
……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….46,869……47,533……1,104 Arlington, VA……………..237,521..….14,861……15,020…….…252 Alexandria VA……………160,530……11,491..….11,595………..133 Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795.…..74,708..….75,478……..1,070 Falls Church, VA…………..14,772.………415……….423……………8 Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574..………539……….544………….19 Loudoun County, VA….…406,850……26,795…..27,159………..274
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011…….43,957….44,414…..……479 Manassas…………………..41,641..……..4,278……4,297…………47 Manassas Park………….…17,307….……1,184……1,195…….…..12
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……10,789…..10,979…….….74 Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144…….2,004…….2,054……..…22 Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……68,945..…69,624……1,521 Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……81,523…..82,663……1,442 Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…..388,358…392,978……6,457
This is a 1% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 1.64%. This last week there were 52 new fatalities reported out of 4,620 new cases. This is a mortality rate of 1.13%. The population known to have been infected is 7.32% or one confirmed case for every 14 people. The actual rate of infection may be higher, perhaps as much as four times higher. I don’t have a report of how many people have been vaccinated in this DC area, but I have heard that half the U.S. has already gotten their first shot. So we are certainly looking at 50-60% who have had their first shot (I have had both of mine) and we are looking at 60-70% of the DC area having either been infected or vaccinated.
Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville, Liberty University (LU) at Lynchburg and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. Most of them were emptied out due to Thanksgiving and the Christmas holidays. Most of these universities went back in session in mid-January, except for UVA, which started its sessions at the beginning of February. I do not report on places like William and Mary (W&M) and Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU) as they are located in or near major population centers.
Harrisonburg, VA (pop. 54K) is reporting 6,434 cases (6,377 last week) and 94 deaths, while Rockingham County (pop. 81K), where the town resides, is reporting 6,636 cases (6,572 last week) and 105 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located.
Charlottesville, VA (pop. 47K) has reported 3,993 cases (3,944 last week) and 55 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA (pop. 109K), where the town resides, has reported 5,673 cases (5,555 last week) and 82 deaths. This is where UVA is located. One notes with similar populations the comparison between Harrisonburg/Rockingham vs Charlottesville/Albemarle.
For UVA (https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker), after peaking at 229 new cases on 2/16, they had imposed new restrictions. The number of cases dropped precipitously and they partially eased up the restrictions. This Monday (4/26) there were only 4 new cases. It does show what can be done with quick reaction and actual lock-down procedures. They are also starting to vaccinate the students there. They have also this week loosened the indoor restrictions to 25 students from the previous restriction of 6 students. We shall see if the number of cases increase as a result.
Lynchburg (pop. 82K), the home of Liberty University, has reported 7,549 cases (7,465 last week) cases and 146 deaths.
Further south, Montgomery County, VA (pop. 99K) has reported 9,226 cases (9,140 last week) and 89 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.
I do report the population, number of cases and number of deaths for each of these areas. This is because this is somewhat of a “laboratory-like” situation where you have four universities of 23K to 36K students located in rural areas of around 100K population. They do have different rates per capita in cases and in deaths.
Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had 1,091 new cases yesterday. Last week it as 1,2368 cases. Thirteen weeks ago it was 4,707. For a long time, it pretty much ran 1,000 cases a day, neither going up or going down.
Dare County, North Carolina (pop. 37K), a beach area in the outer banks, has 2,074 cases (2,054 last week) and 10 deaths.
Just spotted on Twitter that Dr. Michael Spagat is offering a free course Accounting for Death in Warfare: Separating Fact from Fiction. It starts 24 May. I gather it is free and anyone can sign up. See: www.futurelearn.com
I am a big fan of Michael Spagat’s work, having blogged about it before:
Colorized picture from California, 1918. Source: reddit
This is weekly update number 55 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) decreased to 4,753 new cases. There were 6,734 new cases last week. Thirteen weeks ago it was 18,934 new cases.
Almost all of Europe is still struggling with controlling the spread of the disease. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, reported 12K new cases for yesterday. The UK looks like it has brought it under control with 3K new cases yesterday. Its high was 68K new cases on 8 January. France now has reported more cases of Coronavirus than the UK or Russia, making them the fourth highest in the world (after U.S., India and Brazil). Their death count of 101,714 (population 67.4 million) is the eighth highest reported deaths in the world (behind U.S., Brazil, Mexico, India, UK, Italy and Russia). Still, it is less than the UK with 127,557 dead in a population of 66.8 million or Italy with 117,633 deaths in a population of 60.3 million. Yesterday they reported for France 44K new cases. They appear to have lost control of the situation. The new case count for Spain is 21K on 2/19, for Germany it is 31K and Russia remains at 8K (not that I particularly trust the Russian figures). The U.S. (population 331.4 million), which has never gotten the virus under control, had 55K new cases yesterday, which is an improvement over last week. Our high was 300K new cases on 2 January. This is in contrast to places like China (29 cases), Japan (4,973 and on the rise), South Korea (731, same as last week), Taiwan (2), Vietnam (9), Singapore (14), Australia (20) and New Zealand (2).
The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 cases forty-two weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of today, 10:20 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE
……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….46,209……46,869……1,097 Arlington, VA……………..237,521..….14,697…….14,861…..…249 Alexandria VA……………160,530……11,348…….11,491..……133 Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795.…..73,751…….74,708..…1,064 Falls Church, VA…………..14,772.………406………..415……..….9 Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574..………532……….539…….….18 Loudoun County, VA….…406,850……26,379……26,795……..274
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011……43,368…….43,957……..480 Manassas…………………..41,641..…….4,242…..…4,278…….…46 Manassas Park………….…17,307….…..1,177…….1,184………..12
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……10,560…..10,789…….….72 Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144…….1,961…….2,004…….…22 Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……68,377…..68,945……1,501 Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……80,598…..81,523…..1,428 Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…..383,605…388,358…..6,405
This is a 1% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 1.65%. This last week there were 47 new fatalities reported out of 4,753 new cases. This is a mortality rate of 0.99%. The population known to have been infected is 7.24% or one confirmed case for every 14 people. The actual rate of infection may be higher, perhaps as much as four times higher. I don’t have a report of how many people have been vaccinated in this DC area, but I have heard that half the U.S. has already gotten their first shot. So we are certainly looking at 50-60% who have had their first shot (I have had both of mine) and we are looking at 60-70% of the DC area having either been infected or vaccinated.
Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville, Liberty University (LU) at Lynchburg and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. Most of them were emptied out due to Thanksgiving and the Christmas holidays. Most of these universities went back in session in mid-January, except for UVA, which started its sessions at the beginning of February. I do not report on places like William and Mary (W&M) and Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU) as they are located in or near major population centers.
Harrisonburg, VA (pop. 54K) is reporting 6,377 cases (6,305 last week) and 94 deaths, while Rockingham County (pop. 81K), where the town resides, is reporting 6,572 cases (6,477 last week) and 104 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located.
Charlottesville, VA (pop. 47K) has reported 3,944 cases (3,936 last week) and 55 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA (pop. 109K), where the town resides, has reported 5,555 cases (5,448 last week) and 82 deaths. This is where UVA is located. One notes with similar populations the comparison between Harrisonburg/Rockingham vs Charlottesville/Albemarle.
For UVA (https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker), after peaking at 229 new cases on 2/16, they had imposed new restrictions. The number of cases dropped precipitously and they partially eased up the restrictions. This Monday (4/19) there were 10 new cases. It does show what can be done with quick reaction and actual lock-down procedures. They are also starting to vaccinate the students there.
Lynchburg (pop. 82K), the home of Liberty University, has reported 7,465 cases (7,415 last week) cases and 145 deaths.
Further south, Montgomery County, VA (pop. 99K) has reported 9,140 cases (9,021 last week) and 88 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.
I do report the population, number of cases and number of deaths for each of these areas. This is because this is somewhat of a “laboratory-like” situation where you have four universities of 23K to 36K students located in rural areas of around 100K population. They do have different rates per capita in cases and in deaths.
Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had 1,236 new cases yesterday. Last week it as 2,048 cases. Twelve weeks ago it was 4,707. For a long time, it pretty much ran 1,000 cases a day, neither going up or going down.
Dare County, North Carolina (pop. 37K), a beach area in the outer banks, has 2,054 cases (2,026 last week) and 9 deaths.
Well, the European Union’s (EU) top diplomat is now saying that “It is more than 150,000 Russian troops massing on the Ukrainian borders and in Crimea.” This is an increase from the 93,000 figure being bandied around last week.
Not sure of the source for his figures, perhaps from Ukraine.
Anyhow, 150K vs Ukraine’s 255K? Starting to look serious.
Last month Admiral Phillip Davidson, Indo-Pacific Command, said that “I worry that they’re [China] accelerating their ambitions to supplant the United States and our leadership role in the rules-based international order. They’ve long said they want to do that by 2050, I’m worried about them moving that target closer. Taiwan is clearly one of their ambitions before that, and I think the threat is manifest during this decade. In fact, in the next six years.”
Now, I don’t know exactly what he meant by that statement, but I now see some buzz about China invading Taiwan in the next six years. For example: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N7TbBZlCTdg. Note that Gen. Jack Keene does not actually say that they will be invading Taiwan in six years.
Note that Admiral John Aquilino “…disagreed with the outgoing Indo-Pacom commander Adm Philip Davidson’s recent comments that China could attempt to attack and take over Taiwan as soon as six years from now.”
Anyhow, is this really likely? I am going to briefly discuss the subject in two posts, this post focused on the “wherefores and why” of such an operation and a later post on the doing an actual invasion.
A few caveats: 1) I am no China expert, 2) I have never been involved is gaming or analyzing the defense of Taiwan, 3) I have no real “insider” knowledge of the subject at hand, and 4) I am not an economist.
I do find it a little difficult to believe that the Chinese, whose economy is heavily dependent on trade, is going to do something that would seriously disrupt this trade. The economy is 20 percent dependent on “Exports of good and services.” Their five major trading partners are the U.S., EU. Japan, S. Korea and Taiwan (!!!). The 2018 figures show total trade of 4,107.1 billion. Of that the U.S. makes up 583.3 (14%), the EU makes up 573.08 (14%), Japan makes up 303.0 (7%), Hong Kong makes up 286.5 (7%), South Korea makes up 280.2 (7%), Taiwan makes 199.9 (5%), Australia makes up 136.4 (3%) and Vietnam makes up 121.9 (3%). Other trade partners account for around 40% percent of the total. Almost all of it must be transported by sea or air. Overland trading partners to China are limited primarily to Russia (84.2), North Korea and Mongolia, and places like Vietnam (121.9), Laos, Thailand, Burma, Thailand, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and nominally Afghanistan and of course, the subcontinent of Pakistan, India and Nepal via Tibet (India is 84.3). Only three of these places is listed as among their top 20 trading partners (Vietnam, India and Russia, which make up 7% of their trade, assuming they were doing it all overland).
Now, the question is whether or not their would be a full economic blockade. The international response was tepid when Russia seized Crimea. But seizing Taiwan is a whole lot bigger bite (24 million vice 2.4 million). Certainly they will loose the trade with Taiwan and the trade with the U.S., and maybe South Korea, Japan and EU. As taking Taiwan is almost invariably a “hot war” scenario, hard to see how things would continue as business as normal. Added to that, the U.S. Navy has absolutely superiority in the deep seas, so the U.S. could establish an effective blockade (See: U.S. Fleet versus Chinese Fleet | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org))
So as a minimum, we are probably looking at China losing 60% to 80% of its trade. This is at least 12-16% of its economy. As things in economies tend to ripple (like local consumer spending and services) then the potential economic impact on China is very significant.
Are they really looking to destroy their trade in the next six years? It will have a big impact on their economy. Trade embargoes tend to drag on for a while. After the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre, the trade embargoes were limited, and by the mid-1990s China there was no clear long-term impact. But, the trade impact of directly invading Taiwan would probably be worse than Tianamen Square, and it would involve direct military engagement with one or more of its major trading partners.
Added to that, around 60% of their oil is imported. This is done by sea. We could also interdict that. Now, their neighbor Russia does have oil, so this can be partially compensated for over time.
So, by embargo and even more effectively, by naval interdiction (which is certainly within our capability), we could possibly temporarily shut down 80% of their trade and 60% of their oil. If that was the case, then we are probably looking at something more like a 30-40% decline in their GDP. This depressed economy that could continue for several years.
When economies stagnate or decline, governments often get overthrown. Is this something they are willing to risk for the sake of taking Taiwan?
So the big question is: Is taking Taiwan so important to the current leadership of China that they were willing to take the hit and the risk that goes with it?
I have done four posts on the game maps for the upcoming Advanced Squad Leader (ASL) module Prokhorovka!. I have not been involved in the developing the game, but found the effort worthwhile and interesting. What I was hoping to get back from those posts were comments on the game maps themselves, what was done right and well, and more importantly, what was not done right or needed to be corrected. So far, I have not gotten any comments on the game maps. I have provided some of my own to the designers, and in the case of the Storozhevoye map, it was re-worked before I posted it.
So anyhow, for the sake of our game designers, could we get some comments please.
Colorized picture from California, 1918. Source: reddit
This is weekly update number 54 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased to 6,734 new cases. There were 5,615 new cases last week. Twelve weeks ago it was 18,934 new cases.
Almost all of Europe is still struggling with controlling the spread of the disease. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, reported 13K new cases for yesterday. The UK looks like it has brought it under control with 3K new cases yesterday. Its high was 68K new cases on 8 January. France now has reported more cases of Coronavirus than the UK or Russia, making them the fourth highest in the world (after U.S., India and Brazil). Their death count of 99,639 (population 67.4 million) is the eighth highest reported deaths in the world (behind U.S., Brazil, Mexico, India, UK, Italy and Russia). Still, it is less than the UK with 127,407 dead in a population of 66.8 million or Italy with 115,088 deaths in a population of 60.3 million. Yesterday they reported for France 39K. They appear to have lost control of the situation. The new case count for Spain is 6K, Germany is 29K and Russia is 8K (not that I particularly trust the Russian figures). The U.S. (population 331.4 million), which has never gotten the virus under control, had 78K new cases yesterday. This is worse than last week but an improvement from the high of 300K new cases on 2 January. This is in contrast to places like China (25 cases), Japan (3,449 and on the rise), South Korea (731 and also on the rise), Taiwan (4), Vietnam (9), Singapore (14), Australia (21) and New Zealand (2).
The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 cases forty-one weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of today, 11:20 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE
……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….45,328…..46,209………1,088 Arlington, VA……………..237,521..….14,464……14,697…………249 Alexandria VA……………160,530……11,100……11,348…………130 Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795.…..72,390……73,751………1,055 Falls Church, VA…………..14,772.………402……….406………..….9 Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574..………527……….532………….18 Loudoun County, VA….…406,850……25,693……26,379………..273
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011……42,552……43,368………..477 Manassas…………………..41,641..…….4,200……..4,242……….…45 Manassas Park………….…17,307….…..1,176……..1,177…………12
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……10,332……10,560……..….72 Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144…….1,916……..1,961…………22 Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……67,505……68,377…….1,493 Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……79,286……80,598…….1,415 Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…..376,871…..383,605…….6,358
This is a 2% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 1.66%. This last week there were 57 new fatalities reported out of 6,734 new cases. This is a mortality rate of 0.85%. The population known to have been infected is 7.15% or one confirmed case for every 14 people. The actual rate of infection may be higher, perhaps as much as four times higher. I don’t have a good report of how many people have been vaccinated in this DC area, but I gather we are nearing 50% who have had their first shot (I have had both of mine). So we are looking at 50-70% of the DC area having either been infected or vaccinated.
Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville. Liberty University (LU) at Lynchburg and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. Most of them were emptied out due to Thanksgiving and the Christmas holidays. Most of these universities went back in session in mid-January, except for UVA, which started its sessions at the beginning of February. I do not report on places like William and Mary (W&M) and VCU as they are located in or near major population centers.
Harrisonburg, VA (pop. 54K) is reporting 6,305 cases (6,246 last week) and 95 deaths, while Rockingham County (pop. 81K), where the town resides, is reporting 6,477 cases (6,404 last week) and 103 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located.
Charlottesville, VA (pop. 47K) has reported 3,936 cases (3,895 last week) and 55 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA (pop. 109K), where the town resides, has reported 5,448 cases (5,348 last week) and 82 deaths. This is where UVA is located.
For UVA (https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker), after peaking at 229 new cases on 2/16, they had imposed new restrictions. The number of cases dropped precipitously and they partially eased up the restrictions. This Monday (4/12) there were 13 new cases. It does show what can be done with quick reaction and actual lock-down procedures.
Lynchburg (pop. 82K), the home of Liberty University, has reported 7,415 cases (7,275 last week) cases and 144 deaths.
Further south, Montgomery County, VA (pop. 99K) has reported 9,021 cases (8,896 last week) and 88 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.
I do report the population, number of cases and number of deaths for each of these areas. This is because this is somewhat of a “laboratory-like” situation where you have four universities of 23K to 36K students located in rural areas of around 100K population. They do have different rates per capita in cases and in deaths.
Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had 2,048 new cases yesterday. Last week it as 1,434 cases. Eleven weeks ago it was 4,707. For a long time, it pretty much ran 1,000 cases a day, neither going up or going down.
Dare County, North Carolina (pop. 37K), a beach area in the outer banks, has 2,026 cases (2,012 last week) and 8 deaths.
